Strong Economic Data and Peace Hopes Cut Recession Odds
Solid eco data released this morning.. war resolution hopes... much lower recession odds @kalshi https://t.co/rx3rkIwTm6 https://t.co/5VMb1dBm0q
Dollar Index Stalls Near 100.5, Reverses Lows
The US Dollar Index $USD $DXY failed at 100.50.. but finished off the lows today.. part of my Q2 intermarket outlook on @stockcharts https://t.co/qdLp18p3Jz https://t.co/XJ3rTFsHGI
Credit-Derivative Trading Hits Record Volumes, Says OG Markets
Credit-derivative trading volumes have surged to record highs. The OG prediction markets @markets via @augurinfinity https://t.co/hAxDHk0zOC https://t.co/9es8129em1
S&P 500 Approaches
Well, the S&P 500 came within 1% of the 38.2% Fibo.. More from me on @stockcharts... https://t.co/qdLp18p3Jz https://t.co/ZHuf3ajHqq
Bottoms Form When Everyone Dismisses Below 200‑DMA
Market bottoms tend to occur when everyone starts telling you that nothing good happens below the 200dma $STUDY $SPX https://t.co/Nx5cZTCFrv
SpaceX Preps IPO with Analyst Day, Data Center Tour
SpaceX is said to plan analyst day, data center tour amid IPO preparations @seekingalpha @wallsthorizon @christinelshort https://t.co/dgH1iq69mo
Crucial Final Half‑hour After SPY Rally, Retreat
Feels like an important final half hour here.. given yesterday's rally and this afternoon's retreat $SPY @stockcharts https://t.co/87IFBBks6S
US Equities Modestly up, Japan ETF Leads Gains
$SPY +0.4% $IWM +0.5% $EWJ +2.5% $EEM +0.5% $TLT +0.2% $USO -2.5% $IBIT +1.1% $GLD +0.7% https://t.co/vAMCPhUunR
Clients Dump All but SMID Caps, Energy ETFs Surge
BofA Securities Equity Client Flow Trends Clients sold everything except SMID caps last week Biggest Energy ETF inflows since the start of Russia Ukraine war vs record Energy single stock outflows Buybacks by corp. clients decelerated wk/wk https://t.co/1GiRZIhmiM
Supermarket Inflation Drops to 2.3% YoY, up 48
BofA Nielsen: Supermarket inflation fell to 2.3% YoY in March +47.9% on the 7yr stack https://t.co/Jlz9FUMWAG
Risk Assets Surge as Iran Conflict Outlook Impro
BofA: Risk assets rallied today on the potential resolution of the Iran war. President Trump stated that the US “won’t be there” to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz Oil prices are less enthusiastic https://t.co/qqPBVmhvPG
Mortgage Rate Surge Undermines Two-Year Affordability Gains
GS Housing Affordability Index ticks down after 2+ years of gains Mortgage rates hit six-month highs, reversing recent affordability gains https://t.co/Czxstb76r8
Young Tech Unemployment Aligns with Overall Tech Rates
GS: Unemployment Among Young Tech Workers Has Fallen Back in Line With Unemployment for All Tech Workers https://t.co/oAVQfwTaF4
Info, Services, Education, Finance Top AI Adoption Leaders
GS: Information, Professional Services, Education, and Finance and Insurance Establishments Continue to Lead AI Adoption https://t.co/2H8aj6AfFx
Just 9% Use AI Now, 22% Plan Soon
GS: 8.9% of Firms Are Using Artificial Intelligence in Their Regular Business Functions (Flat From February); 22.3% Expect to Use AI In the Next 6 Months https://t.co/ffi1I3e8ba
Energy Sector Posts Second‑best Quarter Ever versus Market
The S&P 500 energy sector had its 2nd-best quarter relative to the broader market on record. @augurinfinity https://t.co/AVJYMyYzGn https://t.co/2HEDAj7UkT
IT Sector's Forward P/E Aligns with Market
The forward P/Es of the IT sector and the overall market have nearly converged. @augurinfinity https://t.co/AVJYMyYzGn https://t.co/F33svpKEq0
March: Stocks Slide, Oil Soars, Bitcoin Modest Rise
$SPY -4.99% in March (total return) $USO oil +55.4% $IBIT bitcoin +3.3% I tried to fumble together a few words about it all: https://t.co/M99CIccdiZ https://t.co/NIF1PedJWs
Bonds Beat Stocks YTD, AGG Shows Small Alpha
YTD... stocks $SPY -7.1% Bonds $AGG -0.2% Not a perfect zig-zag, but certainly some alpha in $AGG https://t.co/IWkDvMCo0x
2026 Real Income Growth Slips to 1.7%, Low-Income Lag
GS: We Now Forecast Only 1.7% Real Income Growth in 2026, With Significant Underperformance Among Lower-Income Households https://t.co/fOdqPIkwQw
2026 Global Growth Forecast Slips Further Below Consensus
GS: Our 2026 Global Growth Forecast Has Declined Further Below Consensus After Last Week’s Commodity Price Forecast Upgrades https://t.co/lS1nu7BGIq
Global Stocks Experience Biggest Sell‑Off in Nearly a Year
Global stocks saw largest equity selling in almost a year – Goldman Sachs Prime @seekingalpha https://t.co/acrlK2Ws65
ACWI Approaches Worst Monthly Drop Since 2020
The stock market $ACWI is very close to its worst month since March 2020 -9.0% https://t.co/1hZc6AgZRS
Big Tech Slide Drags S&P 500 Down 16% YTD
Mag 7 Malaise: What Big Tech’s Slide Means for the S&P 500 $SPY My Monday $MAGS musings on @stockcharts ... which is now -16.4% YTD https://t.co/hrMFx68w4r https://t.co/5qnmDHeO0y
SPLV Hits YTD High, Best Day Since November
$SPLV vs $SPHB ... fresh YTD high... nearly the best day since last November https://t.co/4JIqIxenbR
Nvidia's Valuation Drops to S&P 500 Parity After a Decade
$NVDA Nvidia valuation falls to S&P 500 parity for first time in over a decade @seekingalpha GS https://t.co/uI914KMyKJ
Lower Rates Lift Yield‑Sensitive S&P Sectors, Not Small‑Caps
Lower rates today helping yield-sensitive S&P 500 sectors.. but not the small caps... 8/11 SPX sector ETFs up with the index -0.15% https://t.co/1d07AUB0cD
Murphy USA Leads Consumer Discretionary Gains in March
#gasprices Murphy USA is the best performing consumer discretionary stock in March $MUSA @seekingalpha https://t.co/mTVwrMbUa0
Oppenheimer Names Nvidia, Broadcom, Monolithic Power, Marvell Top Chip Picks
Nvidia, Broadcom, Monolithic Power, and Marvell are Oppenheimer's top chip picks $NVDA $AVGO @seekingalpha https://t.co/ydlV0xyp9W
Stagflation Squeezes Equities: Low Returns, High Volatility
Stagflation is a bad environment for equities, with low (real) returns and high volatility GS Europe https://t.co/QhgQfFdqYh
Stagflation Threat Returns as Euro Growth Slows, Inflation Rises
GS Europe: Stagflation risk re‑enters the debate. We have downgraded GDP growth in 2026 by around 0.7pp in the Euro area We have raised our end-2026 inflation forecast by around 1.4pp in the Euro area https://t.co/E3drISW5P1
Dollar Poised to Surge Toward 105.50 Target
Dollar seems like it wants to rip... 105.50 target if so $USD $UUP $DXY @stockcharts https://t.co/UiwZRpV53z
NVDA Slump Could Erase $4 Trillion Market‑cap Club
If $NVDA has a bad week, the $4 trillion market cap club could be a party of 0 https://t.co/L42ydj32gK
Low 5-Year Forward Inflation Gives Fed Flexibility
5-Year, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate very low.. Fed has some wiggle room here @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/7ebc7VndLU
Implied Volatility Peaks as Realized Remains Low on S&P 500
Massive gap between S&P 500 implied volatility (high) and realized volatility (low) Traders are girded https://t.co/WQAnDIXCuq
Kalshi Predicts WTI Oil Hitting $139 by Year‑end
How high will WTI oil get by the end of the year? @kalshi market says $139 https://t.co/d9FiMu2DQS https://t.co/2ac3ey45Us
Goldman Sachs Cuts TOPIX Targets on Oil Outlook
GS Japan TOPIX: We revise down 3/6/12M target to 3800/4000/4200 to reflect the latest oil price forecast https://t.co/UexBFWYIqt
XLI Industrials Near Support After 11% Drop
$XLI Industrials - worst S&P 500 sector ETF m/m... but coming into a support zone $153-$157? -11% from its February record high @stockcharts https://t.co/LSIQtTlpMK
One‑Year Inflation Swaps Hover Near 3%, No Panic
No major inflation scare yet... 1yr inflation swap only about 3%.. not alarming by historical trends Torsten at Apollo https://t.co/YfD4ihEjtb
Mag 7 ETF Lags While Russell 1000 Outperforms
YTD total returns: Mag 7 ETF $MAGS -15.9% Russell 1000 equal weight $EQAL +3.4% International stocks $VEU -0.9% @stockcharts https://t.co/smi2VwzbiW
Yield Spread Peaks, Prompting Duration Risk Exit
3m10y yield spread 71bps... highest since July 2022... time to step out on the duration-risk curve? $AGG https://t.co/ozSwbxzLA4
2012: Rare Generational Home‑Buying Opportunity via Peak Affordability
... and 2012 was a generational chance to buy a home... US Housing Affordability Index hit an all-time high then.. (moderate prices, low mortgage rates, recovering wages) @yardeni @realtors actually.. another @clementsmoney piece from me about that... https://t.co/PMNPDGiYEc https://t.co/zwLHFnQpRR
Mortgage Rates Have Surged Far Beyond 4.95%
4 years ago, we thought a 4.95% mortgage was steep. That was cute. #OTD from me on @ClementsMoney https://t.co/nU3mkGlWHf https://t.co/aecygolvLT
Past $90‑$100 Oil Deemed Normal, Now Sparks Panic
Pretty wild how WTI crude oil averaged $90-$100 from late 2010 to late 2014.. and everyone just assumed that was normal. Total freakout today... (even with significantly higher average and median hourly earnings) https://t.co/L6XCC4Wf8y
Gas Prices Near $4, Expected Spike to $4.20 Soon
Gas prices steady under $4, but I think the average will jump quickly to $4.20 by mid next week @gasbuddy @gasbuddyguy https://t.co/AWxp7hHZsD
2024 S&P 500 Slump Joins Rare Historic Lows
The S&P 500 -7% YTD Since 1983, only 2001, 2008, 2009, and 2020 had a worse return through March 27 https://t.co/ULDpN7L6wH
Nasdaq 100 P/E Drops Below Russell 2000 Valuation
Wow - Nasdaq 100 P/E now below that of the Russell 2000.. fractionally ... 24x GS https://t.co/L1wgeQ1E24
Fed Futures Show 28% Chance of October Hike
Fed Fund futures market is loose.. now just a 28% chance of a hike by October https://t.co/xszONB6nqL
Energy, Materials, Utilities, Consumer Staples Lead Gains; Tech, Communications Falter
$XLE $XLB $XLU $XLP nice gains this week $XLRE $XLV $XLI $XLY $XLF modest losses $XLK $XLC rekt @KoyfinCharts https://t.co/3l41610FAi
VIX Hits Highest Since 2025, Predicts 2.2% Rise
1-day $VIX highest since Tax Day 2025 33.5.. implying a 2.2% move by Monday's close https://t.co/VEUpmCMZmc