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EMAIL DIGESTS
Daily
Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
In an open system, regulation doesn't eliminate risk taking; it moves it. Crypto and private credit were just the latest examples. Not surprisingly - in fact, as always - the least regulated fails first when sentiment turns. Prediction markets are next.
If you thought commodities were fun with the retail crowd, just wait until they dive into puts.
As economists forecast falling gas prices later in 2026, I encourage you to consider this chart. Once surcharges are imposed, the benefits of falling prices are very slow to follow... https://t.co/pl5zUkZK7h
FWIW - As the worst loans are made at the very peak of the credit cycle, credit cycles invariably burst on a LIFO basis. The worst always go first, and frequently through a high-storey window leaving no skid marks.
Few business models depend on growth like subprime lending. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that without it, it can't exist.
It is hard not to see K-Shaped consequences to the events in Iran, as those at the bottom around the global disproportionately experience the real time impacts of food and energy inflation.
Looks like this spring is shaping up to be a "Billionaire Bonanza" what with Musk, Lucky, Ackman, and others lining up with IPOs...
For those looking for a real-time measure for Iran-related consumer stress... Still well below Ukraine Invasion levels. https://t.co/QMoOhztOkb
FWIW - Sure feels like something to keep a close eye on no now that we've arrived at 43.9999. https://t.co/00dDXuJBOI
Between falling stock prices and rising gas prices, events in Iran are negatively impacting both ends of the K-Shaped Economy.
Just the usual reminder that while circuit breakers are seen as an output of falling investor confidence, they are also an input. And there, repetition matters.
While gas prices will get all the attention, it is worth pointing out the near 15% increase in heating oil this morning.
Congratulations to the team at Netflix for coming in second. If the history of bidding wars holds, they will end up as the real winner.
FWIW - After the kind of prolonged coil that we've seen with Nvidia since the summer, you would expect to see a dramatic move up or down as the tug of war between the bulls and bears is resolved. We didn't...
Just a reminder. With the KOSPI all but a semiconductor ETF in drag, tonight's Nvidia news will have serious global ripples.
Just a reminder that after the close today the market narrative is likely to change and with that so will investor confidence and their decisions.
I suppose that now that the team at Goldman thinks this is true, it must be...
Never underestimate the crowd's willingness to attribute a down market to the most obvious cause (whether accurate or not).
FWIW - The sentiment data suggests its not a "boomcession" we're experiencing but a "maniapression." Those at the top can't put enough into the markets, while those at the bottom fall further and further behind on their loans.
As causal narratives go, the one behind today's sell-off reads like it came out of the script for a Christopher Guest mockumentory. Think "Best in Show" meets r/Wallstreetbets. https://t.co/2HYvEmMpnC https://t.co/8KYvf56ooM
Our evening garage band - "AI Scare Trade" comes from the market. While swift, Taylor it's not.
