Homebuilders, Banks, Utilities, Materials, Europe Rally Amid QQQ Dip
This week: $QQQ -3.3% $VEU -0.2% $IJR +1.1% Homebuilders, regional banks, Utes, Materials, and Europe(!) nicely up last 5 days. https://t.co/5i4ZlLx6rI
Citi Holds S&P 500 Target Despite Iran Tensions and Pullback
Citi holds firm on S&P 500 target despite Iran tensions and the current market pullback ... the market won't bottom until the sellside slashes YE targets https://t.co/wcQjQH879W
Analysts Forecast 29% S&P 500 Rise in Year
Industry Analysts Project 29% Increase in S&P 500 Price Over the Next 12 Months @factset https://t.co/7KtJzSkyej
S&P 500 Earnings Set for Sixth Double‑digit Quarter
Q1 2026 S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow 13.0% YoY, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains. @factset https://t.co/9e3Ce7uvHP
Tech and Communications Services Lead Weakest Sectors This Week
Tech & Comm Services by far the weakest sectors this week so far @koyfincharts https://t.co/fvjDWdZzFu
Three-Year Bull Markets Often Last a Fourth Year
Bull markets that reach a third year typically extend into a fourth. @soberlook Fisher Investments https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/sBX0mRXRR7
AI Pressure Drags Credit, Software; Bonds Inch Higher
Mag 7, credit card stocks, software are getting whacked... AI has long knives out... $RSP -0.3% $MDY $IWM -0.4% $VEU +0.2% $AGG now up.. +0.1% https://t.co/EEjbRTBI25
Short‑Term Inflation Expectations Spike, Long‑Term Dip
UMich biggest sour swing since April 2025.. 1yr inflation expectations surge to 3.8%... but the long-term inflation outlook was down a tick https://t.co/jKnBGuulSH
Wells Fargo Forecasts Gold Surpassing $6,000 by Year‑end
Gold seen well above $6,000 by year-end despite recent struggles, Wells Fargo says $GLD @seekingalpha https://t.co/aUuFstZJDx
QQQ Posts Unusual 3.5%
$QQQ with a rare negative return over the last 6 months well, not that rare.. but 3.5% is material https://t.co/sPGVWoNt6b
US Stocks Dominate Top 10, Cover 63% Global Market
Weight in top 10 stocks: $VTI 32% USA (63% of the global stock market) $VEU 14% ex-USA (37% of the global stock market) https://t.co/1v1pdFpniW
Bluesky Activity Spikes Post-Musk, Then Wanes
Bluesky saw a surge in activity following Elon Musk’s political involvement in late 2024, but engagement has since declined. @soberlook The Update https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/SdRLZVcZMc
5‑7‑Year Treasurys Historically Yielded 6‑6.5%
Back in the day, on average, you could get 6-6.5% on 5-7yr Treasurys @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/rb6v4PeHGs
National Hurricane Center Expands Services Despite Budget Cuts
Great to see all these new National Hurricane Center features and services... I thought their budget was getting gutted?? I guess it all worked out. https://t.co/Pg10sCbvOn
Investors Underweight International as Market Shifts Toward 50/50 Split
Imagine if the global stock market reverted to 50/50 US/ex-US... doesn't seem like folks are positioned for it.. ...in today's environment, "we are bullish international" means having like a 10% allocatoin to it lol $EFA $EEM $ACWI $VEU https://t.co/bSBFac5qch
Just 28% Say It’s a Good Time to Job Hunt
Gallup: Only 28% of US employees now say it is a good time to find a quality job. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/u0BrFnPngN
XLF Poised for Six-Day Winning Streak
$XLF trying to sneak green.. would be a 6-day winning streak More from me: https://t.co/UKggIGLeI1 https://t.co/neQp5IrWeZ
AI‑heavy Sectors See Slower Wage Growth
DB: Sectors with higher AI adoption have shown a more significant deceleration in wage growth. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/a0GkxtUZTB
RBOB Futures at $2.21 Forecast $3.15 Pump Price
March 2027 RBOB gasoline futures $2.21, implying $3.15 at the pump by the winter https://t.co/TkEv0pc6Zf
Current S&P Dip Is Normal, Not Bearish
The S&P 500 is 5.9% from its 52-week high. The median S&P 500 stock drawdown is 16.6%. And that's very normal. Don't let anyone tell you it's somehow bearish or indicative of extra risk in the market. https://t.co/E1RyD8z4LQ
S&P Slumps While Broader Markets Gain 3% YTD
The S&P 500 is -3.4% YTD But everything else is up... US SMIDs, ex-US.. +2.5% to +3.7% https://t.co/8nTZBWpDKU
IG Index Spread Returns to Near‑Unchanged Level
The IG index spread of 84bps is now back near unchanged levels since February 27 https://t.co/44eACVJ587
S&P 500 Forward EPS Hits Record $332, SMIDs Surge
S&P 500 forward EPS a record high of $332 SMIDs also yodeling higher over the last six months @yardeni https://t.co/BfA01cKlKd
S&P 500 Stays Below 200‑Day Moving Average
4 days below the 200dma for the S&P 500 @stockcharts More thoughts from me: https://t.co/q4uxCqxeRV https://t.co/dXZykXt9ov
AI: The Biggest Cybersecurity Catalyst in Two Decades
AI presents most significant catalyst cybersecurity industry has experienced in 20 years: Wedbush @divestech @seekingalpha https://t.co/NNoN66CtQG
Core PCE Inflation Hits 2.93% YoY in February
GS: We estimate that the core PCE price index rose 0.32% in February (vs. 0.31% previously), corresponding to a YoY rate of +2.93%. https://t.co/qdzutjc5RO
Diesel Prices Fell Over 25% in Real Terms
Diesel was $7.25 in real dollars back in July 2008, $6.51 in June 2022 @jkempenergy .. $5.38 in real-time. I'd like to see @JeffWeniger work his magic on this chart https://t.co/u3Tn1K8vRc
Barclays Lifts 2026 S&P 500 Target to 7,650
Barclays raises 2026 year-end S&P 500 target to 7,650 despite Middle East, inflation risks https://t.co/UIix0xSpIM
VIX at 25 Signals Bearish Market Comfort
$VIX at 25 is pretty much right where the stock market bears want to see it (I posted an X article this morning for my subscribers about this) https://t.co/nM3ANvkYbo
May RBOB Price Drop Signals Lower National Average
May soon becomes the RBOB prompt.. it's $2.89... implying a $3.80-$3.85 national average (down from today's $3.99 level) https://t.co/0eD1CGzOZ5
Is XLF's Rally a Dead‑Cat Bounce or Bullish Bellwether?
$XLF vs $SPY ... is this just a dead-cat bounce? Or a bullish bank bellwether? I'll dig into it over at @stockcharts today... https://t.co/MhlcvVnB8k
SPY Up 16% YoY, Global & SMID Stocks Outperform
Liberation Day crash, a war with oil to $100... and $SPY is +16% YoY @stockcharts International stocks and SMIDs even better $VEU $VXF https://t.co/Gk0s6YgEPV
Big Tech Valuations Drop Below 20x Earnings
$MSFT now below 20x earnings... $AVGO 18x $NVDA 16x $META 17x out-year earnings estimates @finviz_com https://t.co/i1ijeByOv6
Broad Market Breadth: 60% of S&P
Good breadth today (if you're a bull) @stockcharts 60% of SPX names were up... $MDY $IJR $IWM higher https://t.co/pH2LtE4VaQ
Gold's 10-Day Decline Hits Record, Yet GLD Rises
Physical gold down 10 straight days... a record... but $GLD was up today by 0.03% @stockcharts https://t.co/VFPXaVWobA
Gen Z, Millennials Boost Discretionary Spending on Tech, Dining
BofAI: Gen Z and Millennials have seen the most improvement in discretionary spending, especially on electronics and restaurants https://t.co/lokfH0dJN0
Redbook Sales Jump 6.7% YoY, Spending Remains Strong
Redbook retail sales ... no sign of consumer spending stress yet +6.7% YoY WE March 21 https://t.co/8GFoXUdydC
Deutsche Bank Predicts US CPI Near 4% in May
Deutsche Bank forecasts US CPI to hit 3.81% in April and 4.02% in May. @soberlook https://t.co/EGLX7QmA3x https://t.co/R7pCnJYmkg
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts Higher Yet Remains Dovish
BofA: Naming the 2026 dots The distribution of dots shifted higher in March, but the voting members still lean dovish and expect to ease this year. https://t.co/Qklr1A2um1
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets 98% Below Normal
GS: We Estimate Based on Reported Vessel Counts that Average Daily Flows Through the Strait of Hormuz Are Down 98% From Their Normal Levels (4-Day Moving Average) https://t.co/af4DPzafNM
Asia's Jet Fuel Demand Crumbling, Oil Outlook Dims
GS: Increasing Evidence of Oil Demand Destruction, Especially in Asia and for Jet Fuel https://t.co/ZXj2aGuaMX
December 2026 PCE Inflation Projected at 3.1%
GS: We Now Expect December 2026 Headline PCE Inflation of 3.1%, 1pp Above Our Pre-War Forecast; Both Headline and Core PCE Could Peak Higher in a More Severe Risk Scenario https://t.co/sMwHyf6s7N
April Ranks Second-Best Month for S&P 500 Gains
Rubner Citadel: Since 1928, April has been the second-best month for S&P 500 returns, with an average gain of +1.3%. https://t.co/yFgPybpRBD
Oil Shocks Fail to Stubbornly Raise Inflation Expectations
GS: Over the Past 40 Years, Even Major Oil Price Shocks Did Not Leave Long-Lasting Effects on Consumer Inflation Expectations https://t.co/8naRIKCG9F
Commodity Price Surge to Add 0.35pp Core PCE by 2026Q
GS: We Estimate That the Boost from Commodity Price Increases to Year-Over-Year Core PCE Inflation Will Peak Around 0.35pp in 2026Q4 in Our Baseline Scenario https://t.co/e4Hp5utn1j
Rally Fades as Yields, Oil Surge, VIX Rises
The rally is fading fast. SPX up just 1.1% as yields and oil jump... VIX trying to go positive https://t.co/cD8Y5HTyQm
Oil Prices Retreat to Reaction Lows, Gasoline Dips
Oil sinking back toward those reaction lows... WTI $87 Brent $99 Gasoline futures down 36 cents https://t.co/68SjGUaFW0
Euro Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Since Oct 2023
Euro Area consumer confidence plunged by 4 points from a month earlier to -16.3 in March 2026, the lowest since October 2023 @teconomics https://t.co/pdxVAqEF0L
2‑Year Yield Slides to Session Low, Bears Struggle
Treasury bears tried to claw back after the 705am ET yield plunge, but the 2yr yield is back on the session lows... down 10bps to 3.81% https://t.co/Cq2pe8M3wf
EURUSD Continues Upward After Early Morning Spike
EURUSD has really been building on the initial spike higher shortly after 7am ET https://t.co/JXZcl7G8Dr