Peter Atwater

Peter Atwater

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Behavioral macro/markets; confidence cycles and U.S. equities.

EBay's Silence on GameStop Offer Is Puzzling
SocialMay 12, 2026

EBay's Silence on GameStop Offer Is Puzzling

Am kind of surprised that eBay didn't respond to the GameStop offer with a simple statement that read "Not even half attractive nor half reasonable."

By Peter Atwater
Virtue Bragging Erodes Leaders' Likability Among Subordinates
SocialMay 11, 2026

Virtue Bragging Erodes Leaders' Likability Among Subordinates

FWIW - Ironically, the more those at the very top extol their virtues the less likable they are likely to become to those at the bottom. Why? Because implicit in their virtues is a sense of extreme certainty and control those below...

By Peter Atwater
K‑Shaped Economy Goes Far Beyond Wealth and Spending
SocialMay 9, 2026

K‑Shaped Economy Goes Far Beyond Wealth and Spending

FWIW - What people think the K-Shaped Economy is is just the tip of what the K-Shaped Economy is all about. Wealth, incomes, and spending just scratch the surface.

By Peter Atwater
Why K‑Shaped Confidence Shapes Consumer Sentiment
SocialMay 8, 2026

Why K‑Shaped Confidence Shapes Consumer Sentiment

With consumer sentiment all over the map, I'd like to recommend a guidebook to help you better understand why K-Shaped confidence really matters. https://t.co/bdCrYjHZV7

By Peter Atwater
Card Volume Dip Linked to Reduced Airline Ticket Sales
SocialMay 8, 2026

Card Volume Dip Linked to Reduced Airline Ticket Sales

FWIW - I suspect some of the fall-off in card volume reflects a drop in plane ticket purchases given the rush we saw following all the threats of higher prices from the major carriers.

By Peter Atwater
Low‑Income Consumers Facing Cash Crunch, CEO Warns
SocialMay 7, 2026

Low‑Income Consumers Facing Cash Crunch, CEO Warns

"They’re literally running out of money at the end of the month,” Kraft Heinz Co. Chief Executive Officer Steve Cahillane said in an interview this week. “We’re seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they’re dipping into savings" https://t.co/DGHOd4fe9L

By Peter Atwater
Rising Markets Spur Push for Higher Capital Gains Taxes
SocialMay 7, 2026

Rising Markets Spur Push for Higher Capital Gains Taxes

The crowd won't like this but the more the market goes up, the more it encourages policymakers on both sides of the aisle to raise capital gains tax rates.

By Peter Atwater
Budget Airlines: A Distinct Leg of the K‑shaped Economy
SocialMay 7, 2026

Budget Airlines: A Distinct Leg of the K‑shaped Economy

Think of them not as budget carriers but as another group on the leg of our K-Shaped Economy...

By Peter Atwater
Semiconductor Returns So High They're Fully Conductors
SocialMay 6, 2026

Semiconductor Returns So High They're Fully Conductors

Semiconductors? With these kinds of returns, I am surprised the group should be called Fully conductors. There's nothing semi about them.

By Peter Atwater
Gas Surge Reinforces K‑Shape: Rich Forget, Poor Relive 2022
SocialMay 6, 2026

Gas Surge Reinforces K‑Shape: Rich Forget, Poor Relive 2022

Required reading from @talmonsmith on the K-Shaped consequences of the latest surge in gas prices. While those at the top have long forgotten 2022, for those at the bottom, it's deja vu all over again.

By Peter Atwater
AI Losers: Angry Anthems for the Disenchanted Bottom
SocialMay 6, 2026

AI Losers: Angry Anthems for the Disenchanted Bottom

Our late lunchtime garage band name - "AI Losers" - comes from the headlines. Current mood suggests that with some angry lyrics the group could be especially popular with those at the bottom of the K.

By Peter Atwater
Disney Claims Gas
SocialMay 6, 2026

Disney Claims Gas

*DISNEY SEES NO CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR DUE TO GAS PRICE Which begs the question, "What if Disney is the happiest place on earth for just those on the arm of the K?"

By Peter Atwater
K‑Shape Myth: Unequal Groups, Not Balanced Arms and Legs
SocialMay 6, 2026

K‑Shape Myth: Unequal Groups, Not Balanced Arms and Legs

When people talk about the K-Shaped Economy, they talk about its arm and leg. That characterization unknowingly suggests a reasonable equivalence in population between those on the arm and leg. Nothing could be further from the truth.

By Peter Atwater
AI Spending Frenzy No Longer Raises Eyebrows
SocialMay 6, 2026

AI Spending Frenzy No Longer Raises Eyebrows

It's wild to think that at this point no one even blinks when a tech company announces it plans to spend another $50 billion in the AI space.

By Peter Atwater
Peter Atwater | Pulse