Macro Volatility Returns: Inflation Threats and Earnings
Stabilization Into A Trap 💫Searching For A Bottom 💫Another Trump Ultimatum 💫Mechanical Flows Waiting For Gamma Flip 💫The New Macro-Driven Volatility Regime 💫Earnings - Opportunity or As Good As It Gets 💫The Week Ahead: Inflation Threatens https://t.co/Y1dcSGIrPf
Iran Strikes Kuwait Facilities Over US Base Presence
Patricia asks a good question since US isn’t protecting Kuwait. In fact, in retaliation for Kuwait hosting American bases, Iranian drones struck Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery (per Kuwait Petroleum Corp) today, and Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity - which is a power/desalination...
NFP Beats, Unemployment Drops, yet No Fed Cuts Ahead
NFP beats, for now. Big picture, the chart shows a deceleration trend - with some some big monthly swings of late. Unemployment down to 4.3% = no Fed rate cuts. Is good news bad or good - I lose track ;-) Wage growth...
AI Hype Bubble Bursts Like Subprime Crisis
The Subprime AI Crisis Is Here Ed Zitron's zinger of a post: 🎩 @edzitron https://t.co/6jiFAU1D6l
Iran Risk Unpriced Despite Trump's Stone Age Threat
Pretty simple, the fundamentals go like this: "Iran will be sent back to the Stone Age, where they belong." Trump, last night. Me, on repeat: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In https://t.co/pIYOLN90wD
Bitcoin: Rogue Money, Failed Hedge, Pure Greed Asset
Can I get an AMEN?! Geoffrey @GraphCall and I have been preaching this for years. $BTCUSD Bitcoin is RogueMoney - good for some in need & most for greed.
Memory Stocks Tumble, Triggering Shorts Into Data Centers
Shorting Memory Darling & Data Center Flower $MU $BE Memory stocks like $MU and peers have broken down after earnings, hitting key downside targets and confirming short setups across the group... and spilling into data center-related names like $BE. https://t.co/eWlx1m14Oa
Rising Input Costs Challenge Inflation and Growth
Soooo are higher input costs a concern as an inflation or growth hit? Hard to keep up...
Semis Begin Reverting After Today's Move
Yes, even after today ;-) Semis Are Just Starting To Mean Revert $SMH $MU #LiveTradingRoom https://t.co/AhrFbzFcVB
High‑Leverage Futures: A Dangerous Inflation Hedge
Of course - give the fox full power over the hen house; manipulate the futures market with 100X leverage as 'inflation hedge'. ⚠️🧨#Binance https://t.co/HmmQvifAKN
JPM Collar Pin May Boost Markets, Ease VIX Backwardation
"so the JPM collar pin of 6475 for end-of-day Tuesday ** could ** help to pull up markets to relieve the VIX backwardation we are in" 🤣😇 Lucky init.
Iran Threatens US Tech Firms Amid Looming War Timeline
Trump out saying AGAIN, 'war against Iran won’t last much longer & Strait of Hormuz will reopen automatically after US exit and other nations can reopen it' (NY Post) 🙄 Just as Iran's IRGC plans to attack US companies in the...
Quantum Threat Exposes Weaknesses in Digital Money Security
Musk mocking maxis 🤣 Crypto / Bitcoin hackable⏳ Google quantum warning😉 Also means:👿 Digital money security a joke And tradfi encryption at banks, online, even military…are at bigly risk.🔥 What else can ya’ll stack? 🤔🤨 https://t.co/InXsoR1LG3
Trump Threatens US Strike on Iran's Energy if Talks Collapse
Trump warns the US may strike Iran’s energy infrastructure if talks fail - per WSJ
Fragile Markets Reward Patient Bears Amid Rising Risks
Fragile Markets For Banks, Bonds & OPEX $XLF $TLT $SPX Shorts on "support" but markets are not safe. Rising #crudeoil, yields, dollar & VIX still reward patient bears. OPEX flows may offer brief stabilization - emphasis on *may*. https://t.co/XIcBupeCGG
Private Credit Stress
Private Credit contagion on top of negative supply shock... Wall St risks directly to affect Main St. Will Bessent do "whatever it takes" to push down long-term MBS rates & govt bond interest expense? QE & rate cuts would be especially inflationary.
AI Data Centers Face Imminent Production Bomb Threat
Enjoy your wee bounce. There is a ticking production bomb to AI data centers coming SOON. https://t.co/idc2fPCIv0
Iran War Risk Unpriced, Expect Deeper Market Pullback
As warned: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In A frank talk with @RealJohnGaltFla of @MacroEdgeRes predicting a deeper pullback driven by Trump-Netanyahu's War on Iran that causes higher oil & yields AND capital leaving risk assets. Inflation & recession not...
Semis, Gold, and Liquidity Have Peaked, Expect Rollover
This will not be a popular opinion, but it's mine: Semis, Gold & Liquidity Have Topped This Year From my live trading room March 20th... semiconductors, gold & broader liquidity trends have peaked after a multi-year rally. Mean reversion = prolonged rollover. $SMH...
Higher Oil Fuels Dollar, Yields; Stocks
“complete loss of confidence” = USD crashes with stocks with bonds. My MONEY GOES HOME™️ warning. A slower crash is what we have now: Higher Oil -> Higher Dollar, Yields, USDJPY -< Lower Equities & Bonds
Houthis Fire First Missile at Israel, Sparking US Troop Speculation
How much you wanna bet they’ll be US troops on the ground in Yemen next… FOR ISRAEL “Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launch missile at Israel for first time since war began”
Global Energy Crisis Looms as AI Bubble Bursts
Another big client post this weekend: Countdown To A Global Energy Crisis & Recession 💫The AI Bubble Is Bursting 💫Liquidity Is Leaving. Semis Are Done Going Up 💫Higher Oil, Dollar & Yields As Tech Wrecking Ball 💫Tail Risk Is Still Rising 💫Countdown To A Global Energy...
SPX Hits Predicted Support Faster Than Expected
March 21st: With the macro & fundamentals laid out, I gave my crash risk levels last week on break of 6508: "Let’s just say $6427 SPX is my next level for ‘support’ bounce before $6215 SPX with overshoot to $6100 by mid-May." Clearly,...
Bullwhip Economy Signals Hyperinflation, Not Stagflation
Very important client post. The Bullwhip Economy 💫Not Stagflation. Hyperinflation. 💫Gold Hedges Stagflation - Not A Bullwhip Economy 💫Some Key Topping Charts https://t.co/Jqx8pnT5Ti
Sellers Surge, Buyers Plummet as Housing Supply Near Record
"record growth of potential sellers...record decline of potential buyers...near record new supply of housing units coming to the market."
Global Alliances Entangle, Making Iran Conflict Unwinnable
"Who is winning the war? Exactly. If you ask the press, they say, “Iran denies everything.” If you ask Trump, he is confident Iran will make a deal. Netanyahu says, “We want to fight until Iran is dead… 100% dead.” China...
High‑Yield Spreads Tight Now, Widening Ahead
So far, HY credit spreads haven't widened anyway near as much as they should - given sustained oil prices & its large swings, not to mention supported high VIX & mechanical selling. Wait and see mode only lasts so long... Geopolitical shocks...
Crash Risk Persists Despite Market Bounce Over Iran Conflict
The Market Bull/Bear Case: US-Israel War on Iran There's always a bull vs. bear case & I made mine. And just because market is trying to have a reflexive bounce, it doesn't negate that crash risk is still critical as fundamentals...
Refiners and Nat Gas Power Stocks Still Attractive
Refiners & Nat Gas Power Higher Lots of clients trading the oil & gas plays, so I reviewed my long rec'd refiner plays & $FCG nat gas index stocks that still look good after some needed digestion. $VLO $PBF $COP $EOG $OXY...
Iran Lets Civilian Ships Pass to Target US‑Israel
Makes sense why... Iran is allowing ‘non-hostile vessels’ through Strait of Hormuz. So they can mine them against US-Israel. The rest are... sitting ducks & collateral damage? untenable
Market Rally Fueled by Hype, Iran Risk Remains Unpriced
Fake News Saved The Market My morning rant Monday. Strong opinions held strongly.🙃 The short-covering bounce driven by headlines & algos, not fundamentals, doesn't change the fact: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN. $SPX $6666 –6718 as $DXY falls won't save us as yields...
Key S&P Level Threatens 2008‑Style Crash
It's good to have eyes wide open...just in case Crash Risk: 2008-Type Waterfall Level Is Here Rising oil, yields & dollar are increasing market stress. VIX has a persistent bid. A key $SPX level could trigger either a bounce OR a sharp "2008-style"...
Escalation Risks Iran Mining Hormuz, Deepening Humanitarian Crisis
At what point does this escalation by Trump-Netanyahu actually prompt Iran to mine the Straight of Hormuz... with these ships on it?! Then this humanitarian crisis goes from lock-down to existential pretty quickly.
AI Boom Threatened by Helium Shortage and Chip Cooling Limits
“Silicon Valley spent the last two years convincing everyone that AI is a pure software revolution, completely forgetting that the entire trillion-dollar capex cycle is dependent on a noble gas extracted in a Middle Eastern warzone. 🤡 You can raise all...
Imminent Treasury Supply Surge Threatens Auction Failure
This is maybe not this week or even next month, but this is a failed auction waiting to happen. #TreasurySupply
Market Shifts to Expect Higher Volatility After Oil Spike
As fully expected when I said March 3, that the selling had just begun and higher oil would spike global yields. NOW, the market has finally changed its outlook and now expects a lot more volatility. I even gave my 🎯🔥⏳ https://t.co/FoGQa6x3Hh
Japan’s Energy Dependence Exposes Vulnerability Without US Consent
Sad but true: “Japan can’t cut a deal with Iran without U.S. approval” And that’s why Japanese are protesting now. Energy insecurity in Japan can turn food insecurity can trigger events that US equity, bond, currency market are not pricing in. And Trump’s...
Trump’s Actions Erode US Hegemony and Military Supply
Let’s unpack this: US exceptionalism/hegemony is based on our “security guarantees” which Trump clearly voided for our Gulf Arab allies when he and Netanyahu started a war on Iran (and Lebanon). And Trump also started a trade war with China that extracts,...
Iran Risk Unpriced, Trump‑Netanyahu May Ignite Nuclear War
Iran risk is still not priced in. And neither is Trump-Netanyahu’s potentially diabolical reaction: US-Israel nuclear war
Silver Bubble, Gold Bull, Then Massive Market Crash
Exactly as I warned in advance - TWICE now: Mega Silver Bubble Meets Mega Gold Bull Market - BEFORE a 7-sigma downdraft https://t.co/8hEosW0Op2 and just last week: Gold Is Just Another Risk Asset Now - BEFORE the latest sell-off https://t.co/BiIpfFJ2fA #MarketTiming
Iran's Gains Signal Dangerous Shift in Regional Power
Bunker-busting, but in reverse? And why I warned: Iran Is Winning, Which Is Dangerous https://t.co/5HAmJsOd5H
Market Faces Critical Crash Support, Selling Pressure Rises
Selling Into Critical Crash Level Support Poor breadth, rising yields, fragile support levels. Selling pressure builds as crash support zones come into focus. A technical review & why $SPX $6508 & $QQQ $578 matter. https://t.co/clgEWxEHum
US LNG Seizes Market as Competitor Corridor Fails
“Just enough damage to knock competing infrastructure offline. U.S. LNG steps into the gap. The competing corridor is gone before it opens.” US LNG stocks are outperforming as LNG glut is removed & US restructuring plans in GCC are quietly negotiated. #IranWar
Iran Accuses UK of Enabling US Bombers, Fueling War
Iran warns UK government is “participating in aggression" 'Allowing US heavy bombers to fly from its Royal Air Force (RAF) base in Fairford, England, and from Diego Garcia—a UK base in the Indian Ocean—has been critical to the devastating US-Israeli bombing...
Yen Surges as Dollar Falls, Stay Cautious
GUESS WHAT'S NEW TODAY... Yen is spiking higher as USD sells off - that is my MONEY GOES HOME™️ in full view 😭 The market bounce 'looks' like put monetization on dollar dump, BUT don't count your right tail chickens before they...
Oil, Yields, Dollar Surge Squeeze Gold, Silver
Precious Metal Miner Misery #crudeoil $XAUUSD $XAGUSD $GLD $SLV $DXY $GDX I break down how rising oil, yields & a stronger dollar are pressuring gold, silver and miners - while client research shows oil shocks disrupt auto demand & hit platinum and...
Gold as Collateral; SLV Projected to Dip Below $60
Folks often forget Gold is a collateral trade. Once stuff really starts to break, metals fall fast. I gave $SLV $61 with overshoot to 58.56 . How we doin’? JOIN US LIVE. Trading room starts ...
2015 Yuan Devaluation Warns of Gold, Silver Risks
Commodities plunged post China yuan devaluation in 2015. I wonder if there is a signal here for Gold & Silver. China isn’t exporting their refined products to neighbors who are at great risk. China has 3-4 months of reserves itself -...
War Fuels Inflation; Oil Spikes Before Iran’s Retaliation
War is inflationary. And these oil prices are before Iran retaliates on: Ras Laffan refinery – Qatar Samref oil refinery – Saudi Arabia Al Hosn gasfield – UAE Jubail petchem plant – Saudi Arabia Mesaieed petchem plant – Qatar #RefinedProduct #oott
War‑driven Inflation Pushes Oil, Yields, Dollar Higher
Wars are inflationary - and rising oil, yields & dollar are the play. Not metals right now, as warned to clients. #Gold #Silver Wholesale inflation comes in hot for February with producer prices rising 3.4%, the biggest jump in a...