Weekend Risk Fears May Trigger Volatility Crush, Buying GDX, SLV
I think this should be getting more attention. Everything is about the rate of change. While I don't think this war 'goes away' soon, I wonder if today's sell off is people afraid of holding risk into a weekend due to recency bias. If Iran's response is already declining, let's say US launches another big weekend operation as Trump and Hegseth have alluded to, wouldn't that reduce Iran's capabilities even further? Note this is different than saying there's going to be a ceasefire and negotiations soon. I don't know. Just seems like we may be reaching the climax of events and it may transition to a simmering pot from a ferociously boiling one. Very short-term speculation here but if that happens, you could see vol crush and mechanical rebuying on Monday/Tuesday. That's one of the reasons I've been buying a lot of $GDX and $SLV today.
Gold Positioning Flushed; Long GLD and GDX
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
Yen Poised to Gain Whether War Eases or Escalates
Yen could be setting up for a win-win type environment. 1. War deescalates, oil down, dollar down. 2. War escalates and everything goes to shit, capital flight from US assets, flight to Yen safe haven. It's interesting to me because there's a...
DXY Near Peak as Metals Rise, USD Fundamentals Falter
Was looking for this dollar rally upon Iran invasion but now it is at a critical juncture. Metals showing life could be signal that this is about as high as DXY gets. Despite this squeeze higher, fundamentals for USD and...
War's Ripple: Beyond Russia-Ukraine, Global Complexity Unfolds
There is a lot to be learned from markets following the Russia-Ukraine invasion, except this conflict is larger and more complex. Russia (140M ppl) invaded Ukraine (40M ppl). This conflict involves more countries, supply chains, resources and critical geography.
Coal: Unexpected Hedge for AI Boom and Economic Rebound
I know it's only March but if you know anyone in your family is going to be on the naughty list you may want to consider hedging your future coal purchases with a long $COAL position. You're competing against the...
European Gas Trades over Five Times U.S., Inventory Crunch.
European natural gas is trading at >5x US natural gas prices. Last time this was the case was August 2024. $EQT $AR $RRC $CRK $CNX $EXE https://t.co/f1wU8S3w6b
Europe Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker After Four Years
Why are European countries just now standing up to Russia's oil revenue and shadow fleet after the war just crossed its 4 year anniversary? What has changed? Has the US done more to help Ukraine in the last year than...
Hyperscaler Capex Slowing, Semis Set to Underperform
Market is forward looking. Hyperscaler capex rate of change decelerates from here. This plus extreme overcrowding is why semis will underperform going forward. https://t.co/uOhD8pfFUa
One Year of Hyperscaler Capex Stuns With Massive Scale
The sheer volume of just one year of hyperscaler capex spending is mind boggling https://t.co/MtseOemoPC
Trump’s Iran Threats Spark Retaliation, Oil Surge, Prolonged Conflict
Trump communicates intention of full destruction of Iran leadership and military while calling for regime change. Iran hits all of its neighboring countries who were likely on the more apprehensive side of US taking action in the first place and...
Weekly Chartbook Offers 50+ Slides for Forward Guidance
50+ slide chartbook to go along with our @ForwardGuidance episodes - posted every week. https://t.co/BewBom4N6L
Governments Will Counter AI-Driven Deflation Pressure
AI will not materialize into prolonged deflation as governments will be forced to act. A few weeks ago in my weekly Scouting the Tape piece I wrote the below. Give my presentation from last summer's Monetarium event a watch. https://t.co/FFulg5I5cg https://t.co/opgAb1hH2N
CBO Update Shows No Near-Term Deficit Solution
This month the CBO released their first updated budget projection since January 2025. In short, there is no solution in sight to reduce the fiscal deficit. https://t.co/r8ycIrViqQ
Respect 5 PM Friday News Drops for Safer Investing
It is a prudent investment decision to respect 5pm Friday news drops given recent precedents. https://t.co/phlsQarN5X
Venezuela: Underrated U.S. Geopolitical Triumph
Politics aside, Venezuela has been an enormous geopolitical victory for the US that is probably understated and not well understood by most.
Small‑cap Outlook Dim Amid Credit Crunch, AI Slowdown
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
Trump’s Iran Deal Risks Mirror Obama, Favor Equity Shorts
Trump is going to have some explaining to do if he goes through all of this commotion and expensive military build up only to walk away with a deal not too dissimilar from Obama's. Oil is up over 6% since...
2024 Forecast Missed: Iran Tensions Now Escalate
Some of my armchair geopolitical analysis from 2024 where I expected a cooling of tensions and no conflict with Iran. Circumstances are very different today.
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
Investors Buy Protection Despite Record VIX Short Positions
Does anyone have a good explanation for why equity skew shows investors are paying up for downside protection but also VIX futures are at near record shorts? Those seem to be contradictory. https://t.co/IWYZ9IHTYl
Seeking Causes Behind Hedge Funds' Rising Leverage Beyond
Are there any other explanations for the multi-year vertical ascent in hedge fund gross leverage aside from a reduction in front end interest rates / funding costs? https://t.co/WkIt1xAlmd
Potential Crisis Looms as Fed‑White House Tensions Rise
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
US Should Avoid Iran Strike During Ramadan, Preserve Allies
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...
Defensive Sectors Exhausted, Market Poised for Broad Correction
While sectors like staples (XLP), energy (XLE), materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI) have all provided a safe haven in recent weeks as large cap tech has sucked wind, most of these are all now reaching exhaustion. This means that from...
AI Spending Lifts some Assets, Hurts Major Stock Valuations
The AI capex boom is absolutely stimulative to *certain* assets in the ecosystem and supply chain, but that won't be Mag7 stock prices from here. Revenue growth is slowing, input prices rising and you can connect the dots on what...
US Backs Coal Revival as Indonesia Slashes Output
Two major coal developments in the last 24 hours. 1. White House announcing purchases and support to revive the industry 2. Indonesia just ordered the world's largest nickel mine to sharply cut output. They are also looking to cut coal production by...
Dollar Weakening as Diverging Policies Boost Global Assets
I keep playing through the potential outcomes over the coming months and I have a very difficult time painting a bull case for the dollar. I expect: 1. Monetary policy divergence widens (more dovish US vs RoW/Japan) 2. Capital flight risk as...
Weak Retail, Slowing Wages Hint at Poor NFP
Bad retail sales, falling wage growth and now Hassett and Navarro comments implying bad NFP tomorrow...