Weak Stock Prices Fueled 2015, 2018 Buybacks, M&A
BofA: Weaker stock prices were behind the jump in share buybacks and M&A spending in 2015 and 2018. https://t.co/zOxaox8YSB
Energy Gains From Multiples; Other Sectors Now Cheaper
WEI LI @BlackRock: Energy's surge has come almost all from multiple expansion... Tech, Discretionary, Financials are now wayy cheaper than they were on Dec 31st https://t.co/N3mpO9RuZr
Tech Forward P/E Near Long‑Term Median Since 1995
S&P 500 Expanded Tech Forward P/E Ratio.. right near its long-term median since 1995 @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/gRuj8dp3hU
Heatwave’s Record Area Equals Size of Greenland
It's not just a swath of all-time March record highs... it's the size of greenland https://t.co/oliOqKe7PB
Record Warm Temperatures Already Hitting Before Peak Heat
Still a couple hours to go until the real highs temps, and already a boatload of record warm temps #natgas $UNG $NG_F @SPPorg @MISO_energy https://t.co/y7l62yB61C
Short‑Term Oil Volatility Secures Decades of Market Stability
Markets are too focused on the near-term challenges from higher oil prices. The real trade-off for investors is 4 to 6 weeks of instability, paying off 50 years of stability in oil markets, supply chains, and geopolitics. Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/ixJHl4Cw5f
Tech and Financial P/E Ratios Dip Below April 2025 Levels
More from @DualityResearch... Tech & Financials P/E ratios now below their April 2025 closing levels https://t.co/dHpAkDVnQw
S&P 500's Top Ten Dominate
GS: Concentration of S&P 500 market cap and earnings in the 10 largest index constituents... jaws are clamping down a bit https://t.co/UX5qVWlYho
Tech Giants Face 20‑57% Pullbacks From 52‑Week Peaks
Current Mag 7+ drawdowns from 52wk highs... $NVDA -19% $GOOGL -14% $MSFT -31% $AAPL -14% $AMZN -21% $META -25% $TSLA -26% $AVGO -25% $ORCL -57% $NFLX -32% $AMD -25% $PLTR -27% @finviz_com https://t.co/5XhlWNrFKR
Broad After-Hours Rally Lifts Major ETFs
After-hours: $SPY +1.0% $QQQ +0.9% $RSP +0.9% $IWM +1.7% $EFA +1.3% $EEM +1.8% $TLT +0.5% $IBIT +1.0% @finviz_com https://t.co/H1dLfRam9i
S&P 500 Hits Bottom 15 Days After Geopolitical Shock
Historically, the S&P 500 bottoms 15 trading days after a geopolitical event begins DB. @augurinfinity @soberlook https://t.co/j2yKbwkAig https://t.co/9G1EyxjbxR
S&P up 35% From April Low; ETFs Post Strong Gains
The S&P 500 remains +35% from its April low... the Gain from 52wk low heat map... In the last year: $SPY +16.4% $QQQ +22.1% $RSP +11.0% $IWM +19.4% $VEU +20.6% https://t.co/tSe8pBORDA
Energy Sector Hits 21 All‑Time High Records This Year
The S&P 500 energy sector has reached all-time highs 21 times this year. @augurinfinity @soberlook https://t.co/j2yKbwkAig https://t.co/E7GNUI7Pz3
Treasury ETF Faces Near-Worst 3‑Week Drop Since 2022
$GOVT Treasury ETF down 2.2% last 3 weeks... that's almost its worst plunge since March 2022... which was a historic drop... @stockcharts https://t.co/AR2FifcXyx
XLK Tech ETF Hits Six‑month Low, 12% Drawdown
$XLK tech ETF aims for its lowest close in more than 6 months... look at that gap @stockcharts A 12% drawdown.. https://t.co/WnAoCjYRPP
RBOB Futures Signal $4.10 AAA Gas Price Soon
$3.19 RBOB gasoline futures imply $4.10 AAA average gas price in a couple weeks https://t.co/7IwQpsyBoY
US Stocks Dip After Europe Closes, Timing Matters
$SPY -0.3% $VGK Europe -0.9% (don't compare S&P 500 futures to the European indexes this morning... US stocks plunged after the European close yesterday... timing difference) @finviz_com https://t.co/KJVqqbxvMc
Card Spending Rises 5% YoY, Gas Spikes 14%
BofA: Total card spending was up 4.9% y/y in the week ending Mar 14 while total card ex gas spending was also up a solid 4.3% y/y ... gas spending +14.4% YoY https://t.co/wW3Jif21Sp
World Portfolio Shows Limited Drawdowns Amid High Inflation
GS: So far, the drawdown for the world portfolio has been limited, especially compared to stagflationary shocks World portfolio 1-year drawdowns (yellow shading denotes periods with US inflation above 3% and rising) https://t.co/Dv0BimDxGJ
Gold Approaches February Low, Near Bear Market Threshold
Gold within striking distance of its February nadir as well... not far from bear market territory https://t.co/anEt7yJTiQ
Brent Surges, Outpacing WTI; Gold, Silver Plummet
Brent soars 6%... now $16-$17 above WTI... Gasoline futures jump another 8.5 cents... Gold and silver destroyed https://t.co/qLglGU9Cbr
Broad Market Slides, Energy Sector Bucks the Trend
$SPY -0.1% $IWM -0.6% $VEU -0.8% $GLD -3.2% $IBIT -1.3% $USO -1.1% $XLE +0.6% https://t.co/iZ5UFBuvtj
Dollar Index Slides 1% From Weekly High
US Dollar Index $DXY $USD $UUP now 1% off the week's high.. back-to-back bearish sessions @stockcharts https://t.co/hy3tIXMCbo
RBOB Gasoline Futures Near Last Week’s Spike High
RBOB gasoline futures $3.12 - that's very close to the spike high Sunday night last week https://t.co/x2eJ04zPio
Oil Hitting $125 Could Reshape Global Economy
Oil prices climbing to $125 could shift the global economic outlook – Morgan Stanley’s Seth Carpenter @seekingalpha https://t.co/W6t7v236nu
FMS Investors Hit Peak Commodity, EM Equity Overweights
BofA: In March, FMS investors were 34% net overweight commodities, the most since Apr'22. Net 53% were overweight emerging market equities, the highest since Feb’21. https://t.co/g0RUiBm0cN
AI Will Slash Service Costs to Near Zero
Everyone talks about AI taking jobs... ...Hardly anyone talks about the price collapse coming to services. Legal help Financial advice Tutoring Software development Medical diagnostics Design Many things that cost thousands of $ today could become nearly free. https://t.co/Kr5quDRfV2
Stocks Typically Bottom Five Months Before GDP Rebounds
As recession fears mount, remember that stocks bottom ~5 months before GDP inflects. JPMAM https://t.co/R8swcw5iFp
Vanguard Predicts 4.8% Annual Return for US Large Caps
Vanguard forecasts US large caps to return 4.8% annually over the next decade. Large-cap growth: 3.9% https://t.co/THci6XvvJc
S&P 500 Breadth Deteriorates, Stocks Lag Behind Index
S&P 500 breadth is terrible... (Market Breadth measures the performance gap between the S&P 500 Index and its median stock relative to their 52-week highs.) GS https://t.co/OLhF6yugXH
Energy Leads YTD; Financials and Bitcoin Lag
Brent & WTI crude oil leading YTD, Energy strong, gold hanging in there Financials & bitcoin weakest https://t.co/B5BLF2EwNT
S&P 500 P/E Drops as Earnings Climb, Prices Stall
GS: The S&P 500 P/E multiple has declined as prices have moved sideways alongside rising earnings https://t.co/igjAW12exM
Growth or Oil Shock Could Cripple S&P 500
GS: A moderate growth shock could see the S&P 500 drop to 6300, while a severe oil supply shock could trigger a 19% decline to 5400. https://t.co/87Poznn4vR
10% Brent Rise Lifts SXXP EPS Growth 2%
GS Europe: A 10pp rise in Brent boosts SXXP annual EPS growth by 2pp, but lower growth would be an offset https://t.co/9uumqz15iG
2022 Marks Strong Earnings Revisions for STOXX Europe 600
Surprising..2022 was one of the best recent years in terms of upward earnings revisions for the STOXX Europe 600 GS https://t.co/6EHs3OPXa8
Hawkish Rate Shift Triggers Lower Growth Expectations
GS: A hawkish rate move has coincided with a decline in the market's pricing of economic growth https://t.co/JO5RIgmjDP
S&P 500 Near 50% Concentration with AI, Space Titans
S&P 500 Concentration Approaching 50%.. if Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are added. Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YBjnkn0aXw
US Energy Spending Share Drops Among Consumers
The share of energy-related consumer spending has declined in the US. @soberlook WFC @augurinfinity https://t.co/UrUf2APJn5 https://t.co/4k9Hw8tcSW
US Recession Odds Surge to 32%, Highest in 3 Months
US recession chance jumps to 32%.. highest in more than 3 months (and consider there's less time for it to happen in this market) @kalshi https://t.co/rx3rkIwTm6 https://t.co/jCSx2ZLeuK
Market Predicts AAA US Gas Price Hitting $4 by Month‑end
The market thinks the AAA average US gas price will tag $4 by the end of the month $UGA $RB_F @kalshi https://t.co/kwTVTrGRRG https://t.co/L7SpkLzJR4
S&P 500 Hits Year’s Worst Close, Down 4.5%
S&P 500's worst close of the year... lowest since late November -4.5% from the January record high https://t.co/kASRYfc9MR
XHB Endures Sharpest 9‑Day Drop Since 2022
Homebuilders $XHB worst 9-day selloff since June 2022 -13% since the first of the month. The housing market sucks. @stockcharts https://t.co/wJDyxPUMdv
Quarter of US Stocks Hit 52‑week Highs Today
There's actually a pretty decent list of S&P 500 52wk highs... bunch of food/ag, chemicals, refiners @stockcharts 1-in-4ish US stocks are up today https://t.co/ebgPXxwKyU
Rate‑Hike Pricing Hits S&P, Small‑Caps
As the front part of the curve moves closer toward pricing in Fed rate hikes, SPX is down just 1.2%... and the Russell 2000 isn't getting killed $SPY $IWM https://t.co/ITSA3q3sjN
Used Car CPI Falls, Yet Manheim Index Climbs
Used car CPI down in February, but the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was up last month @augurinfinity https://t.co/pjEOxqNXf1
Nasdaq Climbs, Tech Leads Ahead of Nvidia AI Event
Nasdaq up this month as tech leads... ahead of $NVDA GTC AI next week... more on this to come from me on @stockcharts today https://t.co/IlsIu73lFb
Seasonal Blend Adds 25¢; Limited Further Gas Rise
25 cents of the 65-cent surge in retail gasoline prices was due to the usual seasonal switch to the summer RBOB blend... ...and if futures hold here, we are only looking at another 10-15 cents of pump-price upside $UGA $GASO...
Job Growth Holds Steady, More Sectors Accelerating
BofA: Average job growth to start the year remains consistent with 4Q levels despite a soft February. Notably, more sectors have accelerated than decelerated. https://t.co/PWt8NmBjL8
WTI Oil Bounces Between $82‑$92 Since Monday
Ex the plunge yesterday afternoon, WTI crude oil has ranged from $82 to $92 since mid-Monday https://t.co/B3lICn2XOe
USO Gaps Remain Unfilled, Signaling Potential Bullish Move
$USO.. don't count oil out yet... didn't even fill the gap.. could be a bullish sign...+6% from the day's low @stockcharts More from me: https://t.co/AEHbNDK3Qe https://t.co/329u34lpLv