Scott Lincicome

Scott Lincicome

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Trade policy expert; supply chains, tariffs, macro impacts on commodities

Raleigh NIMBYs Turn Housing Opposition Into Poetic Lament
SocialMar 27, 2026

Raleigh NIMBYs Turn Housing Opposition Into Poetic Lament

Raleigh NIMBYs are now writing sad poems lamenting all the housing development, and I AM SO HERE FOR IT. 🤣 https://t.co/zgwEhGOST3

By Scott Lincicome
Sharpie Maker Warns Tariffs Threaten Tennessee Reshoring
SocialMar 26, 2026

Sharpie Maker Warns Tariffs Threaten Tennessee Reshoring

The maker of Sharpie - praised by Trump & other US protectionists - says its "investments in production in Tennessee rely on imported equipment, and the company worries that higher tariffs on those machines could make reshoring and local production...

By Scott Lincicome
Long Airport Queues Push Travelers Toward Cars, Trains
SocialMar 26, 2026

Long Airport Queues Push Travelers Toward Cars, Trains

Substitution: "Airport Lines Stretch for Hours, Forcing Travelers to Pivot to Cars and Trains" https://t.co/IwWMBV6Bmz

By Scott Lincicome
Bloomberg Finds No Oil Tankers in Hormuz Despite Trump Claim
SocialMar 26, 2026

Bloomberg Finds No Oil Tankers in Hormuz Despite Trump Claim

"Tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg shows no sign of the eight big boats full of oil that are going right up the middle of the Hormuz strait that President Trump just mentioned in his briefing." https://t.co/WnyafirUj0

By Scott Lincicome
OECD Predicts US Inflation Hitting 4.2% Amid Tight Labor Market
SocialMar 26, 2026

OECD Predicts US Inflation Hitting 4.2% Amid Tight Labor Market

"For the US, the OECD expects inflation to jump to 4.2% this year... Its price outlook for this year is 1.2 percentage point higher than in December, also because the labor market remains tight with slowing net migration and tariffs...

By Scott Lincicome
Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US
SocialMar 26, 2026

Import Prices Surge 2.8%, Tariff Burden Shifts to US

"Compared with February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum climbed 2.8% — the most since October 2022 and suggesting the tariff burden is falling primarily on US importers." (The index here does not include tariffs.) https://t.co/BThM0jjJxj https://t.co/QmsfwHVOLd

By Scott Lincicome
One in Five Tax Dollars Go to Debt Service
SocialMar 26, 2026

One in Five Tax Dollars Go to Debt Service

"For every five dollars the government receives in tax revenue, one dollar is spent on servicing the national debt" https://t.co/GZLf2MrQBV https://t.co/2mBzfPVgm2

By Scott Lincicome
Economists Agree Jones Act Costs Outweigh Security Benefits
SocialMar 26, 2026

Economists Agree Jones Act Costs Outweigh Security Benefits

By overwhelming margins, top economists agree the Jones Act's economic costs outweigh any possible national security benefits (and at least one "disagree" clearly misunderstood the question): https://t.co/gu4X7BdYd1 https://t.co/YMnnHZtyRM

By Scott Lincicome
U.S. Waterways Already Permit Nonunion Foreign Ships in Transit
SocialMar 25, 2026

U.S. Waterways Already Permit Nonunion Foreign Ships in Transit

Reminder: U.S. waterways are already open to "nonunion foreign competitors" as long as these ships are transiting between a US port and a foreign port. And this happens all the time.

By Scott Lincicome
Middle East Conflict Forces BASF, Dow to Hike Chemical Prices
SocialMar 25, 2026

Middle East Conflict Forces BASF, Dow to Hike Chemical Prices

"Chemicals Giant BASF Hikes Prices Again as Mideast War Drives Up Costs" https://t.co/MuHgqG5rn4 "US chemical giant Dow said Tuesday that it would raise prices of polyethylene...by twice as much as previously announced." https://t.co/w4t5xn2uY1

By Scott Lincicome
Governments Sign Free‑trade Deals, Sparing Consumers New Tariffs
SocialMar 25, 2026

Governments Sign Free‑trade Deals, Sparing Consumers New Tariffs

Yes, and the kicker is that these governments keep signing real, durable, comprehensive FREE TRADE deals without imposing costly new taxes (tariffs) on their consumers. Almost as if....

By Scott Lincicome
TACO Boosts Trump, War Uncertainty Keeps Oil Low
SocialMar 25, 2026

TACO Boosts Trump, War Uncertainty Keeps Oil Low

"Rather than being a sign of weakness, TACO is working in Trump’s favor. No one knows for certain when or if he’ll try to end the war, which has been enough to stop traders from pushing up the oil price."...

By Scott Lincicome
US Import Prices Surge to Four‑Year High
SocialMar 25, 2026

US Import Prices Surge to Four‑Year High

"US Import Prices Jump by Most in Nearly Four Years Ahead of Iran War" "Excluding petroleum, import costs advanced 1.2%, the most since January 2022 and driven by higher prices for capital goods and consumer merchandise excluding automobiles." https://t.co/0glmjMPmLR

By Scott Lincicome
D.C. Streetcar: Built Yet Still a Wasteful Disappointment
SocialMar 25, 2026

D.C. Streetcar: Built Yet Still a Wasteful Disappointment

"The D.C. Streetcar is a good example of how, even when something is built, it can still be a wasteful disappointment." https://t.co/rDmA0XIdet https://t.co/6rczQvLuas

By Scott Lincicome
EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Launches May 1, Covering 25% of Global GDP
SocialMar 25, 2026

EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Launches May 1, Covering 25% of Global GDP

"EU says Mercosur free trade deal will start May 1, accounting for 25% of global GDP" https://t.co/357IyH3KRA https://t.co/tpysXMlyjm

By Scott Lincicome
Pentagon's $200B Iran Request Could Push 2026 Deficit to $2 Trillion
SocialMar 24, 2026

Pentagon's $200B Iran Request Could Push 2026 Deficit to $2 Trillion

"The Pentagon has already asked Congress for $200 billion in extra funding for the Iran conflict. If not offset by new revenue or spending cuts, that would take the 2026 deficit near $2 trillion compared with the $1.78 trillion for...

By Scott Lincicome
Service Input Costs Hit May High; Manufacturers at Seven‑month Peak
SocialMar 24, 2026

Service Input Costs Hit May High; Manufacturers at Seven‑month Peak

"Input prices for services rose to the highest since May, while those for manufacturers jumped to a seven-month high." https://t.co/NMR6KvBOzE https://t.co/DhoJ1m76qO

By Scott Lincicome
Rising $5 Diesel Squeezes Truckers, Hits Economy
SocialMar 24, 2026

Rising $5 Diesel Squeezes Truckers, Hits Economy

"$5 Diesel is Crushing Truckers. It Will Soon Be Felt Across the Economy." https://t.co/u6Z4qcVLci https://t.co/m3UrTU1L2r

By Scott Lincicome
Speed and Security Don't Justify Government Equity Stakes
SocialMar 24, 2026

Speed and Security Don't Justify Government Equity Stakes

"Rare Earths, Vulcan, and Government Equity Stakes" https://t.co/O8xyNepv2V via @CatoInstitute @DeHavenTad "The case for speed is not a case for ownership—and the case for national security is not a case for normalizing a model in which politically favored firms receive...

By Scott Lincicome
Seattle's Wage Law Backfires, Union Seeks Driver Caps
SocialMar 24, 2026

Seattle's Wage Law Backfires, Union Seeks Driver Caps

"Seattle’s minimum wage laws backfired on Uber and Lyft. Now the union wants to limit drivers." https://t.co/yyrovnhDDm https://t.co/j3U4RP4jg4

By Scott Lincicome
Fake SAP Cleared 1 in 85 CDL Drivers
SocialMar 24, 2026

Fake SAP Cleared 1 in 85 CDL Drivers

"One in every 85 CDL drivers who completed the federal return-to-duty process and were cleared to operate a commercial vehicle may have been cleared by a truck driver from North Wilkesboro, North Carolina, who was pretending to be a self-certified...

By Scott Lincicome
Naphtha Shortage Halts Plants, Sends Asian Markets Tumbling
SocialMar 24, 2026

Naphtha Shortage Halts Plants, Sends Asian Markets Tumbling

"Petrochemical Shutdowns Spark Industry Shock, Asian Markets Plunge: Naphtha shortages force South Korea, Japan plant halts as Asian stocks crash amid supply fears" https://t.co/SZ6pwkCiSi https://t.co/se32khyggJ

By Scott Lincicome
Australia, EU Finalize Trade Pact Amid US Tariff Pressure
SocialMar 24, 2026

Australia, EU Finalize Trade Pact Amid US Tariff Pressure

"Australia and EU seal sensitive trade deal" https://t.co/SVt8r09Man "With U.S. President Donald Trump slamming tariffs on allies globally, Brussels and Canberra rekindled their negotiations last year." https://t.co/0jxir9qjN2

By Scott Lincicome
Hanwha’s US Shipyard Builds One Ship Yearly, Korea Weekly
SocialMar 23, 2026

Hanwha’s US Shipyard Builds One Ship Yearly, Korea Weekly

"The Hanwha Philly shipyard delivers around 1 ship a year. A South Korean Hanwha shipyard delivers 1 a week." https://t.co/OwUFfT0mmc

By Scott Lincicome
US Tariffs Waste Billions on Steel, Aluminum, Copper
SocialMar 23, 2026

US Tariffs Waste Billions on Steel, Aluminum, Copper

A back of napkin estimate (based on DOD spending on metals and the current price differential bt US and world market prices) indicates that the federal government wastes BILLIONS each year due to US steel, aluminum, & copper tariffs alone:...

By Scott Lincicome
California's $20 Fast‑food Wage Lifts Food Prices 3‑4%
SocialMar 23, 2026

California's $20 Fast‑food Wage Lifts Food Prices 3‑4%

New @nberpubs: "The Effects of California's $20 Fast Food Minimum Wage on Prices" https://t.co/pdrjLJOmR7 "Food away from home prices in California's four in-sample MSAs increased by 3.3 to 3.6 percent relative to 17 control MSAs through December 2024." 😲 https://t.co/Y6uER8kNGi

By Scott Lincicome
Cutting Top Tax Rates Could Boost Revenue, Study Finds
SocialMar 23, 2026

Cutting Top Tax Rates Could Boost Revenue, Study Finds

New @nberpubs: "Substitution and Income Effects of Labor Income Taxation" https://t.co/pjcuD9w78x "These findings imply a substantial excess burden of taxation, and that reducing top-income tax rates would increase tax revenue." https://t.co/Mjhhws6raG

By Scott Lincicome
New Work Counters Automation by Creating Premium Expertise
SocialMar 23, 2026

New Work Counters Automation by Creating Premium Expertise

New @nberpubs: "What Makes New Work Different from More Work?" https://t.co/UTizy5J0Tr "new work serves as a countervailing force to automation-driven job displacement not merely by creating additional employment, but also by generating new domains of human expertise that command market premiums"

By Scott Lincicome
China Transforms From Free Rider to Drug Innovator
SocialMar 23, 2026

China Transforms From Free Rider to Drug Innovator

New @nberpubs: "From Free Rider to Innovator: The Rise of China's Drug Development" https://t.co/cQpEqRC1jy https://t.co/pSL5kCzlnO

By Scott Lincicome
Study Finds Firm Monopsony Power Weaker Than Expected
SocialMar 23, 2026

Study Finds Firm Monopsony Power Weaker Than Expected

New @nberpubs: "Identifying Uncertainty, Learning about Productivity, and Human Capital Acquisition: A Reassessment of Labor Market Sorting and Firm Monopsony Power" https://t.co/jCozurjBnv "We find... a lower degree of firm monopsony power than typically documented." https://t.co/alf5En23h8

By Scott Lincicome
Century‑Old Jones Act Still Stifles U.S. Shipping
SocialMar 23, 2026

Century‑Old Jones Act Still Stifles U.S. Shipping

The best parts of this very good @60Minutes segment have gotta be when @cpgrabow tells @LesleyRStahl a few basic Jones Act absurdities, and she repeatedly gasps "NO!" in disbelief - truly shocked that a century-old US law could be...

By Scott Lincicome
Quebec-Queens Hydropower Line Could Light One Million NYC Homes
SocialMar 22, 2026

Quebec-Queens Hydropower Line Could Light One Million NYC Homes

"Hydropower Line From Quebec to Queens Could Power a Million N.Y.C. Homes" https://t.co/CEfzSRT1cG "Its construction included the underwater installation of more than two million feet of cable imported from Sweden" https://t.co/xqTcpfviM5

By Scott Lincicome
U.S. Tariffs on Menstrual Products Triple Since 2020
SocialMar 22, 2026

U.S. Tariffs on Menstrual Products Triple Since 2020

"According to government data, the U.S. collected $115 million through tariffs on menstrual products containing cotton in 2025, compared with just $42 million in 2020." https://t.co/myTChDYcYR https://t.co/PSGFpKlkaO

By Scott Lincicome
China Faces Gas Shortfall as Gulf LNG Runs Out
SocialMar 22, 2026

China Faces Gas Shortfall as Gulf LNG Runs Out

"World faces gas supply cliff edge as Gulf’s final LNG shipments approach ports" https://t.co/OjcnxXcs8a "China gets 30 per cent of its LNG from the Gulf but has some domestic gas production and can switch to coal-fired power generation if needed." https://t.co/ikbgxbUPhV

By Scott Lincicome
200,000 U.S. Truckers Face CDL Loss Under New Rules
SocialMar 22, 2026

200,000 U.S. Truckers Face CDL Loss Under New Rules

"Up to 200,000 drivers, approximately 5% of the entire U.S. truck driver workforce, could lose CDL eligibility as licenses expire under the new framework. The press covered it as an immigration story. That is the least interesting part of it"...

By Scott Lincicome
White House Must Reopen Strait of Hormuz Quickly
SocialMar 22, 2026

White House Must Reopen Strait of Hormuz Quickly

"To expect it to cave in today... ignores past lessons. And unlike the Islamic Republic, the White House doesn’t have the benefit of time. It needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at worst, weeks." - @JavierBlas...

By Scott Lincicome
Deregulation Shocks Drive Investment, Productivity, and GDP Growth
SocialMar 22, 2026

Deregulation Shocks Drive Investment, Productivity, and GDP Growth

"Quantifying Deregulation and its Economic Effects: A Large Language Model Approach" https://t.co/roqt5w8PzH "Positive shocks to deregulation boost investment, productivity, stock prices, profits, and GDP" 👀 https://t.co/3GEjbPT2Fx

By Scott Lincicome
Supply Chain Gaps Cripple Energy Despite Abundant Output
SocialMar 22, 2026

Supply Chain Gaps Cripple Energy Despite Abundant Output

"The Waha market’s collapse underscores a pressing issue in global energy: Even when there’s enough raw-material output, many parts of the world lack the critical supply chains necessary to ship product where it’s needed" https://t.co/SUdaWtbJpH https://t.co/I9cYdXcGNR

By Scott Lincicome
Middle East Sulfur Reliance Fuels Fertilizer Supply Shock
SocialMar 22, 2026

Middle East Sulfur Reliance Fuels Fertilizer Supply Shock

"Fertilizer Shock Escalates as New Supply Risks Emerge" https://t.co/lgfrgMYRFg "almost half of the world’s supply of sulfur—which is turned into sulfuric acid for the processing of phosphate fertilizer—comes from countries in the Middle East" And US tariffs are making things worse:

By Scott Lincicome
Moderate Wine Drinkers Cut Heart Death Risk 21%
SocialMar 21, 2026

Moderate Wine Drinkers Cut Heart Death Risk 21%

A new study of more than 340k British adults finds that moderate wine drinkers (1-3 glasses/day) have a 21% lower risk of dying from cardiovascular disease versus people who never drink or do so occasionally. I will be accepting no...

By Scott Lincicome
Operation Epic Fury Costs an Extra $16‑23 Billion
SocialMar 21, 2026

Operation Epic Fury Costs an Extra $16‑23 Billion

"We estimate the incremental cost of Operation Epic Fury, including positioning maritime and aviation assets in the Middle East starting at the end of December, is between $16.2 and $23.4 billion." https://t.co/LtRjMhx9tD https://t.co/TKCJ1JX9B2

By Scott Lincicome
Iran Regime Consolidates, Becomes More Extreme, Won’t Collapse
SocialMar 21, 2026

Iran Regime Consolidates, Becomes More Extreme, Won’t Collapse

"After more than two weeks of consistent bombing, new US intelligence suggests Iran’s regime is now consolidating power, unlikely to collapse, and led by a cadre more extreme than before." 😬 https://t.co/nm2AtU0jjv

By Scott Lincicome
US Plasma Sales Power Billion‑Dollar Industry, Aid Lives
SocialMar 20, 2026

US Plasma Sales Power Billion‑Dollar Industry, Aid Lives

The US lets people sell their blood plasma, creating a multibillion-dollar industry (70% of global supply, 62.5M liters donated, $6.2B in exports) that saves countless lives and gives Americans a safe way to make a little cash (thus reducing their...

By Scott Lincicome
Section 301 Probe Relies on Flawed Economics to Push New Tariffs
SocialMar 20, 2026

Section 301 Probe Relies on Flawed Economics to Push New Tariffs

Good summary of how the new US Section 301 investigation of "structural excess capacity" is based on shoddy economics and clearly just rigged to get to new tariffs: https://t.co/vW75C0H5Y9 https://t.co/vLsCLihqxd

By Scott Lincicome
Afroman's March Victory Sparks 2026 Feel‑Good Momentum
SocialMar 20, 2026

Afroman's March Victory Sparks 2026 Feel‑Good Momentum

I know it's only March, but Afroman's victory is an early candidate for the Feel-Good Story of 2026.

By Scott Lincicome
Bezos Plans $100B Fund to Automate Manufacturing with AI
SocialMar 19, 2026

Bezos Plans $100B Fund to Automate Manufacturing with AI

"Jeff Bezos is in early talks to raise $100 billion for a new fund that would buy up manufacturing companies and seek to use AI technology to accelerate their path to automation." https://t.co/UmA1I3g0xp

By Scott Lincicome
Afrom
SocialMar 19, 2026

Afrom

"US rapper Afroman cleared after police sued him over use of home raid footage" https://t.co/nm31pAaIKZ "I didn’t win, America won,” 🤣 https://t.co/B6bFcL256t

By Scott Lincicome
EU and Australia Near Trade Deal Completion Next Week
SocialMar 19, 2026

EU and Australia Near Trade Deal Completion Next Week

The world moves on: "EU, Australia set to conclude trade talks early next week" https://t.co/0QuEvOaog1

By Scott Lincicome
Hormuz Reopening Dependent on Ceasefire and Neutralizing Iran
SocialMar 18, 2026

Hormuz Reopening Dependent on Ceasefire and Neutralizing Iran

"Hormuz Reopening Looks Unlikely Without a Ceasefire" https://t.co/XMIRCwxYZf "Until we’ve neutralized Iran’s layered, asymmetric capabilities- mines, fast attack craft, submarines and drones- we won’t want to put commercial or even escort ships through" - @Bob_McNally https://t.co/ytg2suC6Mi

By Scott Lincicome