Scott Lincicome

Scott Lincicome

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Trade policy expert; supply chains, tariffs, macro impacts on commodities

Manufacturers Lose Jobs as Workers Demand White House Aid
SocialMar 17, 2026

Manufacturers Lose Jobs as Workers Demand White House Aid

"U.S. manufacturers are still shedding thousands of jobs, as workers ask White House for help" https://t.co/hX6gW5SPYz Maybe they should stop "helping"? https://t.co/Wr4BjjhYfw

By Scott Lincicome
Chinese Aluminum Gains as Middle East Raw Material Routes Shift
SocialMar 17, 2026

Chinese Aluminum Gains as Middle East Raw Material Routes Shift

"Chinese aluminum producers are set to benefit from a rerouting of raw materials away from the Middle East." https://t.co/1y03SlyLey https://t.co/vALp8dzRls

By Scott Lincicome
West's Final Aluminum Smelter Demolition Ends Historic Industry
SocialMar 17, 2026

West's Final Aluminum Smelter Demolition Ends Historic Industry

"The West's last aluminum smelter is coming down, taking a way of life with it" https://t.co/lMTBTxsTWc https://t.co/9NccDrPbTA

By Scott Lincicome
Iran Conflict Spikes Fertilizer Costs, Deepening Farmers' Woes
SocialMar 17, 2026

Iran Conflict Spikes Fertilizer Costs, Deepening Farmers' Woes

"Minnesota corn farmers withstood a trade war. The war in Iran is the next cost challenge. The conflict is increasing the cost of an essential fertilizer. With corn prices already down, it’s another financial headache for farmers." https://t.co/NT2pX8mfN9

By Scott Lincicome
Austin's Housing Surplus Turns Market Into Buyer’s Paradise
SocialMar 17, 2026

Austin's Housing Surplus Turns Market Into Buyer’s Paradise

"With supply far outweighing demand, Austin has turned into a firm buyer’s market - giving house hunters more options, more negotiating power and more time to shop around." 😲 https://t.co/d4pZOxWqcs

By Scott Lincicome
VinFast Resumes US EV Plant, Scaled‑down Amid Growing Losses
SocialMar 17, 2026

VinFast Resumes US EV Plant, Scaled‑down Amid Growing Losses

"VinFast to Resume US EV Plant Construction as Loss Widens" https://t.co/iDt2io8Uw2 "The US factory’s scale is likely to be much smaller than first envisaged." 🤔🤔 https://t.co/mHd22RogbL

By Scott Lincicome
China Curbs Fertilizer Exports, Iran War Spikes Global Prices
SocialMar 16, 2026

China Curbs Fertilizer Exports, Iran War Spikes Global Prices

"China is tightening its curbs on fertilizer exports as the war in Iran disrupts trade of key crop nutrients, driving up prices globally." https://t.co/X35yEEwYZH

By Scott Lincicome
US Spends More on Computer Offices than Human Offices
SocialMar 16, 2026

US Spends More on Computer Offices than Human Offices

US spending on offices for computers has now surpassed US spending on offices for humans: https://t.co/fQstRLnjUG https://t.co/LiT7OQpCcC

By Scott Lincicome
Hormuz Attacks Drive Soaring Tanker Insurance Premiums, US Aid Unclear
SocialMar 16, 2026

Hormuz Attacks Drive Soaring Tanker Insurance Premiums, US Aid Unclear

"Shipping Insurance Costs for Hormuz Passage Surge After Vessel Attacks" https://t.co/Aq3e4lGXyX "Details of a plan for the US International Development Finance Corporation to help insure tankers are still unclear." https://t.co/mC9xKl2B7o

By Scott Lincicome
Double Standards: Free Trade for Us, Tariffs for Rivals
SocialMar 14, 2026

Double Standards: Free Trade for Us, Tariffs for Rivals

Free trade for my inputs; tariffs for my competitors. A tale as old as time.

By Scott Lincicome
Tariffs Fail to Boost Manufacturing Jobs, May Reduce Payrolls
SocialMar 14, 2026

Tariffs Fail to Boost Manufacturing Jobs, May Reduce Payrolls

"One thing becoming clear: tariffs on foreign imports didn't result in an increase in manufacturing payrolls (and may have directly resulted in the opposite)." 🙀 https://t.co/zvrbKgPxg3 https://t.co/h5DLBYPjf6

By Scott Lincicome
US Lifts Anti-Dumping Duties on 13 Italian Pasta Brands
SocialMar 14, 2026

US Lifts Anti-Dumping Duties on 13 Italian Pasta Brands

"The US Department of Commerce has cut anti-dumping duties on 13 Italian pasta brands following an investigation into alleged export undercutting, Italy's Foreign Ministry announced." https://t.co/2KrLcSuyUY https://t.co/7S8ssbunhj

By Scott Lincicome
Geopolitical Instability Acts as Economic Parasite, Raising Costs
SocialMar 13, 2026

Geopolitical Instability Acts as Economic Parasite, Raising Costs

Dr. Navarro is right: nations' "destabilizing behavior" boosts trade uncertainty and is a "a parasite on the global economy—quietly draining growth through slightly higher [] prices, transportation costs and production expenses year after year."

By Scott Lincicome
Gulf Oil Shock Drives Naphtha Prices up 50%
SocialMar 13, 2026

Gulf Oil Shock Drives Naphtha Prices up 50%

"Gulf oil shock deepens crisis for Asia’s petrochemicals industry" https://t.co/4C3WI6qHaW "Prices of naphtha have jumped by half since last month to $875 a tonne" https://t.co/rNT2eRMXls

By Scott Lincicome
Higher Tariffs Inevitably Drive Increased Fraud and Evasion
SocialMar 13, 2026

Higher Tariffs Inevitably Drive Increased Fraud and Evasion

Higher tariffs have LONG been associated with more evasion (fraud, piracy, etc). That's why most fiscal/econ projections of tariff effects (eg, @TaxFoundation) account for some evasion/leakage. No surprise historically high/complex tariffs led to tons of fraud. It's baked in.

By Scott Lincicome
Government Policies, Not Investors, Drive Unaffordable Starter Homes
SocialMar 13, 2026

Government Policies, Not Investors, Drive Unaffordable Starter Homes

While Congress wrongly attacks institutional housing investors, my latest @opinion column explores several of the govt policies that actually increase US home prices and make building a "starter home" impossible today: /1

By Scott Lincicome
Factory-Built Homes Rise, yet Government Roadblocks Persist
SocialMar 13, 2026

Factory-Built Homes Rise, yet Government Roadblocks Persist

"Bucking stigma, more places turn to factory-built for affordable housing" https://t.co/yeNauGByp5 As usual, governments stand in the way: https://t.co/MyFyCgTTjz

By Scott Lincicome
Honda Abandons EVs, Faces $15.7B Cost as Startups Surge
SocialMar 13, 2026

Honda Abandons EVs, Faces $15.7B Cost as Startups Surge

"Honda Scraps Plans for E.V.s While Start-Ups Forge Ahead" https://t.co/UTDXx2aZBk "Honda said it expected the cost of switching direction on electric vehicles to total 2.5 trillion yen, or $15.7 billion, this year and in years to come" 😲 https://t.co/4OREGNQjqN

By Scott Lincicome
Suspending Jones Act Could Lower U.S. Fuel Costs
SocialMar 13, 2026

Suspending Jones Act Could Lower U.S. Fuel Costs

"What the Jones Act does and how a Trump suspension could affect fuel prices" https://t.co/goGJwDm2EN https://t.co/s2CTtPeu6A

By Scott Lincicome
Misguided US Tariffs Spawn Costly Refund and Calculation Services
SocialMar 11, 2026

Misguided US Tariffs Spawn Costly Refund and Calculation Services

So, now I'm seeing ads for IEEPA tariff refunds and US tariff calculation work. On the one hand, the market works. On the other hand, this is costly and only necessary because of misguided US tariff policy https://t.co/nU32IBGoFO

By Scott Lincicome
Pentagon Threatens Blacklist Unless Company Alters Product, Violating Free Speech
SocialMar 11, 2026

Pentagon Threatens Blacklist Unless Company Alters Product, Violating Free Speech

"The Pentagon gave a private company a choice: change your product to meet our demands or face being largely blacklisted. Such a choice is an affront to the values enshrined in the First Amendment and those that the US has...

By Scott Lincicome
Treasury Confirms New Tariffs, USTR Prewrites Justifications
SocialMar 11, 2026

Treasury Confirms New Tariffs, USTR Prewrites Justifications

No suspense here, seeing as the Treasury Secretary already confirmed that these "investigations" will result in new tariffs. The only question is how USTR will justify the conclusions the White House has already written

By Scott Lincicome
Diesel Price Surge Forces Costs Onto Retailers and Factories
SocialMar 11, 2026

Diesel Price Surge Forces Costs Onto Retailers and Factories

"Record Diesel-Price Surge Hits U.S. Truckers, Retailers and Manufacturers" https://t.co/5jBpvH4MCa "Most large trucking companies will pass the added costs on to American stores and factories..." Fortunately, US factories aren't already facing soaring costs, so it's fi- oh. https://t.co/ZU45kzcUbj

By Scott Lincicome
Blue States Stall Projects with Endless Studies, Not Waymos
SocialMar 11, 2026

Blue States Stall Projects with Endless Studies, Not Waymos

Yep: "Red states get Waymos. Blue states get studies." https://t.co/NpcSYElH74 via @kelseytuoc "Time and again, when there’s a controversial upzoning or transit project, opponents will demand studies in order to delay or undermine important projects."

By Scott Lincicome
Globalization Remains Resilient Amid Bloc Formation Talk
SocialMar 11, 2026

Globalization Remains Resilient Amid Bloc Formation Talk

Toldja: "Globalization is proving resilient" https://t.co/IpMqFYjhJK The data's "a counter-narrative to politicians and analysts arguing that economic disengagement and the formation of new, distinct geopolitical blocs are happening in any seismic way" Twas always a silly idea. https://t.co/UcJgPpaAFP

By Scott Lincicome
Remote‑First Policies Win Talent, Undermine Office Return
SocialMar 11, 2026

Remote‑First Policies Win Talent, Undermine Office Return

"The return-to-the-office trend backfires" https://t.co/iB1cPOgbRm "Executives do not adopt remote-first for public relations purposes — they adopt it to win talent markets." https://t.co/vlt8l58rp7

By Scott Lincicome
US Fertilizer Prices Surge with Global Market Trends
SocialMar 11, 2026

US Fertilizer Prices Surge with Global Market Trends

"Farmers Face Skyrocketing Fertilizer Prices," https://t.co/CYP8u85BYC "Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets." 😲 https://t.co/5N5ApqoDhL

By Scott Lincicome
China's Export Surge Leaves Workers Facing Wage Cuts
SocialMar 10, 2026

China's Export Surge Leaves Workers Facing Wage Cuts

Industrial policy FTW: "China's Tariff-Defying Export Boom Leaves Its Factory Workers Behind: Workers who powered a tariff-defying boom tell a grim story of falling wages and vanishing jobs." https://t.co/cIfJHANUgW https://t.co/ZIN1PXUzwE

By Scott Lincicome
Yamaha Exits California, Relocates HQ to Georgia for Profit Boost
SocialMar 10, 2026

Yamaha Exits California, Relocates HQ to Georgia for Profit Boost

"Yamaha pulling out of California after nearly half a century: HQ headed to Georgia" https://t.co/YKZQMRDhJ6 "The motorcycle and motorsports giant says the move is part of major 'structural reforms' meant to boost profits as costs climb — including pressure from...

By Scott Lincicome
Leftist Pro‑Competition Advocates Shockingly Back Jones Act
SocialMar 10, 2026

Leftist Pro‑Competition Advocates Shockingly Back Jones Act

It will never stop being hilarious/telling that certain "pro-competition" lefties openly support the Jones Act.

By Scott Lincicome
New Risk Factor Makes Strait of Hormuz Too Costly.
SocialMar 10, 2026

New Risk Factor Makes Strait of Hormuz Too Costly.

"There's another big reason why shipping companies and insurers aren't willing to risk the Strait of Hormuz" https://t.co/vQRVNaMtNL https://t.co/xPjkCzHB0U

By Scott Lincicome
Repealing Jones Act Would Instantly Boost U.S. Oil Transport
SocialMar 10, 2026

Repealing Jones Act Would Instantly Boost U.S. Oil Transport

"On the other hand, repealing the Jones Act, which would allow non-U.S. tankers to transport oil between U.S. ports, would immediately have salutary effects" 🔥 https://t.co/mIuRPyAKFY https://t.co/Rcxft259fv

By Scott Lincicome
Oil Surge Prompts Trump to Reevaluate Jones Act
SocialMar 9, 2026

Oil Surge Prompts Trump to Reevaluate Jones Act

"Oil Prices: Crude's Wild Day Has Trump Rethinking the Jones Act" https://t.co/YKhaomLkrd For the record, it's technically not "trutherism" if it's - you know - the actual Truth. https://t.co/7CZuzc3gja

By Scott Lincicome
Tariffs Incrementally Push Retail Prices Higher in 2025
SocialMar 9, 2026

Tariffs Incrementally Push Retail Prices Higher in 2025

"The Slow Climb: How Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025" via @federalreserve https://t.co/HJiDIY3j8v "consumers are in fact paying higher retail prices because of tariffs" 😮 https://t.co/SbgM6kbcPA

By Scott Lincicome
U.S. Oil Intensity Drives $187 M Daily Gas Price Spike
SocialMar 9, 2026

U.S. Oil Intensity Drives $187 M Daily Gas Price Spike

"US oil intensity is twice as high as the European Union and 40% higher than China’s... That makes it harder for American consumers to shield themselves from rising gasoline prices... Americans are already spending $187 million more a day on...

By Scott Lincicome
Tariffs Linked to 240k Job Losses in Manufacturing and Transport
SocialMar 9, 2026

Tariffs Linked to 240k Job Losses in Manufacturing and Transport

"Tariffs may have affected manufacturing employment, which declined by 119,000 in 2025. Likewise, the trade sensitive transportation and warehousing sector declined by 123,800." https://t.co/ed9bs6nNSn

By Scott Lincicome
Apple Shifts to 3D‑printed Aluminum for Greener MacBooks
SocialMar 9, 2026

Apple Shifts to 3D‑printed Aluminum for Greener MacBooks

Dematerialization: "MacBook Neo’s Manufacturing Involves A New Process That Saves As Much Aluminum As Possible, Now Apple Is Moving To The Next Step; 3D Printing The Same Metal" https://t.co/7YvmvjZD5Q https://t.co/Ft8yo52n3x

By Scott Lincicome
Sudden Guest Worker Halt Triggers Firm Closures, No Local Hiring
SocialMar 9, 2026

Sudden Guest Worker Halt Triggers Firm Closures, No Local Hiring

"The Effects of a Sudden Stop in Low-Skilled Immigration: Evidence from Korea’s Guest Worker Program" https://t.co/7CVAD5Zj6v "the collapse in inflows led to a significant increase in firm exit.... Firms did not respond by expanding domestic hiring to replace missing guest workers."

By Scott Lincicome
Trump Tariffs Stalled Job Growth, Raising Business Costs
SocialMar 8, 2026

Trump Tariffs Stalled Job Growth, Raising Business Costs

"Job growth notably stalled after President Trump began his tariff barrage last April, which created economic uncertainty and raised business costs." https://t.co/jaNVkXohlg

By Scott Lincicome
U.S. Public Backing International Trade Hits Record High
SocialMar 8, 2026

U.S. Public Backing International Trade Hits Record High

American support for international trade is at an all-time high (and, no, not just among Democrats) https://t.co/QayxCkWNFn

By Scott Lincicome
US Beef Supply Relies Heavily on Mexican Cattle
SocialMar 8, 2026

US Beef Supply Relies Heavily on Mexican Cattle

"Texas Feedlot Operators Explain Why U.S. Beef Supply Depends on Mexican Cattle Imports" https://t.co/D3IHviRfRg https://t.co/fO9Ac9MceR

By Scott Lincicome
Customs Can Refund Automatically, Yet Reluctantly Delay
SocialMar 6, 2026

Customs Can Refund Automatically, Yet Reluctantly Delay

"'Customs does have automated systems to process refunds,' said David Cohen, a partner at Sandler, Travis and Rosenberg. 'Yes, the magnitude is unprecedented, but the tariff refund process takes place routinely.'" They just don't want to do it.

By Scott Lincicome
CBP Easily Collects Illegal Taxes, Struggles to Refund Them
SocialMar 6, 2026

CBP Easily Collects Illegal Taxes, Struggles to Refund Them

It was easy for CBP to collect the illegal taxes, but it's apparently impossible for them to return the illegal taxes (with interest). Sure, Jan. https://t.co/t3ZvGLtijs

By Scott Lincicome
Blue States Cite Friedman in Landmark Tariff Lawsuit
SocialMar 5, 2026

Blue States Cite Friedman in Landmark Tariff Lawsuit

"Twenty-Four States Led by Oregon File Lawsuit Challenging Trump's Section 122 Tariffs" https://t.co/SqGRbF04Xc "This may be the first time a lawsuit filed by blue state governments quoted Milton Friedman" 🔥

By Scott Lincicome
Delays in Tariff Refunds Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly
SocialMar 4, 2026

Delays in Tariff Refunds Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly

"Tariff refund delays could cost U.S. taxpayers $700 million a month in interest, report finds" https://t.co/MHgXnrl4vk

By Scott Lincicome
Judge Sets Deadline for Customs Tariff Refund Plan
SocialMar 4, 2026

Judge Sets Deadline for Customs Tariff Refund Plan

🚨IEEPA REFUND UPDATE🚨 "Senior Judge Richard Eaton gave government counsel until Friday to prepare initial ideas on how customs could refund the tariffs to importers, without them having to file a lawsuit." More, please.

By Scott Lincicome
CBP Admits Delay, Conditional Refunds on Illegal Tariffs
SocialMar 4, 2026

CBP Admits Delay, Conditional Refunds on Illegal Tariffs

Here's CBP in a new filing admitting: 1) They're not voluntarily refunding IEEPA tariffs illegally collected last year 2) They're in no rush 3) They'll pay interest on "validated" refunds but will review everything for "violations" (that might allow them to deny refunds?)...

By Scott Lincicome
US Must Pay Interest on All Tariff Refunds
SocialMar 4, 2026

US Must Pay Interest on All Tariff Refunds

"US to Pay Interest If Ordered to Pay Importers Tariff Refunds" https://t.co/An3drmGJ4F It is the law, after all. Question is: how many refunds actually get issued after a lengthy court/administrative battle. The answer should be: all, now. But... https://t.co/xGmrydPr1P

By Scott Lincicome
Trump’s Retreat Proves IEEPA Bans, Not Taxes
SocialMar 4, 2026

Trump’s Retreat Proves IEEPA Bans, Not Taxes

Assuming Trump backs off his Spanish Embargo threat (a safe assumption, IMO), it won't just be another TACO. It'll perfectly prove @ATabarrok's point here about why an emergency wartime law like IEEPA would allow a presidential import ban but not...

By Scott Lincicome