Low VIX Futures Volatility Signals Overbought, Potential Bearish Turn
"In the graph below, the 20-day Historical Volatilities of the various $VIX futures contracts have remained at extremely low levels for a couple of weeks. That is a very overbought condition and can prove to be quite bearish when those HV’s begin to rise." @optstrategist https://t.co/z3jn4kQZVd
Rally Fueled by Mechanical Chase, Not Real Buying
NOTE: “the entire rally from the March lows has been built on a “mechanical chase.” Without real spot buying, market fragility could be exposed quickly when the stratospheric gamma squeeze ends.” My “Flows Over Fundamentals” framing since March 30th lows.
China's Military Dominance and 2027 Taiwan Reunification Unaccounted
The hubris of Trump/Bessent IS China: “China leads in most military domains - and it's not even close” And China reunifying with Taiwan in 2027 is not priced in.
AI‑Driven Chip Boom Fuels Space Stock Surge
Semi Sentiment Soars With Space Plays $SPX $SMH $UFO $RKLB ... $ASTS next? Semiconductor earnings are explosing with stocks driven by AI demand forecasts while the space sector is ready to launch again. https://t.co/fT29UnAzEv
Tokyo Faces Only Panic Hike or Yen Collapse
🎯 “the 160 line is going to break, and the next time it breaks, Tokyo’s response options collapse to two: a panic BoJ hike that detonates the bond market, or sit back and watch the yen go to 165, then 170....
Warsh Seeks Fed Balance‑sheet Cuts Post‑LCR Easing
Serious question for fixed income experts: Warsh wants to reduce the Fed balance sheet after bank regulations are eased - specifically the liquidity coverage ratio requirements that forces banks to hold large reserve balances (~$3 trillion). So if/when the reserve requirements are...
Bearish Bond Divergence Signals Liquidity Stress Ahead
Curious… “The daily Advance-Decline (A-D) Line for high yield corporate bonds is making a bearish divergence versus the SP500. This is a concern because it conveys a message saying that there are liquidity problems.” @McClellanOsc I would say this is a...
Iran Risk Still Unpriced, Arab Spring 2.0 Delayed
Arab Spring 2.0 - part of my "Iran Risk Not Priced In" - is not removed only delayed.😢 @anasalhajji
U.S. Holds $49B Intel Stake, Locked Until Aug 27
INTC Aug 27 mark your calendars. The Intel deal included $8.9 billion for 10% of Intel at $20.47 a share. As of Wednesday afternoon, the U.S. government’s 433.3 million shares in Intel were valued around $49 billion, $40 billion more...
Moderna Launches mRNA Hantavirus Vaccine Development in 2024
Did ya know… Moderna began working on an mRNA vaccine for hantavirus in 2024. $MRNA
Approach Key SPX/IWM Levels, Lock in Profits Now
Meltup Into Careful Yesterday I warned: as we near my $SPX 7425 & $IWM 290 - and $VXN is green with $QQQ - it's not time to be complacent. Big client wins in $QCOM $DOCN $IREN etc also mean time to lock...
Money Shifts From Hardware to Software Ahead of AMD Report
MONEY ROTATES: into IGV from SMH ... see them fall? AMKR, CIEN, AMD, ARM, MRVL, COHR... And what did I write specifically - MAY 3RD?!? "Hardware Rotation Into Software is on my radar after AMD reports Wednesday and before Non-Farm Payrolls Friday." https://t.co/YjOCAGPxRS
Unlimited AI Demand Justifies Any Price, Says Critic
“If you subscribe to the “infinite demand at any price” for AI, then it’s all absolutely reasonable.” @countdraghula 🎩🤓 https://t.co/oj0Xv5EWQ6
Swing Longs Prove Effective in Recent Chart Reads
Swing Longs Are Working Just chart read - no AI mania was involved in this decision making. Lucky or Good 😉 $DOCN $CSCO $QCOM $CDNS $ADM $ZM https://t.co/sXvN3NC3an
CRWV Reports Negative EBIT, No Interest Coverage
“Reminder that $CRWV has negative EBIT (4Q annualized) using 7-yr life for its GPU depreciation. Zero coverage of interest.” @RealJimChanos