Subprime Lending Thrives Only on Continuous Growth
Few business models depend on growth like subprime lending. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that without it, it can't exist.
Iran Crisis Deepens K‑
It is hard not to see K-Shaped consequences to the events in Iran, as those at the bottom around the global disproportionately experience the real time impacts of food and energy inflation.
Spring IPO Surge Attracts Billionaire Investors
Looks like this spring is shaping up to be a "Billionaire Bonanza" what with Musk, Lucky, Ackman, and others lining up with IPOs...
Iran Consumer Stress Remains Far Below Ukraine Invasion Levels
For those looking for a real-time measure for Iran-related consumer stress... Still well below Ukraine Invasion levels. https://t.co/QMoOhztOkb
Watch the Metric Near Critical 44 Threshold
FWIW - Sure feels like something to keep a close eye on no now that we've arrived at 43.9999. https://t.co/00dDXuJBOI
Iran's Turmoil Hurts Both Sides of K‑shaped Economy
Between falling stock prices and rising gas prices, events in Iran are negatively impacting both ends of the K-Shaped Economy.
Circuit Breakers Both Cause and Signal Investor Confidence Decline
Just the usual reminder that while circuit breakers are seen as an output of falling investor confidence, they are also an input. And there, repetition matters.
Heating Oil Spikes 15% as Gas Hogs Headlines
While gas prices will get all the attention, it is worth pointing out the near 15% increase in heating oil this morning.
Netflix Finishes Second, Poised to Win the War
Congratulations to the team at Netflix for coming in second. If the history of bidding wars holds, they will end up as the real winner.
Nvidia's Prolonged Rally Ends without Dramatic Swing
FWIW - After the kind of prolonged coil that we've seen with Nvidia since the summer, you would expect to see a dramatic move up or down as the tug of war between the bulls and bears is resolved. We didn't...
Nvidia News Set to Shake Global Markets Amid KOSPI Slump
Just a reminder. With the KOSPI all but a semiconductor ETF in drag, tonight's Nvidia news will have serious global ripples.
Post‑close Narrative Shift Will Reshape Investor Confidence
Just a reminder that after the close today the market narrative is likely to change and with that so will investor confidence and their decisions.
Goldman's Endorsement Turns Speculation Into Assumed Fact
I suppose that now that the team at Goldman thinks this is true, it must be...
Crowds Default to Obvious Blame for Market Downturns
Never underestimate the crowd's willingness to attribute a down market to the most obvious cause (whether accurate or not).
Mania Depression: Elites Stagnate, Borrowers Slip Further
FWIW - The sentiment data suggests its not a "boomcession" we're experiencing but a "maniapression." Those at the top can't put enough into the markets, while those at the bottom fall further and further behind on their loans.
Today's Sell‑off Feels Like a WallStreetBets Mockumentary
As causal narratives go, the one behind today's sell-off reads like it came out of the script for a Christopher Guest mockumentory. Think "Best in Show" meets r/Wallstreetbets. https://t.co/2HYvEmMpnC https://t.co/8KYvf56ooM
AI Hype Lags Behind Market Expectations
Our evening garage band - "AI Scare Trade" comes from the market. While swift, Taylor it's not.