Rene Sellmann
Analyzes Chinese equities and macro drivers, comparing CSI 300 and Hang Seng.
Nintendo Valuation a Steal Despite Rising Memory Costs
50% off its highs, 40% below Switch 2 release levels, and back to 2020 levels? Here's why $NTDOY's valuation looks like a steal, even with rising memory costs (link in bio).
Spending Nintendo Day Finishing Deep Dive for Release
Today is Nintendo day $NTDOY. I'm going to dedicate the next few hours to finishing my Nintendo deep dive (already 2 hours in) and will hopefully be able to release it later today.
Meta Hits Valuation Bottom, 20x Upside Potential
Meta down -9% today. 20x fwd earnings + 18x fwd. EBIT. $META bottomed at 12x fwd earnings and single digit fwd. EBIT back in 2022, when the company fought three headwinds simultaneously.
Meta's Ad Impressions Surge, 40% of Reels Are Ads
It keeps surprising me how $META can continue growing its ad impressions at these rates (Ad Impressions +19%). I just opened Instagram and scrolled through ten Reels (of which four were ads; 40%). Makes sense now.
Spot Winning M&A and Buybacks with 10 Essential Charts
Billions of dollars are wasted every year on bad M&A and poorly timed buybacks. Michael Mauboussin’s updated 2025 paper on Capital Allocation explains exactly why – and how to spot the winners before the market does. I’ve distilled his latest research...
CFOs Resist Cutting Dividends, Missing Value Opportunities
Why do companies struggle to maximize value per share? Well, they don't truly understand their capital allocation toolkit and the concept of opportunity cost. For instance, according to Michael Mauboussin, 60% of CFOs wouldn't cut a dividend even for a value-creating...
Historical 10‑Year Growth ~6%—Most DCFs Overestimate
Most 10-year DCF models assume sustained double-digit growth. Historical base rates suggest a different reality. 📉 For the typical Russell 3000 company (1984-2020), the median 10-year sales growth is just 6.2%. Even in Tech, that median drops to 7.2%. If your "conservative"...
Great Culture Builds Durable Moats and Company Value
“Another important ingredient is culture. A great culture is about people: it is infused by great managers. Such men and women create more than products and services—they perpetuate core values such as quality, integrity, empathy, and stewardship. The "moat" and...
Robinhood's Singapore Approval Triggers Overblown Tiger Panic
Robinhood $HOOD just secured in–principle approval in Singapore. The market panicked – sending Tiger Brokers $TIGR down significantly in a single session. I think the reaction is overblown. My latest deep dive explains why this is a net negative in...
Average Returns Mask Market’s Emotional Rollercoaster
On a spreadsheet, an 8% compounded return looks like a smooth, peaceful ride. In the actual market, that 8% is an average over multiple years that may have felt like the end of the world at times and like "why...
RMS Margins Boost May Not Return for Decades
Besides being a multiple expansion story, and besides compounding revenues at a low teens rate for years, $RMS' stock has largely also been a margins expansion story, which is unlikely to repeat over the next 15-20 years.
Robustness Ratio Reveals True Competitive Strength
Nick Sleep's "robustness ratio," introduced in his 2005 Nomad Partnership letter, offers a fascinating lens through which to view a company’s competitive strength. The idea is simple yet powerful 💡: The robustness ratio compares the value a company provides to...
Weighing Cash War Chest Against Full Market Exposure
Should you hold a cash "war chest" or stay 100% invested? There is no right or wrong answer, but there are two distinct schools of thought. Here is the breakdown of Optional Value vs. Cash Drag 🧵👇🏻
Invest in Untapped Operating Leverage for Hidden Profit Explosions
My favorite type of investment? Businesses with embedded operating leverage that hasn't fully flexed yet. The market is notoriously bad at pricing long-term optionality. It sees the red line and the green line moving together today, but misses the "breakout"...
Luxury Giants Face Structural Demand Reset
Hermes $RMS just cratered 13% at one point of today's trading session. Kering is struggling to find its footing. LVMH is struggling too. The luxury "black hole" is officially here. We aren't just seeing a soft quarter here and there;...
Wise's Dual-Listing Boosts Value After Flat Share Price
Given that the dual-listing of $WISE may be completed within a month, the blockbuster quarter the company just posted may come in particularly handy. Wise IPO'd at GBP8/share, but shares quickly ran up, and basically, the stock is (almost) flat...
WISE Posts Strong Results, Nasdaq Listing May 11
Very strong results by $WISE in my view. Expected listing on the Nasdaq is already on May 11! (less than a month)
Reading Widely Fuels Better Investing, Philanthropy, and Life
“My whole life I’ve been a reader. I’m curious; I want to know how things work. Even more importantly I want to know what is going to happen. And what’s going to happen is often related to what has happened.,...
Adobe Shares Slump to 2018‑level Lows
New multi-year low for Adobe - back to prices last seen in late 2018 $ADBE
AI-Powered NotebookLM Gives Investors a Market Edge
How do you stay ahead of the market? Is traditional research enough? Or is AI the edge we’ve all been waiting for? Find out how NotebookLM transformed my investment process 👇🏻 (no paywall; link below)
Peel the Information Onion: Raw Filings Beat Noise
Most investors spend 90% of their time in the outer layer of the "information onion" and wonder why their returns are mediocre. If you want an edge, you have to peel the onion. Move past the rumors and social media noise...
Grab’s Stock Slump Masks Stronger Business Transformation
The Investor's Paradox: Grab's stock is down 43% since September 2025, yet the business is arguably stronger than ever. ✅ Profitability? Check. ✅ AI efficiency? Check. ✅ FinTech scaling? Check. Is the market missing the transformation? I think so. Read...
Founder‑led Companies Crush S&P Returns with Long‑term Focus
Data from Bain & Company shows that indexed total shareholder returns for founder-led firms vastly outperform the rest of the S&P 500. Why? ✅ Long-term obsession > Quarterly smoothing ✅ Willingness to pivot fast ✅ "Founder's Mentality" Is your portfolio weighted toward founders?
Improvement Outperforms Quality: Upgrade Beats Stable Greats
The most important chart in all of investing? Michael Mauboussin’s data shows that improvement beats quality every single time. ✅ Buying an optically "Bad" company that becomes "Great": +33% TSR 📈 Buying a "Great" company that stays "Great": +20% TSR ❌ Buying a...
Emotional Ownership Beats Financial Skin for CEOs
What is the more powerful force for a CEO: 💵 financial skin in the game ❤️ an emotional stake in the business Often, when you have an emotional stake, you also have a significant financial stake because you're the founder (but...
Value Investing: Expensive Stocks Can Outperform Cheap Ones
Most investors think 'Value' means buying low P/E or low Book Value stocks. Buffett disagrees. For instance, growth is usually seen as a positive. But if a business has low returns on capital, growth is actually a value destroyer. Sometimes the 'expensive'...
Active Allocation Needed: Three Sells, One Buy
I just released a portfolio update. Four moves. Three Sells. One Buy. One strategy. I am positioning for a period where active capital allocation and a strong stomach will be the primary drivers of performance. Read the full breakdown of...
Invest Simply: Business Moat, Trustworthy Management, High‑Return Reinvestment
Most investors make things too complicated. Chuck Akre simplified it down to just three things: 1️⃣ The Business: High ROE and a "moat" you can see from space. 2️⃣ The Management: Integrity + Skill. They treat you like a partner, not a...
Great Companies, Not Graham, Drive Real Wealth
“I saw immediately that Ben Graham was wrong. The real money was in the really great companies which carried you up and up and up.” - Charlie Munger
Value Stocks May Be Bottoming Again, Indicator Warns
Remember March 2000? The tech-heavy indices were at a vertical limit but "unloved" value stocks like Berkshire Hathaway were actually bottoming. Are we seeing a repeat of that specific historical rhyme today? One indicator is flashing red. Read my thoughts here...
Even Buffett Times Markets, Not Just Holds
One of the biggest adjustments I‘ve made over the last 12-18 months is becoming much more open-minded to the idea of timing. Still in the process of "getting" market timing. Buffett is arguably one of the greatest market timers in...
Three Essentials for Long‑Term Compound Investing
The ultimate investing framework visualization by @safalniveshak: ✅ High-quality business ✅ Owner-oriented managers ✅ Compelling valuations If you don’t have all three, you don't have a long-term compounder. This funnel from Vishal Khandelwal is a must-bookmark for any serious investor.
Reverse Thinking Reveals Hidden Risks in FICO
"The mental habit of thinking backwards forces objectivity." – Charlie Munger. Many investors look at $FICO and see a perfect toll-bridge. But to truly understand it, you have to try to disprove the thesis. That's what I did. I just published Part...
Think Backwards: Disprove Assumptions to Achieve Objectivity
"The mental habit of thinking backwards forces objectivity - because one of the ways you think a thing through backward is to take your initial assumption and say, ‘Let's try and disprove it’. That is not what most people do...
Identify Your Investing School to Navigate Markets
To navigate the markets, you have to understand the different schools of investing. Bruce Greenwald’s framework breaks it down perfectly: 1️⃣ Efficient Market Believers: Focus on allocation & low costs. 2️⃣ Short-Term Investors: Betting on momentum & price changes. 3️⃣ Long Term Investors:...
AI Giants’ $11.2T Valuation Overshadows South Sea Bubble
The Top 5 AI hyperscalers now carry an $11.2 trillion market cap. Adjusted for inflation, this dwarfs the South Sea Bubble. I’ve broken down the full Fundsmith 2026 AGM and why Terry Smith is staying the course. Read the full FREE deep...
Meta’s Hype Ignored Fundamentals, Stock Drops 30%
Meta is down >30% since I released this post in late July. "If you only looked at the financial headlines or skimmed your feed on earnings day, you'd think the story was simple: Meta is firing on all cylinders, and Zuckerberg’s...
Fundamentals Beat Luck: Prioritize Allocation, Horizon, Selection
Don't mistake a "lucky" market timing trade for a "good" investment strategy. True financial success is built on a boring foundation: ✅ Proper Asset Allocation ✅ A Long Investment Horizon ✅ Superior Stock Selection That doesn't mean that timing cannot add a few percentage points...
Even Top‑rated Stocks Often Lag the Market over Five Years
The chart below should teach you something. I curated a list of above-average companies, many of which are considered "investor darlings," yet the majority of them underperformed the index over FIVE (!) years. $FICO $V $MA $SPGI $AMZN $MELI $RACE
Leadership Takes Over 9% of FY25 Free Cash
The total 2025 leadership team compensation in FY25 adds up to around >$70 million (relative to roughly $740 million in FCF). They are all VERY handsomely paid ... $FICO
Half the Market Adopts New FICO Score in Four Years
Here's a fun fact for you: it takes around four years for 50% of the market to switch to a new version of a $FICO score.
Terry Smith’s Data‑Driven Calm Amid AI Hype
Terry Smith is currently the favorite punching bag of the investing world. After a period of underperformance, his "Quality" strategy is under heavy fire. But if you actually listen to the 2026 AGM, you’ll find one of the most rational voices...
Tech Firms Should Prioritize Dividends Amid AI Disruption Risk
In light of the AI disruption risk, more tech companies should shift their capital allocation priorities towards dividends. Agree or disagree?
Management Integrity and Culture Drive Fund Performance
“There is one thing I have been doing for many years now and has in my view been absolutely central to the fund’s performance. [...] I am referring to building an understanding of and conviction around a company manager’s integrity...
IGV Slides 4%—Potential Buying Opportunity Amid 31% Drawdown
iShares Tech-Software ETF $IGV down almost 4% today – now in a 31% drawdown. Buying opportunity?
Outperform by Targeting Low‑Competition 5‑Year Horizon
How to beat the market 101: "Only by looking further out than the short-term crowd can we expect to beat them." Nick Sleep understood that competition is highest in the 1-quarter window and lowest in the 5-year window. Excerpt from his letters...
80 Mid‑Cap Firms at Historic EV/EBIT Lows
80 US or European companies trading in the 2nd percentile of their historical EV/EBIT valuation (market cap between $500M and $5B) 👇🏻 Which one is high up on your watchlist?
LSEG: Undervalued Data Powerhouse Offering 15‑20% Returns
Is the London Stock Exchange Group $LSEG the ultimate "all-weather" compounder hiding in plain sight? With a clear path to 15-20% annualized returns, the shift from a legacy exchange to a data powerhouse is hit with a valuation dislocation. https://www.compoundwithrene.com/p/deep-dive-london-stock-exchange-group
Trim the Bulk, Let Outliers Drive Returns
The 80/20 rule is just a Power Law in disguise. Often, in a portfolio: 📈 20% of your holdings will drive 80% of your returns. 📉 80% of your stress will come from 20% of your "average" bets. The secret to long-term success? Cutting...
Master Industry DD in 5 Minutes with Three Key Questions
A 5-minute industry DD framework for any new ticker: ✅ Geography: Is the competition local or global? ✅ Entrants: How high is the "Wall" (Barriers to Entry)? ✅ Profitability: Why is it what it is? (Cyclical vs. Structural) If you can't answer the questions...