Vulnerability Unfolds in Three Stages: Powerlessness, Cause‑Seeking, Blame
Just as there a stages to grief, there are stages to vulnerability. First come our intense feelings of powerlessness and uncertainty. Second comes our search for a cause. Third comes our assignment of blame.
Social Media Amplifies Instant Narrative Spread Worldwide
FWIW - It's not the speed of the narrative change that is different today. That is always immediate. What is different today is the speed and breadth of the transmission of narratives. Thanks to social media it moves instantly...
Physical Commodities' Real Value Lies in Logistics
Watch closely and you can see the crowd awakening to the reality that physical commodities are far different from financial assets. Yes, there are supply and demand. But there is all the in between: transportation, storage, processing... which ultimately...
Certainty and Control Shape What We Want and Do
I realize this is entirely self-serving but my book "The Confidence Map" gives you a framework for understanding how and why what we want and do change with changes in our feelings of certainty and control - which today is...
Scarcity Fuels Powerlessness and Hidden Behavioral Shifts
If you've not read the book "Scarcity" yet, you need to. The feelings of powerless and uncertainty that come from not having enough of what matters are intense and change us in more ways than we realize.
Nike's Stock Reflects Global Influence of American Culture
Why does the share price of Nike matter? Few businesses have come to symbolize American culture to the rest of the world like Nike.
Why Nike’s New CEO Choice Signals Future Trouble
I am often asked how I use my framework in real-time. Here is what I wrote about Nike just after Elliott Hill was named CEO, and why I wasn't excited about his selection. To be clear, it was less about...
Confidence Shifts Amid Iran Tensions and K‑Shaped Economy
ICYMI - Here's the video of my conversation yesterday with @BloombergRadio's @carolmassar and @timsteno where we discussed consumer and investor confidence amid the backdrop of Iran and the K-Shaped Economy. https://t.co/cW6ySEZJA8
Culture Never Reverts; Nike's New CEO Sparks Debate
Back in September 2024, just after Elliott Hill was named CEO of Nike, I shared my pessimistic outlook on @cnbc with @BeckyQuick @andrewrsorkin. Let's just say, they were having none of it. As I shared, in culture, you can...
Disappointed CNBC Skipped “Markets In Celebration” Tonight
After a day like today, I am disappointed CNBC didn't run a "Markets In Celebration" special tonight.
Valuation Is a Narrative, Not Just Numbers
"Valuation is a story" Great thoughts on Allbirds from @ProfPaulNary who I encourage you to follow for his thoughtful insights on the M&A space.
Market Prices Now Directly Drive Economic Reality
The market may not be the economy, but today, the economy is the market. The speed by which changes in market prices move into the economy has never been faster. #MarkToMarketEconomy
Affordability Crisis Deepens for the Poor Despite Media Silence
Just a reminder that while the crowd and the media may have moved on, the affordability crisis didn't suddenly go away for those at the bottom. In fact, just the opposite. It's gotten worse, and not just economically.
Ignore Issues in Confidence, Face Them When Mood Falters
What we don't address when confidence is high, we are forced to confront when mood falls. We must deal with the problems arising from our failure to address THE problem.
When BTFD Flips to STFR, Gamblers Stay Indifferent
Which begs the question, what happens when BTFD becomes STFR - "Sell The F'ing Rip?" Before you say, "They'd never," remember that the nihilist gambler plays to win. He's agnostic to market direction.
K‑Shaped Economy Limits Live Events to the Wealthy
In a K-Shaped economy, only those on the arm can afford to see events live and in person...
Our Responses Shape Crises, Not Just History Repeating
While history rhymes, what is different this time inevitably reflects what we did in response to the last crisis. Thank you @Spencerjakab for reminding the crowd that, no, oil futures didn't exist during the last gas crisis. They were a...
Gratitude Reveals the Roots of Our Confidence
A Sunday morning thought: When we express gratitude, we unknowingly remind ourselves of the sources of confidence in our life - the people, places and things that matter most to us and where in our life we feel most certain and...
Twitter Feed Flooded with Low‑quality Ads, Deterring Advertisers
Is it just my feed or are others suddenly awash in what might best be labeled "Ad Slop." If I were a paying advertiser, I'd pull my business.
Marked‑to‑
FWIW - This column I wrote for @FT back in 2022 on the consequences of a marked-to-market economy seems even more relevant today given how top-heavy it has become. https://t.co/5a53albeSu
TSA Lines Echo the Powerlessness of the Marginalized
FWIW - The feelings of powerlessness and uncertainty that air travellers are now experiencing in TSA lines is all too familiar to those at the very bottom. Hopefully more will begin to appreciate why the divide in confidence matters.
Falling Consumer Confidence May Force Leaders to Dump Foreign Investments
FWIW - With or without further increases in oil prices, should consumer confidence around the globe continue to fall, and "Me Here Now" thinking really set in, it is hard not imagine local policymakers being pressured by voters to dump...
Current Searches Show Less Slowdown Worry than 2022
FWIW - There's a noticeable difference in search trends today versus 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. While inflation searches are comparably elevating, there's nowhere near the concern about an economic slowdown today as there was then. https://t.co/QkWqRG0gXo
War Beta Reveals Asset Sensitivity to Middle East Tensions
This morning is offering a beautiful moment to see what I call "War Beta" - how price sensitive specific assets are to changes in Middle East tensions.
Healthcare Shifts to Homeownership, Burdening the Poor
The healthcare model moves to homeownership. Higher premiums for lower coverage. Now let's pause to consider who this adversely impacts the most. I suppose we should take consolation in the fact that those at the bottom were already priced out of home ownership.
June Philly‑
The price this morning to fly Philly to London in June. Maybe it is just me, but it feels like the entire plane now requires arm-of-the-K passengers. Meanwhile those gouge. afford to pay feel increasingly gouged. https://t.co/e1jUnriLII
Regulation Shifts, Not Stops Bad Behavior; Insider Trading Prevails
As every parent of teenagers knows all too well, in an open system, regulation merely moves the location of bad behavior; it doesn't eliminate it. That prediction markets are awash in insider trading should surprise no one.
Overconfidence Fuels New Crises in Air Travel
It's been a long time since I've seen widely shared feelings of invulnerability turn into parallel crises like we're now seeing in air travel.
Confidence Swings Our Preference: Looks vs Pure Competence
When confidence is high we value appearance and equate it with competence. We celebrate pretty people doing pretty things in pretty places. When confidence is low, we crave competence pure and simple. When a pipe bursts, nobody ever hires a plumber...
Bottom‑ranked Workers Master Crises Through Everyday Powerlessness
FWIW, those at the bottom are far more skilled for crises than those at the top. Why? Because for those at bottom, moments of extreme powerlessness and uncertainty are called Tuesday.
Confidence Skews Future Vision: Overprepare in Triumph, Hope in Despair
Our imagination of the future perfectly mirrors our level of confidence. Therefore, we need to remember to prepare for a future that will inevitably be worse than we imagine when we feel invincible and prepare for a future that will be...
Scarcity Breeds Powerlessness; Read the Essential Book
As the world moves quickly from higher prices to outright rationing, I can't recommend the book "Scarcity" enough. As I write in "The Confidence Map" not having enough of what matters fuels intense feelings of powerlessness and uncertainty. https://t.co/rwHhqBqG8U
Kirby's Explicit Limits Reveal Hidden Plans, Fueling Betrayal
Ironically by being explicit about what United won't do, Kirby is being explicit about United will do should conditions deteriorate beyond his current expectations. I share this because, unknowingly, he has set the stage for feelings of intense betrayal.
Overconfidence Is Just Excessive Fearlessness and False Certainty
A Saturday morning thought. Overconfidence suggests we have too much of something positive. That couldn't be further from the truth. The reality is that we have too much fearlessness. We feel invulnerable. We believe we have far more certainty...
Airlines Face Unprecedented Q1 Earnings Amid Fuel and Demand Pressures
Between TSA lines, fuel costs and the actual physical availability of jet fuel, I expect Q1 airline industry earnings reports to be awash in the word "unprecedented." And God help them if we see weakness in premium passenger demand given all...
Capital Exodus Mirrors Past Crises, Timing
FWIW - I can't think of a more ill-timed moment to enable capital to exit the banking system. Then again, I saw this in the late 1990's and right before the housing crisis. https://t.co/BElQudhOBb
Rising Defaults and Funding Costs Squeeze Credit Card Margins
It was once thought that as defaults rose, credit card issuers would simply increase the rate they charge to compensate for that. Hard to see that now, given current portfolio yields. Worse, their cost of funds is rising...
Deregulation Inevitably Triggers Later Re‑regulation, Says Regulators
Just a reminder that when it comes to bank regulation, what is deregulated on the way up is inevitably reregulated on the way down. Love them or hate them, there is no trend following crowd like our banking regulators.
Food Inflation Fuels Political Instability, Threatening the Poor
15 years ago, the New England Complex Systems Institute looked at the relationship between food inflation and political instability. I can't emphasize its relevance now as inflation in everything is trampling those at the bottom. https://t.co/Wg5XzDJZAk https://t.co/Se3PcLw0YI
Gas Price Searches Show Calm After 2022 Panic
FWIW - "Cheapest Gas Near Me" searches tell us that while consumers are now concerned, they still aren't as panicked as they were during 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. https://t.co/P4wIhotOdw
Europe’s Gas Crisis Sparks Powerlessness, Calls for Referendum
The problem with soaring gas prices in Europe is that it is deja vu all over again when it comes to extreme powerlessness. FWIW - It is hard to imagine Europe gets through this without a voter referendum on powerlessness. Needless to...
McClellanOsc’s X Account Hacked—Exercise Posting Caution
FYI - Just heard from @McClellanOsc . His X account has been hacked. Please be careful with what may be posted until he gets it back under control. Thanks.
Abstract Gains, Tangible Losses Fuel AI Backlash
There is an important parallel between AI and the Iran War. The benefits of both are highly abstract to Main Street while the costs feel very tangible. This psychological mismatch matters as it easily opens the potential for backlash to both.
Iran's Crisis Fueled by Prior Sense of Invulnerability
FWIW - The greatest risk to the unfolding events in Iran was, is, and will continue to be the backdrop of invulnerability that existed moments before hand.
Energy K‑Shape: Owners Thrive, Consumers Struggle
That sound you hear is the widening of the K-Shaped economy - this time between the owners of energy assets and the consumers of energy assets.
Future Overregulation Will Eclipse Dodd‑Frank’s Limits
FWIW - The wave of overregulation ahead is going to make Dodd Frank look like feeble.
Regulation Shifts Risk; Least‑Regulated Sectors Fail First
In an open system, regulation doesn't eliminate risk taking; it moves it. Crypto and private credit were just the latest examples. Not surprisingly - in fact, as always - the least regulated fails first when sentiment turns. Prediction markets are next.
Commodities Get Wilder When Retail Traders Bet Puts
If you thought commodities were fun with the retail crowd, just wait until they dive into puts.
Surcharges Delay Relief From Falling Gas Prices
As economists forecast falling gas prices later in 2026, I encourage you to consider this chart. Once surcharges are imposed, the benefits of falling prices are very slow to follow... https://t.co/pl5zUkZK7h
Worst Loans Hit First as Credit Cycles Collapse
FWIW - As the worst loans are made at the very peak of the credit cycle, credit cycles invariably burst on a LIFO basis. The worst always go first, and frequently through a high-storey window leaving no skid marks.