Midterm Dips Trigger ~32% Rebound Within a Year
Midterm years tend to see the largest peak-to-trough pullbacks. That's the bad news. The good news? Off the mid-term year low, stocks have never been lower a year later and up nearly 32% on average. https://t.co/yfCeUhC21k
Low‑priced Financials: Opportunity or Hidden Trouble?
Sometimes things are cheap for a reason, but financials are one group that if you were waiting to buy it when it got cheaper, this is quite interesting.
Houston TSA Delays Reach Two‑and‑half Hours
Two and a half hour wait for TSA in Houston? Is it too obvious to say? Houston, we have a problem. https://t.co/rUJvgxQ9c1
Defensive Sectors Lag as Risk‑on Stocks Surge
Last week saw the defensive stuff lag (utilities, staples, and healthcare). While financials, industrials, and tech lead. Not exactly what you'd expect to see if this was a pure risk off environment. https://t.co/Fj8UAuTQM0
Only a Quarter of 5% Dips Become Corrections, Rarely Bears
Since WWII, there have been 105 5% pullbacks (not including the current one). About 25% of those turned into a correction and only 12.4% turned into a bear market. https://t.co/kvY5qL4H4P
High‑beta Stocks Outshine Low‑volatility Amid Market Rally
As @JC_ParetsX recently mentioned, it is peculiar to see high beta outperforming low volatility during this recent surge lower. Not what you'd expect to see if things were as bad as they keep telling us. https://t.co/rGvxOprdO0
Rising Oil Prices May Trigger an Economic Recession
Will higher oil cause a recession? @sonusvarghese and I discussed this in our latest Glass Half Full. https://t.co/Jc7IFlbB5X
Long MA Streaks End, but Returns Stay Steady
Since 1950, there have been 30 other times the S&P 500 was above it's 200-day MA for more than 200 days. Is it a bad thing when these long streaks end? Not really, as future returns appear to be about normal....
S&P Below 200‑Day MA Signals Historically Negative Returns
After 214 trading days, the S&P 500 closed beneath it's 200-day MA this week. Since 1950, when the S&P 500 closes above this trendline the annualized return is 21.1%. When it closes beneath? -22.2%. Proving once again that bad things tend to...
AAII Bullish Sentiment Hits 7‑week Low, Bears Surge
AAII bulls have been lower than the week before for a record tying 7 weeks in a row. Good chance this continues next week. Lowest bulls since September and highest bears since May. https://t.co/rUf45a3UYv
Earnings and Margins Stay Strong Amid Economic Headwinds
Wars, inflation, Fed pivots, AI eating software, etc. Not a lot of good news out there, then you look at earnings and profit margins. These two tailwinds to the bull market aren't showing much of a slowdown at all. https://t.co/cICkObh98N
Investors Face Tough Week, Yet Some Positives Ahead
I'm set to join @RobHartWBBM on @WBBMNewsradio in a couple minutes. We will wrap up another rough week for investors, but there are some potential positives out there. @Giersh https://t.co/zwwYslTFVM
First 5% S&P Correction Since November, a Normal Market Reset
The S&P 500 is in the midst of the first 5% mild correction since November (-5.1%). We tend to see three of these a year on average. They aren't fun, but they are a necessary part to investing. https://t.co/txE3vFe0Vs
S&P 500's Record Small Jan/Feb Range Predicts March Volatility
Good reminder that we just had the smallest range ever to start a year for the S&P 500 in Jan/Feb. March Madness isn't fun, but it was likely. https://t.co/zW1N50hcFr
R2k Rebounds >0.7% Despite 1.
R2k was down 1.4%, yet finished up more than 0.7%. Interesting it happened near the late '24 peak and the 40-week MA. https://t.co/HJ6HMSKM0f
Petroleum Product Prices Surge Beyond Crude, Podcast Explains
It isn't just about higher crude anymore , as various petroleum based products are soaring. We discussed this on the latest Facts vs Feelings, complete with St Patrick's Day gear and some I'm Shipping Up To Boston 🎶 🎵 https://t.co/zEoEFfsk2d
Short ETF Volume Hits Record, Sentiment Unilaterally Bearish
Volume in short ETFs is the highest ever. Awesome chart from @MacroCharts. Many clues out there that show sentiment is about as one-sided as we've ever seen.
Rate Hike Odds Surpass Cuts for First Time
The odds of a rate hike over the next three months is now higher than the odds of a cut. A month ago, no one would have believed this. https://t.co/a9K0cTXJS1
Oversold Market Signals Nearing S&P 200
Historically oversold market based on the McClellan Oscillator, right as the S&P 500 hits the upward sloping 200-day MA. https://t.co/TqybXrzkXG
Zweig Breadth Thrust Nears Red Line in Nine Days
Zweig Breadth Thrust watch. Can it get to the red line over the next nine days? https://t.co/vwblqtvrUm
Bitcoin Hits Multi-Month Highs, Confirming 7‑week Forecast
As Bitcoin moves to new multi-month highs, just a reminder of what we were being told this time 7 weeks ago. https://t.co/iwS2mmPtBJ
S&P's 3‑Week Drop Smallest Since 2019
S&P 500 down the past 3 weeks in a row, but down 'only' 4.01%. This is the smallest 3 week decline since October '19 (N=15). Pretty incredible if all you looked at was the headlines. https://t.co/Tzkqd8oLsv
35% Hike Odds in ’26, Certain November Rate Cuts
A 35% chance of a hike in '26 currently. 100% chance of three cuts back in November. Great chart from @sonusvarghese https://t.co/oAFz8G2I7j
S&P 500 Finds Support, Holds Range After Rally
S&P 500 advance/decline line pulling back to trendline support. S&P 500 index still trading in a big ol' range the past few months, as it works off the historic 40% rally after Liberation Day. Yes, the headlines are really bad, but...
Rare Oversold‑to‑Overbought Signal May Signal Bull Return
The clock for a potential Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT) started last week. Only 2% of all these signals go from oversold (like now) to overbought within 10 days (triggering a signal). But those that do tend to suggest the bulls are...
Diversify Beyond Equities: Gold, Capital Efficiency Boost Models
Yes, we are overweight equities, but it is the other stuff that has really helped our models. @sonusvarghese wrote this back in August on how we were thinking about gold, capital efficiency, and managed futures in a portfolio.
Diversify with Real Assets as Stocks and Bonds Stall
Bonds flat and stocks lower YTD. Why owning things like commodities, real and hard assets, shorter duration bonds, and managed futures in this volatile inflation 🌎 is more important than ever.
Core Services Inflation Spreading Across over Half of Categories
Further proof we have an inflation problem, even before Iran. Core PCE services (ex-housing) shows more and more broadening out of higher prices. Proportion of 105 categories with 3%+ y/y inflation Dec '19: 26% Jun '22: 69% Jan '25: 53% Jan '26: 59% https://t.co/nA65sTTb6A
Iran's Crisis Now Centered on Oil
In our second ever The Glass Half Full, @sonusvarghese and I discuss the latest in Iran. At this point, it is all about 🛢️. https://t.co/OCFY56KH0d
New Fed Chair Likely to Push Rates Higher Soon
Hikes? Get the 🍿 ready when the usually hawkish new Fed Chairman turns hawkish later this year.
Markets Stay Resilient Despite Global Turmoil and Rising Yields
War in Iran Oil up nearly 70% YTD Software stocks crashed Private credit imploding Legit chance of no cuts this year Inflation set to surge Yields globally moving higher S&P 500 down only 2.5% this year
Inflation Surprise Drives 2026 Portfolio Tilt to Hard Assets
A couple weeks ago, not many were saying inflation was more of a problem than most realized and we probably don't get as many cuts as are priced into things. @sonusvarghese was all over this lonely call. We've constructed our portfolios...
S&P Dips Below Dec Low: Historically Weak Returns
The S&P 500 just closed beneath the December low in the Q1. 38 times this happened and 38 times it didn't. When it breaks (like this year) the avg full yr return is 0.2% and up only 50% of time versus 18.9%...
BBB Spreads Tighten Since February, Still Well Below Past Peaks
BBB spreads are tighter now than where they were at the end of February. That might surprise a lot of people. Yes, spreads have widened some, but still nowhere near past levels. https://t.co/CvrdmgMyHp
S&P 500 Historically Bottoms Each March 12
Over the past past 20 years, the S&P 500 has bottomed for the year on March 12th. Today is March 12. https://t.co/1JGQH2gnm2
Historic Rally Marks 161.8% Bear Market Retracement
After a historic rally from the Liberation Day lows, I don't think the pause around here that we've seen for months is all that surprising. This is also a 161.8% retracement of the bear market from last year. Random? Maybe, but...
Protection Costs Surge Despite Modest S&P Gains
Wow. The cost for protection is nearly off the charts. Feels extreme given S&P 500 is about 4% from new ATHs. Nice one from @MacroCharts
Inflation Pops Up Unexpectedly Like Whack‑a‑Mole
Whack-a-mole inflation wasn't on my bingo card today, but it is what we are seeing.
Oil's Rare Weekly Surge Mirrors Magazine Cover
Oil just had a weekly move that is only supposed to happen once every four million years. It also happened soon after this magazine cover. Not sure that is a coincidence. https://t.co/H9Do3IylHC
2026 Budget Cuts Growing Unlikely, Odds Triple
The odds of no cut in 2026 jumped from 5% to 17%. The White House wants many cuts, but the truth is that is getting harder. Only one cut is priced in today. Two weeks ago it was about a...
Iran's 70% Output Cut Predicts Oil Price Decline
Iran's oil production is down 70%, according to reports. When the fifth largest oil producing country in the world (at 5 million barrels a day) drops like this, we now know what the underlying asset price will do. https://t.co/jRLuiAK0xM
From 57% Plunge to 400% Gain in 11 Years
17 years ago today the S&P 500 bottomed after losing nearly 57%. That started an 11 year long bull market that gained more than 400%. https://t.co/yorh6ENKeo
Banana Peel Sell‑Off Materializes, Mid‑March Weakness Expected
We've been saying for weeks now that the odds of a banana peel sell off was high. It simply is that time of year and now it is happening. Lot of fear out there, but more weakness into mid-March would...
Small Caps Tumble over 3% Amid Inflation Fears
Small caps down more than 3% because 1.) Inflation is a much bigger worry than a week ago and no cuts are coming? 2.) Sell the winners? 3.) Lucy https://t.co/3gsriv02Qd
Analyzing the Ripple Effects of the Oil Price Surge
Nice one from @greg_ip of @WSJ on the potential impacts on the spike in oil. https://t.co/FcZEQltWw3
Crude Soars 35% While S&P Bare
WTI crude up 35% on the week, one of the best weeks in history. S&P 500 down only 2%? And energy up only 1%? Markets sometimes don't make sense.
Tech Beats Energy; Early Headlines Don't Ensure Profit
Tech has outperformed energy the past 5 days. Proving once again, you can have the headlines a week early, but that doesn't mean you'll make 💰.
US Economy Gains Momentum Across Services, Manufacturing, Auto, Small‑Biz Hiring
Some recent data: * ISM services best since Aug '22 * ISM manufacturing >50 two months in row after years < 50 * Auto sales were better than expected * ADP best in 7 months and most of the jobs came from small...
Alphabet's Head‑Shoulder Pattern May Signal Bull Return
"If it is obvious, it is obviously wrong." George Granville Alphabet is creating a picture perfect head and shoulder top. Many expect this to resolve lower. What if it doesn't? If this one breaks higher, it would be a clue the...
Software Climbs over 1% on Bullish Pattern Signal
Software up more than 1% today. @FrankCappelleri shared this potentially bullish pattern this morning. So far, so good. https://t.co/qlwNHx7eF2
