Mearsheimer: US War in Iran Faltering, Trump Stuck
Distinguished UChicago Prof. John Mearsheimer on the war in Iran: “It’s quite clear that the war is not going well for the United States… and the problem that [Trump] faces is he can’t find an off-ramp.” https://t.co/7LkbA4GAp1
US‑Israeli Strikes Target Iran’s Regime Stability over Economy
My take on infrastructure attacks on Iran in @RFERL: “The aim of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran’s economic and energy infrastructure is not primarily economic; it's strategic. The goal is to weaken Iran to the point of regime collapse or fragmentation." https://t.co/w5DylP6q2f
Trump Releases 172M Barrels, Calls SPR Outdated White Elephant
TRUMP PANICS and orders the release of 172 million barrels of oil from America's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). This will amount to a drop in the bucket. SPR is a classic OUTDATED GOV'T WHITE ELEPHANT. It's time to liquidate it and shut it...
Iran War Threatens Fertilizer Flow, Spikes Food Prices
My take on the CONSEQUENCES of the WAR IN IRAN: "About 33 percent of the world's fertilizer goes through the Strait of Hormuz. Some people realize this is a BIG DEAL." UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR = HIGHER FOOD PRICES. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney on...
German Manufacturing Orders Plunge 11% Amid Green Policies, Sanctions
The WSJ reports that German manufacturing orders fell 11.1% in January compared with the previous month. GERMANY’S GREEN MADNESS & SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA HAVE PROVEN TO BE A DEADLY COCKTAIL FOR GERMANY. https://t.co/sqcs2lQvqA
Erdogan Warns Against Zionist Plot, Urges Regional Safeguards
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warns: “We must not fall for the Zionist massacre network’s game of “killing the bird with someone else’s stone”. We are taking the necessary precautions against bloody scenarios that some want to stage in our region.” https://t.co/2JesCmUlN4
Paper Recycling Depends on Critical Imported Chemicals
As a member of the UAE’s Financial Advisory Council (2008–2014), I made many friends. Here's what an old friend just texted me from Dubai: "Our paper recycling plant is still running because 95% of the raw material is collected locally. But...
Erdoğan Rejects Sectarian Labels, Emphasizes Unity in Islam
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan emphasizes: “We are moving carefully to protect Türkiye from the fire surrounding it. We have never viewed the Iranian people as Shia or Sunni, Turk or Kurd. For us, there is no ‘Sunni-ism’ or ‘Shia-ism’—only Islam.” https://t.co/zPyvCgXvIE
Money Supply Drives Inflation, Though Lags Vary
My take on the MONEY SUPPLY: "The money supply is always the cause of inflation. There are long and variable lags between changes in the money supply and changes in inflation." THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. My latest with @JanetOnTheMoney...
AI Firms Plan $4.1T Capex, Outspending US Non‑financials
The 2026 OECD Debt Report shows the 9 major AI players have forecasted capital expenditures of $4.1 TRILLION for 2026-2030. That’s $1.1 TRILLION MORE than total capital expenditures by all US NON-FINANCIAL companies in 2025. WELCOME TO THE AI BUBBLE. https://t.co/YzxlQOpkiV
Spain Permanently Recalls Ambassador Amid US‑Israeli Iran Strikes
Today, Spain PERMANENTLY withdrew its ambassador to Israel. This comes after the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. TRUMP & NETANYAHU ARE COLLECTING ENEMIES BY THE BUSHEL. https://t.co/PfxwQify0D
Global Debt Set to Double to $29 Trillion by 2026
According to the OECD’s 2026 Global Debt Report, “governments and companies are set to borrow 29 TRILLION USD...in 2026”. That’s DOUBLE the amount TEN YEARS AGO. THE GLOBAL DEBT MACHINE IS IN OVERDRIVE. https://t.co/i5ETywj1pD
Iranian Rial Jumps 17% After US‑Israeli Strikes
Since the first US-Israeli strikes on Iran just over 10 days ago, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 17% against the USD. THE TRUMP-NETANYAHU ATTACKS ON IRAN = SURPRISING STRENGTH IN THE RIAL. https://t.co/BPJtg4MvGr
UAE Economy Lags Behind Turkey and Iran, Data Shows
There are many narratives that are regularly spun by the spinners. One is that the UAE is more than a sunny place where shady people reside. Another is that it is a booming economy. Wrong. When you look at the data, the...
China's Exports Soar 21.8%, Trump Trade War Backfires
China’s exports SURGED by 21.8% in the first 2 months of 2026. Trump’s international trade war is BACKFIRING. Thanks to Trump, CHINA IS WINNING THE TRADE WAR, BIG-TIME. https://t.co/h0s5xlnA1N
Venezuela and North Korea Lead Global Inflation Surge
#HankeInflationDashboard: By my measurements, this week's top 5 inflators are: 🇻🇪Venezuela — 668.1%/yr 🇰🇵North Korea — 111.3%/yr 🇮🇷Iran— 66.2%/yr 🇱🇾Libya — 65.9%/yr 🇨🇺Cuba — 47.4%/yr https://t.co/hmt2ECWysz
Brazil's High Money Supply Fuels Inflation Above Target
#BrazilWatch🇧🇷: Brazil's inflation is 4.4%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3.0% inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3.0%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Milei’s Inflation Surge Outpaces Even Hanke’s Growth Benchmark
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.4%/yr. Argentina’s money supply (M3) is growing at 38.7%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = PRES. MILEI'S ACHILLES...
Trump’s Spain Trade Threat Backfires on US Economy
Last week, Trump threatened to cut off trade with Spain over the use of military bases against Iran. It’s clear he didn’t realize that Spain is 1 of 12 countries for which the US has a positive trade balance. TRUMP = SHOOTS...
Trump Denies US Strike; Evidence Points to American Tomahawk
When asked whether the US bombed an Iranian elementary school, Trump replied: “No. In my opinion and based on what I’ve seen, that was done by Iran.” But the NYT and other sources report that it was a U.S. Tomahawk strike. https://t.co/dyjpwhA9vS
Trump and Netanyahu May Empower Iran Hardliners
The FT reports that at the end of the day, the regime in Iran will probably remain standing and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is positioned to make the regime more hardline. HAVE TRUMP AND NETANYAHU OPENED THE DOOR FOR THE...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 87%, Calls for Dollarization
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 87% against the USD over the past year. VENEZUELA'S PATH TO RECOVERY = REPLACING THE BOLIVAR WITH THE DOLLAR. https://t.co/rbalL5aTfh
24,000 Tons Adrift, Urgent Need for Alternative Ports
As a member of the UAE’s Financial Advisory Council (2008–2014), I made many friends. Here’s some intel one just texted me: "We have some 24,000 tons of material floating on water and need to find alternative ports on the Arabian Sea...
Trump Deficits Financing Fuels Money Supply, Sparks Inflation
My column in @FortuneMagazine on the US deficit and inflation: "If the Trump budget deficits continue to be financed through the banking system & money market funds, the growth rate in the money supply will continue to accelerate & headline inflation...
Control Money Growth, Offset Oil Spending, Curb Inflation
My new column in @FortuneMagazine on US inflation: "If the rate of growth in broad money is controlled, then higher spending on oil & gasoline will be offset by lower spending on other items, restraining overall inflation." INFLATION = A MONETARY PHENOMENON.
Higher Oil Prices Just Shift Relative Prices, Not Inflation
My take on the effect that increasing oil prices have on inflation: "There is a lot of narrative being spun in the newspapers saying that oil price increases will cause inflation. No. It simply means that the price of oil will...
China's PPI Negative Three Years, Signaling Persistent Deflation
China is in the grip of a DEFLATION. In February, its Producer Price Index (PPI) was NEGATIVE at -0.9%/yr. If that's not bad enough, China's PPI has been negative for 3 STRAIGHT YEARS. DEFLATION = AN ANEMIC MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH STORY. https://t.co/HLuNvjATSK
Turkey's Economy Surged While Saudi and Iran Stagnated
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Iran were virtually identical. The only economy in the region that boomed was Turkey. A GRAPH IS WORTH A THOUSAND WORDS. https://t.co/1l6xvZVSll
China’s Low Inflation Mirrors Slower Money Supply Growth
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.3%/yr in February, BELOW its 2% target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Gas Prices Likely Over $4.50, Threatening Trump's Appeal
According to @Polymarket, there is a 64% chance of average US gas prices surpassing $4.50/gallon this month. THE WINDS OF WAR = HIGHER GASOLINE PRICES = MORE AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS FOR TRUMP. https://t.co/yN19wtznw8
Gas Price Surge Hits Low‑income Households Hardest
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, on rising gas prices: “It’s particularly hard on lower-income households that spend a higher share of the budget on gas.” TRUMP = WAR PRESIDENT = MAKE AMERICANS POOR AGAIN. https://t.co/A2h1V7xApC
Trump's Tariff Threats Push 74% Canadians Against US
America's northern neighbors have gone negative on the Good Old USA. A STUNNING 74% of Canadians view the US in an unfavorable light. TRUMP TARIFF THREATS = A MASTERCLASS IN HOW TO CREATE ENEMIES. https://t.co/NrtlXSevsb
Oil Shocks Affect Prices, Not Sustained Inflation
The Financial Times warns that rising oil prices threaten to fuel inflation. WRONG. Oil shocks change RELATIVE prices, but DO NOT cause SUSTAINED inflation. INFLATION IS ALWAYS & EVERYWHERE A MONETARY PHENOMENON. https://t.co/zvENzIWzCy
Graphs Retain More than Text: Visuals Process Faster
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The human brain processes images 60,000 times faster than text, and the retention of information presented in graphs is much higher than text. NOTHING BEATS A GOOD GRAPH. TURKEY booms. Before the war, IRAN did not tank. LEBANON is in the...
From Iraq Mistake to Iran War: Trump's Repeating Hypocrisy
In 2016, Trump called the Iraq War and the search for nuclear weapons a “big, fat mistake.” 10 years later, Trump is waging war in Iran. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. https://t.co/zvsvJCcvwJ
Putin Hasn't Spoken to Trump Since Iran Strike
Geopolitics expert Alexander Mercouris on Putin-Trump's sour relations: "It is a striking fact that Putin has not spoken to Trump at any point since the start of the American operation against Iran. In fact, he has not spoken to Trump since...
Hormuz Traffic Stalls; Iran Maintains Chokepoint Control
The Strait of Hormuz has seen virtually ZERO movement in the past 24 hours. IRAN CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE KEY CHOKEPOINT IN THE GULF.
Trump's Iran War Drains Nearly $1 Billion Daily
CNN reports that Trump's war in Iran is costing the US more than $890 MILLION PER DAY. WAR = MASSIVE COST = FISCAL PROBLEMS. https://t.co/NDO5P1kaiE
Israel's 1.8% Inflation Matches Golden Money‑supply Growth
Israel’s inflation is 1.8%/yr. Israel’s broad money supply is growing at 8.1%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate range of 7.7%-9.7%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Israel’s 1%-3%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/CWltetUlYU
Mexico's Inflation Aligns with Hanke's Golden Money Growth
Mexico’s inflation is 3.8%/yr. Mexico’s money supply (M4) is growing at 9.2%/yr. That's WITHIN Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 7.3%-9.3%/yr, a rate consistent w/ hitting Mexico’s 2%-4%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/jQ05GUvmPW
Kuwait's Forced Oil Shutdown Deepens Economic Crisis
Adding to Kuwait's economic misery, it has just been forced to shut down its oil production. Since the Global Financial Crisis, Kuwait's economy has tanked. Turkey's has boomed. And contrary to WESTERN PROPAGANDA, Iran's did not collapse, prior to the US-Israeli...
Buy‑the‑dip Mindset May Fail After Latest Shock
Following geopolitical shocks, investors have been conditioned to buy the dip. THIS TIME THEY MIGHT BE WRONG. https://t.co/rbiIiiZSzE
Bessent Likely to Lift Sanctions on Russian Oil
To avoid further panic in the oil markets, I anticipate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be forced to "unsanction" more Russian oil trapped in the sanctioned shadow fleet next week. SANCTIONS CREATE NOTHING BUT TROUBLE. IT'S TIME FOR BESSENT...
Foreign Investors Boost US Assets 31% in 2025
Despite what you read daily in the press, the de-dollarization narrative doesn’t have legs. In 2025, overseas investors bought a net $1.55 trillion in long term US financial assets. That’s UP 31.4% since 2024. https://t.co/NUFKLfdh4l
US Waives Penalty Tariffs, India Keeps Strategic Ambiguity
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The US reverses course. First, the US placed 25% “penalty tariffs” on India for buying Russian crude. Now, the US has granted a 30-day waiver that will allow India to buy Russian oil. MODI’S STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY REIGNS SUPREME. https://t.co/zWsRpg2QtK
Bolivia's Inflation Soars to 19.6%, Dollarization Needed
Bolivia's inflation remains out of control at 19.56%/yr. That is nearly 4x its August 2024 rate of 5.2%/yr. To kill inflation, Bolivia must dollarize. https://t.co/oK5i4Lims6
Trump's Disapproval Soars on Cost of Living, Tariffs
In the latest Fox News poll TRUMP IS TANKING. His disapproval rating on the cost of living is 67% and 63% disapprove of his tariff policies. THE TARIFF MAN = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/cPG2lx1syb
Indonesia Halts Board of Peace Talks, Calls End Iran War
Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim nation, with a Muslim population of over 240 million, has suspended all discussions on the proposed Board of Peace. Leading Indonesian Muslim groups have called for an exit from the Board and an end to the...
Gas Prices Rise 27 Cents, War Hits Wallet
Since last week, average US gasoline prices are up 27 cents to $3.25 per gallon. WAR = COSTS AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/2wqMMXwNZP
China Halts Fuel Exports as Oil Shock Spikes Prices
Bracing for an oil shock, China ordered refiners to halt new diesel and gasoline export contracts and cancel existing shipments. From a week ago, their diesel prices are up 13.5%, gasoline up 11%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = COLLATERAL DAMAGE =...