EEM Jumps 11% in Q2, Finds Support at $58
$EEM rose 11% to jumpstart Q2.. pulling back this morning. But I see nice support now at $58 https://t.co/FcpeEr3KWo
ADNOC CEO Says Strait of Hormuz Remains Secure
Sultan Al Jaber, the CEO of Adnoc, on the state of the Strait of Hormuz https://t.co/HM7Jf6Ut4i
Tariff Rollbacks and $120bn Refunds Ease Fuel Pain
BofA: Pain at the pump but relief at the ports Tariff rollbacks and a potential $120bn in refunds could cushion pain at the pump and provide meaningful economic stimulus. https://t.co/spAE1VFK5N
BofA Forecasts 10.7% YoY Q1 Earnings Growth
BofA: YoY earnings growth is expected to be steady in 1Q (+10.7%) ex. Energy and Finance. https://t.co/ZqJkJKzBML
2026 Q2 Brent/WTI Forecast Trimmed, Later Quarters Stable
GS: We Keep Our 2026Q3/Q4 Forecast Unchanged at $82/80 for Brent and $77/75 for WTI But Nudge Down Our 2026Q2 Forecast for Brent/WTI to $90/87
VIX May Have Shifted Trend—Implications Unclear
Has the $VIX broken its rate of trend? Does it matter? I mull it over.. @stockcharts https://t.co/pLhBGqVXTt https://t.co/IidONIUenY
Ratio to S&P 500 Drops Biggest Since March 2020
The ratio to the S&P 500 fell by the most since March 2020. @augurinfinity https://t.co/XhMLgDt7ZW https://t.co/5R6yaUbKVj
EQAL ETF Approaches All‑Time High
Believe it or not, but the average US stock ETF $EQAL is very close to an all-time high https://t.co/TYbu1dA6fR
Software Slumps While Emerging Markets Rally Strongly
Software a little sore today.. $PLTR off big. $TSLA lags among mega caps. $SMH +5.6%.. $EWY +9.7%... $EEM +5.3% https://t.co/Ax62G8RLpM
Overnight Volatility Fades, S&P Climbs 2.
An exciting overnight, but a snoozer daytime session... narrow S&P 500 range... +2.4% into the close @stockcharts https://t.co/LNYfv0dbGY
Fed Flags Rising Inflation, Labor Risks Amid Iran Conflict
Fed officials see higher risk in inflation and labor market, while the Iran war clouds outlook: FOMC minutes @seekingalpha https://t.co/38nIdN2Imk
2‑Year Yield Near Historic Tightness at +0.14%
The 2yr yield is currently just 14bps above the Fed Funds Rate That's historically tight - it has averaged +0.3ppts since 1976 @sonusvarghese https://t.co/lbr63DqekD
Ex‑US ETFs Surge After Hours Despite 8 Pm Close
Trading ended at 8pm ET, but look at some of these ex-US ETF numbers after-hours... $EWY +8% $EWT +5% $EEM +4.3% $EWJ +6.3% $INDA +4.6% https://t.co/rwvZfBLsrU
SPY Climbs Above 200‑DMA as Oil Plunges
$SPY back above its 200dma.. by a nice margin right now. Like I always say, nothing good happens below the 200dma... except market bottoms. WTI -16%, Brent -18% https://t.co/iY6pN0daWo
US Tech Hyperscaler Valuation Premium Declines
GS: The valuation premium of the US technology Hyperscalers has fallen S&P 500 12m forward P/E multiple https://t.co/29BVbVl8AT
BofA Predicts 0.3% Core Inflation, 1% CPI Rise
BofA: We expect core inflation to increase by 0.3% m/m in March We forecast a 1.0% m/m (0.99% unrounded) increase in headline CPI owing to a 10.6% m/m jump in energy prices. PCE should be cooler but after a hot start to...
Workers Transitioning to Jobs, Unemployment Declines, BofA Says
BofA: More workers have recently been moving into employment and fewer have been flowing into unemployment https://t.co/Xl6kLBsiMC
US PEG Ratio Diverges From Global Benchmark
GS: The PEG ratio between the US and the rest of the world has re-set https://t.co/jWxIsm2v9R
Tech's Relative Returns Hit 50-Year Low
GS: We have seen one of the weakest periods of relative returns for technology over the past 50 years Distribution of returns of World Tech vs. World ex. TMT, data since 1973 https://t.co/S5HpmcroXj
Investors Prefer Inflation Swaps Over Sketchy 1‑Year TIPS
Glad folks are finally using the inflation swap.. not the often-sketchy 1yr TIPS breakeven rate... remember this chart that made the rounds in March lol https://t.co/pHxDS0B0gu
Global Headline Inflation Now 3.3%, Core at 2.3%
GS: Our 2026 Global Headline Inflation Forecast Has Risen to 3.3% Since the Start of the War, While Our Global Core Inflation Forecast Has Increased More Moderately to 2.3% https://t.co/lqYe3mgu26
Market Hits First Genuine Buy Signal Since Liberation Day
The stock market has trigged its first ‘proper buy signal’ since Liberation Day – HSBC’s Kettner @seekingalpha https://t.co/RO8qGJrtNm
S&P 500 Posts First
S&P 500 first 3-day winning streak since mid-Feb.. still below the 200-day sma... but above the 200-day ema https://t.co/2husJVCbEJ
Wells Fargo Predicts Fed Rates Staying High Until 2026
Higher for longer: Wells Fargo expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% through 2026 @seekingalpha https://t.co/cSdOS8R4z6
Liquidity Emerges as Primary Market Stress Warning
GS: Global Markets Comment: Market Stress Monitor Temperature Check... seems like liquidity is the biggest red flag https://t.co/mR61tRz4DL
Clean Energy Stocks Outshine Oil: Technical Take
Think Oil Is the Only Energy Play? Think Again $XLE $USO My @stockcharts technical take on clean energy stocks... $ICLN $FAN $TAN https://t.co/fNGYwq5vMx https://t.co/AnqW7SYd3c
March Jobs Surge, Unemployment Drops to 4.2%
BofA Mar jobs: Spring in full bloom...Across the board strength...Jobs surged, but in part due to weather and strike payback All eyes were on the u-rate decline to 4.2%...Slower but still stable income growth...feast for the hawks https://t.co/Z4apZhQNN2
Busy Week Ahead: ISM, FOMC Minutes, PCE, CPI
ISM Services PMI tomorrow FOMC Minutes Weds PCE Price Index Feb Thurs CPI March Fri https://t.co/osn2U4OfYf
Oil Surges 11% as S&P Barely Moves
Oil $USO was +11.1% on Thursday The S&P 500 $SPY was +0.1% pretty interesting https://t.co/SRVwSOrwOW
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium Hits Two-Year High
The S&P 500's equity risk premium is at a 2-year high.. even with higher TIPS yields @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/T5y4c7SbGO
Energy Outperforms; Health Care and Staples Decline
Energy leads on the 1m, 3m, 6m zooms... Health Care & Staples have turned south recently @wisdomtreefunds https://t.co/vqQWQ5SYQV
AI‑risk Jobs See Rising Unemployment and Wage Gaps
GS: The Unemployment Rate and Wage Gaps Between Entry-Level and Experienced Workers Have Widened Much More in Occupations More Exposed to AI Substitution Risk https://t.co/NbW36l3165
High AI‑Substitution Jobs See Faster Employment Drops Post‑ChatGPT
GS: Since the Launch of ChatGPT, Industries and Occupations With High AI Substitution Scores Have Experienced Larger Declines in Employment and Increases in Unemployment on Average https://t.co/p4bc7W90KL
Easter Eggs Hit 10-Year Low at $0.46 Dozen
Eggs haven't been this cheap on Easter in at least 10 years $0.46/dozen wholesale https://t.co/ki6U8RlOzd
US and International Stocks Record Third‑Worst Year Start
US vs international stocks.. still the 3rd-worst start to a year in the last 30 @augurinfinity $SPY $VEU https://t.co/bv48hVPlK9
Analysts Predict S&P 500 EPS Surge to $320‑$373
Too bad there's no prediction market for S&P 500 CY EPS.. seems like just about everyone doesn't believe the current bottom-up estimates are anything close to reality... 2026 $320 2027 $373 @factset @kalshi https://t.co/b7iCflisq8
Inflation Ties Stocks and Bonds, Boosting Bond Yields
Inflationary regime... stocks & bonds moving together JPMAM While that means less diversification, it also means higher bond yields vs the 2010s.. when bonds zigged when stocks zagged... it's a trade-off. https://t.co/VNDHInIcmI
Long‑term Investing Is Essential for Wealth Growth
Go out a year or more, and it's clear why staying invested is key to building wealth JPMAM https://t.co/MTyltd1yyP
Immigration Deficit Lowers Job‑growth Breakeven Below 50k
Breakeven rate of job growth to keep the unemployment rate steady is probably under 50k... immigration (or lack thereof) is the driver.. JPMAM https://t.co/IwfJaneYQ3
Tech Giants Face 20%‑Plus Slumps From 52‑Week Peaks
Current Mag 7+ drawdowns from 52wk highs... $NVDA -16% $GOOGL -16% $MSFT -33% $AAPL -11% $AMZN -19% $META -28% $TSLA -28% $AVGO -24% $ORCL -58% $CRM -37% $NFLX -26% $AMD -19% $PLTR -28% $MU -22% $IBM -24% $V $MA $AXP -20% $LLY -17% @finviz_com https://t.co/ll0K5GSWGx
Yield to Maturity Drives 5‑Year Returns, 89% R²
Fixed income: The YTM matters greatly.. 89% r-squared in terms of determining your 5-year return JPMAM https://t.co/b6f4gSRgeA
Three Unicorn
A trio of monster unicorns... the S&P 500 top 10 could look a whole lot different by this time next year JPMAM https://t.co/vgHNRwbucP
Top 10 S&P 500 Stocks' P/E Drops to 23
The 10 largest S&P 500 stocks' P/E has fallen to 23.0x.. it was above 30 just a few months ago JPMAM https://t.co/MthUHSpayR
Job Growth at 53k Matches Breakeven for Stable Unemployment
GS: Our estimate of the underlying pace of job growth now stands at 53k, roughly in line with our estimate of the breakeven pace of job growth needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. https://t.co/FCJycyPkFU
Official Unemployment Falls, Broader Underemployment Climbs to 8%
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, but the U-6 underemployment rate rose to 8.0% https://t.co/3G8tKnf7pR
Equity Futures Slip Ahead of Jobs Data Release
Equity futures a little lower ahead of jobs report... they'll trade until 915am ET https://t.co/x9qe4wyzJv
Geopolitical Oil Spikes Usually Brief, Sometimes Linger on Markets
GS: Most historical oil spikes linked to geopolitical shocks had a temporary impact, but some weighed on equities and bonds for longer https://t.co/Vxa6K0Dhkc
Energy
GS: 10 charts we are watching: Goldilocks faces a Balanced Bear The energy shock results in a pickup in inflation as well as weaker growth and less policy easing After the bullish start to the year, our Risk Appetite Indicator declined but...
Payrolls Edge Above Forecast, Unemployment Holds Steady
GS: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 70k in March, slightly above consensus of +65k. The big data indicators we track were mixed in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.4% in March...
Brent Crude Futures Plunge Sharply This Week
Brent crude oil futures looking out a few months and beyond are down sharply in the past week @augurinfinity https://t.co/0xHk81TJYg https://t.co/VVmceseKBH