Historical Feb‑March Weakness Predicts Upcoming Market Slip
It is what it is, weakness in February and the early parts of March are quite common the past two decades. We've been saying expect a banana peel and we are on it. https://t.co/fTK460vLTF
S&P 500 Records Smallest Two‑Month Range—Tightness Won’t Last
Good reminder that we just had the smallest first two month range EVER for the S&P 500. Tight ranges don't last forever. https://t.co/4UYArPODOU
Historic Low Range Hints at Upcoming Market Volatility
This year is the smallest range EVER for the first two months of a new year at only 2.7% for the S&P 500. Pretty incredible when you look at all the big winners and losers out there, yet, the overall market...
Stocks Trend Upward Despite Current Fear; History Repeats
Good time to dust off the Chart of Fears. Yes, what is happening now is confusing and scary. But we've seen many other times like this and stocks have always moved from bottom left to upper right. https://t.co/H9xMLrLKC1
EPS Gains Prove Bull Market Still Strong
2027 EPS up another couple bucks the past two weeks. Yes, the headlines are scary, but this is why this bull market is alive and well. https://t.co/G1hArdVPz9
Bearish Signals Mount, yet Strong Months Ahead
AAII bears>bulls two weeks in a row NAAIM lowest since May '25 Historic shorts on software 10-day equity put/call ratio highest since after Liberation Day Record equity outflows from institutions One of smallest ranges to a year ever Now here's two of the better months on...
S&P 500 Advance/Decline Line Reaches New High, Signals Strength
The S&P 500's advance/decline line hit a new high on Friday. I'm pretty old fashioned, but I still think that is a good sign. https://t.co/6slLIZINHZ
Tight Bollinger Bands Signal Potential Upside Volatility
Futures open down only 1% for the S&P 500. Bollinger Bands are about as tight as they've been in years. The spring is coiling. How many think it'll be volatility to the upside? https://t.co/QMWz06txWk
Late-February S&P Dips Historically Precede Major Lows
Looking at the past 20 years, it is perfectly normal for S&P 500 weakness in late February and into mid-March, then a major low forms. Yes, 2009 and 2020 are a big reason why, still worth noting. https://t.co/di2DeekJx8
Geopolitical Crises Cause Short-Term Pain, 5% Median Rebound.
Here's a list of major geopolitical events since WWII. Up a median of 5% six months later. All of them felt really bad at the time. https://t.co/Jb3QXL0L05
Bitcoin Rebounds, Surpasses Pre‑strike Levels
Bitcoin rebounded from the drop last night and is now higher than before the strike. https://t.co/xUctQMQ4j0
Bitcoin's $65k Hold Boosts Software and Tech Prospects
A couple weeks later and Bitcoin has held that $65k area. If this turns higher (and I think it will), it will be a nice positive for software and tech. You know, the areas no one wants to own because...
Don't Overreact to Hindenburg Omens at Market Peaks
Yes, some Hindenburg Omens triggered near major peaks. But a lot didn't. Don't get sucked into this clickbait. When semis are at ATHs, don't get too bearish. https://t.co/zLh8chvvQx
Hindenburg Mentions Rarely Signal Imminent Market Bottom
Similar to the November lows, when they all start saying the word Hindenburg often, you know we are close to lows. We've seen 225 Hindenburg Omens since 1970 and if you look closely you'll see the great majority of them...
S&P 500 Rises Ten Consecutive Months Amid Fear
The S&P 500 is currently up on the month on a total return basis. This would be 10 months in a row stocks were higher. It is simply amazing how much fear and worry we are seeing with this happening.
Midterm Years Naturally Bring Stock Market Volatility
Yes, stocks in the US have been choppy so far this year. But looking at a four-year Presidential cycle, this is actually quite common for mid-term years. https://t.co/gX328BtAzw
S&P 500's Tight Range Signals Imminent Breakout
Over the past four months, the S&P 500 has traded in less than a 7% range. This is about as tight as things usually get, meaning a bigger move is likely over the coming months. Will it be up or down? https://t.co/vzY9JAuphI
Citrini Predicts 38.2% Retrace by Mid‑2028
So the Citrini piece is looking for about a 38.2% retracement by mid 2028 after an October '26 peak. Fibonacci is everywhere. 👀 @JC_ParetsX https://t.co/Ppnb1uG5Xl
AI Fears Create Buying Opportunity for Strong Companies
Tech is getting hammered on AI worries, but is this really just another opportunity to buy solid companies when they are cheap? We think so. https://t.co/YjUXwZUJx9
Core PCE Inflation Surges: Over Half Exceed 3%
There are 178 components to core PCE and 48% of them saw YoY inflation >3%. This was 42% a year ago. We continue to think inflation will run closer to 3% than 2% and we do have a little bit of...
Stocks Soar; Economy Avoids Recession for Years
Stocks have had one of their best three year runs in history and the economy hasn't sniffed a recession. https://t.co/hBhFjc8em2
Broadest Market Rally yet Shatters “Seven‑stock” Myth
For years they said only seven stocks were outperforming. It wasn't true, but it is what we were told. Today? We are seeing the broadest rally in history. https://t.co/bt2fsADcXC
Stay Overweight on Equities, Still Diversify Globally
I joined the @MilkRoadMacro show this week. Laid out why we remain overweight equities, but you want to still own other parts of the 🌍. https://t.co/X8faci8XLY
Geopolitical Shocks Spark Volatility,
With tensions high around Iran, here's an updated table of major geopolitical events and how the stock market did after. Yes, some of them definitely caused volatility, but the longer-term median returns are fairly normal. https://t.co/477EvHtgAn
Yield Curve Inverted 43 Months, Recession Still Unseen
The yield curve inverted 43 mos ago ... still no recession Nearly everyone told us a recession was coming. If you didn't, you were mocked and told it was Quad Four People say the NFC winning the Super Bowl being good for...
Bears Outnumber Bulls as Jobless Claims Hit Year Low
More bears than bulls in the AAII poll, first time since the late November low. Also, initial jobless claims at the lowest level this year. Not the worst combo. https://t.co/eMyO6gjFm0
Missing Top 10 Days Slashes Stock Returns
Last year, the S&P 500 gained 16.4%, but if you missed the best 10 days that dropped to minus 9.5%. Since '90, stocks have gained 7.7% a year, but if you missed the 10 best days each year? It goes down...
Industrial Earnings Surge 26% Against Negative Forecast
Earnings growth for industrials is up more than 26%. It was expected to be negative this time two months ago. That is simply incredible. https://t.co/MTxPkrvtdA
S&P 500 Hits Best Revenue Growth Since 2022, Yet Peaks
Good news and bad news? Best quarter for S&P 500 revenue growth since Q3 '22. But this quarter is likely the peak for revenue growth. https://t.co/Dp33tx0bca
S&P Advance/Decline New Highs Signal Continued Rally
More new highs in the S&P 500 advance/decline line suggests price will follow. They keep talking about Hindenburg, but this says continue to ignore them. https://t.co/o48OrEZF4o
Amazon's Historic Loss Streak Meets Surprising Stock Highs
If you'd have told me Amazon just had one of it's longest losing streaks in history, I probably wouldn't have expected stocks to be flirting with new highs. https://t.co/kXBq6SpLEA
Dow Poised for Rare 10-Month Winning Streak
The Dow would be up 10 months in a row if it is higher in February. Since 1900, that has only happened four other times. https://t.co/0AB887hP7Q
Dow Shuffle: Exxon's Rise, Salesforce's Decline
One August 31, 2020, Exxon Mobil was kicked out of the Dow. It was replaced by Salesforce. Exxon is up 271% and Salesforce is down 32%. https://t.co/euMlopjZdV
Semis Surge While Tech Splits Into Winners, Losers
If all you knew was that semis were up double digits, you'd never expect tech to be this weak. It is like tech is being split into two groups, the stuff that goes up and the stuff that goes down.
After 9-Month Rally, February Pause Is Healthy
The Dow is up 9 months in a row and we are in the banana peel month of February. Yes, they might blame it on AI or something else, just know a little pause here and now is perfectly normal and...
Labor Market Stabilizing: Health Care Leads, Construction Rebounds
Yes, most of the jobs last month (and the previous 18 months) have come from health care/social assistance. But if things were so bad would there be 32k in construction? Or 5k added in manufacturing? The labor market isn't great by...
Friday the 13th Rally Masks Monday’s 18% Drop
Stocks are up an annualized 22.6% on Friday the 13th. What really should scare you is a simple case of The Mondays, as stocks are down 18.3% on Monday. #FridayThe13th https://t.co/M74coxbyXF
February's Second Half: Beware the Banana Peel Danger
We've been saying all month that February is the banana peel month. Be aware the second half of the month is when trouble usually happens. https://t.co/Nv67B6dKQS
Software Multiples Hit 2014 Lows Amid AI Fears
Software earnings have been quite resilient, yet prices have collapsed over AI worries. As a result, multiples are the cheapest they've been since 2014. Sometimes things are cheap for a reason, but what if this is another DeepSeek moment? Nice charts...
Top Picks: Hundreds of Weekly Charts Highlighted
Our team probably creates a couple hundred charts each week. Here are some of our favorites from last week in the @CarsonResearch Charts of the Week. https://t.co/UIFr74RPu4
Market
Great analysis in his note this week on some positives and negatives from @scottcharts. But breadth continues to be the one big reason to expect this bull to continue imo. https://t.co/WO4e9HXrem
Global Equities Outpacing US in 2026, Stay Overweight
"It is deja vu all over again." Yogi Berra The US stock market is doing fine, but the rest of the world is soaring so far in '26. This is similar to what we saw last year and is a big...
