Ceasefire‑Driven Rally Likely Short‑Lived Ahead Weekend Risk
Relief Rally Ends Ahead Of Weekend Risk $SPX $VIX Mechanical buying & short covering made for an historical bounce on 'ceasefire' news. But is it really safe? https://t.co/rBuCLlLEIj
Crowd Mis‑hedged Tails, Expect Bull‑trap Stabilization
Crowd was under-hedged for the right-tail and over- hedged for the left-tail. My “stabilization into bull trap” call: https://t.co/7eiBkt8qyD
Pakistani Media Misleads on Iranian Delegation Arrival
Media is wrong: "Pakistani media confirms the arrival of the Iranian delegation for negotiations, with main talks between Iran and America scheduled for tomorrow." but they bury the lede: "there is no confirmed official information about the arrival of Qalibaf and Araghchi in...
Analyzing Rally Limits Ahead of Weekend Risk
I wanted to do a deep-dive before "weekend risk" and to highlight where I see this rally pushing back. 😉
GCC Alignment with Iran Threatens US Investments and Dollar Dominance
Iran calling up its neighbors to resist US-Israel. Let’s assume some of the GCC members fall in line - out of survival - what happens to their US investments and USD hegemony?
Fragile Ceasefire Sparks 6865 S&P Target
A Fragile ‘Ceasefire’ & 6865 $SPX Price Target This morning's premarket rant - before coffee. I should have said $6845. After we hit it + given $184M in Sept $6900/6910 calls were sold today, my VIX 19.29 bounce level is likely in...
Oil Plumm
Oil had its 2nd largest drop in 35 years. Just a few days after Binance listed its oil futures - with 100X leverage. Yeah, that Binance - the money-laundering crypto founder who was pardoned by Trump. Then 6 million barrels of Brent and...
Markets Rally on Weak Fundamentals; Oil, Dollar, Yields Likely Hold
"CEASEFIRE" and $SPX 6800 – Now What? Markets ripping yet risk remains high with fundamentals weak behind the move. My bet: Oil, Dollar, Yields & VIX won't fall as much as bulls hope. Also, some trading tips on hedging swing short exposure. https://t.co/by1pQIVgSP
Iran Strikes Kuwait Power and Desalination Facilities
'Ceasefires' are easy to do. "Kuwait reports that 3 power and water desalination facilities were hit by Iran, causing significant damage to generation and desalination units." https://t.co/lggRzOQR1P
Power Shifts Offer Hope Amid US‑Israel Conflict
#RESPECT #Spain Power shifts are occurring and it's the only thing hopeful in this ghastly US-Israel War on Iran-Lebanon.
No Deal, No Traffic: Hormuz Stalemate Persists
Nothing has been agreed to between US-Iran-Israel-Lebanon-GCC No ship is going through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had the preposterous imagination to promise a join US-Iranian "toll-booth system”. 🤡 https://t.co/MHiLNxRSuc The Never-Ending War Continues
Volatility Persists; Upside Calls Hedge Downside Risk
Binary events are NOT easy to call or trade with conviction. Some think they can smell the Trump TACO in the room: “civilization - decimated” talk. Escalate to de-escalate game theory stuff. Not my game. What I smell are charts, flows &...
Bulls Remain Resilient on AI, Earnings, Cheap Valuations
Earnings Expectations Rising With Tail Risk $SPX $QQQ #Valuations Why market bulls can stay resilient despite risks: committed AI narrative, rising earnings expectations, valuations "on sale", and 'stable' yields & USD. Until they aren't. https://t.co/5NVOuV0Jdz
6% Yield Trigger Could Force US Debt Restructuring
See my 10Y yield targets then read this quote by Jeff Gundlach: “Well, I think my base case is that the long-term interest rates on treasuries will move higher until such time as they get to a level that is difficult...
US Misreads Iran: Persistent Naval Threat Despite Limited Doctrine
"US/Trump camp misreads: - They underestimate Iranian naval capability because it doesn’t resemble US blue‑water doctrine. - They assume one or two massive blows will “teach Iran a lesson” and force retreat - In reality, Iran is structurally incentivized to...
Global Shift: Gold and Yuan Rise as Dollar Recycling Declines
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
Only Free Markets, Not Central Banks, Set Rates
"Central banks in general—and the Fed in particular—are on a mission impossible. They don’t know what the interest rate should be. Nobody does. That’s something only a voluntary market of savers and borrowers, dealing in honest money, can determine." #DebtSpiral
Macro Volatility Returns: Inflation Threats and Earnings
Stabilization Into A Trap 💫Searching For A Bottom 💫Another Trump Ultimatum 💫Mechanical Flows Waiting For Gamma Flip 💫The New Macro-Driven Volatility Regime 💫Earnings - Opportunity or As Good As It Gets 💫The Week Ahead: Inflation Threatens https://t.co/Y1dcSGIrPf
Iran Strikes Kuwait Facilities Over US Base Presence
Patricia asks a good question since US isn’t protecting Kuwait. In fact, in retaliation for Kuwait hosting American bases, Iranian drones struck Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery (per Kuwait Petroleum Corp) today, and Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity - which is a power/desalination...
NFP Beats, Unemployment Drops, yet No Fed Cuts Ahead
NFP beats, for now. Big picture, the chart shows a deceleration trend - with some some big monthly swings of late. Unemployment down to 4.3% = no Fed rate cuts. Is good news bad or good - I lose track ;-) Wage growth...
AI Hype Bubble Bursts Like Subprime Crisis
The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here Ed Zitron's zinger of a post: 🎩 @edzitron https://t.co/6jiFAU1D6l
Iran Risk Unpriced Despite Trump's Stone Age Threat
Pretty simple, the fundamentals go like this: "Iran will be sent back to the Stone Age, where they belong." Trump, last night. Me, on repeat: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In https://t.co/pIYOLN90wD
Bitcoin: Rogue Money, Failed Hedge, Pure Greed Asset
Can I get an AMEN?! Geoffrey @GraphCall and I have been preaching this for years. $BTCUSD Bitcoin is RogueMoney - good for some in need & most for greed.
Memory Stocks Tumble, Triggering Shorts Into Data Centers
Shorting Memory Darling & Data Center Flower $MU $BE Memory stocks like $MU and peers have broken down after earnings, hitting key downside targets and confirming short setups across the group... and spilling into data center-related names like $BE. https://t.co/eWlx1m14Oa
Rising Input Costs Challenge Inflation and Growth
Soooo are higher input costs a concern as an inflation or growth hit? Hard to keep up...
Semis Begin Reverting After Today's Move
Yes, even after today ;-) Semis Are Just Starting To Mean Revert $SMH $MU #LiveTradingRoom https://t.co/AhrFbzFcVB
High‑Leverage Futures: A Dangerous Inflation Hedge
Of course - give the fox full power over the hen house; manipulate the futures market with 100X leverage as 'inflation hedge'. ⚠️🧨#Binance https://t.co/HmmQvifAKN
JPM Collar Pin May Boost Markets, Ease VIX Backwardation
"so the JPM collar pin of 6475 for end-of-day Tuesday ** could ** help to pull up markets to relieve the VIX backwardation we are in" 🤣😇 Lucky init.
Iran Threatens US Tech Firms Amid Looming War Timeline
Trump out saying AGAIN, 'war against Iran won’t last much longer & Strait of Hormuz will reopen automatically after US exit and other nations can reopen it' (NY Post) 🙄 Just as Iran's IRGC plans to attack US companies in the...
Quantum Threat Exposes Weaknesses in Digital Money Security
Musk mocking maxis 🤣 Crypto / Bitcoin hackable⏳ Google quantum warning😉 Also means:👿 Digital money security a joke And tradfi encryption at banks, online, even military…are at bigly risk.🔥 What else can ya’ll stack? 🤔🤨 https://t.co/InXsoR1LG3
Trump Threatens US Strike on Iran's Energy if Talks Collapse
Trump warns the US may strike Iran’s energy infrastructure if talks fail - per WSJ
Fragile Markets Reward Patient Bears Amid Rising Risks
Fragile Markets For Banks, Bonds & OPEX $XLF $TLT $SPX Shorts on "support" but markets are not safe. Rising #crudeoil, yields, dollar & VIX still reward patient bears. OPEX flows may offer brief stabilization - emphasis on *may*. https://t.co/XIcBupeCGG
Private Credit Stress
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
AI Data Centers Face Imminent Production Bomb Threat
Enjoy your wee bounce. There is a ticking production bomb to AI data centers coming SOON. https://t.co/idc2fPCIv0
Iran War Risk Unpriced, Expect Deeper Market Pullback
As warned: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In A frank talk with @RealJohnGaltFla of @MacroEdgeRes predicting a deeper pullback driven by Trump-Netanyahu's War on Iran that causes higher oil & yields AND capital leaving risk assets. Inflation & recession not...
Semis, Gold, and Liquidity Have Peaked, Expect Rollover
This will not be a popular opinion, but it's mine: Semis, Gold & Liquidity Have Topped This Year From my live trading room March 20th... semiconductors, gold & broader liquidity trends have peaked after a multi-year rally. Mean reversion = prolonged rollover. $SMH...
Higher Oil Fuels Dollar, Yields; Stocks
“complete loss of confidence” = USD crashes with stocks with bonds. My MONEY GOES HOME™️ warning. A slower crash is what we have now: Higher Oil -> Higher Dollar, Yields, USDJPY -< Lower Equities & Bonds
Houthis Fire First Missile at Israel, Sparking US Troop Speculation
How much you wanna bet they’ll be US troops on the ground in Yemen next… FOR ISRAEL “Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launch missile at Israel for first time since war began”
Global Energy Crisis Looms as AI Bubble Bursts
Another big client post this weekend: Countdown To A Global Energy Crisis & Recession 💫The AI Bubble Is Bursting 💫Liquidity Is Leaving. Semis Are Done Going Up 💫Higher Oil, Dollar & Yields As Tech Wrecking Ball 💫Tail Risk Is Still Rising 💫Countdown To A Global Energy...
SPX Hits Predicted Support Faster Than Expected
March 21st: With the macro & fundamentals laid out, I gave my crash risk levels last week on break of 6508: "Let’s just say $6427 SPX is my next level for ‘support’ bounce before $6215 SPX with overshoot to $6100 by mid-May." Clearly,...
Bullwhip Economy Signals Hyperinflation, Not Stagflation
Very important client post. The Bullwhip Economy 💫Not Stagflation. Hyperinflation. 💫Gold Hedges Stagflation - Not A Bullwhip Economy 💫Some Key Topping Charts https://t.co/Jqx8pnT5Ti
Sellers Surge, Buyers Plummet as Housing Supply Near Record
"record growth of potential sellers...record decline of potential buyers...near record new supply of housing units coming to the market."
Global Alliances Entangle, Making Iran Conflict Unwinnable
"Who is winning the war? Exactly. If you ask the press, they say, “Iran denies everything.” If you ask Trump, he is confident Iran will make a deal. Netanyahu says, “We want to fight until Iran is dead… 100% dead.” China...
High‑Yield Spreads Tight Now, Widening Ahead
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
Crash Risk Persists Despite Market Bounce Over Iran Conflict
The Market Bull/Bear Case: US-Israel War on Iran There's always a bull vs. bear case & I made mine. And just because market is trying to have a reflexive bounce, it doesn't negate that crash risk is still critical as fundamentals...
Refiners and Nat Gas Power Stocks Still Attractive
Refiners & Nat Gas Power Higher Lots of clients trading the oil & gas plays, so I reviewed my long rec'd refiner plays & $FCG nat gas index stocks that still look good after some needed digestion. $VLO $PBF $COP $EOG $OXY...
Iran Lets Civilian Ships Pass to Target US‑Israel
Makes sense why... Iran is allowing ‘non-hostile vessels’ through Strait of Hormuz. So they can mine them against US-Israel. The rest are... sitting ducks & collateral damage? untenable
Market Rally Fueled by Hype, Iran Risk Remains Unpriced
Fake News Saved The Market My morning rant Monday. Strong opinions held strongly.🙃 The short-covering bounce driven by headlines & algos, not fundamentals, doesn't change the fact: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN. $SPX $6666 –6718 as $DXY falls won't save us as yields...
Key S&P Level Threatens 2008‑Style Crash
It's good to have eyes wide open...just in case Crash Risk: 2008-Type Waterfall Level Is Here Rising oil, yields & dollar are increasing market stress. VIX has a persistent bid. A key $SPX level could trigger either a bounce OR a sharp "2008-style"...
Escalation Risks Iran Mining Hormuz, Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
At what point does this escalation by Trump-Netanyahu actually prompt Iran to mine the Straight of Hormuz... with these ships on it?! Then this humanitarian crisis goes from lock-down to existential pretty quickly.
