Short EWY Offers Strong Risk‑Reward Setup
The technical setups for shorts here look good too. Strong risk:reward propositions with invalidations nearby. Stop loss at new closing high above $138 on $EWY for example risks $6 to make $20-$40 depending on if it lands at 100 or 200 DMA. https://t.co/7UOQVk9IdR
US May Have Sparked War to Deter China’s Taiwan Ambitions
For the geopolitical experts out there - what are the odds that the US was keen to start this war due to intel that China was looking to make a move on Taiwan and that an energy crisis / Strait...
Three Weeks of Strait Closure Sparks Ongoing Chaos
Approaching 3 weeks of Strait closure and no end in sight. Crazy things are happening out there.
US Strikes on Iran Risk 5% Global Oil Loss
Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait...
Fed Rate Outlook Shifts Dramatically in Three Months
Wild to think just 3 months ago there was an FOMC member projecting a 2-2.25% Fed Funds rate for 2026 (6 cuts from current). How quickly the times change... https://t.co/pLQLDHIdVx
Allies' Oil Shortage Fuels US Strait Standoff
It should be taken with a grain of salt when you hear European and Asian countries saying they won’t help to open the Strait. Majority of these countries are short oil and will face severe crises if they don’t act....
Few Missiles and Drones Can Keep Hormuz Shut Indefinitely
Question for all the maritime insurance experts out there - what will it take for the large P&I clubs to reactivate coverage through the Strait of Hormuz? One of my takeaways from this conflict is how few missiles and drones it...
No TACOs: Trump Lacks Leverage in Energy Crisis
The discussion around TACO is wrong. There are no TACOs here. TACOs don't exist when: 1) It's not a unilateral decision. It's very clearly not up to Trump any more. Things we said in this episode are playing out - he...
Fed Treasury Holdings Surge, Keeping Gold Bullish
The Fed's balance sheet holdings of US Treasuries is now at October 2024 levels and rising. This is why it's difficult to get secularly bearish on gold. Material balance sheet expansion has begun with asset prices at ATHs and no...
AI Compute Shift Forces Miners to Dump Bitcoin
A large underappreciated headwind for Bitcoin is the disaster that which is mining economics. The only way this heals is through a decline in hashrate, which is being spearheaded by the AI compute first movers like $CORZ, $WULF, $CIFR, $IREN,...
Market Walkdown Signals Impending Sprint to Exit
How wild would it be if everyone who called for Black Monday last weekend was just a week early? The market is being consistently walked down and eventually people come to their senses as to what's going on and the walk...
NVDA Short Offers 4:1 Risk‑reward,
With a stop loss at $192, where $NVDA has not been able to break out above, the risk is $10 from here with $40 upside (short) down to $142. Great risk / reward. Oh by the way, $NVDA is 7.7%...
Desensitized by Media, Markets Sleepwalk as Prices Surge
The internet and social media has desensitized humans to a lot of things. I don’t think we grasp just how crazy the stuff that’s going on is and the fact that it’s broadcast for the world to see in real-time. Markets...
Record Put Skew Raises Risk of Downward Spiral
It seems like everyone and their brother is aware of the record levels of put skew and hedging in the market by now. I wonder what magnitude of a tail event is required to break that loose? Is there a level...
Nasdaq up 6%; Shift From Small‑cap to Big‑tech Shorts
Nasdaq outperforming Russel by +6% since this. Would start to exit the small cap underperformance theme and rotate back to the big tech short theme, although both probably struggle together from here. https://t.co/H7964lBBpH
Bitcoin Correlation Charts: Fresh Narratives, No Lasting Impact
It seems like every month there’s a new Bitcoin correlation chart that is always used to try and strike up a new narrative but never holds
High Commodity Prices Spell Trouble for Bonds
Assuming oil and commodity prices stay anywhere remotely close to current, bonds have a big problem. You should read @fejau_inc's piece.
Market Offers Few Safe Havens: Short COST, WMT
Another illustration that displays just how few places there are to hide in this market. Short $COST big. Short $WMT smedium. https://t.co/GNQlkIyRbv
MSTR Lows and Premium Persist; Capitulation
I don't think the lows in $MSTR nor its premium to NAV are in. True capitulation only arrives when the orange dots stop. https://t.co/Xo0lbzEvxE
Broadcom Overtakes Meta in Market Capitalization
Broadcom $AVGO just surpassed Meta $META in market cap. Which would you rather own here @ramahluwalia? https://t.co/ZmgmD0NMMq
Iran War Doubles Oil Moves, Halves Dollar Impact
Compared to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion, this Iran war has produced 2x the move in oil, but only 1/2 the move in DXY. This is exactly what I'm talking about playing out - the dollar is structurally challenged. https://t.co/H1VIqKNbr7
Low US Rigs Signal No Rapid Production Surge
The low level of active US oil and gas rigs indicate a quick ramp in production is unlikely without sustained high oil prices and higher E&P company share prices. https://t.co/GDCcOHcEBE
Higher Oil/Gas Gains, AI Capex Stalls, Credit Strains
Pretty much agree with everything @abcampbell wrote in this. He articulates things very well. 1. Long oil and gas equities who stand to benefit from higher for longer futures curves https://t.co/OpqxY05aWo 2. Economic growth will be tested and small cap longs behind...
Iran Conflict Fuels Endless Oil‑price, Russia‑Ukraine Funding Loop
So the longer the Iran conflict lasts... 1. The longer oil prices are higher 2. The longer the Trump admin allows Russian oil to be sold without sanctions 3. The more financial firepower Russia has to support Iran to prolong the conflict ...rinse and...
Back‑end Oil Futures Boost Equities Despite Physical Short Squeeze
Andy makes a great point here around potential L/S positioning in the oil and gas space. I think chasing the physical commodities up a tree here is dangerous but I still really like oil and nat gas equities for two...
Weekend Risk Fears May Trigger Volatility Crush, Buying GDX, SLV
I think this should be getting more attention. Everything is about the rate of change. While I don't think this war 'goes away' soon, I wonder if today's sell off is people afraid of holding risk into a weekend due...
Gold Positioning Flushed; Long GLD and GDX
New @ForwardGuidance chartbook just dropped for this week's episode. Wanted to call out a few we did not discuss live on the pod. Takeaway: Gold positioning length has been absolutely flushed (and these charts are few days old, before the recent...
Yen Poised to Gain Whether War Eases or Escalates
Yen could be setting up for a win-win type environment. 1. War deescalates, oil down, dollar down. 2. War escalates and everything goes to shit, capital flight from US assets, flight to Yen safe haven. It's interesting to me because there's a...
DXY Near Peak as Metals Rise, USD Fundamentals Falter
Was looking for this dollar rally upon Iran invasion but now it is at a critical juncture. Metals showing life could be signal that this is about as high as DXY gets. Despite this squeeze higher, fundamentals for USD and...
War's Ripple: Beyond Russia-Ukraine, Global Complexity Unfolds
There is a lot to be learned from markets following the Russia-Ukraine invasion, except this conflict is larger and more complex. Russia (140M ppl) invaded Ukraine (40M ppl). This conflict involves more countries, supply chains, resources and critical geography.
Coal: Unexpected Hedge for AI Boom and Economic Rebound
I know it's only March but if you know anyone in your family is going to be on the naughty list you may want to consider hedging your future coal purchases with a long $COAL position. You're competing against the...
European Gas Trades over Five Times U.S., Inventory Crunch.
European natural gas is trading at >5x US natural gas prices. Last time this was the case was August 2024. $EQT $AR $RRC $CRK $CNX $EXE https://t.co/f1wU8S3w6b
Europe Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker After Four Years
Why are European countries just now standing up to Russia's oil revenue and shadow fleet after the war just crossed its 4 year anniversary? What has changed? Has the US done more to help Ukraine in the last year than...
Hyperscaler Capex Slowing, Semis Set to Underperform
Market is forward looking. Hyperscaler capex rate of change decelerates from here. This plus extreme overcrowding is why semis will underperform going forward. https://t.co/uOhD8pfFUa
One Year of Hyperscaler Capex Stuns With Massive Scale
The sheer volume of just one year of hyperscaler capex spending is mind boggling https://t.co/MtseOemoPC
Trump’s Iran Threats Spark Retaliation, Oil Surge, Prolonged Conflict
Trump communicates intention of full destruction of Iran leadership and military while calling for regime change. Iran hits all of its neighboring countries who were likely on the more apprehensive side of US taking action in the first place and...
Weekly Chartbook Offers 50+ Slides for Forward Guidance
50+ slide chartbook to go along with our @ForwardGuidance episodes - posted every week. https://t.co/BewBom4N6L
Governments Will Counter AI-Driven Deflation Pressure
AI will not materialize into prolonged deflation as governments will be forced to act. A few weeks ago in my weekly Scouting the Tape piece I wrote the below. Give my presentation from last summer's Monetarium event a watch. https://t.co/FFulg5I5cg https://t.co/opgAb1hH2N
CBO Update Shows No Near-Term Deficit Solution
This month the CBO released their first updated budget projection since January 2025. In short, there is no solution in sight to reduce the fiscal deficit. https://t.co/r8ycIrViqQ
Respect 5 PM Friday News Drops for Safer Investing
It is a prudent investment decision to respect 5pm Friday news drops given recent precedents. https://t.co/phlsQarN5X
Venezuela: Underrated U.S. Geopolitical Triumph
Politics aside, Venezuela has been an enormous geopolitical victory for the US that is probably understated and not well understood by most.
Small‑cap Outlook Dim Amid Credit Crunch, AI Slowdown
Asking for a friend how small caps are going to perform after everyone piled in long behind the economic reacceleration trade while private credit implodes, the AI capex buffer declines and the Fed remains on hold...
Trump’s Iran Deal Risks Mirror Obama, Favor Equity Shorts
Trump is going to have some explaining to do if he goes through all of this commotion and expensive military build up only to walk away with a deal not too dissimilar from Obama's. Oil is up over 6% since...
2024 Forecast Missed: Iran Tensions Now Escalate
Some of my armchair geopolitical analysis from 2024 where I expected a cooling of tensions and no conflict with Iran. Circumstances are very different today.
TLT Seen as Lower High, Still Hating Treasuries
I think I might be the only person in the world who still hates US Treasuries here. $TLT is just another lower high imo until proven wrong.
Investors Buy Protection Despite Record VIX Short Positions
Does anyone have a good explanation for why equity skew shows investors are paying up for downside protection but also VIX futures are at near record shorts? Those seem to be contradictory. https://t.co/IWYZ9IHTYl
Seeking Causes Behind Hedge Funds' Rising Leverage Beyond
Are there any other explanations for the multi-year vertical ascent in hedge fund gross leverage aside from a reduction in front end interest rates / funding costs? https://t.co/WkIt1xAlmd
Potential Crisis Looms as Fed‑White House Tensions Rise
How ironic would it be if there were a market crisis event in the next few months while Powell is still at the helm of the Fed, requiring extreme Fed and White House/Treasury cooperation while those relations are as strained...
Investors Choose Safe Bonds, Accepting Low Real Returns
One way to interpret recent price action in the bond market is that large pools of investment capital have made the determination that a 3.6%-4.1% guaranteed nominal return over the next 5-10 years is preferable to taking on the risk/reward...
US Should Avoid Iran Strike During Ramadan, Preserve Allies
This is the last weekend before Ramadan (2/17 - 3/26) and it happens to be a 3 day US holiday. Not that someone with Trump's risk appetite couldn't strike Iran during the holiest month of the Islamic calendar, it certainly...