Steve Hanke

Steve Hanke

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Economist; FX, monetary systems, EM inflation

Iran’s Hormuz Leverage Pushes US to Ease Oil Sanctions
SocialMar 19, 2026

Iran’s Hormuz Leverage Pushes US to Ease Oil Sanctions

As an indication of how Iran is effectively playing its cards, its control of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Treasury Sec. Bessent to consider lifting sanctions on Iranian oil already at sea. US SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL BACKFIRE. https://t.co/K8vL4AFi49

By Steve Hanke
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% Amid Rising Rates
SocialMar 19, 2026

US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% Amid Rising Rates

US new home sales collapsed by a stunning 17.6% MoM in January, the most in 13 years. If that’s not bad enough, since the US-Israeli war in Iran began, mortgage rates have surged. TRUMP'S IN TROUBLE. https://t.co/He7ZCDPq2p

By Steve Hanke
Mearsheimer: International Law and Diplomacy Are Dead, Trust Erodes
SocialMar 19, 2026

Mearsheimer: International Law and Diplomacy Are Dead, Trust Erodes

Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on trusting US diplomacy: “International law has gone out the window, and diplomacy has gone out the window. You can’t trust the Israelis or the Americans as far as you can throw them.” https://t.co/bXOC31MInp

By Steve Hanke
Washington and Jerusalem Misjudge Iran's Rope‑A‑Doe Tactics
SocialMar 19, 2026

Washington and Jerusalem Misjudge Iran's Rope‑A‑Doe Tactics

My take in @BusinessInsider on the US-Israeli war against Iran: "The war planners in Washington, D.C. and Jerusalem apparently never understood that, when under attack, Iran would adopt Muhammad Ali's classic rope-a-dope strategy." https://t.co/Mw1R4PoFVd

By Steve Hanke
Mearsheimer Warns Iran Is a Formidable Strategic Opponent
SocialMar 19, 2026

Mearsheimer Warns Iran Is a Formidable Strategic Opponent

Distinguished Prof. John Mearsheimer on Iran’s strategy: “When you listen to Hegseth and Trump talk, they talk about the Iranians like they’re a bunch of country bumpkins and we’re the strategic geniuses...I think that's not the case…we are up against a formidable...

By Steve Hanke
Argentina's 33% Inflation Fueled by Excess Money Supply
SocialMar 19, 2026

Argentina's 33% Inflation Fueled by Excess Money Supply

Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 33.1%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 31.8%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...

By Steve Hanke
Canada’s Inflation Dip Mirrors Slowing Money Supply Growth
SocialMar 19, 2026

Canada’s Inflation Dip Mirrors Slowing Money Supply Growth

Canada's inflation dropped from 2.3% in Jan. to 1.8%/yr in Feb. Canada’s money supply (M3) is growing at 4.0%/yr.  That’s a bit below Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of ~6-8%/yr, a rate consistent with Canada's 1-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A...

By Steve Hanke
Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Growth Lags
SocialMar 19, 2026

Eurozone Inflation Below Target as Money Growth Lags

The Eurozone’s inflation comes in at 1.9%/yr. That's below its 2% target. The ECB’s money supply is only growing at 3.4%/yr. That's BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 6%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting ECB’s 2%/yr target. INFLATION STORY = MONEY SUPPLY...

By Steve Hanke
Sachs: US‑Israeli War on Iran Benefits No One
SocialMar 18, 2026

Sachs: US‑Israeli War on Iran Benefits No One

Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on the US-Israeli war on Iran: “This war is to nobody's advantage. It's a pure lose, lose, lose all around. Lose for Israel, lose for the United States, and lose for the rest of the...

By Steve Hanke
Air Power Won’t Force Iranian Regime Change, Says Mearsheimer
SocialMar 18, 2026

Air Power Won’t Force Iranian Regime Change, Says Mearsheimer

Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on regime change in Iran: “It's hard to get regime change or impossible to get regime change using air power alone…If you want regime change in Iran, you're going to have to invade that country. And...

By Steve Hanke
First Week of US‑Israeli War Outspends Major Agency Budgets
SocialMar 18, 2026

First Week of US‑Israeli War Outspends Major Agency Budgets

The first week of the US-Israeli war in Iran cost more than the annual budgets of major government agencies. WAR = A TRUMP TAX. https://t.co/ioXw5U0cVU

By Steve Hanke
Iran's Missile Threat Grows as US Defenses Wane
SocialMar 18, 2026

Iran's Missile Threat Grows as US Defenses Wane

Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on Iran’s strategy: “As time goes by, our ability to shoot down those missiles, shoot down drones decreases. It doesn't flatline, and it certainly doesn't increase… The Iranians have a serious set of military options against...

By Steve Hanke
Trump Tariffs Spike Diesel, Fertilizer Costs, Threaten Farm Voters
SocialMar 18, 2026

Trump Tariffs Spike Diesel, Fertilizer Costs, Threaten Farm Voters

Trump’s tariffs and the US-Israeli war on Iran are sending fertilizer and diesel costs through the roof. Diesel is up ~$1/gallon in a week. Urea fertilizer has jumped from $470/ton to up to $585. This jump in cost spells trouble for Trump and...

By Steve Hanke
PPI Stays Elevated at 3.4% Amid Fed QE Shift
SocialMar 18, 2026

PPI Stays Elevated at 3.4% Amid Fed QE Shift

February’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) was just released.  Over the past year, the PPI REMAINS ELEVATED at 3.4%/yr.  As the Fed pivots away from Quantitative Tightening to Quantitative Easing, it’s having trouble putting the INFLATION GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE. https://t.co/XFlfmOdN5q

By Steve Hanke
Trump Missed Iran’s Escalation Ladder, Warns Former Defense Official
SocialMar 18, 2026

Trump Missed Iran’s Escalation Ladder, Warns Former Defense Official

Dana Stroul, former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East: “It does not appear that President Trump and his inner circle fully grasped the escalation ladder and range of Iranian retaliation actions" An understatement if I've ever heard one....

By Steve Hanke
US Economy Slows; Trump’s Iran War Threatens Further Damage
SocialMar 18, 2026

US Economy Slows; Trump’s Iran War Threatens Further Damage

The US economy is losing momentum. In January, consumer spending slowed sharply to a crawl of 1.56% annualized. TRUMP’S WAR ON IRAN PROMISES MORE ECONOMIC DAMAGE. https://t.co/sjumYo1FBt

By Steve Hanke
Middle East Flight Cancellations Cost $34‑56 B in Tourism
SocialMar 18, 2026

Middle East Flight Cancellations Cost $34‑56 B in Tourism

MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR AGAINST IRAN: More than 52,000 flights have been canceled across the Middle East. Roughly 6M passengers have been affected. According to the NYT, the resulting loss of tourist spending alone could range from $34B-$56B this year....

By Steve Hanke
Drone Strike Ignites Abu Dhabi Gas Field Amid Iran Conflict
SocialMar 17, 2026

Drone Strike Ignites Abu Dhabi Gas Field Amid Iran Conflict

A drone strike has set the Shah natural gas field ABLAZE in Abu Dhabi. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = IRANIAN COUNTER-ATTACKS = LOTS OF COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/VBVzVrAIDg

By Steve Hanke
Tucker Carlson Blames Israel for Starting War, Controlling US Policy
SocialMar 17, 2026

Tucker Carlson Blames Israel for Starting War, Controlling US Policy

.@TuckerCarlson on the Israeli lobby in a @piersmorgan interview: "[Israel is] the size of New Jersey. You don't make operational decisions, and you certainly don't tell the world's dominant superpower what we're doing next... [Israel] is in charge of this war....

By Steve Hanke
Allies Resist Trump's Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
SocialMar 17, 2026

Allies Resist Trump's Push to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

US allies in Europe and Asia are in no hurry to bow to Trump's demand in helping reopen the Strait of Hormuz. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN MAKING ENEMIES, EVEN WITH FOREIGN ENEMIES. https://t.co/er5H0ym7dv

By Steve Hanke
Trump’s Iran Gambit Ignites a Raging, Unintended Inferno
SocialMar 16, 2026

Trump’s Iran Gambit Ignites a Raging, Unintended Inferno

My view of Trump's grasp of reality: "Trump foolishly thought he was going to easily put out a little brush fire in Iran. Instead, he poked a stick into a hornet's nest. It's fueled a raging inferno that's generating massive collateral...

By Steve Hanke
US Shows Strike Footage, Hides 1,348 Iranian Civilian Deaths
SocialMar 16, 2026

US Shows Strike Footage, Hides 1,348 Iranian Civilian Deaths

The US has released new footage of strikes carried out on Iran. What the US fails to advertise is that at least 1,348 Iranian civilians have been KILLED since the war started. https://t.co/N7iPfNs9zd

By Steve Hanke
German Minister Denies Involvement, Underscores Trump’s Limited Sway
SocialMar 16, 2026

German Minister Denies Involvement, Underscores Trump’s Limited Sway

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on the US-ISRAELI WAR IN IRAN: "This isn’t our war and we didn’t start it." THIS IS PRECISELY WHY TRUMP HAS NOT BECOME A SUCCESSFUL PIED PIPER. https://t.co/qxwvC1PzIG

By Steve Hanke
India Vulnerable to Soaring Oil Prices From US‑Israel Conflict
SocialMar 16, 2026

India Vulnerable to Soaring Oil Prices From US‑Israel Conflict

My take on the effect of the US-Israel war on India: "It will hit India particularly hard if the price of oil hits $120 / barrel or $200 / barrel because India is the third largest oil importer in the world."...

By Steve Hanke
Iran Controls Key Chokepoint, US Planners Overlooked It
SocialMar 16, 2026

Iran Controls Key Chokepoint, US Planners Overlooked It

It is clear that Iran is in control of one of the world's greatest choke points. Apparently, the US military planners failed to see what is CLEAR AS A NOSE ON YOUR FACE. https://t.co/mGgjrf1ZGW

By Steve Hanke
Iran Drone Strikes Halt Dubai's Busiest Airport
SocialMar 16, 2026

Iran Drone Strikes Halt Dubai's Busiest Airport

Iran has launched drone strikes on Dubai International Airport. The BUSIEST airport in the world, with 95.2 MILLION passengers, has now SUSPENDED ALL FLIGHTS. https://t.co/nkHDA8z9yJ

By Steve Hanke
Carlson: No Logical Case Iran War Benefits U.S.
SocialMar 16, 2026

Carlson: No Logical Case Iran War Benefits U.S.

Tucker Carlson on the war in Iran: “At no juncture, have I ever met anybody who has laid out a reasonable, even slightly fantastical, but logical case for how this war will benefit the United States.” https://t.co/fApB1lb4c0

By Steve Hanke
War Costs Americans at Pump and Grocery
SocialMar 16, 2026

War Costs Americans at Pump and Grocery

Pres. Trump and PM Netanyahu's war is TAXING Americans at the pump and at the grocery store. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/l1tQlYx8aS

By Steve Hanke
Hormuz Closure Threatens Oil, Gas, Fertilizer, Food Security
SocialMar 16, 2026

Hormuz Closure Threatens Oil, Gas, Fertilizer, Food Security

Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson on the GLOBAL IMPACT of the STRAIT OF HORMUZ: "You’ve now closed off 20% of the world’s oil supply, 25% of the world’s liquid natural gas, and 35% of the world’s urea... There's going to be...

By Steve Hanke
Iran Conflict Triggers Massive Flight Cancellations and Higher Fares
SocialMar 15, 2026

Iran Conflict Triggers Massive Flight Cancellations and Higher Fares

The Iran war has forced the cancellation of TENS OF THOUSANDS of flights across the Middle East. Rerouted flights are burning more fuel and pushing ticket prices higher. TRUMP-NETANYAHU = A WAR TAX. https://t.co/xDKppRjcdi

By Steve Hanke
Trump’s Naive Belief: Decapitation Yields Compliant Iran
SocialMar 15, 2026

Trump’s Naive Belief: Decapitation Yields Compliant Iran

Distinguished military historian Phillips O’Brien on the war in Iran: "[Trump] was boasting about American military power... He thought this would be relatively straightforward, [like] the Venezuela model... Kill the leadership, and get a leadership that is much more compliant." https://t.co/gV29tXCQYl

By Steve Hanke
Israel's Occupation Devastates West Bank and Gaza Economies
SocialMar 15, 2026

Israel's Occupation Devastates West Bank and Gaza Economies

Take a look at what Israel's Reign of Terror in the occupied West Bank & Gaza has done to their economies. And we don't even have 2025 data, yet. https://t.co/AruQRDwOZD

By Steve Hanke
Historian Calls US Iran War Strategy Shoddy
SocialMar 15, 2026

Historian Calls US Iran War Strategy Shoddy

Military historian Phillips O’Brien on the problems the US is facing in executing its war in Iran: "It reveals a lot of the shoddy nature of the strategic planning." https://t.co/qS1gZLapCT

By Steve Hanke
Judge Blocks Trump's DOJ Subpoenas to Fed, Citing Harassment
SocialMar 15, 2026

Judge Blocks Trump's DOJ Subpoenas to Fed, Citing Harassment

A US federal judge has blocked subpoenas issued by Trump’s Department of Justice to the Federal Reserve. The judge cited “thin evidence” and the intent to “harass and pressure [Fed Chair] Powell.” TRUMP’S THREATS = BACKFIRE. https://t.co/sPyzhpBuf5

By Steve Hanke
War on Iran Sparks Unprecedented Supply Chain Uncertainty
SocialMar 15, 2026

War on Iran Sparks Unprecedented Supply Chain Uncertainty

The US-Israeli war on Iran, is heavily disrupting fertilizer, aluminum, semiconductor inputs, and other key industrial supplies. Supply chain expert Nick Vyas: “We have created equal if not greater uncertainty than during the pandemic.” TRUMP’S WAR = AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS. https://t.co/zziB6qAr5L

By Steve Hanke
UK January Growth Stalls; Starmer Prioritizes Russia over Economy
SocialMar 15, 2026

UK January Growth Stalls; Starmer Prioritizes Russia over Economy

The UK economy showed NO GROWTH in January. No surprise. RUSSOPHOBE Starmer is too busy picking fights with Russia than fixing Britain's TANKING economy. https://t.co/Wz4vL8LULC

By Steve Hanke
Oil Shock Resilience Masks Sectoral Strain on Airlines, Farms, Autos
SocialMar 15, 2026

Oil Shock Resilience Masks Sectoral Strain on Airlines, Farms, Autos

The WSJ reports: "The U.S. economy is less exposed to oil shocks today than in prior decades." But, today’s economy shows strain in airlines, farms, autos. Airlines face soaring fuel costs. Farmers face higher fertilizer prices. Rising gas prices threaten US autos. https://t.co/bOpYCs0pCD

By Steve Hanke
Global Shipping Chaos Raises Costs for Everyone
SocialMar 15, 2026

Global Shipping Chaos Raises Costs for Everyone

More than 100 cargo ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf. Nearby ports are packed with redirected cargo. Costs are being driven up globally. NOBODY IS SPARED FROM THE TRUMP- NETANYAHU WAR TAX. https://t.co/EF8fmqKgiV

By Steve Hanke
Iran's Inflation Hits 66.2%, World’s Third‑Highest
SocialMar 15, 2026

Iran's Inflation Hits 66.2%, World’s Third‑Highest

#IranWatch🇮🇷: Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at a PUNISHING 66.2%/yr. That's the world's THIRD HIGHEST INFLATION RATE. I remain the only reliable source of inflationary measures in Iran. https://t.co/8Dw75zObyw

By Steve Hanke
Israel Admits Targeting Civilian Sites in Lebanon, 773 Dead
SocialMar 13, 2026

Israel Admits Targeting Civilian Sites in Lebanon, 773 Dead

ISRAEL CONTINUES BOMBING LEBANON. Today, for the first time, the Israelis admitted targeting civilian infrastructure. Since March 2nd, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports that at least 773 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. https://t.co/RtUAb9jgfW

By Steve Hanke
Supreme Court Declares Trump Tariffs Illegal, Refunds Delayed
SocialMar 13, 2026

Supreme Court Declares Trump Tariffs Illegal, Refunds Delayed

The Supreme Court ruled that Trump’s reciprocal tariffs were ILLEGAL. Now, the US government is slow walking the refunds Americans are due. Once the government illegally taxes you, it’s hard to get a legal refund. https://t.co/crKDhGMBIe

By Steve Hanke
Iran's Deterrence Strategy: Targeting Regional Energy Infrastructure
SocialMar 13, 2026

Iran's Deterrence Strategy: Targeting Regional Energy Infrastructure

My take on Iran’s war strategy in @RFERL: “Iran’s strategy is deterrence. It cannot match US-Israeli firepower, but it can raise the cost of the war. That means retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure and other economic targets across the region.” https://t.co/w5DylP6XRN

By Steve Hanke
Merz Warns of Endless War without Unified Strategy
SocialMar 13, 2026

Merz Warns of Endless War without Unified Strategy

German Chancellor Merz on the Israeli-US war against Iran: “What concerns us most is that there is clearly no common plan for bringing this war to a swift and convincing conclusion. We have no interest in an endless war.” MERZ SOUNDS LIKE...

By Steve Hanke
War on Iran Spikes Fertilizer Prices, Fuels Farmer Backlash
SocialMar 13, 2026

War on Iran Spikes Fertilizer Prices, Fuels Farmer Backlash

MORE COLLATERAL DAMAGE FROM THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN: Fertilizer shipments from the Persian Gulf are stuck. Fertilizer prices have jumped about 30%. US FARMERS ARE STARTING TO TURN AGAINST TRUMP. https://t.co/IwXKoWCUj0

By Steve Hanke
SpaceX's $1.75T IPO Could Trigger Market Bubble
SocialMar 13, 2026

SpaceX's $1.75T IPO Could Trigger Market Bubble

SpaceX is targeting a $1.75T IPO. That would make it the 6th largest company in the world on day one. Nasdaq is already proposing rule changes to let SpaceX enter the Nasdaq 100 in just 15 days instead of a year. My...

By Steve Hanke
Sachs Warns Israel‑US Conflict Triggers Global Economic Crisis
SocialMar 13, 2026

Sachs Warns Israel‑US Conflict Triggers Global Economic Crisis

Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on the war in Iran: "Like it or not, the world is going into a profound economic crisis. Israel set this off together with the US, and the world will pay a fearsome price for...

By Steve Hanke
Iran's Real Power: Controlling the Strait of Hormuz
SocialMar 13, 2026

Iran's Real Power: Controlling the Strait of Hormuz

My take on Iran's biggest advantage in the war: "The US & Israel are making mincemeat out of Iran, but Iranians still hold their key card: the Strait of Hormuz, which remains shut down. A great friend in Dubai said he...

By Steve Hanke
Pentagon's $11B Iran War Figure Grossly Understates True Cost
SocialMar 13, 2026

Pentagon's $11B Iran War Figure Grossly Understates True Cost

In the last week alone, the Pentagon estimates that the US spent $11 BILLION on the Iran war. WARNING: Pentagon estimates are always fiction and way below the real cost. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/49t33aGlwH

By Steve Hanke
UAE Rail Shifts 459k Tons in Nine Days
SocialMar 13, 2026

UAE Rail Shifts 459k Tons in Nine Days

With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the UAE has turned to its rail network. Etihad Rail Freight has transported 459,000 tons of cargo and 7,900 containers in only 9 days. UAE’S INFRASTRUCTURE MITIGATES THE WAR’S COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/cRyWRv4gvD

By Steve Hanke