Trump-Netanyahu Iran Conflict Triggers Market Correction, Threatens US Economy
A stock market correction caused by the Trump-Netanyahu War On Iran that spikes oil, yields & dollar poses the greatest risk to the US economy. Fixed it for ya, GS
XLE Still Strong vs SPY Despite Overbought Status
$XLE Over $SPY Still In Play A fab long recommendation to clients since January - now overbought. But that doesn't mean it's done ;-) #OOTT $WTIC https://t.co/mlMJdgqOFk
No EV Alternative Exists for Jet Fuel, Say Refiners
Gonna say it again: there is no EV equivalent for jet fuel... #Refiners $VLO $PBF https://t.co/5A8N3DTrOh
Earnings Growth Driven by One Sector, Not Broad Market
66% of S&P 500 earnings growth came from ONE sector. Strip out Information Technology and earnings growth drops from 13.2% to ~5%. Meanwhile: • The Magnificent Seven grew earnings 27% • The other 493 companies grew ~5% • AI capex is heading toward...
Nvidia Eyes $1T Sales, but Supply Constraints Loom
Nvidia CEO predicts i$1 trillion in sales through 2027. Wow, up .52% You would think the bulls would try harder. Maybe they are concerned about HOW that happens if $TSM is 'encumbered' or energy is 'scarce'. Encumbered Scarcity Trumps "Insane Demand" https://t.co/LVLaK2mfjg
Empires Crumble when Power Replaces Ideology
“When a hegemon abandons the legitimating ideas that built its empire and operates on naked power alone, it has already begun to fall.” @Noneotherthanwe
SPX Stabilizes; Watch for Looming Big Short
SPX $6630 hit Friday target & we bounced on cue into a 'stabilizing week' ahead of VIX expiration, MU earnings, FOMC, BOJ & month end OpEx. Even chasing $CAVA, swing long $JD & trend long $AA from live trading room. But be...
War‑driven Inflation Fuels Liquidity‑to‑solvency Crises
For those bullish wars, don't forget: WARS ARE INFLATIONARY which can accelerate economic deterioration that is already in motion. Now pit INFLATION against this backdrop: liquidity versus solvency.👇 Liquidity crisis can quickly turn to solvency crisis. Fed can step in during liquidity episodes, Fed...
Fed's Treasury Holdings Surge, Echoing Past Funding Crises
Preparation for liquidity crisis to minimize repo/money market volatility that are threatening credit spreads due to oil spike and growth contraction from Trump trapping US-Israel War on Iran. #HYOAS “The Fed now holds about $358B in Treasury bills. That’s higher than the...
Accelerating the Global Refined Product Market's Vicious Cycle
Agreed. “this will only accelerate the vicious cycle in the global refined product mkt.” #SouthKorea $EWY #AI
Iran Risk Unpriced, Threatening GCC and AI Tech
I will keep repeating: IRAN RISK NOT PRICED IN https://t.co/4PcaQ3ES81 GCC countries at risk and with it our Tech darlings #AI
Trump and Netanyahu Drive Dollar Dedollarization Amid Iran War
Trump-Netanyahu orchestrated dollar dedollarization, debasement & devaluation in full view as collateral damage to their war on Iran, Lebanon, et al. #ByDesignOrDefault
US Strikes Hit Kharg Island, Iran’s Main Oil Hub
Iranian media confirms US strikes destroyed military sites on Kharg Island. Via @BRICSinfo Kharg Island handles 90% of Iran's oil export.
Rate Volatility Rising; Oil Hikes Push Yields Higher
I went over this with clients already: rate volatility is just starting… “If 80 then 100” is what I said about MOVE and it’s got lots of room to move higher. Higher oil = higher yields
Chemical Shortage Hits Asia as Naphtha Supply Dries Up
More than “Five Asian petrochemical plants have declared force majeure in the past ten days because their naphtha supply was cut off at the Strait of Hormuz. The emergency reserves are crude oil. The shortage is chemicals.”
Small Marine Deployment Sparks Uncontrolled Escalation Risk
"The camel's nose under the tent"? Client just summed Hegseth sending 5000 marines to the Trump-Netanyahu War on Iran: a modest initial action that will inevitably lead to much larger, more serious, and uncontrollable consequences. Let’s face it: Trump trapped US - as...
Rising Oil, Yields, Dollar Boost Crash Risk Ahead of OpEx
Market Crash Risk Odds Have Increased $SPX $VIX #crudeoil #10Y #USD All eyes on rising oil, yields & dollar... for increased pressure on equities... before or after OpEx is the big question... https://t.co/fgfY8OJ2nm
Trump Admin Weaponizes Forced‑labor Claims to End Tariffs
Trump admin picks another fight: “forced-labor” accusations as means to a tariff end. ❌ Section 301 permits the U.S. to impose tariffs on countries found to have engaged in unfair trade practices without congressional authorization. https://t.co/4pSaGKCo2K
Iran's Gains Spark Higher Oil, Global Economic Risks
Iran Is Winning, Which Is Dangerous 💫Odd Man Out 💫Confirmed Bear 💫Higher Oil, Higher Dollar 💫Higher Oil, Higher Yields 💫Higher Oil, Higher USDJPY 💫Higher Oil, Higher Inflation Expectations 💫Higher Oil, Lower AI Investment 💫Higher Oil, Lower Markets https://t.co/WEe7RNmgRh
Trump Dismisses Iran Risk, Claims Instant Devastation
He thinks this is a game. I warned early and often: IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN Trump says "we could do a lot worse" to Iran. "We could take them out by this afternoon. In fact, within an...
U.S. Navy Unready to Escort Tankers
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 United States says Navy is not ready to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. It would be 'suicide'. So the war wages on while Trump sends ameteur AI videos from the WH to evoke fake gamer...
Expect 4.8
IF-THEN I am growing in confidence we’re gonna hit 4.8% in the US 10 year yield this year - with potential overshoot of crude to $300 and 10Y to 5.8% in a real panic (outlier event). That's too scary to digest/trade but...
Rising Yields Signal Dollar Surge, Growth De‑Risking Continues
Bonds fall on growth fears and rise on recession fears - as a rule of thumb. But that’s under monetary dominance, not fiscal dominance. The new rulebook will look very much like February into the April tariff terror event where dollar and bonds...
War on Iran Threatens Global Resources and AI Economy
Sulfur and Helium and Fuel and Fertilizer and Food … needed for the GCC & World… held hostage from Trump-Netanyahu’s war on Iran. Collateral damage: AI ecosystem of Investments, US hegemony and lives.
US-Israel Unlikely to Force Open Strait of Hormuz
"the chances of the US-Israel having success in any forceful action to open the strait are very low." #Hormuz
Unverified Tanker Claim Lacks Details and Proof
Big IF True... "a large oil tanker went through 36 hours ago" but doesn't specify the tanker then says "Navy successfully escorted" but doesn't provide proof. #Hormuz #Iran https://t.co/WKay8jJ3hD
Mechanical Put Bounce Signals Rising Investor Risk
Nothing has changed: the bounce was predicted on mechanical put monetization NOT fundamentals. Now we wait for VIX to base & move higher as posted for clients on more active timeframes. ;-) But big picture, risk has only increased for investors....
Tokenized Equities Arriving 2027, Nasdaq Retains Control
Tokenized equities 24/7 coming “SOON” Via @TheGoldenAss “Fact-check: Nasdaq/Kraken is real but overhyped. Settlement still runs through DTCC. SEC approval needed. Launch target: 2027. Kraken distributes — Nasdaq stays in control. Evolution, not revolution.”
Tech Funding Dwindles as Market Torpedo Approaches
Now some see it. I presented to clients a full week ago: "Tech To Lose Its Key Source Of Funds" Update here: There's A Torpedo Headed For The US Stock Market But It's Not The One You Think https://t.co/zzV2LfHfgz
China's Unexpected Readiness Shapes Hormuz‑Iran Dynamics
There is also the argument that China is prepared and better positioned than many expect. #Hormuz #Iran
Hardware Shifts to Software: Our Winning Rotation Call
While positioning clients long VIX & Oil, we had another great play past two weeks: My call for Hardware Into Software Rotation 😉 Have a look 👀🤩😻 https://t.co/zKBn1g7m1F
Essential Read on US‑Israel War Risks to Iran
If you read one article on the US-Israel war on Iran and its many risk factors - from binary to systemic, bounded to unbounded duration - read this one. 🙏
Timing All Asset Classes Beats Even Top Hedge Funds
My market timing calls on dollar, yields, oil, gold/silver, bitcoin & equities (esp growth to value rotation) can help even the best-of-the-best. 🙏
Early Iran Risk Warning Yields Record Oil Gains
Since my client warning, VIX has risen 70%. and because I warned two weeks ahead that IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN, clients got to take full advantage of every dollar of the largest weekly gain on record in data going...
Oracle and OpenAI Scrap Texas Data Center Expansion Plans
ORACLE $ORCL AND OPENAI ENDS PLANS TO EXPAND TEXAS DATA CENTER SITE: BBG Timber $AAOI $BE $AEHR $NVDA $SMH hello $SPX $6700 incoming ;-) As posted Feb 26th: There Are Better Things To Trade Than Nvidia https://t.co/LGkqEyi3XF
Free Access to Live Trading Room + Unedited AI Notes
Little Note: Big Warning with complimentary access to my live trading room recording & (unedited) AI briefing notes. https://t.co/kpucMGgu60
Iran Risk Unpriced; Oil, USD, Yields Threaten Market Crash
I did a rant this morning live in my trading room of what to buy and what to avoid and what to short and my HIGH conviction Iran Risk Is Not Priced In - as I have been writing about...
Hormuz Closure Threat Spurs Oil Price Surge
Same. I wrote about this past few days for clients because too many are complacent: Hormuz Heightens Risk & My Crude Oil Price Target https://t.co/jNvbWvy4Rt
Patient Shorts Pay Off in Live Trading Session
Patient Shorts Rewarded - live trading room Tuesday ;-) $VIX $SPX $EWY $EWT $EWJ $SNDK $STX $WDC $MU Charting VIX for intraday scalps PLUS timing the top in South Korea ;-) https://t.co/zuRtN2DthN
Qatar LNG Shutdown Tightens Supply, Pressures Emerging Markets
Oil and gas price shocks hit emerging markets more than developed. Not to mention South Korea and Japan are major buyers (read: dependent). BOJ inflation-induced rate hike can be pulled forward from my Q3 projection to Q2. $USDJPY
Markets
Winning Isn't Even On My Bingo Card From Safe Havens To Software Gap Down Was Bought, For Now Petro or Pedo-Dollar https://t.co/C1TzLcxyl7
Iran Risk Unpriced; Protect Positions Ahead of Expiry
I warned IRAN RISK IS NOT PRICED IN - 2 weeks ago setting up for clients how to protect. And then last week: Iran Risk Is Not Priced In, Still Then Friday morning live & in this Weekend Risk client post: "I’m racing...
Software Gains, Hardware Falters: Go Long NFLX, Short NVDA
JPM: Software (IGV) — Sentiment +10% | Net flows +1.5z | ETF volume +4z (1yr lookback) Semis (SMH) — Sentiment -7% | Net flows -0.3z | ETF volume +1z I call that "green shoots" and made for a great $NFLX long, $NVDA short...
Nvidia Not Top Trade; Here Are Better Alternatives
There Are Better Things To Trade Than Nvidia also my short price targets on $NVDA https://t.co/LGkqEyi3XF
Day Two Tech Bounce: Nvidia Holds the Key
We are in Day 2 of this toga party in oversold tech bounce chases - if NVDA doesn't muck it up.
AI‑driven Stocks Like $TRI Can Spark Sharp Rallies
Right Tail Right Now😉 I set up why AI-pressured names like $TRI can stage sharp reflexive rallies And boy did it: +25% We covered lots of chase plays as well as my timing for next wave of volatility within a still fragile market...
Delayed Left Tail, Emerging Right Tail Signals Green Growth
Left Tail Delayed; Right Tail Green Shoots I wrote about this for clients Tues: https://t.co/9mH4bWEu3y
Buy News, Sell Rumors; Metals and Boomer Stocks Surge
If you missed my client post November 26: "Sell The Rumor of Consumer Cyclical Slowdown; Buy The News." Or December 12: "ROTATION & RECESSION INTO ALL TIME HIGHS" Or January 6th: "2025: METALS ARE THE NEW OIL 2026: BOOMER STOCKS ARE THE NEW INFLATIONARY ASSETS" HALO has...
Historic Shift: Growth to Value Gains Momentum
💫Historic Rotation From Growth-To-Value 💫The HALO Effect 💫THINGS OVER PAPER Continues 💫The Best Analyst You’ve Never Heard Of ;-) Open to all 😘 https://t.co/ktb2nCSe5S
AI Surge Makes Software Competition Easier, Threatening Companies
“I’m more bullish on AI than I’ve ever been. And that’s exactly why I’m bearish on most software companies. Not because their customers will leave, but because their next thirty competitors just got a lot easier to build.”