Trump's $1.5T Defense Push Endangers Social Security
My take on the affect of Trump's push for higher defense spending in @FortuneMagazine: “Once you push defense to $1.5 trillion, that puts Social Security on even shakier ground." https://t.co/feois7TZug
Ukrainian Drones Torch Russia's Key Novorossiysk Oil Hub
Today, Ukrainian drone strikes SET FIRE to Russia’s major oil export terminals in Novorossiysk. The port handles over half of Russia’s crude and petroleum product shipments. YOU DON'T WANT TO BE SHORT OIL. https://t.co/XlgmcpVhsH
War May End, but Oil Supply Disruptions Linger
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, even if the US-ISRAELI war on Iran ends soon, the damage to supply chains has been done. Oil flows will be disrupted for months or years. https://t.co/SxmxwhkvAY
Explosives Discovered Near Balkan Stream Pipeline, Ukraine Suspected
Serbian police found explosives near the Balkan Stream gas pipeline. It supplies Serbia and Hungary with gas from Russia. PRIME SUSPECT = UKRAINE. Stay tuned. https://t.co/AHjq0mZhzB
Trump Frames Federal Budget as Plowshares‑to‑swords
My take on Trump's view of the US federal budget in @FortuneMagazine: "It's a classic plowshares into swords." https://t.co/feois7TZug
U.S. Drivers Spent $8.4 B Extra on Gas
American drivers have paid an additional $8.4 BILLION in fuel costs since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. The cost of regular gas has JUMPED from $2.80 to $4.11 per gallon since January 11. AMERICANS DRIVERS SHOULD SEND A BILL...
India's Exports Pivot: Services Up, Textiles/Agriculture Down
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s export mix has been REWRITTEN in the past 30 years. Services SURGED from 17% in 1995 to 45% in 2023. In the meantime, as a share of total exports, textiles and agriculture COLLAPSED. https://t.co/rjJl7fH9a0
India’s Foreign Policy: Hedge, De‑risk, Diversify for Long‑term Stability
S. Jaishankar, India's Minister of External Affairs on the importance of hedging: “Hedge, de-risk, diversify is how India navigates a fractured world.” STRATEGY OVER NOISE. INDIA PLAYS THE LONG GAME. https://t.co/Y303y6Dl2Q
Trump's $1.5 T Defense Request Dwarfs Multiple National Economies
Trump's $1.5T military budget request is MASSIVE. $1.5T is larger than the entire economies of Saudi Arabia, the Netherlands, & Türkiye. It’s almost the entire size of Indonesia’s economy & roughly HALF the size of France's entire economy. TRUMP = PLOWSHARES INTO SWORDS....
Asia Faces Fuel Squeeze as Reserves Dip to 30 Days
Asian countries (excluding China) only hold 30 days of fuel in reserve. If that isn't bad enough, they rely heavily on oil shipments from the Persian Gulf. IN THE COMING DAYS, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SQUEEZE AND HIGHER PRICES...
U.S. Policies May Have Accelerated Iran’s Nuclear Program
My friend and Johns Hopkins colleague Vali Nasr on Iranian nuclear proliferation: “Rather than preventing [Iranian] nuclear proliferation, the US may have actually accelerated it — and has no way of stopping it.” https://t.co/UctRpvmg1s
India Ranks 4th in GDP, 126th per Capita
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India boasts the WORLD'S 4th largest GDP. But, when it comes to income per person, India comes in at a lowly 126th in the world. https://t.co/YKTgg6cZcJ
Iran Remains Resolute, Refuses to Surrender Amid Suffering
My friend and Johns Hopkins colleague Vali Nasr on Iran's resistance: “Iran is determined not to be bullied into surrender… it doesn’t make sense for them to throw in the towel after all this suffering.” https://t.co/bdMuRVAZmJ
Tariffs and Middle East Conflict Drive Aluminum Prices Sky‑High
Aluminum prices are up over 83% YoY. First, Trump’s tariffs strained supply. Now war in Iran is cutting Gulf imports that supply 20% of US aluminum imports. TRUMP’S TARIFFS + TRUMP’S WAR = A BIG BILL FOR AMERICANS. https://t.co/M0EPxDjZSN
RBI Bans Rupee Shorting Tools, but Impact Doubtful
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is stepping in to try to slow the rupee’s slide. By restricting derivatives and other tools traders use to SHORT the rupee, the RBI is trying to suppress bets AGAINST the currency. THE RBI'S ENGAGED...
US‑Iran Ceasefire Odds Remain Under 50% Through June
According to Polymarket, there is only an 18% chance of a US–Iran ceasefire by the end of April. There is only a 47% chance of a ceasefire by the end of June. TRUMP = FOREVER WAR = ANTI-MAGA. https://t.co/ZaFmL9ud2V
Trump’s “No Wars” Claim Clashes with $1.5 T Budget
My take on Trump's DoD budget in @FortuneMagazine: "MAGA was told an untruth by Trump—no foreign wars, no adventurism. Now the US DoD budget has come in at $1T, and he wants $1.5T. This is a massive militarization—completely the opposite of...
Israel's Overextension Threatens Its Military Viability
Distinguished Harvard Prof. Stephen Walt on Israel's Achilles heel: "Israel has been fighting in Lebanon, Gaza, Syria... [and] now... against Iran... This is a small country... trying to exercise hegemony over a vast region... [and] it's gradually wearing out its own...
Asian Nations Revert to Coal as LNG Prices Soar
Asian economies are abandoning Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) and PIVOTING BACK to coal. Since Feb. 28, the FT reports gas prices are up 60%, while coal prices are only up by 17%. https://t.co/FefK5JR7MN
Mearsheimer: Trump's Advisers Prioritize Israel over Iran Peace
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Trump's foreign emissaries: "Trump's principal advisers are both ardent Zionists. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are deeply committed to Israel. They were not interested in working out a deal with the Iranians to avoid a...
Trump’s Bold Claims Ignored by Iran’s Actual Strike
Just a few weeks before a US aircraft was shot down in Iran, President Trump had this to say: “We literally have planes flying over Tehran... They [Iran] can't do a thing about it." TRUMP'S RHETORIC RARLEY MATCHES REALITY. https://t.co/UVqGJAzX2e
Trump Misreads Oil Markets: Global Pricing Overrides Independence
Trump thinks US energy independence protects Americans from Gulf shocks. But he FAILS TO SEE that global markets are pricing all barrels the same. TRUMP = CLEARLY DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THE MARKETS FOR OIL. https://t.co/tp5LhHAisM
Trump’s Defense Boost Should Cut DoD Waste, Not Spending
To fund the increase in the defense budget from $1.1T to $1.5T, Trump proposes to reduce discretionary spending by 10%. Instead of increasing the DoD’s budget by $400B, Trump should’ve cut the budget of the home of waste, fraud, & abuse,...
India’s First Census in 15 Years Adds Caste Data
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India launches its first census in 15+ years. It will include caste data for the first time in nearly a century. THE GRANULAR DETAIL OF THE DEMOGRAPHICS OF THE WORLD’S MOST POPULOUS NATION WILL BE EDIFYING. Stay tuned. https://t.co/DL2ZRYi9sW
Pakistan's Fuel Prices Surge Amid US‑Israeli Iran Conflict
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, Pakistan is entering TROUBLED ECONOMIC WATERS. The price per litre of petrol is up 42.7% and diesel 54.9%. PAK = SHOULD SEND THE BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/iSttCgOOSF
Money Supply Growth Matches Target Inflation Range
Australia's consumer price inflation is 3.7%/yr. Australia's broad money supply grew at 7.4%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3-8.3%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Australia's target inflation rate of 2-3%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/aYQzJ8foVn
Media Overlooked Revised February Job Loss Spike
In reporting the good jobs numbers for March, the media failed to pick up on the fact that the job losses in February were revised UP from 92,000 lost jobs to 133,000 lost jobs. https://t.co/haZXRUFU55
US Intel: Half of Iran's Missiles Remain Operational
CNN reports that recent US intelligence found that ~50% of Iran’s missile launchers and drones are still INTACT. Trump’s rhetoric has NOTHING TO DO WITH REALITY. https://t.co/2Im0pnj9EW
Trump's Tariffs Accelerated US Manufacturing Job Losses
A year ago, Trump proclaimed that “Liberation Day” would be "the day American industry was reborn." Thanks to Trump's tariffs, US manufacturing job losses accelerated, shedding 108,000 jobs in 2025. TARIFF MAN = HOW TO DESTROY AMERICA'S MANUFACTURING JOBS. https://t.co/3jvtsqZiBh
White House Simplifies Tariffs, but 50% Rates Stay Punitive
After months of lobbying by companies that were unfairly hit by tariffs, the White House consolidated and simplified metals tariffs. But, tariffs remain SKY-HIGH at 50% on steel, aluminum, and copper. The admin's changes were only window dressing. Tariff rates remain punitive....
Half Global Sulfur Flows Through Hormuz, Fueling Industry
John Dizard nailed this one in The Institutional Risk Analyst w/ @rcwhalen: "Most, around half, of sulfur in the world goes through the Strait of Hormuz. You need sulfuric acid in order to produce copper, steel, nickel...you really need it to...
US Regime Change Attempts Mostly Fail, Often Disastrous
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on regime changes: "Regime changes very rarely work... There have been about 70 regime change attempts by the US since WWII, & almost none have resulted in successful regime changes. The ones that ‘worked’ ended up in complete...
Trump Speech Triggers Brent Crude Jump, Prediction Proven
After Trump’s speech on Wednesday night, the price of brent crude futures jumped from below $100 to around $108. On Wednesday, that’s exactly what I told @MarioNawfal what oil would do. https://t.co/CbkZMrjXlx
Trump Pushes Higher Defense Spending Amid Slowing Growth
During the Clinton reign (1993-2001), US defense spending fell from 4.3% to 2.9% of GDP - while GDP SOARED at 4.0%/year. As the economy slumps to 2.1%/yr GDP growth, Trump proposes to increase the defense budget from ~3.0% to 5.0% of...
Egypt's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Excessive Money Supply Growth
Egypt’s inflation rate is 13.4%/yr. That’s above its inflation target of 3-7%/yr. Egypt’s money supply just came in at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Iran's Oil Revenues Surge Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Iran's free cash flow benefits from the US-Israeli war on Iran: "Who's benefited economically from the war? It's Iran. Because they're exporting more oil than they were before. The price is a lot higher & the...
Trump Winging War Strategy, Lacks Any Real Plan
I spoke with @MarioNawfal on Trump’s ’thinking’ & ‘plan’ for the US-Israeli War on Iran: "I don't think they have a plan. I don't think they know what the word PLAN is... Trump is winging it basically... He's fishing around for...
Trump's Exaggerated Claim: Iran's Forces Far From Destroyed
Trump said, "[Iran's] navy is gone. Their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten." Typical -- Trump's rhetoric doesn't match reality. https://t.co/Tu24oA8RNH
White House Pushes $1.5T Defense Budget Amid Audit Void
The White House asked Congress to approve a MASSIVE INCREASE in military funding from $1.1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in FY 2027. Forget MAGA promises. Trump embraces one big idea: MILITARISM/WAR. The DoD is a home of WASTE, FRAUD, & ABUSE. No...
March Adds 178K Jobs, Double Forecast, Rivals 2025 Total
US employers added 178,000 jobs in March. This was over twice as high as the consensus of 60,000. For context, jobs added in March nearly matched the yearly total for all of 2025, when only 181,000 jobs were added. https://t.co/HhjdreSvui
Germany Expands BND Authority, Edging Toward Police State
The Economist reports that Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is set to gain new sweeping powers from the German Cabinet. GERMANY = THE POLICE STATE IS BEING ELEVATED INTO THE IDEAL POLITY. https://t.co/guv72FTRYD
Venezuela's Inflation Remains World's Highest at 548%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 548.6%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. https://t.co/x1zOmOWtIF
Trump’s “Strongest Economy” Claim Clashes with Modest Growth
Trump says he built the "strongest economy in history". TRUMP = HASN’T LOOKED AT THE DATA. USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2024 = 2.8%/yr USA REAL GDP GROWTH 2025 = 2.1%/yr. https://t.co/ZEBSTs32ra
Trump’s Absurd Oil Advice Reveals Twisted Pretzel Logic
Trump's "advice" to nations that are suffering from the US-Israeli war of choice that closed the Strait of Hormuz: "Build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait and just take [the oil]. Iran has been decimated... so it should...
Trump Boasts Rapid US Takeover of Venezuela, Sparks Criticism
Trump on the US capture of Venezuela in his address to the nation: "American troops took the country of Venezuela in a matter of minutes...it was quick, lethal, violent & respected by everyone all over the world.” IS THIS REALLY WORTH THE...
61% of Americans Anticipate Recession Within Year
The latest Ipsos Consumer Tracker finds that 61% of Americans expect a recession within the next 12 months. While recession storm clouds are gathering, a slowdown is BAKED IN THE CAKE. https://t.co/uijU8le8FD
Trump’s Iran Threat Highlights His Aggressive Diplomacy
Trump on Iran: " We're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong." A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF TRUMP’S DIPLOMATIC RHETORIC. https://t.co/x6KI2D81sQ
Erdoğan Warns War Extension Could Spark Regional Conflict
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warned prolonging the war risks triggering a broader regional conflict, saying any new fronts would serve Israel’s “bloody strategy,” and vowed Turkey will act “without hesitation” to ensure peace. https://t.co/dy6Disl4Q7
Gulf Conflict Threatens to Tip Fragile Global Economy
Even before the US-Israeli war on Iran, the global trade engine was faltering. With the Gulf war mounting, it may just push the global economy over the edge. https://t.co/NMD5CzxP9b
China Sees US‑Israeli Clash on Iran as Strategic Boon
China sees the US-Israeli war on Iran as a strategic gift. The great power, the US, is making enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Napoleon famously said, ‘Never interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.' https://t.co/tWhTBmSIBr