Bulls Fueled by Groupthink, Not Fundamentals
Raging Bulls Run On Groupthink $SPX $AMZN $GOOGL $META $MSFT $NVDA Flows over Fundamentals, Part 3 😉 #LiveTradingRoom https://t.co/2x9sbANZVq
Trump's Oil Seizures Raise Investor Trade Dilemmas
Trump is stealing other countries’ oil. And because Trump is blockading Venezuela & Iran for confiscation - literal armed robbery - this is seen as Wall Street friendly. As a long-term investor (no ODTE punks pls), do you care? If so, how...
Infrastructure Decay Costs Trillions, War Spending Soars
A new study estimates $1.03T of wear and tear on roads, bridges and buildings across infrastructure in 2,000 U.S. cities, over 3x municipal bond debt and 4x pension debt - WSJ The war in Iran costs America two billion dollars each day,...
Michael Burry Dumps Entire GameStop Position
For all those in my comment section: MICHAEL BURRY SELLS ALL HIS $GME GAMESTOP STOCK
SPX Breaks $7,191 Ceiling, Now Acts as Floor
"l aready reminded my SPX $7191 target/ceiling broke - so now it’s the floor - but is also where we revisit on any sudden news of escalation."
Chase Shorts on FDX, UPS, NV
Chase Shorts In Strong Up-Tape: $FDX, $UPS, $NVDA Live trading room has its advantages - spotting the AMZN news that hit FDX & UPS for some nice chase short action with NVDA weakness while grabbing cheap protection before market triggered on...
Option Market Still Signals Limbo, Updated Call Confirms
Playing The Limbo Bigger picture, I updated my call that option market is still calling for… https://t.co/KnZYGLpxLL
Iran Warns U.S. Interference in Hormuz Breaches Ceasefire
Iran sees it differently: "Any American interference in the new maritime regime of the Strait of Hormuz will be considered a violation of the ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf would not be managed by Trump's delusional...
Synthetic Bull Rally Must Keep Momentum, Not Stall
A Synthetic Bull Rally Cannot Afford To Stall 💫So How Manipulated Was It? 💫Raging Bulls Run On Groupthink 💫A Synthetic Bull Rally Cannot Afford To Stall 💫Early Mid-Week Market Thoughts https://t.co/5JLwnTGmRp
S&P 500 Drops Profit Rule, Becomes PE Dumping Ground
On S&P 500 Rule Changes: “The S&P 500 is removing long-standing profitability requirements — the “enshittification” of the index. This change potentially turns the index into a “dumping ground” for Private Equity to offload unprofitable, highly leveraged companies onto retail index...
All Major Tech Giants Reporting Record Profits
Devil is in the details but raging bulls just run on groupthink: Amazon just posted record profits. Google just posted record profits. Microsoft just posted record profits. Meta just posted record profits.
Tether’s Founder Tied to Epstein Funding Sparks Fraud Allegations
Somehow I missed this... Tether was founded by Brock Pierce, who took investment from Epstein to fund Crypto Currency Partners which in turn founded the Tether fraud. The crypto cabal is so creepy.
Trump Declares Iran War over After Final Blow Briefing
Thursday: US CENTCOM Commander briefs President Trump on a "final blow" to Iran, Fox News reports. Friday: Trump administration officially tells Congress the war against Iran is over, AP reports.
Big Tech Funding Capex by Burning Free Cash
Under the radar and bears watching: Forward earnings expansion financed by FCF destruction. “Alphabet: $73B FCF in 2025, guiding $180–190B capex in 2026. Meta raised its 2026 range to $125–145B against $44B trailing FCF. Amazon TTM FCF compressed ~95% to...
Dealers Short Gamma as SPX Rises 2.3%
What did I write Wed AM to warn clients: "Dealers enter aggressive short gamma should the index move 2-4% higher. via GS" And what has SPX moved since Wed low? +2.3%. Careful late bulls...
Manufacturing, Not Chemistry, Drives Solid‑State Battery Disruption
“Solid-state batteries may disrupt lithium-ion more than markets price in. They use lithium-metal anodes and solid electrolytes, boosting energy density, safety, range, and charging speed. But success depends less on chemistry than new manufacturing...” @GraphCall Geoffrey's portfolio can be found...
Tech Rally Defies Stagflation as ISM Stalls
Basically, the call wall (SPX $7200 was ceiling/now floor) keeps getting rolled up as AI/Tech/Memory names beat, while the real economy enters stagflation. US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX UNCHANGED AT 52.7; EST. 53.2 US ISM MFG PRICES RISE TO 84.6, HIGHEST SINCE...
Google’s AI Bets Turn $3B Into $112B
Has anyone pulled out from $GOOGL earnings the AI as a business vs investment? Google put $3B into Anthropic in 2023 worth $112B on paper now. Their $1B SpaceX bet from 2015 is now worth $107B on paper now. Just askin'
SPX Upside Bet Hits 7209 Target
As posted pre-market MONDAY: “I’ve got SPX 7191 tagging as upside bet” We tagged 7209 today/EOM close. https://t.co/k9g9uy0uak
Shin‑Etsu's Naphtha Shortage Signals Chip Supply Risk
“Japan’s largest chemical company, Shin-Etsu Chemical, has withheld its full-year forecast,citing supply constraints on naphtha-derived products due to the war. Shin-Etsu, which also makes silicon wafers for semiconductors, says it’s difficult to “reasonably predict” performance for the fiscal year. Its...
Option Market Targets SPX 7300 Amid Weak Asymmetry
And, we are going to SPX $7300 because the option market tells us so. Am I doing this right? 😉
China Shifted Credit From Property to Industry, Deflating Bubble
@GraphCall as you predicted Geoffrey - over two years ago 🎩 China’s real estate market bubble has not created systemic risk and speculation was rerouted into productive assets. https://t.co/hwkQFNyk7w
AI Rally Risks Flip to Sell‑off Amid Profit‑taking
McElligott agrees: “If profit-taking starts to hit into this increasingly fragile setup, with AI looking “too far, too fast” into high-bar earnings, a growing risk of “sell the news” flows, and bonds selling off on renewed inflation pressure, the current extremely...
All Major Rates Climbing: Oil, Yields, Dollar Surge
Higher oil Higher yields Higher dollar Higher USDJPY Higher SOFR Market, show me you care.
Markets Expect Rate Hike, Not Cut, by April 2027
Markets are now pricing in rate hike rather than a rate cut by the April 2027 meeting. Yup. #FOMC
SOX at 60× P/E: Euphoric, Limited Upside
SOX index at 60x P/E is what you would call ‘euphoric’ or ‘priced to perfection’. Market doesn’t care to consider the alternative, yet, but that also doesn’t give it a lot of upside room - outside of a meltup ala...
ISM Data Could Pivot Semiconductor Rally and AI Capex
ISM Thursday... Why it could matter to semi returns $SMH sentiment & fundamentals as driver to market’s bullish momentum & AI capex cycle should show in ISM manufacturing. If it doesn't... rotation into defensives can trigger exposing the fragile upside to markets....
Semi Market
Damned If We Do and Damned If We Don't 💫Semi Surge Seems Stressed 💫Semi Reflexivity In Full View 💫The Stealth Buyer Still In The Room https://t.co/ObymQYFfzf
US Sees No Nuclear Deal, War Unlikely; Trump Backs Indefinite Blockade
“US officials say the conflict with Iran is unlikely to end with a nuclear deal, and a resumption of the war is unlikely. Trump is comfortable with an indefinite blockade” - WSJ Luke leads a solid Contributor Portfolio for members at...
US Bans Chip Tool Shipments to Huahong's Facilities
The U.S. ordered numerous chip equipment companies to halt tool shipments to two facilities of Huahong, China’s second-largest chipmaker, according to sources. https://t.co/9lzUXgpLQr
Rate Hikes Can't Curb Energy Inflation, only Damage Growth
BOJ & ECB can't resolve energy-driven inflation shocks with rate hikes. But it can pull forward demand destruction, lower economic growth, and soverieign debt "issues". https://t.co/TQeDyoABBd
Oil Cartel Shows Serious Cracks, Says Geoffrey
Geoffrey has written abundantly on this topic for clients: that the Oil cartel had cracks - serious cracks. #UAE #OPEC https://t.co/WNKTZOV734
Token Billing Becomes Inevitable for AI Subscriptions, Warns Microsoft Shift
"I think it’s inevitable that the majority of AI subscriptions move to token-based billing, especially as both Anthropic and OpenAI have now done so with their enterprise customers. The fact that Microsoft moved GitHub Copilot subscribers to token-based is also a...
China’s AI Infrastructure Edge Outpaces US Winner‑take‑all Race
THIS news of #Deepseek #Kimi merger fits TWO of my MAIN themes for US Tech: In China: AI is Infrastructure In US: AI is Winner Take All China has the yuge advantage. Also my Jan 2025 article playing out: THIS IS THE MANHATTAN PROJECT 2.0 https://t.co/Zpsvm0dAX0...
OpenAI IPO Unlikely, Could Impact Semiconductor Returns
So does OpenAIs IPO matter to semi returns? And by ‘matter’ I mean, not having one… OpenAI’s Q4 2026 IPO Might not Happen, by @friedmandave $SMH $QQQ $SPX https://t.co/XJDawToZrm
Wars Fuel Inflation While Fed Pledges Rate Cuts
Wars are inflationary... Across the globe, inflation rates are rising along with inflation. h/t @charliebilello But here at home, new Fed Chair Warsh says he's going to somehow get the FOMC to cut rates? https://t.co/O0NyvYUtKm
War‑driven Urea Loss Fuels Food Price Surge
Wars are inflationary... Urea output lost translates to higher food prices. And this is even before factoring in the full impact of rising fertilizer and plastics prices.
Iran Conflict Drains U.S. $2 B Daily, Hits Trillion
Wars are inflationary... The war in Iran costs America two billion dollars each day, says war budgeting expert Linda Bilmes—and will cost at least one trillion overall. https://t.co/ThflbSxlHF
Hormuz Closure Sparks Unpriced Supply Shock, Markets Stagnant
the Hormuz has been closed for 58 days with no end in sight, and even if there was one, it would take 6 months to clear the mines while insurance companies stay risk-off. Supply shocks are still not priced in....
China Confirmed as Global Scientific Leader, Military Ascendancy Looms
China as world’s top scientific power was assumed, but now confirmed. How long before they rank as top military power as well?
Market Floor Sets up Fragile Upside After Stagnation
Fragile Upside 💫“Going Nowhere Fast” Is About To Change 💫The Floor Meets Crash Protection 💫Fragile Upside 💫Sell In May… https://t.co/k9g9uy0uak
Vol‑control Funds Auto‑buy as Volatility Falls, Fueling Rally
Update on mechanical buying: Also reminder: Vol-control funds, as long as realized vol continues to drop, can continue to auto buy & fuel this rally. Even if Iran War escalates, or a MAG5 name reporting this week disappoints, etc. That’s why I track...
AI Magnificent Seven Propel S&P; without Them Market Falls
“Exclude the AI version of the Magnificent Seven stocks—Broadcom alongside Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia—and the market value of the S&P is actually down. Put another way, these seven are lifting the entire market.” WSJ https://t.co/Cdztzsv5jH
White House to Subsidize Farmers Using Tariff Revenue
"Phosphate tariffs raised fertilizer costs by an estimated $6.9 billion for American farmers. Now the White House wants to fix the impact with subsidies funded by the tariff revenue, recycling revenue instead of removing the original trade barriers" @clark_packard https://t.co/TCWYvmFFVo
Trump Pushes China Into Sanctions Ahead of Summit
Target Isn’t Just Iran - Trump Wants China To Submit Too https://t.co/QS77FdK6Yx Hengli, a private oil refinery in China, in US crosshairs… sanctions of size right before the Xi-Trump Trade Summit meetings mid-May. Not subtle.
Treasury Swaps Shield GCC, Preventing UST Yield Spike
An important point of view (on Treasury-supplied USD swaps for GCC countries) comes from our very own, @GraphCall: https://t.co/RHN9TFGR1f This exchange of currency - without selling held collateral - avoids a GCC-forced dump of UST to get liquidity while oil revenue sales...
PE Sells Top Assets, Forcing Redemptions and NAV Decline
As Geoffrey so eloquently puts it: The Private Equity boys go and liquify their best assets first. Why? Because they can liquidify those, then they serve redemptions. But as redemptions continue, they are running out of good assets and then the NAVs...
Dealers Guard SPX Floor Amid Summer Downside Hedge
What are Vegas odds for gap down Monday? (Likely gets bought in a week, but still.) Dealers are defending $SPX $7100 floor past six days, where $SMH has risen 42% in 19 days - all the while institutions are hedging for...
Foreign Private Capital Now Outpaces Central Banks in Treasuries
Yup, Foreign Private Capital Has Overtaken Central Banks in the Treasury Market h/t Apollo/Slok And @Econimica has the breakdown below https://t.co/O8Md1T2160
Rally Fragile as Short‑Covering and AI Bull Run Fade
When This Non-Stop Rally Turns Fragile $SPX #crudeoil #IranWar An historic short-covering & AI/tech bull-run despite war escalation supply shocks & sticky-high oil prices as the mechanical buying peters out soon... makes for a fragile rally come May/June. https://t.co/4JsMqpa0x7