US Q4 Productivity Slumps, AI Hype Stalls
This morning, the US BLS released nonfarm productivity data for Q4 2025. Q4 2025 growth was revised down to 1.8%, from 2.8%, and well below the 5.2% surge in Q3. FULL-YEAR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH SLOWED TO 2.1% IN 2025, DOWN FROM 3.0% IN 2024. SO MUCH FOR THE AI HYPE. https://t.co/hPkXLvLSZI
Aluminum Prices Surge 12‑40% Amid US‑Israel Conflict
As a result of the US-Israeli war in Iran, ALUMINUM prices are UP 12-40% THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. The world’s biggest carmakers are reportedly “panic buying.” CARMAKERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP & NETANYAHU. https://t.co/yRInvBpEdm
Official Iran Inflation Rate Underestimates True 67%
Iran's the Statistical Center of Iran reports that Iran's yearly inflation was 47.5%/yr. WRONG. Today, I measure Iran’s inflation at 67%/yr. I am the only accurate source of inflation measurements for Iran. https://t.co/mSpK5W3YvR
Japanese Automakers Turn to Russian Aluminum Amid US‑Israeli Conflict
As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Japanese carmakers are looking to BUY ALUMINUM from RUSSIA. RUSSIA = THE BIG WINNER OF TRUMP & NETANYAHU'S WAR. https://t.co/JIiV9xOkFp
Rising Gas Prices Hurt 55% of Americans, Undermining Trump
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 55% of Americans report that rising gas prices have negatively impacted their finances. AFFORDABILITY = TRUMP'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/kJMYHDcmB6
AI Hasn't Displaced Offshore Workers, Data Shows
The Silicon Valley sillies claim that AI is replacing offshore workers. Evidence from India and the Philippines shows no sign that this has happened yet. Hanke's 95% Rule: 95% of what you read in the press is either WRONG or IRRELEVANT. https://t.co/gzWcDM4Zjq
Polymarket Predicts 55% Chance of US Invading Iran
According to @Polymarket, there is a 55% chance US forces enter Iran by the end of April. Forget Trump’s talk of the art of the deal. He takes his orders from Jerusalem. https://t.co/GgrtwQc8kz
Pakistan Faces Energy Crunch as Qatar LNG Supply Dries
Almost 99% of Pakistan’s LNG imports came from Qatar last year. Now, PAK import terminals are close to shutting down. Pakistan may be forced to turn to more EXPENSIVE and DIRTIER furnace oil to generate power. PAKISTAN SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR...
Iran's Economy Was Not Collapsing Before US‑Israeli Attack
One of the many lies about Iran that has been generated in Washington, D.C., and other Western capitals is that, before the current US-Israeli attack on Iran, Iran's economy was in a state of collapse. NOT TRUE. JUST TAKE A GLANCE AT...
Venezuela's Bolivar Plummets 86%, Dollarization Needed
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by 86% against the USD over the past year. The only thing that will salvage Venezuela is DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/HsoegSMSO1
Parsi Explains Rial’s 12% Surge Amid US‑Israel Conflict
Johns Hopkins PhD Trita Parsi is on to something. What Parsi reports helps explain why the Iranian Rial has soared by 12% against the USD during the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran.
Jet Fuel Costs Double, Sparking Airline Crisis
Jet fuel prices have DOUBLED to over $200/barrel since the Iran war. Asian airlines and energy suppliers face MAJOR SHORTAGES. SIGNS OF A MAJOR CRISIS ARE APPEARING: Thousands of flights have already been canceled AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO...
Sachs: Iran Denies Talks, Trump’s Claim Questionable
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on Pres. Trump’s claim that the US is engaged in negotiations with Iran: “The Iranians have been saying very clearly that there are no negotiations... I think it raises questions about the President.” https://t.co/aM61cohaAc
Iran’s Rope‑a‑Dope Tactic: Endure, Exhaust, Then Strike
My take on Iran's war strategy: "The Iranians have adopted the Muhammad Ali Rope-a-Dope strategy. Iran will absorb massive punishment until the US and Israel are exhausted. Then, Iran will land a knock-out blow." IRAN CONTROLS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. https://t.co/Vfv8lDJsQc
US‑Israeli Strike Closes Hormuz, Triggers Global Gas Crisis
Thanks to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is ‘closed’. As a result, countries worldwide are facing a gas supply CLIFF-EDGE. LNG from Qatar is NOWHERE TO BE FOUND. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE. https://t.co/qE8zgTwxgC
Strait Closure Triggers Universal Refined‑petroleum Supply Shock
I spoke with @GaryBohm5 'Metals and Miners' about the closure of the Strait: "It will affect everything that's produced by refined petroleum: the chemical and plastics industry, fertilizer. This supply shock will ripple through everything. There's nothing that isn't touched." https://t.co/SPZ9A1UMhy
US New Home Sales Plunge 17.6% to Pandemic Lows
From December to January, US new home sales DROPPED by a STUNNING 17.6%. Sales were at their lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. AMERICAN HOUSING MARKET = IN THE TANK. https://t.co/AMSqv9ZMsT
U.S. and NATO Troops Exit Baghdad, Signaling Ongoing Instability
NATO & US troops from Victoria Base in Baghdad have TAKEN THE EXIT DOOR. After the US regime change that took out Saddam Hussein 23 years ago, NATO & the US have determined Iraq is STILL TOO DANGEROUS A PLACE TO...
Switzerland Halts US Military Exports Amid Iran Conflict
Because of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Switzerland has suspended military exports to the United States. TRUMP = A MASTERCLASS IN CREATING ENEMIES. https://t.co/dQ6lG3KAgS
Iranian Rial Gains 12% Amid Early War Turmoil
Through the first 3 weeks of the US-Israel war on Iran, the Iranian rial has demonstrated surprising resilience. It has APPRECIATED 12% against the USD. https://t.co/eDotRHK77c
Sri Lanka Refuses US Request to Base Fighter Jets
Sri Lanka has denied a US request to land fighter jets for Trump’s Iran war. TRUMP & THE US = COLLECTING ENEMIES BY THE BUSHEL. https://t.co/zyC7L7xJau
Polymarket Predicts 28% Chance Hormuz Reopens by April
Polymarket, a large prediction market, shows only a 28% chance that the Strait of Hormuz will open for normal traffic by the end of April. TRUMP & NETANYAHU’S WAR ON IRAN = MASSIVE COSTS. https://t.co/slk6gIZTUJ
Xi Pushes RMB as Global Reserve Amid U.S. Isolation
The U.S. is accumulating enemies faster than you can shake a stick. Chinese President Xi SEES AN OPENING. Xi has made a new push the renminbi to be a global reserve currency. https://t.co/qMpgMEp3Fo
Only 7% of Americans Back Trump's Iran Troop Threat
Only 7% of Americans support Trump's threat to send US ground troops into Iran. AMERICAN SUPPORT FOR THE US-ISRAELI WAR AGAINST IRAN = VIRTUALLY NONEXISTENT. https://t.co/5SDVzUht3L
HK Inflation Near Target, Currency Board Proves Effective
Hong Kong’s inflation rate comes in at 1.7%/yr in February, JUST A TAD below its de facto 2%/yr inflation target. Hong Kong’s Dollar-Based Currency Board is WORKING LIKE A CHARM. https://t.co/Q0L3lNddlP
Sachs Predicts US Loses Geopolitical Edge to China
Distinguished Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on current geopolitics: "In many ways, the US can not compete with China [in both manufacturing and diplomacy]... And I think we all feel it's not a temporary phenomenon but really the end of the...
Iran Conflict Threatens Trump Republicans in Midterms
With virtually no international support and a strong disapproval by the American public, Operation Epic Fury in Iran might topple Trump's republicans in the midterm elections. The US-Israeli war on Iran has SPUN OUT OF CONTROL AND SPRUNG A TRAP ON...
US Debt Hits $39 Trillion, Ignored by Leaders
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, "total [US] federal debt surged past $39 trillion, or 125% of GDP... Despite the federal government's fiscal time bomb, the US Congress and the President remain with...
Jerusalem Drives Escalation, Trump’s Words Irrelevant
Yesterday, Trump said: "we consider winding down our great Military efforts." But today, Israeli Defense Minister Katz said: "the intensity of [the joint] attacks ... against [Iran]... will increase significantly." FORGET WHAT TRUMP SAYS, THE ORDERS COME FROM JERUSALEM. https://t.co/PChGC7kGAg
Money Supply Growth Exceeds Target, Fuelling Pakistan Inflation
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan's inflation is 7.0%/yr. Pak's money supply (M3) is growing at 15.1%/yr. That’s above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.5%/yr-13.5%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Pakistan's inflation target of 5%/yr-7%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY. https://t.co/x28UBeLyKl
Modi’s Calm Highlights India’s Strategic Autonomy Advantage
While the US and Israel escalate, Modi plays it cool. INDIA'S STRATEGIC AUTONOMY = A WINNING HAND. https://t.co/T87Vj30GN9
Households Bear Cost as War Spikes Prices
So far, the US economy has remained resilient in the face of rising oil prices from the US-Israeli war on Iran. But the REAL LOSER has been AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS. The price of gasoline, food and electricity are SOARING. TRUMP’S WAR = AFFORDABILITY PROBLEMS....
Brazil Rejects US Critical Minerals Deal Amid Trump Tensions
Brazil is now RESISTING a critical minerals agreement with the US. FORGET THE ART OF THE DEAL. TRUMP = MASTERCLASS AT MAKING ENEMIES. https://t.co/jmtqeFKoVb
China Onshore Stocks Crowned Top Asset Amid Conflict
With the onset of the US-Israeli attack on Iran, my good friend Chris Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, believes China’s onshore stocks are the top assets. CHINA = WINNER.
US‑Israeli War Triggers Asia‑wide Economic Shock
From fuel rationing in Sri Lanka to restaurant closures in India, flight cancellations in Thailand, and food and fertilizer shocks across Asia -- the ripple effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran are global. THE US-ISRAELI WAR'S COLLATERAL DAMAGE IS MASSIVE. https://t.co/jD1WHbQj6T
Trump Declares Victory While Troops Surge to Gulf
Trump claims that the US has “won” the war, and that Iran is “finished.” IF WE WON THE WAR, WHY ARE WE RUSHING THOUSANDS OF US TROOPS TO THE GULF? TRUMP = DELUSIONAL. https://t.co/g5aB73R1CU
Pentagon Seeks $200B for Iran War, Outspending Ukraine Aid
The Pentagon is requesting $200 BILLION to fund the Iran war. THIS IS BIG BUCKS. For context, Congress has only approved $188 BILLION to support the US proxy war in Ukraine. WAR = A MASSIVE TAX ON AMERICANS. https://t.co/nlL85D8hEN
Over 1,000 Lebanese Killed in Israeli Airstrikes
ISRAEL CONTINUES ITS REIGN OF TERROR IN LEBANON. Since March 2nd, Lebanon’s Health Ministry reports that at least 1,021 Lebanese have been killed by Israeli airstrikes. https://t.co/n95JS2F8UB
Iranian Strikes Inflict $800 Million Damage on U.S. Bases
The BBC reports that Iranian counter-attacks on US military bases in the Middle East have caused $800 MILLION in damage. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN IS COSTING AMERICANS AN ARM AND A LEG. https://t.co/hxarqU3UlU
Export Ban Would Cripple US Production, Swell Inventories
Oil expert Stephen Schork on the potential US oil export ban: "An export ban would be catastrophic for US oil production bc. all it would do is pent up more supply here in the US of oil we don't necessarily use......
Melenchon Defends Iran's Right to Self‑defense
French LFI Party Leader @JLMelenchon on Iran's RESPONSE to US-Israeli attacks: “Iran is exercising its legitimate right to defend its sovereignty, its people, and its resources, after being subjected to blatant aggression.” https://t.co/22z0UUDxgo
Brent Prices Signal Ongoing Iran Conflict, WTI Lags
Oil expert Stephen Schork on Brent & WTI prices & the war in Iran: "[The WTI contract] is the hope market. The Brent market is the real market that is pricing the real events going on, and that blowup [Brent...
Middle East War Triggers Unprecedented Global Oil Supply Disruption
The International Energy Agency in Paris reports “the war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” TRUMP & NETANYAHU'S WAR PLANNERS -- NOT THE SHARPEST KNIVES IN THE DRAWER --...
Turkey Blames Israel as Primary Cause of Middle East Wars
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel is the “primary cause” of wars in the Middle East. He said that Israel is pushing the region into an “unprecedented crisis”. https://t.co/MO46l8Agto
Washington Rejects Debt Brake, Fuels Fiscal Insanity
As Dave Walker, former Comptroller General of the US, and I wrote in @FortuneMagazine, Washington rejected a Swiss-style “debt brake” earlier this week. NO DEBT BRAKE = FISCAL INSANITY. https://t.co/Tw28jA4nUE
US‑Israeli Strikes on Iran Risk Spiraling Out of Control
Former British Diplomat Alastair Crooke on US-Israeli attacks on Iran: "The wheels are coming off this whole thing. It's spiraling really out of control. And it increased enormously with the [recent] attack on the Iranian South Pars gas field... That was...
Erdoğan Warns Against Reviving Century‑old Bloodshed
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: President Erdoğan warned that “if we allow the dirty and bloody scenarios written a century ago to be staged again today, neither we nor those acting as willing or unwilling actors in this play can bear the burden.”...
Turkey Warns Israel Expanding Occupation to Lebanon
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Israel has begun to extend its “occupation and destruction policy” from Gaza to Lebanon. He urged the international community to act against Israel's “expansionism” & called for a “just and dignified peace” with Palestinians....
Oil Backwardation Signals Spot Prices Outpacing Futures
My latest w/ @janetonthemoney on @SIRIUSXM 132 on oil: “Oil is in a backwardation, with the spot price being quite a bit higher than the forward prices... The futures oil markets are not thinking the way I am. The futures markets...
China's Central Bank Boosts Gold Reserves in February
The People’s Bank of China added another ton of gold to its war chest in February. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/NQFzVWhA4P