Turkey's FM Blames Israel‑Cyprus Pact, Denies Similarity
#TurkeyWatch 🇹🇷: When Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan recently accused Israel of “joining forces with the Republic of Cyprus to form a military alliance against Muslim countries,” he concluded by flatly stating: “we are not like Israel.” https://t.co/dKKBHx2aiY
US Weakens, China and Russia Gain Power Post‑War
My view on the outcome of the US-Israeli war on Iran w/ @MarioNawfal: "In the Great Geopolitical Game, one great power is going to become weaker: the United States. And two great powers are going to become stronger: China and Russia."...
Hormuz Traffic Normalization Odds Plunge to 23%
According to Polymarket, the probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by the end of April is FALLING LIKE A STONE. It is now 23%. TRUMP = A PRESIDENT OF FOREVER WARS. https://t.co/nt979qNG1g
Prabowo Praises Putin for Oil Aid Amid Iran War
My take on Indonesian President Prabowo’s statement on Putin: @MarioNawfal: “According to Prabowo, Putin is playing a positive role in the Iranian war affair because he is supplying countries like Indonesia with oil and gas." https://t.co/wGOTQHe1fg
Argentina Ranks Fifth Most Miserable; Milei's Inflation Promises Fail
#ARGWatch🇦🇷: In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Argentina ranks as the FIFTH MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY IN THE WORLD. Just as I've predicted since day 1, MILEI HAS FAILED TO CRUSH INFLATION. https://t.co/2Zjd0vmAun
Trump's Tariffs Failed to Generate Significant Revenue
My good friend Chris Wood on the failure of Pres. Trump's tariffs to produce a massive increase in government revenue: "Evidence of fiscal improvement as a result of the surge in tariff revenues over the past year remains minimal." TRUMP = FALSE...
Afghan War Costs $6.5T—Over Four Times Social Security
My take on the cost of the war on Iran on @MarioNawfal: "For context, the Afghan war cost is $6.5T. That is 4.3 times higher than the largest single line item in the US Federal budget, Social Security.” WARS ARE EXPENSIVE. https://t.co/C98QPx7rM4
IDF Destroys Lebanese Cemetery, Denying Rest to the Dead
A cemetery in Marjayoun, Lebanon, has been destroyed by the Israeli defense forces (IDF). WITH THE ISRAELI REIGN OF TERROR IN LEBANON, NOT EVEN THE DEAD CAN REST IN PEACE. https://t.co/pWceUAOgJZ
Propose Hormuz Convention to Regulate and Tax Shipping
My take on the Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz on @MarioNawfal: "Ideally, there should be something like the Montreux Convention of 1936 that settled the Dardanelles and allowed Turkey to manage the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles and charge fees...
Saudi Deficit Swells, Turning Kingdom Into Eurodollar Drain
Saudi Arabia's deficit widened to $25.28 billion in Q4 2025. Instead of being a source of the petrodollars, the kingdom has become a drain on the eurodollar system. https://t.co/JkziRznkyx
North Korea Fires Missiles at Japan, Confirming Hanke’s Theory
North Korea has launched multiple ballistic missiles off its East coast in the direction of Japan. Just more confirmation of Hanke's Schoolboy Theory of History: It's just one damn thing after another. https://t.co/eoHl6bkCJU
Delta Faces $2.5B Jet Fuel Bill Amid Price Surge
Due to fuel prices DOUBLING in the past month, Delta Airlines will spend an extra $2.5 BILLION on jet fuel this quarter. AIRLINES SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/KgseZIFAPm
U.S. Debt Set to Spike to 142% of GDP
THE U.S. NEEDS A DEBT BRAKE. The IMF estimates that the United States’ public debt will surge from 124% of GDP in 2025 to 142% by 2031. USA = ECONOMIC STORM CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON. https://t.co/ZB6XlfUvlR
OMB Chief Admits No Clue on Iran War Cost
My view on the biggest news of the week in @MarioNawfal: “The Director of US Office and Management and Budget Russell Vought testified that, he had no idea what the war with Iran was going to cost. Amazing, Trump goes to...
US Spends $65 Bn Annually on Overseas Bases
According to the Overseas Base Alignment and Closure Coalition, it costs the US $65bn/yr to build and maintain its overseas military bases. US DEFENSE SPENDING = MASSIVE BURDEN ON US TAXPAYERS. https://t.co/YnxMmddUOc
Iran Conflict Trims Global 2026 Growth to 3.1%
GLOBAL GROWTH IS LOSING STEAM. Before the Iran war, forecasts pointed to 3.4% growth in 2026. Now, the IMF has slashed its projections to just 3.1%. THE US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = MAJOR LONG-TERM DAMAGE. https://t.co/Q2UvmWSb0o
AI Hype Fuels Overinvestment, Warns Apollo President
Apollo President Jim Zelter sends up a warning flag to AI investors. We’ve been to this rodeo before. NEW TECHNOLOGY = MASSIVE HYPE = MASSIVE OVERINVESTMENT. I agree. As I told @BusinessInsider in Feb., AI is "overhyped and potentially dangerous." https://t.co/47BZox90pq
Brazil's High Money Growth Fuels Inflation Above Target
Brazil's March inflation is 4.14%/yr. That's ABOVE its 3%/yr inflation target. Brazil’s M4 is growing at 9.4%/yr. That is ABOVE Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of 7.1%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its 3%/yr inflation target. INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Iran Tightens Hormuz Control as Trump Threatens Bombing
With the US refusing to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has responded. Iran will now maintain “strict control” over the Strait. With that, Trump has thrown more fuel on the fire: “We’ll have to start dropping bombs again.” https://t.co/ZrwqjtoLFw
Trump's Second Term Marked by Unprecedented Global Strikes
Trump’s second term has been one of the most warlike of any US presidency in living memory. In the first year, he ordered strikes on Iran, Venezuela, Yemen, Syria, Nigeria, Somalia, and Iraq, as well as dozens of hits on boats...
Urea Prices Jump 87% as Middle East Supplies Halt
Fertilizer flows from the Middle East remain blocked. Urea fertilizer prices have SURGED 87% YTD to $720 per ton, the highest level in nearly 3 years. FARMERS SHOULD SEND A BILL FOR DAMAGES TO TRUMP AND NETANYAHU. https://t.co/8GGpcsbTMb
Iranian Rial Gains 11% Amid US‑Israeli Conflict, Media Silent
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has appreciated by 11% against the USD. THE WESTERN MEDIA CONTINUES TO REMAIN SILENT ON THIS INCONVENIENT FACT. https://t.co/WOududM6s7
War on Iran Pushes US Gas Prices Above $4 per Gallon
Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, prices at the pump have JUMPED by $1.15. The national US average just hit $4.13/gallon. US-ISRAELI WAR ON IRAN = CREATING AMERICAN PAIN AT THE PUMP. https://t.co/2D7sRK3hnJ
Israel Hits UNESCO Tyre Site, 13 Killed Before Ceasefire
Just before the ceasefire went into effect, Israel reportedly struck a residential area in the centuries-old city and UNESCO World Heritage Site, Tyre, Lebanon. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports that THIRTEEN Lebanese were killed in the strikes. https://t.co/rpD9zsWiEK
Gulf Oil Damage Means Two-Year Recovery Even if Strait Reopens
My view on @cgtnamerica on the long-term impacts of the Strait of Hormuz closure: "The fallout from the Gulf situation will cast its shadow for a while. 80 petroleum & refining facilities have been damaged. Even if the Strait opens tomorrow,...
Venezuela Tops Misery Index: Hyperinflation, Unemployment Crisis
In Hanke's 2025 Annual Misery Index, Venezuela ranks as THE WORLD’S MOST MISERABLE COUNTRY. This is thanks to 35.1% unemployment, 475.3%/yr inflation, a 9.4% bank-lending rate & a 1.6% contraction of real GDP/capita. It’s time for VNZ to DUMP the bolivar &...
US Debt Limits Expose Global Economic Fragility
On @cgtnamerica, I explain the fragility facing the global economy: "Large economies like the US have been running large deficits and accumulating debt. There's very little headroom. They've put themselves in a corner. And the markets aren’t pricing in the real...
March US Inflation Stems From Money Supply, Not Oil
March's US CPI inflation (3.3%/yr) wasn't the result of higher oil prices. It occurred because the money supply was accelerating prior to the Iranian war. The 3-month annualized inflation rate in Feb. was exactly equal to March's 3.3%/yr. https://t.co/YBHCbqfLiV
Pentagon Partners with Automakers to Boost Weapons Output
The WSJ reports that Pentagon officials have held talks with Ford, GE Aerospace, Oshkosh, and General Motors to INCREASE production of munitions and weapons. In the US, the military-industrial complex runs the show. https://t.co/0uzkM2NGmE
Inflation Already Embedded, Set to Accelerate Post‑War
My view in @FortuneMagazine on how inflation was ALREADY BAKED INTO THE CAKE: “Inflation was accelerating before the war, and it will keep accelerating after the war’s over and oil prices fall.” https://t.co/40tVOVEUt1
World Bank Mulls $2B Loan as Argentina Eyes Dollarization
#ArgentinaWatch 🇦🇷: The World Bank is considering loaning Argentina up to $2B to help refinance its debt. Stuck with junk-rated bonds, Argentina is leaning on multilateral development banks for finance. IT'S TIME FOR THE WORLD’S BIGGEST DEADBEAT TO DITCH THE PESO AND...
Rising Jet Fuel Spurs $50‑$60 Baggage Fees
As jet-fuel costs surge, airlines are raising baggage fees across the board. Passengers are now paying $50–$60+ just to check a bag. AIRLINE PASSENGERS ARE PAYING A TRUMP-NETANYAHU WAR TAX. https://t.co/TvTtZiSAm0
Sudan Ranks Second Most Miserable Due to Soaring Unemployment
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Sudan ranks as the SECOND MOST MISERABLE country in the world. SKY-HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT = ECONOMIC MISERY. https://t.co/6zw2PMVR8o
Pakistan's Military Government Brokers Abroad, Begs at Home
#PakWatch🇵🇰: Pakistan’s military-led government plays global broker but can’t fix its own economy. Pak has a STUNNING 25 IMF bailouts since 1950. PAK ONLY KNOWS HOW TO DO ONE THING WELL = PASS THE BEGGING BOWL. https://t.co/UEnCmuPatw
Rupee Weakness Drops India to Sixth in Global GDP Rankings
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: When measured in dollar terms, India falls from 4th to 6th in global GDP rankings. This slip can be laid at the rupee's doorstep. With the rupee down ~11% in FY26, India’s GDP is smaller in dollar terms. India...
Turkey Ranks Third in Misery Due to Soaring Borrowing Costs
In Hanke’s 2025 Annual Misery Index, Turkey ranks as the THIRD MOST MISERABLE country in the world. SKY-HIGH BORROWING COSTS = ECONOMIC MISERY. https://t.co/w0bnKkmBqM
US‑Israeli Iran Conflict Could Rival COVID’s Economic Fallout
Bloomberg reports that Indian officials say that the US-Israeli war on Iran could be as DISRUPTIVE as the COVID pandemic, and the damage to the global economy will LAST FOR YEARS. I agree. https://t.co/czPLAmZmrb
China Triples Export Controls, Turns Supply Chains Into Leverage
In a counterattack to America’s aggressive protectionist measures, China has nearly TRIPLED its use of export controls in the last 5 years. Beijing is turning its supply-chain dominance into geopolitical leverage. CHINA'S MESSAGE = IF YOU ATTACK US, WE WILL COUNTERATTACK....
US Sanctions Backfire, China Gains One‑Third of Iran Trade
In 1995, China accounted for virtually ZERO of Iran's trade. Today, it accounts for 1/3. Ill-advised US sanctions on Iran have BACKFIRED. They’ve allowed China to increase its sphere of influence. https://t.co/JUoFF3ACJR
Venezuela Still Holds World's Highest Inflation at 547%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 547.4%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA. https://t.co/AcOxOkkl80
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Could Trigger 10M B/D Oil Shortfall
Due to the logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Wood Mackenzie estimates global markets could be short ~10M b/d. That’s roughly the scale of the demand collapse during the first year of the Covid pandemic. THE WORLD IS FACING A...
US Inflation Just Begun: The Genie Won’t Return
My view in @FortuneMagazine on how US inflation is JUST GETTING STARTED: “It’s at the point now where the inflation genie is clearly out of the bottle and won’t be put back in anytime soon.” https://t.co/40tVOVEUt1
Majority of Americans Deem Iran War Unjustified
According to a new Ipsos poll, over half of Americans say the decision to take military action in Iran has not been worth it. THE US PUBLIC IS TURNING ON THE WAR PRESIDENT. https://t.co/N4FrgolqXX
Argentina's Soaring Inflation Mirrors Runaway Money Supply Growth
Argentina’s inflation comes in at a RED HOT 32.6%/yr. NO SURPRISE. Argentina’s money supply is growing at 31.8%/yr. That's WELL ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 14.8%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its de-facto 10%/yr inflation target. INFLATION = MILEI'S ACHILLES HEEL. https://t.co/JvIDAwzeSe
Mearsheimer: US Losing Iran War, Needs Immediate Exit
Prof. John Mearsheimer on America's desperate search for an exit from its war on Iran. "The [US] is not in the driver's seat. [Iran] is in the driver's seat. We had these negotiations because America wanted them...We recognize we're losing the...
UK Maintains 117 Overseas Bases, Echoing Empire Legacy
The UK has an ASTOUNDING 117 foreign military bases. They are little more than the residue of the British empire, and an invitation to make trouble. https://t.co/8sFKF1MJcM
China’s Renewable Growth Dwarfs World, Contradicting Trump’s Claim
At the World Economic Forum, Trump claimed China makes renewable equipment but doesn’t use it. Reality: Over the past few years, China’s growth in wind and solar usage has exceeded the rest of the world COMBINED. TRUMP'S RHETORIC RARELY MATCHES REALITY. https://t.co/SGRBqnFkj6
Turkey's Loose Money Policy Drives Lira to Record Low
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: The lira hit a record low of 44.7/USD — down 17% over the past year. Turkey's M3 is growing at 39.9%/yr, well above Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 23.4%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting Turkey’s inflation target. TURKEY’S MONETARY POLICY IS...
US Crude Inventories Drop, First Since Iran Conflict
Today, the EIA released data on crude oil inventories held by US firms. Since the first time since the US-Israeli war on Iran began, inventories have declined. STAY LONG OIL. https://t.co/sc7GCwRvTK
Viva Energy Refinery Fire Underscores Relentless Chain of Crises
Today, a MASSIVE fire broke out at Viva Energy’s oil refinery near Melbourne, Australia Just more confirmation of Hanke’s School Boy’s Theory of History: It’s just one damn thing after another. https://t.co/WsVZQfMT8v