Warsh's Push to Cut Fed Liquidity Tests Rate Limits
Curious, if Warsh wants to trade in fiscal dominance for fiscal discipline - removing to start the $300B/yr Fed liquidity program Powell approved to ease REPO volatility - how low do rates go & how does he get them down without FOMC consensus? 🤔
Strait of Hormuz: Global Internet at Chokepoint Risk
“Red Sea cable incidents” is about to trend. Trump-Netanyahu’s War on Iran can quickly escalate from oil chokepoint to digital-data center chokepoint soon. Better to be safe than sorry: Know what you own.
US Deploys Massive Naval Force Amid Oil Market Apathy
JUST as the SSS Bush arrives this weekend to join the two other US aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East. How many assembled jets, missiles, destroyers, nuclear submarines & military personnel does that make - now in attack position? Market,...
Japan's Naphtha Shortage Threatens Global Semiconductor Production
Semi Market, show me you care. "Japan is short on naphtha → Japan can't produce semiconductor materials → This could bring the world's semiconductor fabs to a halt."
AI Earnings Prop Up Markets Amid Iran Tensions
Tom Lee Agreed With Me - LOL $SPX Markets are holding up despite geopolitical tension from War in Iran, as strong AI-driven earnings mask economic weakness. Risks from #crudeoil price/supply shocks aren't priced in but narrow leadership is. Seasonality tilts bearish soon... https://t.co/3v10TYbjuc
Fertilizer Price Surge Triggers Gradual Food Inflation
Rising fertilizer prices are now hitting farmers, and eventually those will translate into higher wholesale food prices which will (assuming higher costs are passed onto consumers) eventually land at grocery stores too. The inflationary impulse doesn’t arrive all at once,...
Intel Doubles in Five Months on Steady Uptrend
$INTC: A Boring But Profitable Double In 5 Months I break down how #Intel surged from undervalued levels into a powerful uptrend, holding key support and benefiting from macro tailwinds, while staying constructive despite pullbacks and targeting major resistance levels. https://t.co/LSJkXlxAFW
War Cuts 1bn Barrels, Threatening Recession if Hormuz Stays Closed
Oil market has experienced a loss of 1 billion barrels due to war, says Trafigura’s Rahim. Oil markets are one month away from tank bottoms AND a recession is possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three more months,...
CTAs Flood S&P with $8B Daily, $50B by Month‑End
Price-agnostic CTAs are now strong buyers of the S&P 500 and pump $8 bln /day into the market. Until the end of the month, the total increase in S&P exposure could reach $50 bln. There is currently no scenario, where...
Tech Earnings Boost Markets, yet Midterm Seasonality Threatens
Mid-Term Playbook Crash-Up Into Correction Strong earnings expectations — led by tech in general & $MU in particular — are supporting market fundamentalists despite the US-Israel War on Iran supply shocks. But don't be complacent: midterm-seasonality has its own ideas. https://t.co/YmHOApOnTX
Big Tech's Low Taxes Boost Profits, Erode Worker Share
Actually, Pro-Trump MAG4 companies - $META $TSLA $GOOGL & $AMZN - unsurprisingly pay the least US taxes despite being some of the largest companies in the world. https://t.co/80OHUutsyx Also this trend of US corporate profits growing faster than the domestic economy has...
Iran Risk Unpriced Amid High Oil, Demand Lag Threatens
Iran risk is not priced in from elevated oil prices or supply shocks. @HFI_Research wrote about lags that trigger potential demand hit if prolonged.
China’s Hormuz Veto: Strategic Masterstroke in War
Why China's Veto on Hormuz Is the Smartest Move of This Entire War / Professor Jiang ... https://t.co/7bLiA5djLB
Trump’s Hormuz Lies Debunked, China Holds the Ball
Now that Trump’s lies of Strait of Hormuz being open & Iran returning its uranium are fact-checked and retracted, let’s get back to the macro picture that still matters… China, Ball Is In Your Court https://t.co/tlRLPiFEts
Trump Claims Iran Won’t Close Hormuz; Iran Threatens Closure
Love these competing blockade headlines: Trump said Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. An Iranian official told Fars that if the U.S. naval blockade persists, Tehran will consider it a violation of the ceasefire and will close...
Record Market Highs Mask Historic Concentration Risk
It's so old it's new: CONCENTRATION RISK New market highs, but lowest number of new 52-week highs going back 28 years....
War and Energy Crisis Fuel Yield Surge, Bonds Bearish
Yes, higher yields for all kinds of reasons, namely: WAR IS INFLATIONARY in general, but when combined with global energy crisis? 🚀 Also, TARIFF REFUNDS are bearish bonds. And so are rising effective tariff rates... (yes, I do Technical analysis on everything.) #Paulson https://t.co/Z68kjUi0vF
Iran and Russia Threaten Neighbors Hosting US Forces
Iran threatens & attacks neighbors who house US military... Now Russia is following suit? What could go wrong? 😬 #NATO #EU
US Says Blockade Stopped Chinese Iranian Oil Purchases
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the blockade is believed to have halted Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, will not renew the Russian oil waiver, and stated that two Chinese banks received Treasury letters warning of potential secondary sanctions.
Chasing Under‑Owned Growth Stocks Amid Semi Profit‑Takes
I did say the chase for “under-owned” stocks would continue in the growth roation: $IGV names gallore plus profit taking in semi (Software > Hardware) 😉 Plus MAG7 laggards $TSLA $MSFT $ORCL 🚀🚀 #LiveTradingRoom
US Warns China Will Lose Access to Iranian Oil
Escalation either way: US Treasury Secretary Bessent says China will no longer be able to get oil from Iran.
US Treasury: China Blocked From Iranian Oil
And in response:: US treasury secretary says China will not be able to get oil from Iran ⏳🇨🇳🛢️ $USDCNH
Policy Push Sparks V‑Shaped Tech Rally, Risks Lurk
Trading A Policy Intervention V-Shaped Meltup $IGV $SPX $ORCL $MSFT Policy intervention headlines, mechanical flows & short covering triggered a sharp V-shaped rally - led by tech. Momentum is strong, but risks remain that could quickly reverse the move. https://t.co/2MbhKAp47Z
Chinese Warship Deters US Blockade, Tankers Sail Freely
American blockade of Hormuz isn’t stopping Chinese tankers. “The presence of a Chinese warship proved sufficiently deterrent.”
Analysts Align on $7,700 S&P Year‑End Target
As markets approach their highs, as if on cue, Tom Lee at Fundstrat calls a market bottom MONDAY as Yardeni comes out to remind of their $7,700 S&P year-end target😉 TUESDAY, Citi updates their target of $7,700 at year’s end as...
Bearish Outlook Persists Despite Short‑term Price Rally
Bearish big picture with eyes wide open for all the same reasons I’ve discussed for months… Campbell details well below. @abcampbell It does not mean press short in a mania of momentum. Price action for higher since we got back above...
Cautious Approach Prioritizes China Delays and Q2 Plans
Caution Beats Conviction 💫Are We There Yet? 💫Waiting On China 💫Big Level On Deck 💫The Week Ahead & Q2 Plans https://t.co/yIsx9u9K0b
China May Pressure Iran to Reopen Strait Amid Oil Shortage
Assuming Iran has no intention of conceding, and Israel has no contention of conceding, and Trump will claim victory no matter what… what are Vegas odds China will need to pressure Iran to open the strait and if so by...
AI's Physical Infrastructure Drives New Market Concentration Risks
"AI isn’t just software — it’s a massive physical investment cycle (chips, servers, infrastructure) that is reshaping global trade flows, partners, and balances." As such, concentration risk in SPX is also massive & will increase post IPO for SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI....
War Unpriced: Ignoring Inflation and Recession Risks
Wars are inflationary and recessionary. War was not priced in. Recession is not priced in.
Iran Rejects Terms, Vows Defense by Any Means
"The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest, attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war. Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means...
Japan's Industrial Hub Poses $23.8T Global Disruption Risk
Big if true: “simulation models $23.8 trillion in downstream exposure from disruption to Japan's industrial cluster, spanning #semiconductors, #robotics, #energy infrastructure, #defense systems, #space, and #quantum computing. Six domains simultaneously dependent on a single allied nation with no strategic redundancy program....
Bypassing Sanctions Mirrors Abandoning the Dollar System
Blood in the water attracts sharks. Bypassing US sanctions to buy oil directly from Iran is akin to bypassing the USD system all together. Will Trump renig on foreign payments too? #TradeDeficit #FiscalDeficit
Ceasefire‑Driven Rally Likely Short‑Lived Ahead Weekend Risk
Relief Rally Ends Ahead Of Weekend Risk $SPX $VIX Mechanical buying & short covering made for an historical bounce on 'ceasefire' news. But is it really safe? https://t.co/rBuCLlLEIj
Crowd Mis‑hedged Tails, Expect Bull‑trap Stabilization
Crowd was under-hedged for the right-tail and over- hedged for the left-tail. My “stabilization into bull trap” call: https://t.co/7eiBkt8qyD
Pakistani Media Misleads on Iranian Delegation Arrival
Media is wrong: "Pakistani media confirms the arrival of the Iranian delegation for negotiations, with main talks between Iran and America scheduled for tomorrow." but they bury the lede: "there is no confirmed official information about the arrival of Qalibaf and Araghchi in...
Analyzing Rally Limits Ahead of Weekend Risk
I wanted to do a deep-dive before "weekend risk" and to highlight where I see this rally pushing back. 😉
GCC Alignment with Iran Threatens US Investments and Dollar Dominance
Iran calling up its neighbors to resist US-Israel. Let’s assume some of the GCC members fall in line - out of survival - what happens to their US investments and USD hegemony?
Fragile Ceasefire Sparks 6865 S&P Target
A Fragile ‘Ceasefire’ & 6865 $SPX Price Target This morning's premarket rant - before coffee. I should have said $6845. After we hit it + given $184M in Sept $6900/6910 calls were sold today, my VIX 19.29 bounce level is likely in...
Oil Plumm
Oil had its 2nd largest drop in 35 years. Just a few days after Binance listed its oil futures - with 100X leverage. Yeah, that Binance - the money-laundering crypto founder who was pardoned by Trump. Then 6 million barrels of Brent and...
Markets Rally on Weak Fundamentals; Oil, Dollar, Yields Likely Hold
"CEASEFIRE" and $SPX 6800 – Now What? Markets ripping yet risk remains high with fundamentals weak behind the move. My bet: Oil, Dollar, Yields & VIX won't fall as much as bulls hope. Also, some trading tips on hedging swing short exposure. https://t.co/by1pQIVgSP
Iran Strikes Kuwait Power and Desalination Facilities
'Ceasefires' are easy to do. "Kuwait reports that 3 power and water desalination facilities were hit by Iran, causing significant damage to generation and desalination units." https://t.co/lggRzOQR1P
Power Shifts Offer Hope Amid US‑Israel Conflict
#RESPECT #Spain Power shifts are occurring and it's the only thing hopeful in this ghastly US-Israel War on Iran-Lebanon.
No Deal, No Traffic: Hormuz Stalemate Persists
Nothing has been agreed to between US-Iran-Israel-Lebanon-GCC No ship is going through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump had the preposterous imagination to promise a join US-Iranian "toll-booth system”. 🤡 https://t.co/MHiLNxRSuc The Never-Ending War Continues
Volatility Persists; Upside Calls Hedge Downside Risk
Binary events are NOT easy to call or trade with conviction. Some think they can smell the Trump TACO in the room: “civilization - decimated” talk. Escalate to de-escalate game theory stuff. Not my game. What I smell are charts, flows &...
Bulls Remain Resilient on AI, Earnings, Cheap Valuations
Earnings Expectations Rising With Tail Risk $SPX $QQQ #Valuations Why market bulls can stay resilient despite risks: committed AI narrative, rising earnings expectations, valuations "on sale", and 'stable' yields & USD. Until they aren't. https://t.co/5NVOuV0Jdz
6% Yield Trigger Could Force US Debt Restructuring
See my 10Y yield targets then read this quote by Jeff Gundlach: “Well, I think my base case is that the long-term interest rates on treasuries will move higher until such time as they get to a level that is difficult...
US Misreads Iran: Persistent Naval Threat Despite Limited Doctrine
"US/Trump camp misreads: - They underestimate Iranian naval capability because it doesn’t resemble US blue‑water doctrine. - They assume one or two massive blows will “teach Iran a lesson” and force retreat - In reality, Iran is structurally incentivized to...
Global Shift: Gold and Yuan Rise as Dollar Recycling Declines
Translation: MUCH less US dollar recycling... More gold, more yuan; less USD, less UST... #NATO #Iran #Hegemony
Only Free Markets, Not Central Banks, Set Rates
"Central banks in general—and the Fed in particular—are on a mission impossible. They don’t know what the interest rate should be. Nobody does. That’s something only a voluntary market of savers and borrowers, dealing in honest money, can determine." #DebtSpiral