Tax Complexity Grows Despite TCJA Simplifications Since Rummy's Letter
Even with the TCJA's (pretty good) simplifications, the US tax complexity problem has gotten significantly worse since Rummy wrote that famous letter. (More to come on this later today - hint)
Tax Loopholes Sail, Social Spending Stalls in Congress
"The country’s politicians have created a tax code with 10,000 sections and innumerable carve-outs.... tax expenditures tend to fly through Congress, whereas social-spending bills tend to get stuck" https://t.co/vRFS2tPnEu https://t.co/MTmEBAEnV7
Court Clears Home Distilling for Hobby Distillers Association
"the Court of Appeals recognized that my clients—the nonprofit Hobby Distiller’s Association and four of its named members—are now free to distill alcoholic beverages at home as long as they comply with existing state and federal law."🔥 https://t.co/QQVUwc5hMn https://t.co/BKgRls4QBQ
Presidential Report Misses Key Drivers of Housing Supply
"What the Economic Report of the President Gets Wrong and Right About Housing Supply" https://t.co/wTL0SpGnWA via @CatoInstitute @sslivinski https://t.co/SjtLwXHzq7
Builders Slash Cabinets and Windows to Preserve Margins
"Flimsier Cabinets and Fewer Windows: Home Builders Are Skimping on the Basics" https://t.co/D3NKwvf6zt "higher labor costs and materials prices are also cutting into margins" https://t.co/2KkyYnoVod
Redefining Deficits Turns Section 122 Into Ongoing Tariff Power
Important: "If 'balance-of-payments deficits' can be redefined to mean some politically salient trade imbalance, then Section 122 stops being a narrow emergency provision designed for a fixed-exchange-rate system and becomes a standing reservoir of discretionary tariff authority" https://t.co/yGvNS8REjI
Foreign Overcapacity Not Driving US Trade Surpluses, Study Shows
.@USTradeRep's Section 301 case says "systemic overcapacity" abroad causes trade surpluses that harm US manufacturing. As @stanveuger @KyleLHandley show in new comments, there's no relationship bt low capacity utilization & big trade surpluses - if anything it's the opposite:
Institutional Investors Expand US Housing Supply via Distressed Home Rehab
New @AEI case study finds that institutional investors boost US housing supply by buying single family homes in poor condition (thus likely underused/vacant), quickly rehabilitating them, and returning them to the market for sale to individual homeowners: https://t.co/oRNyDFJcil https://t.co/DswoYpfXZ7
Austin's Housing Boom Cuts Rents Amid Population Growth
"Austin’s Surge of New Housing Construction Drove Down Rents" (even as its population grew) https://t.co/Mi7GYtLlbz https://t.co/HAdE5iQaBO
Tariffs Spur Few New U.S. Jobs, Tour Highlights Legacy Makers
"While Greer's tour highlighted companies that have been making their products in the U.S. for years, it's more difficult for the administration to showcase manufacturers that have set up shop in the U.S. or added jobs specifically as a result...
Oil Futures Lag Spot Prices Amid White House Influence
Excellent @wsj dive into what's driving the growing divergence between relatively tame oil futures prices and much higher prices on the spot market https://t.co/MLJoHMhDx5 One thing: oil traders convinced prices will go higher don't want to bet against White House...
Supply Chain Strain Peaks at Highest Since Jan 2023
"Global supply chain pressure is at its highest level since January 2023, according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York." https://t.co/ukMJP5oDLE
Oklahoma Smelter's Long Build, No Tariff Profit Reliance
"The [Oklahoma] smelter will take at least three years to build and be expected to operate for decades. EGA says it isn’t counting on the tariffs that have helped drive up aluminum prices to make the project profitable." https://t.co/OFyR3UKIwS https://t.co/h0CtrCP2iy
Two‑Month Embargo Cuts China’s Emergency Reserves ~10%
"Even a two-month embargo would only see China depleting its emergency reserves by about 10%." https://t.co/9wseXtRVym https://t.co/ZfwXR9aAGx
Tariff‑hit U.S. Firms Pawn Refunds for Loans
"‘People are trying to be creative’: Tariff-battered American companies are so cash-starved they are using refund claims as collateral for loans" https://t.co/WtwiAwG8Vp https://t.co/80jM3610SE
American Compass’s Tariff Tally Flawed and Misleading
"American Compass’s 'Tariff Tally' Doesn’t Add Up" via @ericadyork @alex_durante_ "The piece presents a flawed, inconsistent framework for how tariffs affect the economy... The analysis also relies on selective and asymmetric presentations of economic indicators" 😱 https://t.co/BCyEOZJa1o
Natural Diamond Prices Plunge over 50% Since 2022
Competition FTW: "The price of natural diamonds has fallen more than 50% since 2022, and is now at its lowest level on record" https://t.co/9Qn6ZnMKXq https://t.co/o1BkZ6Kl92
Regulation Cuts Bank Risk Premiums, Raises Unemployment
New @nberpubs: "The Macroeconomic Effects of Bank Regulation: New Evidence from a High-Frequency Approach" https://t.co/g4pjlheA4f "A 10 basis point regulation-induced peak reduction in bank risk premiums is accompanied by a 15 basis point peak increase in the unemployment rate." https://t.co/sclisI5Km5
90% of 2025 Tariffs Shift to U.S. Importers
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs in 2025: Short-Run Impacts on the U.S. Economy" https://t.co/Du7yk49H5l "90% of the tariffs are passed through to tariff-inclusive prices paid by U.S. importers" https://t.co/kMhPTPkojL
Japan‑1990s and China Today Share Real‑estate Crisis Dynamics
New @nberpubs: "A Tale of Two Countries – The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China" https://t.co/au6sFcLXSp "striking parallels in investment dynamics and consumption responses despite profound institutional differences." https://t.co/yz5TYRePB8
AI Product Imports Surge 73% as Tariffs Stay Low
New @nberpubs: "Trade in AI-Related Products" https://t.co/HKvnAGrO6D "imports of these products have grown by 73 percent since 2023... Trade policy has treated these products lightly with product-level exemptions shielding much of AI-related imports from tariffs." https://t.co/HNy3aXAeMU
Eliminating Cancer Could Add $197 Trillion to Economy
New @nberpubs: "The Economic Value of Eliminating Cancer" https://t.co/BJtM1578oY "Eliminating cancer mortality generates $197 trillion in economic benefits over 35 years, corresponding to approximately $16,282 per American per year, or $41,684 per American household per year" https://t.co/QQ3KYmQezj
Flavored E‑cig Ban Cuts Vaping Interest, Boosts Smoking Demand
New @nberpubs: "Consumer Tobacco Product Choices in China: The Impact of a Ban on Flavored E-Cigarettes" https://t.co/GeojsfqozA "a ban of flavored e-cigarettes decreases stated preferences for e-cigarettes but also has the unintended consequence to increase stated preferences for cigarettes" 😲
Staged Homes Fetch 10% More, Sell a Week Sooner
Fascinating: "staged homes sell for roughly 10% more and one week faster than comparable homes without furniture." https://t.co/5W7trDDx9w https://t.co/q0ff3oe93x
Satellite Internet Surges After Argentina Lifts Provider-Protecting Ban
Argentina: "satellite internet use exploded once the government lifted its ban, which had, until then, benefited a politically powerful local internet provider." https://t.co/AgkhhECtJH https://t.co/LkfF5ZGwAx
Let Texans Choose Power Sources Over Uniform Regulation
"To help Texas stay ahead, customers should be able to bring their own power or buy it from third parties rather than forcing every project through the same regulatory process" https://t.co/jXRHk6ojV6 https://t.co/SmAYls8D4P
Poland and Baltics Poised to Outpace Italy, Spain
"For all of the intellectual dressing, Hungary has ended up looking more like Vladimir Putin’s mafia state, while Poland and the Baltic states, which adopted more classic market solutions, are on course to be richer than Spain and Italy." https://t.co/5aciS10VYB
WSJ Publishes Our Correction to Greer’s Institution Claim
Happy to see @WSJopinion publish my and @clark_packard's corrective to USTR Greer's recent lament re: the death of an institution the US helped kill: https://t.co/PSNtjzxlnu (🎁) https://t.co/WrWZYci8rl
Whirlpool Seeks Tariff Refunds After $300M Cost and Layoffs
Last year, Whirlpool paid $300M in US tariffs, raising its cost of production & denting its margins. It also laid off hundreds of US manufacturing workers in Iowa (Amana refrigerator plant) and reduced its overall US headcount by around 1000. Now...
US EV Sales Plunge 27% in Q1 2026
"New first-quarter 2026 EV sales estimates from Cox Automotive show the US electric-vehicle market shrinking sharply, with total sales down 27% year over year to about 216,000 units." https://t.co/GWpFnebh5l https://t.co/HC6rhLpUBT
US Tariffs Redefined Trade Landscape After One Year
"One year later: How US tariffs and trade policy have reshaped the landscape" https://t.co/F70zDJrgV9 Good review from RBC: https://t.co/fdH0ifQhk3
Higher Crude Delivery Costs Keep $4 Gasoline Persistent
"$4 gasoline looks like it’s here to stay" (for a while, at least) https://t.co/J5FTsSS3ko "The more refiners have to pay for crude deliveries, the more they have to charge for fuel, even if contracts for future oil shipments are cheap by...
Battery Recycler Ascend Elements Declares Bankruptcy Amid EV Slump
"Battery Recycler Ascend Elements Files for Bankruptcy" https://t.co/PJX9pfElvG "The climate tech company boomed during the Biden years but has struggled amid a drop in EV interest." https://t.co/BfKGmSNbZ7
Jones Act Ships Are Foreign-Built, Raising U.S. Shipping Costs
"the United States is still reliant on foreign markets for producing ships. Americans pay higher shipping costs without gaining the purported benefits of insulation from foreign markets. In reality, Jones Act ships are not U.S.-built; they are U.S.-assembled." 😲
Oil Market Frenzy Drains 80% of Emergency Reserves
"Oil Chaos Is Clearest in the Hunt for ASAP Barrels" https://t.co/txxSCuq97g "314 million barrels have been removed from the market already — almost 80% of the record release of emergency reserves announced by the International Energy Agency in March." https://t.co/KUX2MZYcbM
Politics Derails US EV Industry, Leaving Factories Idle
With big losses mounting, big investments getting canceled, and big factory sites sitting empty, EVs have quickly become a case study in how politics thwarts US industrial policy. My latest @opinion piece surveys the very predictable wreckage: /1 https://t.co/SkFZCTtenA
Ford Admits $4.8B EV Loss, Refuses Unprofitable Spending
"Ford CEO Knew the EV Transition Would Hurt, But the Reality Is a $4.8B Loss — 'We Can't Allocate Money For Things That Will Not Make Money'" https://t.co/1UM2eCDJsV https://t.co/0UFTk3eamf
Tariffs Keep Surpassing Even the Most Ridiculous Expectations
Every time I think I've seen the most ridiculous tariff thing, they totally top themselves. It's impressive, really. https://t.co/wU9nRMenyP
Aluminum Producers Raise US Surcharge Amid War‑
World's dumbest tariff strikes again: "Top Aluminum Makers Hike US Surcharge as War Disrupts Supply" https://t.co/RhlIuA1Ll5 https://t.co/Xc1FLheuKV
US Avocado Imports Surge to Record 2.6B Pounds
Resiliency: "US Avocado Imports Hit Record 2.6 Billion Pounds on Sports, Cinco de Mayo" https://t.co/X40efQuehA https://t.co/JhBuKnse35
Navy Exchanges Lose to Walmart, Target, Amazon Despite Tax‑free Perks
"Navy Exchange" stores offer military families tax-free, discounted shopping and "white glove" service... yet are still getting crushed by Walmart, Target, & Amazon https://t.co/cm3IKh2PWR https://t.co/DLIiIO0jSZ
US Blocks Ford's Bid for Aluminum Tariff Relief
"US rejects aluminum tariff relief request from Ford" https://t.co/jFypu1NlqH "While Novelis has been making up for lost production with aluminium from its plants in South Korea and Europe, the imported metal is subject to a 50% duty" https://t.co/KYjObj1b2R
Huge Settlement Funds Attract Plaintiff Lawyers Instantly
"Any time you see a pot of money that big, plaintiffs’ lawyers get very interested" https://t.co/toQJwBTppn
Firms Use Legal and Illegal Tactics to Dodge US Tariffs
In today's thrilling episode of "least surprising tariff news ever", the NYT reports that firms have reacted to historically high and complex US tariffs by engaging in lawful and unlawful ways to avoid paying them. Shocked, shocked, etc etc. https://t.co/f7tZuI7dgo
Manufacturers Skip Tariff Refunds Amid Legal Cost Concerns
"Uncertainty reigns for manufacturers seeking tariff refunds" https://t.co/hbU692VC7S "Of those that have decided not seek refunds, 37% said the anticipated legal costs or effort outweighed the potential refund." Theft. https://t.co/0M3rkxq0dm
Costco Hot Dog Combo Still Cheap in 2026
"How Much Would Costco's Hot Dog & Soda Combo Cost In 2026 If It Accounted For Inflation?" https://t.co/1qBezFp3ev https://t.co/OHlbV9LjwN
Trump Tariffs Trigger Another $15‑20 B in Farm Subsidies
Another $15-$20 billion in US farmer subsidies may be coming, thanks (again) to Trump's tariffs: https://t.co/872jQQ9zXA https://t.co/q8my1D6OiM
Trump Policy Blocks Foreign Doctors, Deepening U.S. Shortage
Shameful and moronic: "Trump’s Immigration Policy Sidelines Foreign Doctors Amid Shortage: Physicians from 39 countries are being pushed out of U.S. hospitals as a policy blocks their ability to work." https://t.co/H5bNHlIhrz https://t.co/b1jQU4oIDU
Simplified Process Comes at Cost: 15% Grid Tariffs
"So yes, the process has been simplified, but only through making many goods subject to heavier tariffs." 15% tariffs on electrical grid equipment at time of rising electrical bills (and rising AI needs) is quite the choice. https://t.co/fR9FByhdMA
Economists: U.S. Firms, Consumers Shoulder 90% of Tariffs
Yet another set of reputable trade economists has found American companies and consumers paying for almost all of Trump's 2025 tariffs (here, 90%): https://t.co/181rja53he https://t.co/CXheguca42