Embrace Latin America Pullback in Emerging Bull Market
Not a day to stay on the sidelines. Aside from gold: I welcome this pullback in Latin American stocks. Looks like a correction within the early innings of a structural bull market in emerging markets. https://t.co/PqNvdOT6AB https://t.co/nL6e7JkoCR
Early Shift: Commodities Outsize Financial Assets Importance
It’s only appropriate to revisit this chart after the recent move in markets. And yes… We’re still in the early innings of a regime shift from financial assets to hard assets. The reality is simple: Commodity markets play a critical role, yet their size...
Copper Holds Breakout Support, Poised for Higher Gains
Copper has shown remarkable resilience despite the broader volatility across commodities. The metal precisely retested its breakout level, which now appears to be holding as strong support. In my view, this sets the stage for the next move higher. Both the technical and...
Gold Is a Buying Opportunity, Says Gundlach
Gold: time to step in. Gundlach shares the same view. Two ideas I like here: https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/IXZHUSswpm
Valuation Hits Multi-Year Low After Three-Year Rise
“Cheapest valuation in years” … in 3 years Notice the chart “history” as well. https://t.co/2WLNIb2E8B
Brazilian Stocks Surge, Early Thesis Underestimated
While all eyes were on metals: Brazilian stocks had an outstanding move today. At times, Brazilian equities feel like a beach ball being held underwater — the pressure keeps building. We’re still in the very early stages of this thesis, in my view. What’s...
Precious Metals Rally, Juniors Lead; Stay Ready
Very encouraging move in precious metals off the lows. Silver and copper are leading, with juniors outperforming seniors and explorers showing strong upside today. That said — the day and week are far from over. After leaning optimistic recently, some caution is warranted...
Buy the Dip at Oversold Levels, Not Exact Bottom
This meme never gets old. You never know the exact bottom — and it’s not worth having the hubris to think you do. I’ll keep scaling in at what I see as cheap, historically oversold levels. No need to follow my approach —...
Gold's Drop Signals Tight Policy, Not Liquidations
Seeing a narrative going around that gold is selling off because everyone is getting liquidated. Please. If that were the case, people would be selling stocks first. Gold is leading the downside. To me, this still looks like a market pricing in an extremely...
New Spending Adds Debt, Not Supplemental Funding
To be clear: There is nothing “supplemental” here. It’s incremental debt on top of an already large deficit. https://t.co/0Rg6IfCmHu
Rising Rates Push US Toward Gold Amid War Funding
Fascinating how the surge in interest rates is driving these decisions. The US will have to address this. It’s the only way it can realistically afford a war in the first place. Inflation will be unleashed. Rates will be capped. Time to step into gold,...
Oil Shock Drives Inflation Spike, Interest Costs Hit 5% GDP
Inflation surges due to oil shocks. None of the prior episodes had U.S. interest payments reach 5% of GDP. None. Expect inflation to surge again, with the Fed having to justify a rate cut. That is certainly not priced in markets today. https://t.co/W8K6vFstbd Great chart from...
Extreme Debt Limits Growth: Only One Indicator Can Rise
When government and private debt are this extreme, only one of these lines can rise. …... not the red one. https://t.co/YjKShRTMiy https://t.co/mOHRjorVpT
Silver's Historic Selloff Defies Strong Fundamentals
The selloff in silver over the past 15 days has been one of the most extreme moves we’ve seen in history. Only two other episodes are comparable: One marked a major peak, the other a major bottom. Personally, I have never seen a...
Rising Yields Threaten US Economy More Than Iran Conflict
Yields surging are a far more existential threat than Iran at this point. No — this is not coming from a political angle. The US cannot afford this war. ▪️Interest payments nearing ~5% of GDP ▪️Military spending ramping up ▪️Trade deficits worsening as...
US Debt Hits $39 Trillion; Hard Assets Scarce
US federal debt now officially reached $39 trillion. None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/9uWJASUd8q https://t.co/EjSvdcj9Gj
Oil Price Spikes Historically Signal Upcoming Recessions
This is a remarkable chart. Oil surges like the one we’ve seen recently have consistently preceded recessions. Chart by @thierryborgeat https://t.co/GpMNhNl06Y
Gas Prices Surge While Food Inflation Still Lags
An update on a critical chart: Gasoline prices continue to climb, but attention should now shift to food prices, which have yet to follow. Expect policymakers to call it transitory again, even as resource prices — despite volatility — remain elevated by...
US Debt Costs, Not Iran, Pose Existential Threat
The biggest issue the US is dealing with right now isn’t Iran — it’s the cost of its own debt. Plain and simple: The government can’t afford a war at this stage, and higher interest rates are becoming an existential threat. https://t.co/mHVMQJMS82 https://t.co/yW1dmgDC7i
Oil’s Gold Ratio Stagnates, Signaling Higher Resource Prices
Despite the recent rally, oil priced in gold has barely budged. That puts into perspective how undervalued oil may still be. And no, this is not negative for gold. If anything, it reinforces the idea that we are entering an era of structurally...
Investment-Grade Bonds Break Support, Signaling Market Stress
Investment-grade bonds just broke down from a 3-year support. These are early signs of stress in the bond market. Keep in mind that junk bonds are also trading well below their 200-day moving average now. Latest presentation: https://t.co/gDlMFjFGml https://t.co/UUDCngoUN8
Brazilian Stock Pullbacks Offer Secular Commodity Play
Pullbacks in Brazilian equities are opportunities, in my view. And no — this isn’t just an energy trade. It’s a derivative of a weakening dollar and a broader commodity bull market. I love a secular thesis. The same applies to metals and mining. H/t to...
Consistency and Quality: The Core Success Formula
Consistency and a focus on quality of work are the name of the game. https://t.co/yOU2aB432q https://t.co/VJ6aBKALLo
South America: Untapped Resources Fuel Historic Transformation
South America: A resource-rich and still largely unexplored region undergoing one of the most significant political and economic transformations in its history. https://t.co/jXGUJd5RMi https://t.co/uc8dlJv1f5
Colombia's Top Energy Stock Near 4-Year High
Game on. Another strong rally in Colombia’s largest energy producer. Now approaching 4-year highs. Here are a few other similar setups: https://t.co/YcLcY6et8c https://t.co/3oWP9oWMkn
Energy Stocks Poised for Long-Term Surge, Not Short-Term Fluke
Energy stocks are leading the market again, yet many investors still think this is just a short-term trend. It’s not. Here is an important reminder: Most oil companies are generating free cash flow near historical highs with WTI above $80. This likely marks the...
Canadian Dollar Poised to Outperform Amid Heavy Shorts
The reality is: If you like commodities, you should also appreciate resource-rich economies — and their currencies. Canadian “peso” poised to outperform while it remains one of the most heavily shorted currencies in the world today. You don’t need to tell me...
Dollar's Downtrend Persists; Rallies Likely Temporary
The long-term outlook for the US dollar hasn’t changed. We remain in a major downtrend — something worth remembering during brief rallies like the one we just saw. The dollar is still sitting at a critical level, and these bouts of strength...
Hard Assets Rally as War Ends, Metals Lead
“Precious metals surge as the war ends.” Bizarre, to say the least. Very solid move in miners and Latin American stocks today. Also worth noting: Oil and gas equities remain remarkably resilient despite the volatility in energy prices. None of us own enough hard...
Silver Nears $90 as Capital Rotates Through Metals
Silver is approaching $90 again — this time from a much more oversold level. Notice what’s happening across the commodity complex: Capital keeps rotating from one resource to another. While the market’s attention is fixated on the current flavor of the month...
Energy Stocks Stay Resilient Amid Wild Oil Swing
Wild. A $35 swing in oil prices in one day. Smells fishy... Oil and gas stocks held up remarkably well despite all this. A reminder that silver experienced similar volatility and is now settling at levels well above any point in...
Brazil's Market Near Historic Lows, Poised for Capital Influx
Brazil’s CAPE ratio is approaching one of the most undervalued levels in its history. The Brazilian equity market is nearly as cheap as it was at major historical bottoms — the early 2000s and the political crisis of 2015–16. This is a...
Inflationary Assets Surge; Food Price Spikes May Spark Unrest
$105/bbl A few months ago many said this would never happen. Never bet against inflationary assets in an inflationary era. Deglobalization is structural no cyclical. Watch food prices next. In a world of extreme inequality, with a Fed that needs lower rates to keep...
Fed Rate Cuts Ahead Spark Explosive Metals Rally
Metals and miners have recently pulled back as investors suddenly think the Fed won’t be as dovish. Wait until they realize the policymakers are cornered into cutting rates regardless of inflation accelerating, just to keep the government’s debt affordable. That’s an explosive...
VC Index Drop Signals Broad Interest Rate Decline
The Venture Capital Index is now down more than 30% from its peak. This reinforces the idea that the entire interest rate curve may be headed materially lower, in my view. Yes — both short and long end of the curve. Also, separately: Just...
Energy Fundamentals Outweigh Geopolitics as US Capex Plummets
Iran/US experts are everywhere today... Here is a friendly reminder that the case for energy is rooted in structural forces — not short-term geopolitical events. US energy sector capex, adjusted for GDP, is still down nearly 80% from prior peaks. Investors obsess...
Global Rotation From US Assets to Rest of World Begins
The 15+ year breakout is sending a very clear message: The global rotation out of US-based assets and into the rest of the world has officially begun, in my view. New macro presentation is out: https://t.co/GY7oyQol42 https://t.co/rypcHQGugR
Metals Rally yet to Spark Inflation, History Warns
A very compelling chart. The recent rally in metals and mining has not yet evolved into a material inflationary impulse, in my view. Markets still seem to be dismissing that possibility — even though history suggests otherwise. https://t.co/FhHZJUOI67