Consumer Confidence Plummets Even as Economy Remains Strong
Well, @sonusvarghese might still be in X jail, but that doesn't mean he can't write. Here he dives into why consumer confidence is historically low, even though the economy is pretty good. https://t.co/T6HvtKfWLo
Retail Sales Rise Despite Historically Low Consumer Sentiment
Retail sales again surprise higher, as consumer sentiment remains historically low. Trust what they do, not what they say. @sonusvarghese is still in X jail, but he made this table to break it down. https://t.co/efYPbmw1Mo
Investors Prematurely Swapped Tech for Staples at 25x
Another great report from @MacroCharts, but this one stood out. Five weeks ago investors were dumping tech to buy staples at 25x. Whoops. https://t.co/kHSzcGfSN2
Investing at S&P 500 Highs Isn’t a Fear
One of bigger worries investors have is investing at all-time highs for the S&P 500. Should you have a fear of heights? Probably not. https://t.co/OmqSvwlcYt
Tech Drives EPS Surge, Up 15% for 2027
EPS estimates have been soaring, but it is actually coming from only three areas: materials, energy, and tech. Tech is simply amazing, as 2026 EPS estimates are up 11.3% YTD and up an incredible 15.1% for 2027. https://t.co/u40iPitzvC
100% Bull Markets Average About Three Years Duration
The current bull market is up 99.2%. Looking at the 7 bull markets that made it to 100%, they lasted another 3 yrs on avg (with a median of 1.8 years). Yes, things peaked soon after 100% was hit in 1980, 2007,...
New Highs or 7‑Day Streak Signal 18% Annual Gains
Two to think about 1.) S&P 500 new high in April? Full year up 18 out of 19 times and up 18.8% on avg. 2.) S&P 500 7-day win streak? Full year higher 19 out of 20 times and up (once again)...
Finance OnlyFans Venture Faces Slim Odds of Success
So far, me starting a Finance OnlyFans is leading. I won't confirm nor deny yet, but those odds are slim.
New Stock Highs Explained: Optimism for Better Times
Stocks are back to new highs and many wonder how that is possible. In our latest Glass Half Full, Sonu and I discussed why this is happening and why better times could be likely. https://t.co/ZF7kxjqVAL
Breadth Signals Bull Market: AD Line Hits New Highs
Breadth leads price, same as it always has. S&P 500 advance/decline line didn't make new lows in late March, another clue the end wasn't near like so many were telling us. The A/D line moved to new highs last week, yet another...
80% of S&P 500 Above 20‑
S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day MA is over 80% currently. One of the big clues a major low as brewing back then was price broke to new lows in late March, while the number of stocks above their 20-day didn't....
Bull Markets Surviving Three Years Usually Persist for Years
The current bull market is 3.5 years old and up 99.2%. As we've noted many times, once bull markets get past their third birthday they rarely end anytime soon. Over the past past 50 years, 5 made it past their 3rd birthday...
Early 5-Day Gains Signal Strong 2026 Market Performance
The first 5 days in 2026 saw stocks up more than 1%. This might seem random, but it is actually one of the more accurate indicators out there. Higher for the year more than 87% of the time and up close...
Avoiding Recession Leads to Double‑Digit Stock Gains
We never expected a recession this year (including four weeks ago) and history shows that years that are able to avoid a recession see stocks up double digits nearly 7 out of 10 years. https://t.co/k2LDYKyttL
Record Earnings, AI Surge, Dovish Fed Signal Bullish Year
Good time to recall that only 12 times (the dirty dozen) have stocks lost more than double digits during the year and all of them had some very bad things happen. This year we have record earnings and profit margins, AI...
Predicting S&P Bottom: Hate Fades, 13-Day Rally
The day the S&P 500 bottomed l shared why a bear market wasn't likely. The hate this received was so extreme. Record 13 day rally since then. :)
Fixing Oil Needs Money, Time, Not Just Opinions
To repair the oil industry you need 💰 and time. Epic discussion with @Rory_Johnston on Facts vs Feelings. https://t.co/I7Ba5juC0L
S&P 500 Posts Historic Three‑Week Streak, Gains Accelerate
Records are made to be broken. First time in history the S&P 500 was up 3% for three consecutive weeks and each week gained more than the previous week. 🥇 https://t.co/fB3IpQSNbG
April S&P New Highs Historically Signal Strong Year
3 new highs in April for the S&P 500. Interesting as strong as this month is, it doesn't see a ton of new ATHs. But the 19 other years it hit a new ATH in April saw the full year higher...
Stocks Rise, Doubt Grows: Unprecedented Bullish Paradox
Building on what @fundstrat said about fuel in the tank... AAII bulls at a four-week low and S&P 500 at ATHs? It happened this week and it has NEVER happened before. Stocks are going higher, yet doubt is increasing. That's a...
Quad Four: Historically the Bullest Phase of the Cycle
This feels like a Quad Poor rally. Does anyone know if we are in Quad Four right now? That historically is by far the most bullish of all the Quads.
Bull Market Surge Continues: Stocks Hit New Weekend Highs
I'm set to join @FrankCNBC on @CNBCClosingBell at the top of the hour (3pm ET) today with @AAmoroso_1 to discuss this bull market and what could be next. Name a better way to coast into a weekend with stocks at...
High‑beta Breakout Signals Bullish Market Momentum
High beta relative to low volatility just broke out to new highs. This is another clue the bull is alive and well. Nice one @granthawkridge https://t.co/9PGQfIK6Os
S&P
The S&P 500 hasn't been up on Thursday and Friday of the same week in nearly three months. Could it happen today? If so, it would be another clue things have drastically improved, as traders are willing to hold over...
10‑Day S&P Rally Predicts 21% Year‑Later Gains
The recent 9.8% rally in 10 days for the S&P 500 was the 20th best 10-day rally in history. Looking at those other signals showed very strong future performance was quite common (didn't work in early 2000s though). Up a median of...
Fastest Oversold‑to‑Overbought Shift Since ’82 Signals Bull Strength
Only the 1982 lows saw the S&P 500 move from oversold to overbought quicker (11 days this time versus the '82 record of six days). Quick moves like this are consistent with potential lows and strong forward outperformance. Yet another...
Three‑week 3% S&P Rally Signals 30%+ Yearly
S&P 500 has a real shot at closing up 3% for three consecutive weeks. This has only happened twice in history. At the '82 lows and after COVID. Stocks were up 33.9% and 32.3% a year later after those signals....
S&P 500 Posts 7.9% Gain, 6th Best April Since 195
As we noted at the start of the month, things lined up for a big April, but this is even better than we could have imaged. S&P 500 currently up 7.9%, making it the 6th best April since 1950. https://t.co/jJIHkuF3eb
S&P 500 Posts Biggest 10‑day Rally Since 2020
The S&P 500 is up 9.83% the past 10 trading days, for the best 10 day gain since coming off the COVID lows in March 2020. https://t.co/iPKDHL8E1N
President's Sixth Year Boosts Markets, Best Since 1950s
We all know about how midterm years aren't that great for investors, but did you know that year six of a President's term is actually quite strong? Never lower going back to the 1950s. https://t.co/jxw9n7h2QT
Stocks Climb Despite Bad News, Says Analyst
Why are stocks higher with all the bad news? Nice one from @_JoshSchafer on earnings.
P/E Drops 18% as EPS Growth Accelerates
Nice charts from Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley on earnings. P/E multiple down 18% (pretty rare) and EPS growth continues to trend higher. Quite the bullish combo. Thanks @dailychartbook for sharing it in tonight's report. https://t.co/2wvXsU1CWb
Staples Lagging S&P Signals No Imminent Bear Market
One of the bigger clues we were never headed for a bear market and things were quite contained was the action in Staples. Staples have lagged the S&P 500 on a relative basis since mid-February. If the end was near like...
NVDA Poised for New Highs After False Breakdown
Mag 7 is coming back, just as everyone couldn't get rid of those names fast enough to buy Staples at 25x. Seriously, that happened just a couple weeks ago. Nice one from @scottcharts in his report this AM that shows NVDA...
Stable Breadth and Calm Credit Spreads Signal Near New Highs
Many are wondering how stocks could be one good day away from new highs again. There have been many clues things weren't as bad as they were telling us, but my two favorites are A/D lines and credit spreads. Breadth never broke...
S&P 500 Near Record High, Bull Market Still Alive
The S&P 500 moved to positive on the yr and is now only 1.32% away from a new all-time high. After an incredible 9 month win streak, we saw a perfectly normal 9.1% mild correction. They happen most yrs. We've said for...
Rare 7-Day >7% Streak Predicts Strong Future Gains
It is rare to see a 7-day win streak that also gains >7%. In fact, up 10% three months later would say to see an acceleration higher here could be the play. The past 30 years it only happened 3 other times...
Joining Rob Hart on WBBM Newsradio – Tune In
I'm coming up on @WBBMNewsradio with @RobHartWBBM in a couple minutes. Tune in! @Giersh https://t.co/ngzq1ncptX
First Thursday‑Friday Rally Since January’s Third Week
Stocks green on a Monday is nothing new for 2026. What would be much different is an up Thursday and Friday. In fact, the third week of January is the last time Thursday and Friday were higher during the same week....
Eight Weeks of Bearish Sentiment Rare Near All‑time Highs
I looked at the 19 other times in history we saw more bears than bulls for eight weeks in a row. Usually stocks were much further away from ATHs. In fact, last time this close to new ATHs and 8 in a...
April S&P 500 Historically Down, Now up 4%
The S&P 500 has been lower in April the past two years. Only once in history was it down three in a row ('85-'87). Up more than 4% so far this month. https://t.co/eWz6ywTpqG
Hedge Funds Turn Bearish, Raising Unwind Risk
Goldman Prime Book shows hedge funds are more bearish now than at the Liberation Day lows. The potential for a serious unwind higher is real. @dailychartbook with another gem. https://t.co/BYv3uPRt2G
Two‑Week 3%+ S&P Surge Predicts Strong Year‑Ahead Returns
More good news for the bulls. S&P 500 up >3% back to back weeks is historically quite bullish. Above average returns across the board and higher a year later 86.7% of the time. https://t.co/vVfLF8fE7P
Need Friday Close Above 200‑Day MA for Optimism
Thursday recently tied the longest losing streak ever at 9 in a row. Well, Friday is down five in a row. We get asked all the time what would turn you more optimistic? A Friday close above the 200-day MA...
Software Hits Feb Lows, RSI Shows Positive Divergence
Nice one from @FrankCappelleri in his note this AM. Software is back to the late February lows, but positive divergence with RSI. https://t.co/G96kkZXR5P
Mild Pullback Triggers Bear‑Market Fear, Cash Surge
On a relatively normal 9% mild pullback we saw fear levels consistent with bear markets and 100-year pandemics. Amazing chart from @MacroCharts that shows the spike in money markets and cash like ETFs hit some truly extreme levels recently. https://t.co/dS2yJz8rLA
NYSE A/D Line Defies Doom, Bull Market Persists
I know all the market breadth experts said the end was near this time two weeks ago, but the NYSE A/D line simply pulled back to a longer-term trend line before accelerating higher. Will it make a new high? Yes, as...
S&P 500 A/D Line Holds, Hinting at Bullish Turn
Nine days ago we pointed out how the S&P 500 A/D line didn't make a new low, even though price did. This bullish call wasn't popular at the time, but this is consistent with potentially better times ahead. https://t.co/HIoWdB8H7c
7‑Day Wins Historically Signal Strong
The past 20 years that saw a 7-day win streak also saw the S&P 500 higher for that full year 95% of the time and up 18.8% on avg. The only year this didn't work was 2000 and the tech bubble....
Six Straight S&P Gains Forecast 11% Median Return
Six for Six S&P 500 up six days in a row and up 6%? Above average returns across the board, with a median return of another nearly 11% 3-months later. https://t.co/bM6BsGKqAZ