Real Rates Peak; Bond Market Plunge Signals Looming Policy Shift
The 2-year real interest rate has now climbed to its highest level since the Trump administration took office. At the same time, we are living through the deepest and longest drawdown in the history of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index. We are moving in the wrong direction and I doubt Scott Bessent is thrilled about either development. This is the exact opposite of inflating your way out of a debt problem. Yet investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility of another rate hike. I suspect policymakers will be forced to address that reality. When they do, the implications for hard assets could be substantial. https://t.co/CErNysNiBQ
Silver Miners Poised for Breakout on Record Margins
Silver miners relative to gold miners appear to be on the verge of a significant breakout. It doesn’t take a mathematician to recognize what happens when a business is selling metal for $75/oz while production costs remain closer to $15–20/oz. These are...
Timing Breakouts Beats Waiting in Brazilian Small Caps
Brazilian small caps. This chart reminds me of a great quote from Paul Tudor Jones: “The key to being successful is to be able to time the breakout, not just wait for it.” https://t.co/NGXxI4M2i4 https://t.co/VehCgTuUo7
Quarter of US Debt Matures Amid Rising Yields
With yields surging recently: Here is a reminder that more than a quarter of all US federal debt will mature over the next 12 months. The clock is ticking, and this is likely to become a central focus for policymakers in the...
Core PPI Spikes; Money Supply Growth Remains Hidden Driver
Largest year over year increase in Core PPI in five years. That excludes food, energy, and trade. You know what they can’t strip out? Money supply growth. https://t.co/WYpCOQS2Vv H/t @lisaabramowicz1 https://t.co/BpYJcanI4S
Liquidity Flood, Not War, Drives Recent Inflation Surge
Global money supply surged by $17T in the last 2 years. War is not the only driver of inflation. Policymakers have been pouring liquidity into the system the entire time. https://t.co/EMI08NkIDG https://t.co/kavJQEnfrx
Silver Surges as Demand Outpaces Constrained Supply
Oops. I was told the silver bubble burst two months ago and that it was never coming back. That view failed to understand a simple reality: Commodities never peak when structural demand is rising while both current and future supply remain heavily constrained. Classic...
Dollar Weakening Signals Imminent Rate Cuts and Market Shift
The recent behavior of the US dollar is increasingly consistent with a market anticipating intervention in the rates market ahead. Lower rates and a weaker dollar are no longer optional policies. They are becoming absolutely essential for the system to function under...
Mining Margins Hit Historic Highs, Heralding Industry Rebirth
Miners are currently seeing the strongest margins in the history of the data. But more importantly: The prior secular cycle was also defined by a long period of sustained, above-average profitability. My view is that we’re likely to see that again. What we’re...
Copper's Record Highs Yet Cheap vs Gold—Brief Rally Likely
It’s wild to see copper hitting record highs while still trading near historical lows when priced in gold terms. The copper-to-gold ratio remains nearly 80% below its 2006 peak. More importantly: Periods where copper became this cheap relative to gold have historically not...
Copper Hits Record, Enters New Price‑Discovery Regime
Copper officially closed at record weekly prices today. This increasingly looks like the beginning of a true price-discovery phase for the metal. It reminds me of gold once it finally cleared the $2,000/oz level and the market began adjusting to a completely...
Low‑Cost Silver Miner Beats Tech Margins Amid $80 Spot
Silver back above $80/oz. If you like that, you must love a miner producing ounces below $15. Mining margins today are better than any tech company. Game on. https://t.co/FOdI99FmDd https://t.co/sStucYaSb3
China's Dip‑buying Fuels Emerging Global Gold Rush
China continues to buy the dip in gold. A global gold rush is unfolding right in front of our eyes. https://t.co/mQgTbFf90L https://t.co/QRErTYJHa9
Silver Surge Signals New Era of Higher Metal Prices
What a move in silver. Game on. We are in a structurally higher metal price environment driven by decades of underinvestment, constrained supply growth, and a global macro environment that continues to favor hard assets. Markets are still very slow to fully...
Miners Undervalued; Operating Leverage Drives Upside
Early breakout in the miners. Amazes me how the miners-to-gold ratio still sits at historically undervalued levels. This move is likely to accelerate to the upside. Operating leverage in mining companies during a secular cycle is one of the most powerful dynamics in...