US LNG Can't Quickly Replace Lost Qatari Cargoes
"There is little US LNG producers can do to immediately replace lost Qatari cargoes" https://t.co/ZAZe4MzpoI "American export plants are running nearly full tilt with most cargoes locked into long‑term contracts." https://t.co/3nYYZwRyaA
Arbiter's “Neutral” Review Simply Rehashes Old Tariffs
After a totally fair and neutral arbiter completes its not-at-all-reverse-engineered investigation and calculates totally unrigged tariff recommendations that just so happen to match the previous ones
California Regulations Block New Semiconductor, Battery, Steel Plants
"Banned in California" https://t.co/fqcEbwqWML? "The regulatory environment makes it effectively impossible to build new semiconductor fabs, automotive paint shops, battery gigafactories, or steel foundries." https://t.co/IWKL3dFowf
Tariffs Drive U.S. Equipment Production Overseas, Cutting Jobs
"Tariffs Force Down Heavy Equipment Sales and Jobs" https://t.co/gAxfFeOvbe "it is more economical to build a forklift overseas, import it and pay the tariff" "multiple layers of tariffs on inputs have made it even more expensive to build machinery on American soil"...
Court Blocks Government Delay, Secures Taxpayer Refunds
As a taxpayer, I greatly appreciate the speed with which the CAFC handled this proceeding and rejected the administration's baseless stalling tactics. Every day that IEEPA tariff refunds aren't paid will cost American taxpayers millions.
IEEPA Refund Delays Cost Taxpayers $700 Million Monthly
Friday, the Trump administration began stalling IEEPA tariff refunds in court. In a new @CatoInstitute blog post, we review US regs on customs duty refunds & find that IEEPA delays will cost taxpayers ~$700M/month (~$23M/day) in additional interest payments owed...
US Manufacturing Grows, Input Costs Surge to 2022 Levels
"US manufacturing expanded in February but input prices soared at the fastest pace since 2022, stoking fears of an inflation resurgence even before this weekend’s attacks on Iran." https://t.co/eB5YwfWkhb https://t.co/qeDvw5frvv
Small Business Owner Refunds Unlawful Tariffs, Calls Out White House
"This small business owner is already giving her customers a tariff refund" https://t.co/958bIzS0SL "if somebody charges you something and it's unlawful, they should give you your money back" Cc: The White House https://t.co/82Lv6OPwJw
Industrial Policy: Faith Over Coherent Strategy in Unknown Territory
"The Incoherence of Modest Industrial Policy" https://t.co/FC72XUqs6v "If policymakers admit they are operating in unknown territory, then the idea that they can steer society in a coherent direction becomes less a policy strategy and more an article of faith." https://t.co/pTa6RJfJnQ
Trump Admin Loses Courts, Stalls Billion‑dollar Refunds
The Trump administration collected billions in IEEPA tariff money from US companies. They LOST in 3 different courts, including SCOTUS. And now they're trying to stall refunds. I wish I could say I was surprised. 🙄
This Exchange Will Define IEEPA Tariff History
When we write the definitive history of IEEPA tariffs, this exchange - and what it represents - should get its own chapter.
Tariff Refunds Spark Unexpected Market Reaction
I run a family account that is very light on profanity, but I'm making an exception here because this is highly relevant re: policy - i.e., the market response to tariff refunds - and is also kinda funny https://t.co/W4w9escVzV https://t.co/5sIpIX72ON
Core Wholesale Prices Jump 0.8% in January, Outpacing Forecasts
"Core wholesale prices rose 0.8% in January, much more than expected" https://t.co/LVa2AuC787 "For the full year, core wholesale prices accelerated 3.6%" Big Jan26 drivers: -professional & commercial equipment wholesaling services -Trade services -metals https://t.co/SIuJIRE7bD
Thin Retail Margins Force Sellers to Pass Tariffs
"Many sellers simply don’t have much of a choice but to pass on the cost of tariffs. 'At a certain point—because retail is, as you know, a mid-single digit operating margin business—if people’s costs go up by 10%, there aren’t...
Trump Trade Anger Boosts Canadian Domestic Spending and Tourism
Trade is among people, and retaliation can be too: "Anger over President Trump’s trade policy has fueled a notable increase in Canadian spending on domestic products and local tourism, according to research from the Bank of Canada." https://t.co/Nmzo5Yn2ay
Post‑July Tariff Uncertainty May Stall Business Investments
"Meanwhile, new questions about what the tariff regime will look like after July, when Trump’s new global duties expire, could again put many business investments on hold, limiting the productive effect of any more immediate influx of cash." https://t.co/PeFBYyWQqH https://t.co/0oVZHlSMF9
Supreme Court Likely Blocks Refunds of Illegal Tariff Payments
NEW from me & @CatoInstitute colleagues, a deep-dive primer on IEEPA tariff refunds and what probably (unfortunately) comes next: "Sore Losers at the Supreme Court: The Government Doesn’t Want to Pay Back Unlawful Tariff Money After All" https://t.co/jHI5Jkd11d https://t.co/0mURjfiJNt
Protectionism Took a Century to Cripple U.S. Shipbuilding
Trust the process, Dominic. These things take time. I mean, it took almost a CENTURY for protectionism to destroy the US shipbuilding industry. 😏
Traders Profit From Tariff Refund Chaos as Giants Wait
"Wall Street Traders Are Pouncing on the Tariff Refund Chaos" https://t.co/im6M532qdH "The biggest companies, meanwhile, can foot the legal bills and will be more likely to wait for big payouts." https://t.co/l0NCZUu5ko
Indonesia Likely to Miss US Farm Import Commitments
"Indonesia may struggle to deliver on new US farm import promises, traders say" 😲 https://t.co/EJEVp0S8sc
Undoing Theft Is Hard, yet Still Unjustifiable
"It’s hard to undo almost a year’s worth of theft, but that doesn’t make theft permissible." 🔥 https://t.co/AiOvVFnwCJ https://t.co/S2CR1IBtrL
Tariff Hikes Boost Inflation Expectations, Curb Durable Purchases
New @ClevFedResearch paper finds US tariff hikes & tariff uncertainty increase consumers' inflation expectations, while uncertainty "strongly discourage[s] consumers from buying durables, especially cars and big-ticket items." https://t.co/IhbQU2Pc4M https://t.co/6C1XUPmqch
Even Dissenting Judges Agree Section 122 Inapplicable Today
"Even the dissenting judges on the Court of Appeals who upheld the [IEEPA] tariffs found Section 122 doesn’t apply to current international circumstances" https://t.co/nWGSiYpBLN https://t.co/RgrI9hEpxx
US Policies Amplify Global Inflation Beyond Shared Goods
"How U.S.-Centric is the Inflation Problem?" https://t.co/536nv3SjWg "whatever common elements are shared by globally traded consumer and business goods have been augmented by country-specific decisions in the United States, Germany, and Canada." https://t.co/QflnhV9CDt
Treasury Secretary Admits Tariffs Pretext, Investigations Reverse‑engineered
Also, it's nice to see the Treasury Secretary openly admit the new Section 301 investigations will be reverse-engineered to justify new tariffs. Not even a hint that the investigation might go negative. It's all just a pretext. https://t.co/HDwm3f4gpE https://t.co/U1olE8kLdE
Bessent Hints at IEEPA Tariff Refunds, Slams FedEx CEO
Maybe a small bit of good news in Bessent's latest comments on IEEPA tariff refunds (along with a pathetic smear of FedEx's CEO) https://t.co/fhxh3BfgSM https://t.co/TscpCKYG6i https://t.co/9s3Wfx6jGn
Tariffs Boost Steel Jobs, Undermine U.S. Manufacturing
"Trump’s Tariffs Are Adding Steel Mill Jobs, and Crushing American Factories" https://t.co/EdQKmnKPzv You guys will never believe this, but heavily taxing a vital manufacturing input isn't good for manufacturing. https://t.co/6IRvgAXzPH
Section 122 Tariffs Reduced to 10% From 15%
Section 122 tariffs now being collected at 10%, not Trump's weekend 15%. Clearly, a well-oiled tariff machine here. 🤷🤷 https://t.co/5MjbcrZuXD https://t.co/jb72H2AZQ8
Livestock Insurance Subsidy Harvest Costs More Than Direct Payments
New @nberpubs: "A Theory of Subsidy Harvesting in Livestock Price Insurance" https://t.co/a2BTA7aoME "The subsidy harvest is a pure rent and costlier than a direct payment because it requires administrative oversight and federally-subsidized delivery" https://t.co/gmAA7SjVyG
Local Content Rules Halve EV Subsidy Effectiveness
New @nberpubs: "Industrial Policies for Multi-Stage Production: The Battle for Battery-Powered Vehicles" https://t.co/DX6XB7e1R0 "local content requirements... drive up costs and reduce subsidy uptake, undoing more than half of the EV adoption stimulus coming from pure buyer subsidies" 😲
Tariffs Inflate Prices and Act Like Hidden Corporate Tax
A) Many studies have examined whether tariffs have been passed through to consumer prices, and they've found significant retail price increases B) Tariff burdens absorbed by US companies are an inefficient corporate tax, paid by Americans via lower wages or share...
Tariffs Fail: US Down to Five Aluminum Smelters
"U.S. import tariffs haven't been enough to stop the United States losing another aluminium smelter, leaving the country with just five primary metal production plants." 😲 https://t.co/T5U4nxglb0 https://t.co/EOQY3OwzE6
Chevron Boosts Permian Output 67% with Fewer Rigs
"Chevron in 2019 ran 21 rigs and five frack crews in the Permian. This year it anticipates it will need only six rigs and two frack crews to produce about 67% more oil-and-gas in the region than seven years ago."...
Ford Pays Millions in Tariffs After Supplier Fire
"Tariffs, supplier fire continue to batter Ford" https://t.co/3FKQwD9ycE That Ford is having to pay millions in aluminum tariffs simply bc its domestic supplier caught fire is one of the better/stupider examples of US tariff policy today: https://t.co/eOL1o1zgXf
India's Solar Overproduction Turns Boom Into Glut
Industrial policy, again: "India’s Solar Manufacturing Excesses Turn a Boom Into a Glut" https://t.co/VEeIUwYmoM https://t.co/r4CohxBgDI
Companies Resume Price Hikes After Tariff Surge
"The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again." "Such new price increases follow last year’s wave of tariff-driven price hikes" https://t.co/onoN6WYPHy https://t.co/OjVUbYFXnM
Cargill Shuts Milwaukee Plant, 221 Jobs Lost Amid Herd Slump
"Cargill to Close Milwaukee Beef Facility, Cutting 221 Jobs on Herd Decline" https://t.co/R3enSgd7lj "An industry turnaround isn’t expected soon, as there are few signs of a much-anticipated rebuilding of US herds." 😬
Trump Admin Eyes Tariff Cuts, Citing Price Hikes, Complexity
BOMBSHELL @FT scoop: Trump admin mulls cutting steel/aluminum tariffs bc these taxes 1) raise US prices; 2) are insanely complicated; 3) had other unintented consequences (incl lobbying). They're admitting, in other words, that gravity exists. Good. https://t.co/o4RkfMWxlF
US Midwest Aluminum Premium Hits Record $1.03 per Pound
"Aluminum prices in the US have been rising faster than global prices for much of this past year because of tariffs. The so-called US Midwest premium...climbed to an all-time high of $1.03 a pound on Wednesday" https://t.co/lVUj91ooyh https://t.co/lIKmsxcJem
Import Prices Rise Slightly, Showing Tariffs Not Absorbed
Another month of US import price data shows - again - that foreigners aren't broadly eating Trump's tariffs (bc if they were, prices would have collapsed this year - instead they're up slightly) https://t.co/Dwv9hRwxO1 https://t.co/pF66RuUWjN