Minimum Wage Shifts Labor Outcomes for Marginal Imm
New @nberpubs: "Immigrants at the Margin: Labor Market Effects of the Minimum Wage" https://t.co/77L73xAozW https://t.co/rULy0k3oGs
Tariff on Auto Parts Doubles Consumer Losses, Cuts U.S. Profits
New @nberpubs: "Tariffs, Global Value Chains, and the Incidence of Protection: Evidence from US Automobiles" https://t.co/qydVvo0gkV Extending tariffs to intermediate inputs doubles consumer losses, "and producer surplus for U.S.-headquartered firms declines by about $2.6 billion" 😲
Chinese AI Patents Still Lean on U.S. Research
New @nberpubs: "AI Patents in the United States and China: Measurement, Organization, and Knowledge Flows" https://t.co/418A2ywXHx "continued technological interdependence rather than decoupling, with Chinese AI inventors relying more heavily on U.S. frontier knowledge than vice versa"
U.S. Work Hours Fell After 2000 Thanks to Health Benefits
New @nberpubs: "Why Do Americans No Longer Work So Much More Than Non-Americans?" https://t.co/xbwDGmS5Ub "U.S. hours per person declined after 2000 owing mainly to the rise of government health benefits provided to the non-employed." https://t.co/8Mwr2rFs0G
Three Tariffs Put U.S. Heavy‑Truck Makers at Disadvantage
"U.S. Manufacturers Of Heavy-Duty Trucks Face A Tariff Disadvantage" https://t.co/ihpfPPczuL "There are three sets of tariffs affecting the cost basis of trucks manufactured in the U.S." https://t.co/l6SoB2YgXQ
Prediction Markets Dismiss Threat as Ship Traffic Falls
"There is no indication that prediction markets took the threat seriously, and indeed the expected number of ships transiting the Strait declined." https://t.co/mVqQk3cj7E https://t.co/334gkFQXkk
Kids Become Caregivers After ICE Separates Families
"Their Parents Were Taken by ICE. The Children Had to Raise One Another." https://t.co/ZuYEH7MxGa https://t.co/cSbNNMk7SB
Manufacturers Flood ISM Surveys with Negative Tariff Criticism
"Since Mr Trump took charge, most of the comments from manufacturers that ISM has published along with its surveys have mentioned tariffs. Not one has been positive. Many of the unpublished ones are more forceful still." https://t.co/CPYmAXhPEP https://t.co/01lBtbBHB6
Tariff Chaos Year Review: Disappointing Results, Shifting Goalposts
Excellent review of our recent, chart-filled @CatoInstitute piece on the last year of US tariff chaos, with some also-excellent additional commentary on tariff fans' goalpost-moving, cherry-picking, & misdirection.
US Data Center Buildout Fueled by Imported Components, Ignoring Tariffs
Pretty good Bloomberg look at the imports powering (pun intended) the US data center buildout, but it omits mention of US tariffs (AD/CVD, 232s, etc) - some dating back more than a decade - on large power transformers, electrical steel,...
Trump's Trade War Threatens Universal Tech Standards
"The global trade war that Donald Trump launched one year ago didn’t just temporarily raise tariffs. It may have also broken the global system that lets technologies like Bluetooth work everywhere." https://t.co/NbTovpYALy
Rising Costs and Bureaucracy Leave Americans Poorer, Growth Stagnant
Our Liberation Day lookback: "Taxes, prices, uncertainty, and bureaucracy climbed, while US manufacturing, FDI, and the trade balance stood still. Exemptions proliferated; lobbying skyrocketed; and most Americans were worse off." https://t.co/9XPW0ZPaZH via @CatoInstitute https://t.co/kyBukF1ymS
Promised Jobs Lag; Most Face Rising Prices
"Those jobs and factories haven’t materialized, at least on the grand scale the president and his top advisers have promised." "Even if... there are some sectors that have positive employment effects, the effect for most people is going to be higher...
Satirical Book Chronicles Year of US Tariff Chaos
In honor of tomorrow's Liberation Day anniversary, I worked with Claude to draft a pretend book about the insane-but-totally-real things that happened over the last year of US "emergency" tariff chaos. Here's the first cut: https://t.co/1srdrUh4Gz
Tariffs Prove Economists Right: Economy Slumps
"Most economists predicted that the economy’s performance would be negatively affected [by the tariffs]. Thus far data overwhelmingly indicate that is what has happened." https://t.co/TXnARw94Md https://t.co/mKF3Gb7Cg2
Trump's Talent Tariff Fails, Costs Rise, Legal Battles
My new Capitolism @thedispatch reviews another poorly-designed Trump tariff that had a chaotic rollout, imposed major economic costs, failed to achieve its objective, & spurred legal challenges. But this one is on foreign talent. "Trump's Other Tariff" https://t.co/8uDH4VwDDJ
Manufacturing Grows Third Month Amid War, Tariff Concerns
"Manufacturing sector expands for third consecutive month, but war, tariffs cause worry" "In the last two months, the prices index has increased 19.3 percentage points to reach its highest level since... June 2022." https://t.co/eKASacTNPS https://t.co/rXk8eLwXeb
Trump's Term Produced 23 of 50 Wildest S&P Days
"Going back five administrations, covering nearly 4,500 trading days, 23 of the top 50 wildest sessions measured by the difference between the intraday high and low in the S&P 500 were during one of Trump’s terms" https://t.co/xZq7AxKtMA https://t.co/xhJQJgXHVY https://t.co/Er8tqPFcLo
Milei's Critics Must Abandon Poverty Metric for Real Gains
When Milei took office in Argentina, critics routinely pointed to the poverty rate as proof he was failing (despite slowing inflation, an improved balance sheet, & stronger growth). Still lots of problems there, ofc, but his critics are gonna need...
Global Trade Thrives Despite US Tariffs, Economy Resilient
"The global economy turns out to be more resilient than we had feared" [ed. note: not all of us] "global trade in goods, the products targeted by the tariffs, has been strikingly robust" "While its direct exports to the US came under...
US‑Israel Iran Conflict Boosts Chinese Exporters’ Global Market Share
Ah, well, nevertheless: "The US and Israel’s war on Iran is expected to help China’s exporters gain global market share from rivals in countries hit harder by high energy prices and supply chain shocks" https://t.co/FzaZnRiklq https://t.co/oA3t3jaaS4
EV Factory Closures Expose U.S. Industrial Policy Failure
Today's @WSJ piece on now-empty US EV supplier factories, billions in EV-related writeoffs & cancelations, & numerous US localities stuck w/ vacant lots & big subsidy bills is a textbook case of US industrial policy uncertainty & failure, unintentionally summed...
Raleigh Beltline Densifies, Inventory Rise Pressures Prices
"Some developers are maximizing available land, especially inside the Raleigh Beltline. They sometimes build two homes on a single lot....[I]nventory is catching up with demand, which is affecting the average sale price" 😲 https://t.co/fi12sk2s80 https://t.co/Bev8IMMjtb
Teen's First Sourdough: Dense Yet Delicious Success
The 13YO has spent a week on her first sourdough loaves, & the results today are impressive. She's upset it's not perfect (she's right - it's a little dense), but it tastes great - esp for a first try. But I...
Adjusted GDP Shows US Economy Moderately Slowing in 2025
Real economists repeatedly cautioned that, bc of tariffs & DOGE (& later the shutdown), topline GDP figures could be distorted due to swings in trade flows & govt activity. So, they recommended excluding those things, and it shows a modestly...
Shippers Doubt Full Hormuz Reopening Amid Ongoing Conflict
"Shippers remain doubtful of a wholesale return to the Strait of Hormuz while it remains beset by conflict, throwing cold water on a Trump administration plan for US-backed insurance and naval escorts to clear passage through the vital waterway." https://t.co/SlR4K6Sl2Z...
Immigration Barely Drives U.S. Labor Productivity Gains
"In this blog post, we ask how much of the evolution in average U.S. labor productivity...can be attributed to changes in the composition of the workforce, with a particular focus on immigration. The short answer: very little." https://t.co/89nFQJzJXe https://t.co/UNZGnsrUqE
Trump’s Illegal Tariffs Bankrupt Firms, Block Billions in Refunds
Infuriating @wsj piece on the total cluster Trump's illegal "emergency" tariffs (& resistance to easy/automatic refunds) have created for US companies owed billions of ill-gotten dollars. Some face bankruptcy; others are giving up on refunds entirely. Theft, plain & simple.
Foreign Central Banks Dump US Treasuries Amid Iran Conflict
"Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war" https://t.co/B4oQiLaXmS "Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive...
January Job Surge Was Cherry‑picked; February Shows Decline
Recently, the January surge in US manufacturing job openings was cited as evidence of US tariff success. Today's JOLTS report shows a significant retreat in February. Alas, the perils of cherrypicking. https://t.co/iGuSwqceO5
Food Distributors Hike Fees as Diesel Prices Surge
"Fresh Food Distributors Add Surcharges as Fuel Costs Rise: Delivering salmon, fruits and other perishable foods has become more expensive as the war with Iran pushes up diesel prices." https://t.co/6WK0ANZ5FM https://t.co/alEhgd4FKd
NC Fans Unfairly Blocked From Baltimore MLB Games
Your annual reminder that it is a grave injustice that millions of people in NC are bizarrely in the Baltimore/DC MLB TV market (and thus totally blocked from watching their MLB teams play in BAL/DC, even when subscribed to the...
Judge Tariffs by President's Promises, Not Hype
Excellent, data-rich thread - and exactly the right way to judge the Liberation Day tariffs (ie, by the President's own standards/promises). THIS is why tariff fans obsess over pre-TACO predictions of Tariff Armageddon & claim "victory" when the worst doesn't...
Buy America Law Stalls Housing, Adds Costly Delays
"A Build America, Buy America law is causing construction delays amid the US housing crisis" 😮 https://t.co/atUt3wR6gr "The waiver process has caused construction delays and hundreds of thousands of dollars in extra costs as the country faces an affordable housing...
Foreign Investment Drops Sharply One Year After Liberation Day
As we approach the 1-year anniversary of "Liberation Day" this week, @sdonnan reports that new foreign investment in the US was actually down significantly last year: https://t.co/s1wGG4RQiu
Asian LNG Buyers Turn to Coal Amid Shipment Cuts
"With a cutoff in shipments imminent, Asian countries, the biggest importers of liquefied natural gas from the Middle East, are already burning more coal and reducing consumption." https://t.co/U74LIL7DHC "the entire concept of L.N.G. being a reliable fuel is undermined," 😔 https://t.co/mYeNrKdiYC
WTO Talks Collapse, Paving Way for Digital Service Tariffs
"WTO reform talks collapse over US-Brazil standoff" https://t.co/mWuUR2PKbn "The failure to extend the moratorium opened the door to countries to impose tariffs on digital services." https://t.co/uEGCJ2r00s
Defense Production Drop Caused One‑Quarter of Manufacturing Job Loss
New @nberpubs: "The Cold War and the U.S. Labor Market" https://t.co/uDe0Mn2o4R "the 1950s-to-1990s decline in defense production explains roughly one-quarter of the decline in manufacturing employment" https://t.co/LjOZhGC7OZ
US Churches Build Housing to Ease Shortage
YIGBY: "Putting the ‘lord’ in ‘landlord’: US churches step up to build housing amid Shortage" https://t.co/dEni2mt4QL https://t.co/nAO87eJOWf
Expensive Plan to Save Steel Plant Sparks Local Outrage
"A costly plan will keep a steel plant in JD Vance’s hometown running. Locals are aghast: ‘It’s horrible’" 🤔 https://t.co/bfrGuaDpW6 https://t.co/pBxxBmFbKI
JBS Beef Division Loses $617M, Up From $37M
GREEDFLATION? "JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, reported a $617 million adjusted operating loss for its beef business over the past year. A year earlier, the loss was $37 million." https://t.co/0kC8Fa6JhE https://t.co/yOxDcuW5oa
Inflation Fears Undermine Bonds' Traditional Safe‑Haven Appeal
"bonds—often a place of safety in times of market turmoil—have offered no relief, hit by worries that resurgent inflation will keep interest rates higher than expected and undermine the value of their fixed payouts." https://t.co/acyJLqVIXP https://t.co/7yOQbeNrn2
Nestlé Reports 413,793 KitKat Bars Vanished, Truck Missing
"Nestlé says roughly 413,793 [KitKat] bars went missing after leaving a production facility in central Italy, with the truck still not found" https://t.co/rFkTvqrolc
Hail Mary Feels Like
PROJECT HAIL MARY was very good. Like CASTAWAY in space, but with a super-smart rockdog instead of a volleyball. Ryan Gosling has a future in Hollywood, IMO. 3.5/4
Trump Biofuels Bailout Hikes Gas, Food Prices, Harms Environment
The Trump administration's new biofuels bailout means higher US gas and food prices and worse environmental outcomes. But at least farmers will get another $3-4B from the government. https://t.co/OCutylNA8t
Company Hides Furnace Restart Cost, Estimated at $30 Million
"The company also did not disclose how much it spent to restart the second furnace in Granite City. McKey estimated it could be around $30 million." https://t.co/4fNwGyi7aw https://t.co/SrSjAIYZ4c
Americans Prioritize Lower Costs, Taxes, and More Space
"The shift points to what many Americans now want most: lower living costs, lower taxes, more space and a better quality of life." https://t.co/ShzrJpiK99 https://t.co/hkruQM87W9
Why Tiger Still Doesn't Own a Personal Waymo
Why doesn't Tiger have his own personal Waymo at this point? Who'd be against this?
Iran War Threatens Global Fertilizer Supply, Endangers Food Security
The Iran war has crippled Middle East production/shipments of fertilitizer and upstream inputs, threatening global food supplies. That could be bad for rich countries - and disastrous for poor ones. https://t.co/YLuPd0NrWM https://t.co/FPLfLjAOYy
Chemicals Firms Hike Prices Amid War-Driven Inflation Shock
"Chemicals companies on the front lines of the inflationary shock are aggressively raising prices on disruptions from the four-week-old war... The price increases are already kicking off a chain reaction." https://t.co/E16JDzEqwM https://t.co/Ttbur0ru2f