Inflation Stems From Tight Supply, Capex Still Low
This chart gets to the heart of today’s inflation problem: Constrained supply. The only real solution starts with a surge in capital investment from commodity producers. With capex still near cycle lows, there’s little chance of meaningful new supply hitting the market anytime soon. For investors, that’s a clear message — the resource cycle is still in its early innings. Wake me up when capex is back at peak levels. https://t.co/JqQZyjpW4Z
Luxury Brand Slumps Signal Stagflation Ahead
This may have flown under the radar: Keep an eye on luxury brands starting to report weaker results. They’re often a leading indicator of what’s coming for the broader consumer. The current environment is deeply stagflationary. https://t.co/53453IX0Fd https://t.co/qvZM0cAjOO
Gold Miners Lead Early Bull Cycle Awareness Phase
Gold miners are leading the market once again. Since January 2025, their performance has far outpaced every other sector. This could mark one of the most important comebacks in mining history. So where are we in the bull cycle? I would argue we are...
Brazil Stocks Enter Secular Bull, Not Just Rally
Brazilian equities near record inflows. The real at its strongest level in two years. First I was told this wasn’t possible. Now I’ll hear it’s not sustainable. Nothing moves in a straight line, but don’t confuse a bear market rally with the start of...
Iran Conflict Boosts Copper Demand Amid Chile Production Dip
Chile — the Saudi Arabia of copper — is already seeing production roll over before any 2nd-order war effects. The implications of the Iran conflict for the mining industry are being underappreciated, despite the severity of the situation. This dynamic is...
Dollar Reversal Signals Enduring Weak‑dollar Era
The magnitude of the reversal in the dollar may be the most important move we saw this week. Welcome to a weaker-dollar world. Upside moves are likely to be limited and short-lived, with a persistent pull back to the downside like a...
Core Inflation Hides the True Rise in Living Costs
Ouch…. Government inflation data *excluding* food and energy. Now imagine what the real number looks like. https://t.co/TK6XDWuZDb
Brazilian Real Leads Global Gains, Heralding New LatAm Cycle
The Brazilian real is outperforming every major currency in the world year to date. I was told this could never happen — but here we are. Welcome to a new LatAm cycle, folks. Exciting times ahead for this region. https://t.co/tvtFhSgOxD https://t.co/6dbPKm7I3L
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
Tech Firms Skip Middle East, Boost Latin America Data Hubs
Outstanding day for LatAm today. War ending or not… one thing seems highly likely: None of the major tech companies will go out of their way to allocate capital toward building new data centers or large-scale facilities in the Middle East anytime...
China Boosts Gold Reserves, Heralding Deglobalization Shift
Nothing to see here. China adds to its gold reserves. The deglobalization toothpaste is already out of the tube — and the rush into neutral assets is only just beginning. https://t.co/oXGnVgwKfX https://t.co/VQE5YC3lrf
Copper Valued at 4% of Global Debt, Highly Undervalued
Very intriguing chart. The copper market sits at roughly 4% of global debt — still multiples below prior peaks. A simple way to frame just how undervalued the metal is relative to today’s macro imbalances. Now layer in the structural demand tailwinds. Game on. https://t.co/wv1i1hARmY
Brazilian Stocks Remain Deeply Undervalued Compared to Global Markets
What an outstanding chart from my friend @RonStoeferle Brazilian equities remain historically undervalued particularly relative to global equities. Some of my favorite LatAm companies here: https://t.co/0uJrl7UKoA https://t.co/GGfYESXC0g
Stagflation, Debt Surge Prompt Rate Cuts, Boost Real Assets
Ladies and gentlemen: Stagflation at record debt levels. Now imagine being forced to cut rates as inflation reaccelerates. Real assets are about to get very interesting. https://t.co/KMgGEdt8ru https://t.co/hbpbojd6Yg
Processing Capacity, Not Discovery, Limits Rare‑Earth Gains
When it comes to speaking with generalist investors about the mining industry, nothing reveals the level of understanding more than the overwhelming focus on minerals that are, in reality, very small markets. Rare earths are indeed critical metals, but they remain...
