Rene Sellmann
Analyzes Chinese equities and macro drivers, comparing CSI 300 and Hang Seng.
Mercado Libre Deep Dive: Thesis, Model, Risks, Valuation
I just released my Mercado Libre deep dive - $MELI I cover everything you need to know about the current opportunity – from the key pillars of the thesis to the business model, risks, and valuation. Find it via the link in my bio.
Invest with a Margin of Safety, Like Overbuilt Bridges
If you build a bridge for a 10-ton truck, you make sure it can hold 50 tons. Why should your portfolio be any different? Seth Klarman on why buying with a "Margin of Safety" is so important.
MELI Commits to Moat‑building, Long‑term Growth Investments
“We prioritize investments that are most synergistic with our ecosystem and either deepen existing moats or create new ones. All of our investments are required to demonstrate a clear path to positive direct contribution under conservative assumptions, but we do...
Steep Uptrends Yield Sharp Reversals: MELI Faces Downside
The longer and steeper the uptrend, the more violent the reversion when it finally breaks. $MELI has compounded at almost a 40% CAGR over almost two decades. The stock is in a 40% drawdown. I could see more downside here, even though I...
Prioritize Downside Protection: Selection, Valuation, Sizing
One "skill" way too many investors spend way too little time thinking about is downside protection. This can be expressed in various ways I believe: 📈 Security selection (business downside; range of outcomes; probability distribution of outcomes) 💲 Valuation (buying cheap; buying...
Concentrated Portfolio: Current Holdings Outshine New Ideas
Portfolio is pretty concentrated right now, and honestly, from an opportunity cost POV, few ideas excite me as much as some of my current holdings.
Will AI Boost or Undermine Market Efficiency?
I just released a new video on my YT channel. Curious what you think: Will AI make markets more or less efficient?
New Mental Model Worth Memorizing, So I Documented It
I came across a new mental model this week- @SFarringtonBKC wrote about it on his blog. And in the spirit of @MohnishPabrai, whenever I encounter a new mental model that carries genuine weight, I want to punch it into...
Value and Growth Only Matter When Numbers Support Them
Most investors treat "Value" and "Growth" as two different teams. Michael Mauboussin calls this "fuzzy thinking." The truth? Growth AND value only matter if the math backs them up. Here are the key insights from "The Math of Value and Growth"...
Intrinsic Value, Not Book Value, Determines True Share Worth
“Of course, it's per-share intrinsic value, not book value, that counts. Book value is an accounting term that measures the capital, including retained earnings, that has been put into a business. Intrinsic value is a present-value estimate of the cash...
Unlock 10x Returns: Fisher’s 5 Growth Secrets
Warren Buffett once said he was "85% Graham and 15% Phil Fisher." Most people study Graham’s value metrics, but they ignore the 15% that actually leads to finding stocks with 10x potential. I just reread Fisher’s "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits."...
Learn Top Investors' Strategies with Free Resources
You don't need an MBA to understand the markets. You just need to study the greatest investors of all time. I've compiled the top strategies of 10 world-class investors + one FREE resource from each that will sharpen your edge immediately. A...
Analyzing Grab Earnings: Indonesia Driver-Fee Cap Impact
I plan to cover $GRAB earnings early next week and will share my views on the impact of the "Indonesia shock“ (driver-fee cap).
Mauboussin’s TSR Checklist Prioritizes Mechanical Value Drivers
Michael Mauboussin is the gold standard for structured thinking in investing. Here is his checklist for assessing Total Shareholder Returns (TSR). It forces you to look past the "story" and focus on the mechanical drivers of value: ✅ Net Income Growth (Sales,...
Buffett’s First Venture: A Pinball Machine Earning Passive Income
Warren Buffett’s most successful investment wasn’t Apple $AAPL or Coca-Cola $KO. It was a $25 pinball machine he bought when he was 16. By the time he graduated high school, he was clearing $50 a week in pure passive income (roughly $800...