Mexico's Inflation Aligns with Hanke's Golden Money Growth
Mexico’s inflation is 3.8%/yr. Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 9.2%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/jQ05GUvmPW
Kuwait's Forced Oil Shutdown Deepens Economic Crisis
Adding to Kuwait's economic misery, it has just been forced to shut down its oil production. Since the Global Financial Crisis, Kuwait's economy has tanked. Turkey's has boomed. And contrary to WESTERN PROPAGANDA, Iran's did not collapse, prior to the US-Israeli...
Buy‑the‑dip Mindset May Fail After Latest Shock
Following geopolitical shocks, investors have been conditioned to buy the dip. THIS TIME THEY MIGHT BE WRONG. https://t.co/rbiIiiZSzE
Bessent Likely to Lift Sanctions on Russian Oil
To avoid further panic in the oil markets, I anticipate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be forced to "unsanction" more Russian oil trapped in the sanctioned shadow fleet next week. SANCTIONS CREATE NOTHING BUT TROUBLE. IT'S TIME FOR BESSENT...
Foreign Investors Boost US Assets 31% in 2025
Despite what you read daily in the press, the de-dollarization narrative doesn’t have legs. In 2025, overseas investors bought a net $1.55 trillion in long term US financial assets. That’s UP 31.4% since 2024. https://t.co/NUFKLfdh4l
US Waives Penalty Tariffs, India Keeps Strategic Ambiguity
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK
Bolivia's Inflation Soars to 19.6%, Dollarization Needed
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Trump's Disapproval Soars on Cost of Living, Tariffs
In the latest Fox News poll TRUMP IS TANKING. His disapproval rating on the cost of living is 67% and 63% disapprove of his tariff policies. THE TARIFF MAN = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/cPG2lx1syb
Indonesia Halts Board of Peace Talks, Calls End Iran War
Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim nation, with a Muslim population of over 240 million, has suspended all discussions on the proposed Board of Peace. Leading Indonesian Muslim groups have called for an exit from the Board and an end to the...
Gas Prices Rise 27 Cents, War Hits Wallet
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
China Halts Fuel Exports as Oil Shock Spikes Prices
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...
Gulf Nations Reassess US Deals Amid Israel‑Iran Conflict
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar are reviewing US contracts and future investment commitments. The US-Israeli war on Iran is putting investments at risk. WAR = COLLATERAL DAMAGE AND COSTS. https://t.co/YXzBzPwL7O
War Costs Explode: Iraq $8 Trillion, Iran Ahead
Remember the Iraq war? It was supposed to be a cake walk that would cost US taxpayers a mere $50 billion. IT ACTUALLY COST $8 TRILLION. The US taxpayer will face sticker shock when the bill for America’s war against Iran arrives. WARS...
Iran Conflict May Prompt US to Lift Russian Oil Sanctions
My friend & oil expert Javier Blas reports just what I’ve been anticipating: that the US-Israeli war on Iran would force the US to lift sanctions on Russian oil. https://t.co/4VIvPSwm63
78% Fear Inflation, Making Affordability Crisis Trump’s Weakness
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, 78% of Americans say inflation is a very big concern for them personally. AFFORDABILITY = GOING TO GET WORSE = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/z3qgrkZ7V2
RBI Dollar Sales Trigger Rupee's Biggest Asian Surge
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: After the rupee hit a record low, India’s central bank sold dollars. Then, the Rupee SURGED, with the biggest gain in Asia today. https://t.co/rzGC4rj8Kv
Sudan's Pound Plummets 28%, Ranks 6th Worst Globally
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Sudanese pound ranks as the WORLD'S 6TH WORST CURRENCY. The pound has depreciated by 28% over the past year. https://t.co/6WS2fKoH6r
Erdoğan Faces US‑backed Kurdish Arms Amid PKK Talks
While the CIA arms Iranian Kurds in Iraq, Turkey is in the middle of disarmament talks with the PKK. I wonder what Erdoğan thinks about the latest US entanglement with the Kurds? https://t.co/iaq2Xp2XeS
64% Americans Oppose Tariffs, View Them as Sales Tax
My views on Trump’s tariffs and the tariff man himself: “The public is fed up with these tariffs. 64% of the American public is thumbs down on tariffs. Politically, they're not popular, and the reason is that they're sales taxes on...
US Drone Strikes in Iran Kill 742 Civilians
Yesterday, the US military bombed drone sites across Iran. According to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, 742 civilians, including 176 children, have been killed in the bombings since Saturday. https://t.co/OYnTObNhC0
Swiss Inflation Low, Money Supply Growth On Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate at 0.03%/yr is at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0-2%. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) is within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr at 5.3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/wDVH5hwQyz
Majority Demand Congressional Approval Before Trump Acts on Iran
According to a CNN poll, 62% of U.S. adults say that Trump should obtain congressional approval before any further military action in Iran. THE PUBLIC IS TURNING ON THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/4jYyZSLJ7C
Iran Likely to Shut Hormuz Strait, Threatening Global Oil Supply
According to @Polymarket, there is a 67% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31. The probability has SOARED in the last few hours. 20% OF THE WORLD’S OIL, AND ~40% OF CHINA’S OIL, FLOWS THROUGH THE...
Venezuela Leads, Five Nations Face Hyperinflation
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, as of March 1st, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 656.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 107.8%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 84.6%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 63.8%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 50.0%/yr https://t.co/FrHE7rOpRu
Iran's Inflation Hits 87.2%, World’s Third‑Highest Rate
#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 87.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/Ur4qSrFxia
Iran Conflict Spurs Gas Prices Near $3.5 Threshold
My friend and renowned oil expert Javier Blas has it right. ONE OF THE COSTS OF THE NETANYAHU-TRUMP WAR ON IRAN = A GAS PRICE SURGE. https://t.co/cnsDUpCpbY
Hormuz Traffic Plummets, 150 Tankers Stranded, Oil Halted
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is running 70% below normal. Roughly 150 tankers are stranded in the Strait. If that’s not bad enough, the IRGC adviser, Sardar Jabari, stated, “Not a single drop of oil will leave the region.” https://t.co/A4WO3ah53J
Trump Refuses Refunds After Supreme Court Deems Tariffs Unlawful
After Trump’s tariffs were ruled unlawful by the US Supreme Court, he is now dragging his feet and refusing to refund Americans who were illegally TAXED by tariffs. https://t.co/vlXQUbwjEo
Iran Regime Fall 48% Likely, History Shows Failure
According to @Polymarket, there is a 48% chance that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027. Trump is engaged in a risky operation. THE HISTORY OF REGIME CHANGES = FAILURE. https://t.co/xdpgxVS4Gd
Oil Market Stays Calm Despite Ras Tanura Strike
Despite the strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, Aramco’s Ras Tanura facility, the oil market remained relatively calm throughout the day. Stay tuned. https://t.co/HzbD8gLZNn
France Revives Nuclear Buildup, Sparking Arms Race Fears
For the first time since 1992, France will expand its nuclear weapons arsenal. Why expand? France already has the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, following Russia, the US and China. THE LAST THING WE NEED IS ANOTHER ARMS RACE. https://t.co/khuyfhNe9A
US‑Israeli Iran Strike Threatens President’s MAGA Support
In his latest Greed & Fear FLASH, my good friend Chris Wood wrote: "The US-Israeli attack on Iran... [is] extremely risky politically for the US president, most particularly as his MAGA base is against overseas wars." https://t.co/MyysVy5Ukr
Brent Crude Jumps 7% Amid War‑Driven Price Surge
On the opening of the Intercontinental Exchange Market in London, BRENT CRUDE SURGED. Since the close on Friday, it's up over 7%, trading at $78 / barrel. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER OIL PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/H6nboenO4u
King Dollar Not Dead; China Still Buying Dollars
Talk of the death of King Dollar is premature. Exhibit #1: China. It runs a large current account surplus, and is accumulating a mountain of predominately dollar-denominated foreign assets at record rates. Those who YAK about DE-DOLLARIZATION should start to FOLLOW THE...
China, Russia Poised to Bolster Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on Chinese and Russian support for Iran: “[China and Russia] may send additional naval assets to assist Iran in closing the Strait of Hormuz. They are continuing to supply intelligence … and critical minerals that Iran...
Foreign Investors Pour $1.55 Trillion Into USD, Defying “Sell America” Myths
Foreign investors poured a net $1.55 TRILLION into USD assets last year, up 31.4% from 2024. The oft repeated “Sell America” and “End of King Dollar” narratives don’t align with the facts. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the...
Erdoğan Blames Netanyahu for US‑Israeli Strikes, Calls Ceasefire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan said Netanyahu’s “provocations” triggered the US–Israeli strikes on Iran. Erdoğan said that Israel is “poisoning the process,” and urged an immediate ceasefire to prevent a wider regional war. https://t.co/y2YtJLqeUy
India Hedges Bets, Deepens Ties with EU, Japan, Brazil, Canada
By deepening ties with the EU, Japan, Brazil, and Canada, India is WISELY HEDGING ITS GEOPOLITICAL BETS. STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY PREVAILS AGAIN. https://t.co/TfGLoGF8lA
71% Blame Trump Tariffs for Higher Prices, War Distracts
Americans have SOURED on Pres. Trump. According to the latest Economist poll, 71% of Americans say that Trump’s tariffs increased the price they paid for goods and services. TO DISTRACT AMERICANS, TRUMP HAS JUST STARTED A WAR. https://t.co/WAh0999SVq
Thailand's Deflation Linked to Sub‑Golden Money Supply Growth
Thailand's January CPI is -0.6%/yr. That's the 10th consecutive month in DEFLATION. In the past 3 years, its Money Supply has grown BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 5.4-7.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting a 1-3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY...
Brazil's Oversized Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.6%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Supply Lags
The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2%/yr target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...
Jeff Sachs: US Has Just Stepped Into Trouble over Iran
Distinguished Columbia Prof. Jeff Sachs on the US strikes on Iran: “The U.S. has stepped into shit today, if I could put it bluntly.” https://t.co/TcqwrdIyD9
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' IS AN UNDERSTATEMENT. https://t.co/EISjbPXLJq
Bank Credit Surge Signals Inflation Pressure Ahead
The growth rate in U.S. commercial bank credit has been steadily picking up. On Feb. 18th it was 6.7%/yr. When it comes to the money supply, commercial banks are the elephant in the room. They produce 80% of M2. THE US INFLATION GENIE...
Iranian Drone Strike Hits Near Dubai's Burj Khalifa, Evacuations Ordered
Following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, an Iranian counter-attack launched a drone strike close to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE. The Burj Khalifa has been evacuated. https://t.co/zrHYb8kfrf
Turkey's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI is 30.7%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Turkey's money supply (M3) is growing at 40.9%/yr. That is well above Hanke's Golden Growth of 12.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey's inflation target of 5.0%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/rvnlCC3318
Germany's Factories Run Below Average Amid Green Sanctions Pressure
Germany’s manufacturing capacity utilization is only running at 77.5% in January. Its long-term average since 1991 is 83.2%. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ARE A DEADLY ONE - TWO PUNCH. https://t.co/S87Xs4GTJY
Egypt's Oversized Money Growth Fuels 12% Inflation
Egypt's inflation rate is 11.9%/yr. Egypt's money supply (M3) is growing at 20.6%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range from 11.1%/yr- 15.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target range of 3%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY...
India Poised to Gain From U.S. Tariff Shift
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just discussed tariff policy in New Delhi. After SCOTUS struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, India stands to be one of the BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES. INDIA = PLAYING THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/ywtbcs3yl1