Japan's Nikkei Beats S&P 500 Amid Demographic Headwinds
Japan has defied more gravity than any other equity market in the last year. Most indebted country in the world. Imports 60% of food and 90% of energy. Median age of 50. Losing a city the size of San Francisco every year to population decline. Yet the Nikkei has outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly +30% since Liberation Day without the AI and semiconductor darlings. USDJPY is back to 160 area and JGB yield curves are screaming for tightening. Keep an eye on this space over the coming weeks.
Warsh's Fed Leadership Ignores Inflation Amid Widening Sentiment Divide
Warsh's new Fed leadership couldn't be coming at a more complex time. There's never been a bigger divergence between consumer sentiment surveys and the stock market as the K-shaped economy is worsening. Meanwhile, his preference for alternate data measures conveniently...
Crypto Volatility Hits 2.5‑year Low, Volume Slump Hurts Treasury Firms
Crypto is heading into its worst seasonal period with implied volatility plummeting to 2.5 year lows and exchange volumes continuing their declining. MSTR has bought $13B of BTC and BMNR $2B of ETH this year, yet both assets are down YTD....
Inflation Stays Above 2% Target for 62 Months
This is an all-time great line from today's FOMC minutes. Can someone please remind the Fed that inflation has been above their 2% target for...62 straight months.
Russia's Oil Output Falls, Exports Rise Amid War
Russia's oil production in April was the lowest since 2020. Despite that, their exports have risen as Ukrainian attacks on refineries have cut domestic use and led to higher shipments while the US temporarily waived sanctions. Due to the higher...
Oil‑XLE/XLK Gap Signals Potential Market Re‑Alignment
There's a massive divergence between the price of oil and the XLE/XLK ratio right now. Historically these track closely but a big gap has opened up. This gap is likely to close if the supply shock keeps oil elevated longer than...
Dollar Weakens, Yields Rise: Loose Policy Warning
Dollar down, yields up. In normal times these are positively correlated. When they diverge and the currency weakens while bonds sell off, it's telling you policy is too loose. Japan has been ground zero for this dynamic. Watch closely to see...
Dollar Shorts At Risk as Hawkish Fed Looms
I think dollar shorts are vulnerable here and I'm not sure DXY's next go at 100 is going to hold again. Economic data continues to show stabilization and improvement while inflation will worsen in the near-term. Hawkish is the path...
Inflation Surges Past 3.5%, Yet Still Labeled Transitory
Inflation is about to print >3.5% and soon >4.0% as commodity prices are still rising with no end in sight. But don't worry, it's just transitory. https://t.co/ASP1TKtbsj
Tariff Revenues Plunge 30% as Imports Rise 7%
Tariff revenues are down over 30% since October despite import volumes rising 7%. The Trump-Xi meetings carry much lower stakes this year than last. Read this week's Scouting the Tape below for more. https://t.co/E2nzNSJ6uM
Premium to NAV Near 1.0x Not the Issue
Oh that's why. It's definitely not because $BMNR's premium to NAV is teetering at/below 1.0x.
Tokenized Asset Beats TradFi Volume, BOJ Dominates Bond Market
Might be the first asset in history to be tokenized and get more volume on-chain than on tradfi rails. But only because BOJ owns >50% of its bond market and its the world's largest shitcoin 🤣😂
Nasdaq Hits New Highs, Equal
No new highs in equal weight S&P 500 yet. Just new highs in Nasdaq and Nasdaq/Equal Weight. I guess it still isn't "Main Street's turn yet". https://t.co/z68PySG0zf
Aggressive SOXX Short Targets $400, Stop at $530
Firing 1 of 2 bullets at a $500 $SOXX short. Stop loss at $530. Have 1 more bullet to add if we see higher prices. Targeting $400.
BTC Bottom Prediction Validated After
This aged well. Called BTC bottom the day @saylor acknowledged quantum risks. Just coincidence? I think a lot of y'all owe @nic_carter a big fat apology. https://t.co/o8tOoTT4wQ