Need Friday Close Above 200‑Day MA for Optimism
Thursday recently tied the longest losing streak ever at 9 in a row. Well, Friday is down five in a row. We get asked all the time what would turn you more optimistic? A Friday close above the 200-day MA and some strength to end the week are what I'd like to see. https://t.co/20ieX4KuAs
Software Hits Feb Lows, RSI Shows Positive Divergence
Nice one from @FrankCappelleri in his note this AM. Software is back to the late February lows, but positive divergence with RSI. https://t.co/G96kkZXR5P
Mild Pullback Triggers Bear‑Market Fear, Cash Surge
On a relatively normal 9% mild pullback we saw fear levels consistent with bear markets and 100-year pandemics. Amazing chart from @MacroCharts that shows the spike in money markets and cash like ETFs hit some truly extreme levels recently. https://t.co/dS2yJz8rLA
NYSE A/D Line Defies Doom, Bull Market Persists
I know all the market breadth experts said the end was near this time two weeks ago, but the NYSE A/D line simply pulled back to a longer-term trend line before accelerating higher. Will it make a new high? Yes, as...
S&P 500 A/D Line Holds, Hinting at Bullish Turn
Nine days ago we pointed out how the S&P 500 A/D line didn't make a new low, even though price did. This bullish call wasn't popular at the time, but this is consistent with potentially better times ahead. https://t.co/HIoWdB8H7c
7‑Day Wins Historically Signal Strong
The past 20 years that saw a 7-day win streak also saw the S&P 500 higher for that full year 95% of the time and up 18.8% on avg. The only year this didn't work was 2000 and the tech bubble....
Six Straight S&P Gains Forecast 11% Median Return
Six for Six S&P 500 up six days in a row and up 6%? Above average returns across the board, with a median return of another nearly 11% 3-months later. https://t.co/bM6BsGKqAZ
PCE Confirms 3% Inflation Amid Recent Shock Waves
Today's PCE report showed once again this is a 3% inflation 🌎. On Facts vs Feelings this week, we discussed the 5 big inflation shocks the past few years. https://t.co/dbovthdUvY
Markets Resilient Despite War, Inflation, and Midterms
Who is the 🦨at the party? In our latest Facts vs Feelings, @sonusvarghese and I discussed: * The war and inflation * The labor market isn't so bad * Midterm years * And how we are positioning our portfolios https://t.co/SCOb8I9PVL
Dow's 1,000‑point Surges Mostly Occurred Under Trump
Today is the 25th time in history the Dow gained more than 1,000 points on an intraday basis. 23 of those happened under President Trump. https://t.co/huMO8XedSx
Six-Day S&P 500 Rally Rare: Only 2018 Fell Red
If the S&P 500 finishes higher today, that'll be six in a row in the green. Going back 20 years, only one year that had one of those finished in the red and it was 2018. Down years like 2011, 2015, and...
S&P 500 Nearing All‑Time High, Within 3% Opening Gap
The S&P 500 is set to open less than 3% from the late January all-time high.
Mag 7 Pullback Mirrors DeepSeek, Could Reclaim Lead
I know everyone tossed out large cap tech for staples trading at 25x earlier this year, but it feels a lot like the DeepSeek moment from last year. Mag 7 with a picture perfect pullback to the early 2025 peak. So...
Emerging Markets Test 2007 Peak, Bullish Momentum Holds
Most important chart in the world? Emerging markets broke out and tested their peak from 2007. So far, this important area is holding. Again, bullish action for the bull market we are in right now. https://t.co/cKNgzs56LA
Transports Retest 2024 Peak, Accelerating Higher
Transports are an important group. Perfect retest of the late 2024 peak and now accelerating higher. Standard bull market action. https://t.co/7SrdPoEPnC
Stocks at New Lows Since Discussion, May Drop Further
Also, stocks haven't been lower since this discussion was posted. Looking like that might continue tomorrow. @APompliano
Staples Slides to Multi-Month Low Amid Bullish Trend
Staples down nearly 2% today. On a relative basis, fell to new multi-month lows versus the S&P 500. This is consistent with bullish overall behavior. https://t.co/Omn14mWZSK
April Rate Spike Triggered Ten-Month Dow Rally
Almost one year ago right now on April 8th the 10-year nearly hit 5% and futures were crashing. That next day we had 🌮 s and it was the start of a 10-month win streak for the Dow. Something about early April...
Jobs Flip Between Growth and Contraction 11 Months Straight
It really is incredible that jobs have alternated between growth and contraction for a record 11 months in a row. The previous record? 6 back in the last 1960s. https://t.co/ktPBF1R0Ku
Youth Unemployment Drops Despite AI Job‑Loss Fears
AI is coming for college grads and their jobs they tell us. Checks data.... Unemployment rate for ages 20-24 fell from 9.2% late last year to 6.4% last month. https://t.co/D1vT4Hgt3K
April Matches July as S&P’s Most Likely Green Month
Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 in April has been higher 80% of the time, tied with July for the most likely month to be green. https://t.co/aVppxUQE3r
Carson Group Uses AI to Accelerate Advisor Growth
What is @CarsonGroupLLC doing to leverage AI to help our Advisors grow? That's a popular question we get often and I'm happy to say we are on the cutting edge of our industry here. https://t.co/6JA2zH2eMh
War’s Ripple: Global Delays Highlight Real Fallout
Things are delayed all over the globe. That's the real world fallout from the war. We discussed it on our latest Facts vs Feelings. https://t.co/yVab2TJT0b
Energy Dominates 2026: Facts vs Feelings Review
It is all about energy in 2026. We discussed the 🔥 sector on Facts vs Feelings this week 🛢️ https://t.co/6fjlhsq32I
Buy Gold Pullbacks on Upward‑Sloping 40‑Week Trend
Gold with a picture perfect pullback to the upward sloping 40-week (approximately 200-day MA). One thing about bull markets, you want to buy the 😱pullbacks. https://t.co/dxUq52rzEQ
30 Best Daily Charts Spark Fresh Ideas
Appreciate making the @dailychartbook report last night. I've said this many times, but it is simply one of the best places to get 30 of the best charts each day. Every time I read it I learn something and get...
S&P 500 Climbs Above 20‑day MA Despite Recent Lows
Big jump in stocks in the S&P 500 above their 20-day MA. But this is another one that didn't break to new lows recently even though price did. https://t.co/vHH6Uj8IiQ
S&P 500 Stocks Above 50‑Day MA Rise Despite New Low
The number of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 50-day MA moved up again, not a surprise. The potential clue was it did this yesterday, even though price moved to a new low. https://t.co/Ni6t7fVi0G
S&P 500 A/D Divergence Signals Strength Despite Breadth Lows
Breadth didn't break to new lows with price. Here's the S&P 500 A/D line sporting a positive divergence with price. https://t.co/CtFPUMxDpj
Most S&P 500 Stocks Rise Since November 25.
419 stocks on the S&P 500 higher today, the most since November 25. That marked a low back then fwiw. https://t.co/vbZ1vp1Heu
NYSE and S&P 500 Hit New Lows Again
New lows fell again on the NYSE and S&P 500. It was really interesting that we saw this yesterday, even as price moved lower again. https://t.co/ZifaFDWEc6
Dow Ends 10‑month Rally with First Drop
It was bound to happen eventually, but the Dow finally fell after a historic 10 month win streak. https://t.co/DwMq8LbfKh
Early 2024 Record Low Volatility Sets Up March Surge
Might not feel like it now, but the first two months of this year were literally one of the least volatile in history. In terms of the range, it was indeed the smallest range EVER. To see a bigger move in...
Trump Oversaw 14 of 16 Dow 1,000‑Point Gains
This was the 16th 1,000 point gain ever for the Dow. President Trump has 14 of them. https://t.co/oP8XQ1LVb1
S&P 500 EPS up 7% YTD, Margins Hit Record Highs
S&P 500 12-month EPS is up about 7% YTD, with half of that coming once the war started. Profit margins have hit new highs as well, not necessarily end of world stuff here. https://t.co/O1CvyznyMm
Bear Markets Start Fast; Current Dip Is Unusually Slow
Could the S&P 500 go down 20%? Anything is possible, but looking at the other 11 bear markets since the S&P 500 became 500 stocks shows that they usually start with a quick drop from ATHs. In fact, down 5% in only...
Lopsided Energy Sentiment Sparks Investment Opportunity
Back in November, no one wanted to own energy, per the BofA Global Fund Management survey. When things get lopsided like this, that is always the opportunity. https://t.co/thYulrNRnc
40‑Day, 5% Pullback Guarantees No Bear Market
Very interesting stat from @StovallCFRA on @CNBCTheExchange with @LesliePicker today. When it takes >40 days for the S&P 500 to have a mild 5% pullback, it has never moved into a bear market. https://t.co/9Yjk8jEYOD
War Spurs Record EPS Upswings Across All Sectors, Tech Leads
Wild chart from @WSJmarkets here. Since the war started, all 11 sectors now have higher 12-month EPS forecasts than before and tech EPS had one of the largest jumps in EPS estimates in history. 🤔 https://t.co/ObyETJ4E3o
Bull Market Likely to Endure Beyond Three
After a historic nine month win streak, the S&P 500 has pulled back about 9%. This is fairly normal, but the big question is could the bull market be over? We say no. In fact, 7 of the past 8 bull markets...
Thursday's S&P
This is no early April Fools' joke, but Thursday is down an annualized 147.6% this year for the S&P 500. Monday is up 108.2% at least, but that isn't making up for Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday. https://t.co/mtIAIGB4Q8
S&P 500 Ties Record with Nine Consecutive Down Thursdays
The last time Thursday was this bad was probably when they rolled out Joey. Most won't get that joke, but I thought it was funny. S&P 500 down nine Thursdays in a row, tying the most ever from 1930 and 1998....
S&P 500 Faces Five-Week Slide, Near Record Streak
The 🍌 peel period of February and March is living up to the name, as the S&P 500 is down five weeks in a row. The longest weekly losing streak ever? Eight in 1970 and 2001. https://t.co/77A6x56e3D
Long‑term Market Favors Gains: Up Years Outnumber Down Years
Some say the stock market is rigged. If anything, you could argue it is rigged to go higher over the long run. Yes, down years happen, but big down years relative to big up years are quite skewed. You...
Five Essential Investor Lessons Amid Market Turmoil
With everything happening out there, it is easy to get swept up in all the emotion. In our latest @CarsonResearch blog, I take a step back and look at 5 lessons all investors need to know. https://t.co/B5u4UhzmLw
Every Double‑Digit S&P Drop Since 1928 Had a Cause
As we noted last year around this time, there is always a reason stocks lose double digits during a calendar year. Only 12 times since 1928 has the S&P 500 finished down double digits and each one had a reason. https://t.co/8bqfgijTgs
S&P Slingshot Years Predict Double‑Digit Gains Ahead
Small sample size, yes. Still, last year saw the S&P 500 down more than 15% YTD at some point and finished the year up more than double digits. We called this a slingshot year. The other three times that happened (1982, 2009,...
Bullish Bitcoin Outlook Amid Predominant Negatives
Another potential positive in a sea of negatives? @FrankCappelleri in his note this AM with a bullish take on Bitcoin. https://t.co/BDZTZAKpNZ
Year Four Bull Markets Historically Deliver Strong Gains
This bull market is in year four, which historically is quite strong. Assuming the bull market doesn't end (by definition a 20% decline) you can see this year tends to be pretty strong. https://t.co/QQ3WWxzHfG
Mild Pullbacks Are Normal; Markets Usually Recover
Yes, this recent bout of volatility hasn't been fun for investors, but remember, volatility is the toll we pay to invest. These three charts are timeless and always come in handy in times like this. Chart 1 - The average years sees...
