Brazil's High Inflation Tied to Excessive Money Growth
Brazil's inflation is 3.8%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/TFkrFL2exI
Venezuela Wastes $330M Buying Bolívars; Adopt Dollar Now
#VNZWatch 🇻🇪: In an attempt to prop up the collapsing bolívar, the government has sold about $330 million to purchase bolívars. This is a futile exercise. THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPLACE THE BOLÍVAR WITH THE GREENBACK IMMEDIATELY. https://t.co/J9kJ4mZ9TB
PCE Inflation Stays at 2.8%, Exceeding Fed Target
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation index held steady in February at 2.8%/yr. This is ABOVE the FED’s inflation target of 2%/yr and the February forecast of 2.6%/yr. INFLATION = THE GENIE THE FED JUST CAN'T PUT BACK IN THE BOTTLE....
China's Central Bank Adds Record Gold in March
The People's Bank of China added another 5 tons of gold to its war chest in March. This is the largest monthly increase in over a year. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/D4y9h6K1mK
US Crude Inventories Plunge, Prices Set to Surge
The US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock just released at 3.72 M, DECREASING significantly from 10.26M the month prior. With the supply cutting off, it’s not a surprise that we are draining down reserves. When you reach the bottom of the tank,...
Gas Hits $4.14, Fueling War‑Driven Affordability Concerns
According to AAA, the national average cost of a gallon of gas has climbed to $4.14, marking a new 4-YEAR HIGH. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/PGOEBMp3lS
Irresponsible Policies Heighten Economy's Shock Vulnerability
According to the FT, the Iran-driven oil shock is exposing a new reality: Irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies have left many economies vulnerable to external shocks. https://t.co/cq9fxS0atg
Fed Misses 2% Target 60 Months, Global Inflation Persists
According to the FT, the FED has MISSED its 2% inflation target for 60 STRAIGHT MONTHS. Across the world, 3 out of 4 developed economies and 1 in 2 emerging economies are missing their targets as well. THE GLOBAL INFLATION GENIE REMAINS...
Netanyahu Denies Lebanon in US‑Israeli Ceasefire, Contradicts Pakistan
Netanyahu announced that the new US-Israeli ceasefire “does not include Lebanon.” This contradicts PM Sharif of Pakistan, who brokered the ceasefire, and said that the ceasefire was agreed to "everywhere including Lebanon". ISRAEL = THE SPOILER. https://t.co/mfcKZPYJqD
Israel Launches Massive Airstrikes Across Lebanon After US‑Iran Ceasefire
Israel has carried out a MASSIVE wave of airstrikes, bombing locations across Lebanon, including the capital, Beirut. The US signed a ceasefire with Iran. That opened the gates of hell in Lebanon. https://t.co/fMbLHEl1y3
US Iran War Costs Over $43 B, Tax Burden Rises
According to the Iran War Cost Tracker portal, the US military operation against Iran has cost more than a WHOPPING $43 billion thus far. TRUMP = WAR = MASSIVE TAX. https://t.co/GxCOHfc3vy
Regime‑change History Shows Iran Intervention Doomed
My take on @CoffeeandaMike: "If Trump and his advisors would have read the scholarly literature on regime change, they would have known that it would never work in Iran. The US has engaged in about 70 regime change operations since WWII, and...
Mearsheimer: Trump Undermines International Law, Allies, U.S. Reputation
UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on how Trump is damaging Uncle Sam's reputation: "Where this war really matters is how the US uses its power. The Trump administration... [is] undermining international law... international institutions and damaging its relations with allies." https://t.co/alLAlZkar7
Iran's Decentralized Structure Thwarts Decapitation Tactics
My take on Iran’s governmental organization with @CoffeeandaMike: “The way Iran is organized is very decentralized. With this kind of organizational structure, decapitation is bound to fail –– and it did fail in Iran.” https://t.co/nsee7XMejw
Iraq's Central Bank Data System Is Chaotic and Inaccessible
Iraq’s Central Bank data system is a MESS. It's almost IMPOSSIBLE to find basic monetary statistics. IRAQ = HIGHLY DYSFUNCTIONAL. https://t.co/eKvrUEI0qZ
Global Debt Soars Past $348T, Exceeds Triple GDP
Global debt now stands at $348 TRILLION. That’s more than 3 TIMES GLOBAL GDP. G7 Debt in G7 countries has surged from ~20% of GDP post WW2 to OVER 100% of GDP today. Global economies have never faced a shock with this...
China Upskills, Vietnam Low‑Costs, Mexico Nearshoring Falters
Global trade is rewiring. China is moving into HIGH-VALUE, ADVANCED manufacturing. Vietnam is rising as a LOW-COST HUB. Meanwhile, Mexico’s nearshoring hype has FAILED to deliver. https://t.co/moYJrnHSfE
Asia Pivots to Russian Oil Amid Middle East Turmoil
Asia’s energy reality is shifting FAST. As the Middle East’s supply of oil is disrupted by the US-Israeli war on Iran, countries are turning to Russian oil. RUSSIA = BIG WINNER. https://t.co/akGGPsbivA
Turkey's Inflation Eases, but Loose Policy Fuels Surge
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Turkey's CPI inflation slowed to 30.87%/yr in March, down from 31.53%/yr in February. With its money supply, M3, still growing at 39.9%/yr, Turkey’s #1 problem REMAINS Inflation. Monetary policy is still too loose. https://t.co/2EpdZjFZ8x
Pakistan Seeks China, Saudi Aid to Repay UAE Debt
Pakistan owes $3.5 billion to the UAE, due this month. To cover it, they are going hat in hand to China and Saudi Arabia, again. PAK = THIRD WORLD. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/e4naldX7Ad
Pakistan's Fuel Crisis Blamed on US, Israel Influence
When compared to India, Pakistan has only realized modest economic growth, at best. Pakistanis are facing record fuel shortages and fuel price increases. PAK’S FUEL CRISIS CAN BE LAID AT THE DOORSTEPS OF THE US AND ISRAEL. https://t.co/FHxBNEiD4O
High‑frequency Gauge Predicts Turkey's CPI Decline
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Some question Turkey's official CPI inflation drop from 31.58%/yr in Feb. to 30.87%/yr in Mar. I don’t. My high-frequency inflation measure is 20.9%/yr. That's below the official measure. My measure always leads the official measure, so the fall was expected....
Philippines Faces Energy Crisis Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
Since 2008, Philippines’s economy has put in a strong performance. But, thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, PH is going to take a hit. It has ~50 days of oil reserves left and has declared a national energy emergency. PH should send...
US‑Israeli Strike Provoked Hormuz Closure, Not Iranian Aggression
Why was the Strait of Hormuz shut down? It’s because Israel & the United States attacked Iran. In the Western media, the story is spun as if Iran initiated the closure. Iran is just counterattacking. The original cause is clearly the US-Israeli attack...
Iran's Oil Revenues Soar Amid War-Driven Price Spikes
My view on Iran's surge in revenues since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran with @CoffeeandaMike: "Since the war started, the Iranians have been shipping a lot more crude out of the Strait of Hormuz, they've been selling at...
Former OMB Chief Condemns Trump's Terrifying Iran Threats
My former colleague & ex-OMB Dir. @DA_Stockman on Trump's THREATS: "Trump’s latest rant [was] horrifically despicable. He is threatening to unleash Armageddon on the 90 million people of Iran and the 7 billion people of the planet who depend [on Iran]...
Iran Strikes Saudi’s Key Industrial Hub, Al Jubail.
After being attacked, Iran has counterattacked. Iran launched ballistic missiles targeting Al Jubail Industrial City in Saudi Arabia. Jubail has 150 industrial facilities and 2 oil refineries accounting for 25% of Saudi refining capacity. https://t.co/7mXVOrYTVW
Iran's Strategy May Leave US as Defeated Party
Former US Ambassador Chas Freeman on Iran’s successful ROPE-A-DOPE STRATEGY: "At the moment, it does not look like the defeated will be Iran. It looks like it could be us.” https://t.co/vp5vmaWNQT
Dimon Warns Private Credit Market on Brink of Collapse
The dean of America’s banking system, Jamie Dimon, warns that the $1.8T private credit market rests on grounds that become more shaky with each passing day. Defaults are rising. Risky loans are piling up. PRIVATE CREDIT MAY BE THE NEXT DOMINO TO...
85% of Spaniards Oppose US‑Israeli War on Iran
The Spaniards fully support PM Pedro Sánchez playing hardball with Trump about the US-Israeli war on Iran. According to a CIS poll, 85% of Spaniards reject the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. https://t.co/CTZI9tuH8Z
Mearsheimer: Trump's Air‑strike Regime‑change Fantasy Is Absurd
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Trump's uninformed foolishness in his war on Iran: "The idea that you can bomb a country and cause regime change with air power alone is not a serious argument. Why Trump thought he could pull...
US-Israeli Strikes Hit Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport
The US-Israeli lunacy in Iran continues. US-Israeli airstrikes have now struck Iran's Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran. https://t.co/q2RhUexF62
Prolonged Conflict Benefits Iran, Undermines US‑Israel Edge
My friend and Johns Hopkins colleague Vali Nasr on the folly of Trump climbing the Iranian escalation ladder: “The longer this [war] goes... it is the US and Israel that lose strategic advantage, and Iran that gains.” https://t.co/YkeKqJcI3j
Independent Inflation Gauge Correctly Predicted Turkey's CPI Decline
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey's March official CPI inflation is 30.8%/yr. That's down from 31.5% in Feb. Today, I measure Turkey's inflation at 20.9%/yr. Since my measure leads the official one, I anticipated that the official number would do just what it did. It...
Swiss Inflation Low, Money Supply Growth on Target
Switzerland’s inflation rate is 0.1%/yr. That's at the lower end of the Swiss target range of 0%-2%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Switzerland’s money supply (M3) just came in at 5.0%/yr. That's within Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 4.4%-6.4%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
Pakistan's Debt Service Will Swallow All Tax Revenue by 2030
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's public debt servicing is SOARING. By 2030, debt servicing is expected to consume ALL of Pakistan’s tax revenue. PAKISTAN = NEAR COLLAPSE. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/DfYw73ks3A
Erdogan Warns US‑Israeli Strikes Could Ignite Regional Fire
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: On February 28th, President Erdogan condemned the US–Israeli strikes on Iran and warned that if diplomacy and common sense do not prevail, the region could be dragged into a “ring of fire.” ERDOGAN'S 'RING OF FIRE' WAS...
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid War, Defying Claims
BNE Intellinews claims that the Iranian rial is "losing ground as military strikes hit infrastructure across the country". WRONG. FACT: Since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs the USD. https://t.co/6tlVgFd2Lt
Trump Lifts Oil Sanctions on Iran, Russia Amid Hormuz Closure
Following the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, Pres. Trump has EASED oil sanctions on Iran and Russia. Hopefully, this will be the start of an unwinding of the international sanctions regime. SANCTIONS = ILL FOUNDED = NEVER WORK. https://t.co/JXBVftRedd
U.S. Media Trust Plummets to 28%, 95% Irrelevant
A recent Gallup Institute survey found that TRUST IN THE MEDIA in the US has reached a STUNNING NEW LOW. Only 28% of Americans trust the press. Americans are catching on to HANKE'S 95% RULE: 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN...
Iranian Strike Devastates Haifa Residential Area, Video Leaks
Another video has escaped the grasp of Israeli censorship. Iranian counterattacks destroyed residential buildings in Haifa, Israel. First responders recovered multiple bodies from the rubble. Contrary to Trump’s rhetoric, IRAN IS LOCKED AND LOADED. https://t.co/mkmAfGU8js
Iranian Rial Gains 9% Amid US-Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran 5 weeks ago, the Iranian rial as APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA (READ: PROPGANDA MACHINE) REMAINS SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/9n42ihPYE9
Houthis Grip Bab Al-Mandeb, Threaten Global Shipping
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the gateway into the Red Sea, en route to the Suez Canal. Houthis CONTROL THE STRAIT. Ships avoid the strait because of danger & punishing insurance rates. If Trump escalates in Iran, the Houthis will squeeze the chokepoint...
Currie Calls Iran War Oil Shock Unprecedented, Like 1973+1979
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on the OIL SHOCK caused by Trump & Netanyahu's war in Iran: "It is the largest shock the oil markets have ever seen in their history... [It is] the culmination of ‘73 and...
Allies Hedge Bets, Distrust U.S. Amid Growing Skepticism
More evidence that even U.S. friends and allies don’t trust Uncle Sam and are hedging, pivoting away from the USA. https://t.co/Sn8dFUs5GJ
Demand Will Collapse Once Inventories Exhausted, Prices Surge
Distinguished economist & commodity market guru Jeff Currie on oil supply and demand: "Once we exhaust our ability to draw down inventories [in] mid to late April... demand has to come crashing down in line with supply. The key question is...
Pakistan's Reserves Plunge One-Third Amid Debt Repayments
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Due to foreign debt repayments, Pakistan's foreign reserves are set to shrink by a STUNNING ONE-THIRD this month. PAK = THIRD WORLD = IN THE TANK. FREE IMRAN KHAN. https://t.co/QKr6kb5Sop
Oil Inventories Falling, Price Spike Imminent, Catastrophe Ahead
According to Jeff Currie, distinguished economist and commodity market guru, we’re only seeing the start of what will become a major oil catastrophe. At present, we’re burning through oil inventories. Once inventories dwindle, oil prices will SPIKE. THE WORST IS YET TO COME....
India's Energy Imports Quadruple Since 2000, Heightening Vulnerability
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: India’s net energy imports have exploded over the past 2 decades. Net energy imports have SURGED more than 4x since 2000. MORE ENERGY IMPORTS = MORE VULNERABILITY. https://t.co/PxS0fxVpuJ
Western Media Misstates Russia's Modest Growth vs Ukraine's Decline
The Western press continues to repeat untruths about Russia's economy. Russia has grown at a modest rate since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Whereas, Ukraine's has sunk. HANKE'S 95% RULE = 95% OF WHAT YOU READ IN THE PRESS IS EITHER...