Expect Early Summer Mean Reversion in Mag7 Semis
While we were using Mag7 and semiconductors as funding shorts earlier in the year, a few weeks ago we wrote about a possible mean reversion trade into early summer. https://t.co/7fSZ0NNFXM
SOXX Soars, NVDA Stalls: Catch‑Up Unlikely
Since NVDA and MAGS all-time highs in late October, SOXX is +48%, NVDA is -2%, and MAGS is -4%. Historically it's rare for NVDA to "play catch up" to SOXX. If you expect NVDA to break out to new highs here,...
Japan's Debt Trap Leaves Yen as Sole Release Valve
Japan is trapped. ~230% debt/GDP. BOJ owns 50%+ of the JGB market. Deeply negative real rates. The Yen is weakening despite rising yields because the market knows they can't meaningfully hike without triggering a fiscal crisis. The currency is the...
USDJPY: The Overlooked Market Driver You Need
I think USDJPY is one of the most important variables in the market right now that is flying under the radar. I discuss it in length here👇
2026 Could Add Three Trillion‑Dollar IPOs to Top Ten
2026 may see 3 IPOs that instantly put the companies in the world's top 10 largest by market cap. In our recent Scouting the Tape, I try to quantify the impact of this coming onslaught of trillion dollar IPOs. Shoutout to...
Buy Oil Majors at February Low Prices
Purchases of international oil majors that are trading at their early February levels when Brent was <$70 strike me as 'money good' $XOM $CVX $COP
Unlock Rate Spike May Be Misleading Amid Revenue Decline
Is this $HYPE unlocks chart accurate? Daily rate of unlocks doubles this week? If so, funny timing for week founder is on magazine cover. I wonder if a reduction in weekend war events will sway people's attention from this name for...
Expect a Chaotic Market: Spikes, Shortages, and Volatile Bonds
Markets are going to be funky. SoH closure into an oil price spike and physical shortage. COVID showed us anything is on the table and that governments never let a good crisis go to waste. With sovereign bond yields about...
MARA Poised to Liquidate Remaining Bitcoin Holdings
It's only a matter of time before $MARA pukes the rest of their Bitcoin. New lows on the stock will probably help get them to do it. https://t.co/AAPKe7GYYM
Burry Abandoning His Big Short Would Change Everything
Imagine if @michaeljburry gave up on his big short thesis on the first short squeeze. https://t.co/PmWJhvZ8Ss
Bonds Unfazed: Inflation Still Poor, Outlook Deteriorates
I think bonds are saying they don't really care that this inflation print was 'better than expectations' because 1) it's still not good and 2) the next few months are going to be even worse.
Bullish Outlook: Positioning vs Seven-Day S&P Rally
When I ask others for the bull case from here in stocks, by far the most common answer is positioning and CTA buying. I have trouble squaring that idea with the fact that the S&P 500 is up 7 days in...
Call for Polymarket S&P 500 EPS Betting Market
Can we please get @Polymarket betting markets going for S&P 500 EPS? I want to bet on this chart. Credit @BillyDishman on the idea😀 https://t.co/DP2pZ36MNn
Israel's Unchecked Aggression Fuels Regional Retaliation Risks
If you’re top brass in Iran and Israel has shown no restraint in killing every new person that assumes US negotiating duties, why would you fly to Islamabad only to have your plane tracked and blown up the second you...
Software/Bitcoin Divergence Historically Signals Bearish Crypto
Looking forward to having @Tyler_Neville_ explain to me why today's software/Bitcoin divergence is bullish crypto when every time this has happened in the last year+ it has been bearish. https://t.co/FZ4UbCPPpH