Stagflation Signals Policymakers May Look Through Inflation
Today’s ISM report was yet another very stagflationary report. Prices paid spiked to 3-year highs, while employment fell to 2-year lows. How will policymakers respond if this persists? They will ease into weakness and look through inflation. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ObkzsVTJFG
Rising Gas Prices Spark Imminent Food Inflation Wave
This is a concerning chart but grounded in reality. The surge in gasoline prices is likely leading commodity grains. The next wave of food inflation is already here. https://t.co/jC5yXTTjzf https://t.co/ZOCR2jO7nt
Natural Gas Cheap Now, Demand Surge Signals Enduring Shift
Natural gas prices are at one of their cheapest levels in history relative to oil prices. Historically, those dislocations don’t persist when demand is accelerating. And right now, the demand side story for natural gas is quietly becoming one of the strongest...
Corn Rallies as Ag Commodities Chase Energy Price Levels
There goes corn today. Another strong move in agricultural commodities as they continue catching up to energy prices. https://t.co/9xrvHbXgUm https://t.co/v2CK1VmaKr
Fed Clings to Flawed Inflation Metric Amid Rising Prices
The St. Louis Fed now posting Kevin Warsh’s useless inflation metric. That’s how far these guys have to go to justify cutting rates while inflation is picking back up. https://t.co/2DvEMmGuRZ https://t.co/hoSrqX9OFs
Mining Output Surges Sevenfold, Defying Past Skepticism
A new era for the mining industry. Miners are generating roughly 7x what they did at the peak of the last cycle. I’m old enough to remember when this space was considered “uninvestable” by the so-called experts. Game on. https://t.co/ssIdeKrny6 https://t.co/7sVZbz3Dv6
Control Claim Invalid Without Freedom of Navigation
Honest question… How can one claim “complete control” of the Strait when there’s no freedom of navigation? https://t.co/cpQoaPVURy
Argentina's Money Supply Shrinks as Global Credit Bloats
Argentina is the only country where money supply is contracting at a double-digit rate. Meanwhile, the rest of the world continues to expand credit with little to no monetary discipline. None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/7n3N1S2a1W https://t.co/mVU3eZcLRN
Global Rate Divergence Poised to Push Dollar Lower
We are in a new era of global central bank policy divergence. The rest of the world appears to have significantly more room to tighten financial conditions than the US. That divergence is likely to act as a major driver of further...
Fitch: U.S. Debt Levels Exceed Peer AA Nations
"Fitch Warns US Debt Burden Is ‘Far Above’ Other AA Rated Nations" None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/bA3E6txTHG https://t.co/jfpiadGKWT
Fed Independence Lost; Inflation Expectations Spike Amid Rate Dilemma
The Powell saga is a distraction. The Fed’s independence has been gone for a while. To be fair, what did people expect? Inflation is still elevated while debt service is already at unsustainable levels. You either crush the system with high rates, or...
Energy Price Surge Triggers Unexpected Water Shortage
Oops. I was told this could never happen either. Don’t blame it on droughts. This is a second-order effect of the surge in energy prices. https://t.co/ebPms2fHjQ https://t.co/dA0xFI38wY
War and Debt Push Fed Toward Rate Cuts Soon
It’s wild to see markets still pricing in zero Fed rate cuts with this economic index at its worst level in nearly 70 years. I believe we’ll see meaningful cuts over the next two years. Counterintuitively, the war only strengthens the...
Oil Market Imbalance Drives Prices Higher
The oil market is not in equilibrium. ~14 mbd of supply has been disrupted. Inventories are being drawn at an extreme pace. Demand is falling — but not enough. There’s still a gap. This only clears one way: higher prices. Outstanding report by JPM. H/t to @HFI_Research...
San Cristobal Ranks Among Top Global Silver and Zinc Producers
San Cristobal is not only the 4th largest silver mine in the world but also the 8th largest zinc producer. What a beast. https://t.co/wl7Dnx9VnD
US Rig Count Down 34% Signals Looming Oil Shortage
Here is a reminder that well before the war broke out: The number of operating rigs had already fallen by roughly 34% over the prior three years in the most critical US energy basin. That has serious implications for future oil supply,...
Brazil Small Caps Break 15‑Year Resistance, Hidden Opportunity
Brazilian small caps have just poked their head above a 15-year resistance level. This is shaping up to be a major breakout that still remains largely off the radar. Small caps have drastically lagged large cap companies in Brazil, and ignoring them...
Trimmed‑average Inflation: Only Gauge Still Trending Lower.
Yesterday, Kevin Warsh said he favors using trimmed-average inflation measures... Of course he does.... It’s probably the only “inflation” gauge still somehow trending lower. Yep.... I’ll say it again: None of us own enough hard assets. https://t.co/psqdXXGW7Q https://t.co/LS43LWLsQe
War's Energy Surge Signals Higher Prices Ahead
No matter how long you expect the war to last, the chart below doesn’t look like the end of a move. If anything, the setup still appears quite explosive. This marks the beginning of a new regime of structurally higher energy prices,...
Lower Rates Needed to Manage Unmanageable Federal Debt
Hearing Kevin Warsh talk about Fed independence, and watching hard assets sell off on that, feels a lot like the hype around DOGE. Great in theory, but ultimately unrealistic. The reality is that government debt has reached a scale that no brilliant...
Silver Miners Cheap, Cash‑flow Rich Amid Price Resilience
With silver prices proving resilient at these levels, miners are trading at some of the cheapest valuations in their history. These companies are delivering record cash flows with exceptionally high margins. Game on. https://t.co/a2yC5hgWq2 https://t.co/06A0bDqjf9
Energy Prices Set to Floor as Cheap Oil Ends
An important reminder for the weekend: The oil-to-gold ratio remains near historically low levels, and the era of cheap energy is likely coming to an end. It’s hard to imagine countries not becoming far more aggressive in building strategic reserves after the...
Latin America Leads Rebound, Outperforming US Stocks
One of the more important developments over the past few weeks has been the resilience of LatAm’s outperformance relative to US equities. These markets didn’t just hold up well during the selloff — they remained remarkably firm. And in the rebound, they’ve...
S&P's Low Yield, High PE Pushes Investors Toward LatAm
The S&P 500 is offering one of the lowest dividend yields in nearly 150 years. At the same time, it’s trading at one of the richest cyclically adjusted P/E ratios in history. Ask yourself: What’s the actual upside you’re being compensated for at...
Inflation Stems From Tight Supply, Capex Still Low
This chart gets to the heart of today’s inflation problem: Constrained supply. The only real solution starts with a surge in capital investment from commodity producers. With capex still near cycle lows, there’s little chance of meaningful new supply hitting the market...
Luxury Brand Slumps Signal Stagflation Ahead
This may have flown under the radar: Keep an eye on luxury brands starting to report weaker results. They’re often a leading indicator of what’s coming for the broader consumer. The current environment is deeply stagflationary. https://t.co/53453IX0Fd https://t.co/qvZM0cAjOO
Gold Miners Lead Early Bull Cycle Awareness Phase
Gold miners are leading the market once again. Since January 2025, their performance has far outpaced every other sector. This could mark one of the most important comebacks in mining history. So where are we in the bull cycle? I would argue we are...
Brazil Stocks Enter Secular Bull, Not Just Rally
Brazilian equities near record inflows. The real at its strongest level in two years. First I was told this wasn’t possible. Now I’ll hear it’s not sustainable. Nothing moves in a straight line, but don’t confuse a bear market rally with the start of...
Iran Conflict Boosts Copper Demand Amid Chile Production Dip
Chile — the Saudi Arabia of copper — is already seeing production roll over before any 2nd-order war effects. The implications of the Iran conflict for the mining industry are being underappreciated, despite the severity of the situation. This dynamic is...
Dollar Reversal Signals Enduring Weak‑dollar Era
The magnitude of the reversal in the dollar may be the most important move we saw this week. Welcome to a weaker-dollar world. Upside moves are likely to be limited and short-lived, with a persistent pull back to the downside like a...
Core Inflation Hides the True Rise in Living Costs
Ouch…. Government inflation data *excluding* food and energy. Now imagine what the real number looks like. https://t.co/TK6XDWuZDb
Brazilian Real Leads Global Gains, Heralding New LatAm Cycle
The Brazilian real is outperforming every major currency in the world year to date. I was told this could never happen — but here we are. Welcome to a new LatAm cycle, folks. Exciting times ahead for this region. https://t.co/tvtFhSgOxD https://t.co/6dbPKm7I3L
Supply‑driven Market Renders Rate Hikes Ineffective, Boosting Hard Assets
Rates down. Dollar down. Commodities and Latam stocks surging. A reminder: This is a supply-driven market — hiking rates won’t solve the problem. If anything, a higher cost of debt only worsens it by tightening access to capital. And to be fair: The US...
Tech Firms Skip Middle East, Boost Latin America Data Hubs
Outstanding day for LatAm today. War ending or not… one thing seems highly likely: None of the major tech companies will go out of their way to allocate capital toward building new data centers or large-scale facilities in the Middle East anytime...
China Boosts Gold Reserves, Heralding Deglobalization Shift
Nothing to see here. China adds to its gold reserves. The deglobalization toothpaste is already out of the tube — and the rush into neutral assets is only just beginning. https://t.co/oXGnVgwKfX https://t.co/VQE5YC3lrf
Copper Valued at 4% of Global Debt, Highly Undervalued
Very intriguing chart. The copper market sits at roughly 4% of global debt — still multiples below prior peaks. A simple way to frame just how undervalued the metal is relative to today’s macro imbalances. Now layer in the structural demand tailwinds. Game on. https://t.co/wv1i1hARmY
Brazilian Stocks Remain Deeply Undervalued Compared to Global Markets
What an outstanding chart from my friend @RonStoeferle Brazilian equities remain historically undervalued particularly relative to global equities. Some of my favorite LatAm companies here: https://t.co/0uJrl7UKoA https://t.co/GGfYESXC0g
Stagflation, Debt Surge Prompt Rate Cuts, Boost Real Assets
Ladies and gentlemen: Stagflation at record debt levels. Now imagine being forced to cut rates as inflation reaccelerates. Real assets are about to get very interesting. https://t.co/KMgGEdt8ru https://t.co/hbpbojd6Yg
Processing Capacity, Not Discovery, Limits Rare‑Earth Gains
When it comes to speaking with generalist investors about the mining industry, nothing reveals the level of understanding more than the overwhelming focus on minerals that are, in reality, very small markets. Rare earths are indeed critical metals, but they remain...
Copper's Resilience Signals Structural Demand, Build Positions Now
The remarkable resilience of copper prices given what we’re seeing across markets cannot be ignored. It’s striking how the metal is evolving from a traditional cyclical gauge of economic activity to one increasingly driven by structural demand and a tightening supply...
Fed Must Prioritize Growth Over Inflation in Stagflation
This is rapidly becoming one of the most pronounced stagflationary environments in decades. Inflation is accelerating while growth is rolling over sharply. That leaves the Fed in a real bind. At these levels of debt, you either save growth or kill inflation. Policymakers will...
Latam’s Pivotal Growth Cycle Outshines US Stocks
Ask yourself… What would you rather own at this juncture: Latin America or US stocks? Latam is entering one of the most important cycles in its history, in my view. I couldn’t be more excited to be deeply involved as an investor...
Gold's Oversold Dip Offers Prime Buying Opportunity
Four consecutive weeks of outflows from gold ETFs. This will go down as one of the best opportunities to add to gold at historically oversold levels in my view. Bottoms are always a process, and I do believe we are in the...
Powell Unconcerned About Inflation, Signals Hard Assets
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation. Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :) Two words come to mind: Hard Assets. https://t.co/hITFzs7Q38 https://t.co/POZgWWN4c6
Fed's Tightening Leeway Evaporates Amid New Data
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Rising 10‑Year Yields and Oil Prices Highlight Def
Yes, indeed. 10-year yields are higher. Oil is materially higher. On the deficits side: I’m old enough to remember DOGE… https://t.co/9uWJASUd8q https://t.co/K8XMoJFshw
Sugar Prices Poised for Explosive Breakout, Societal Impact
Sugar prices are just starting to move after rebounding from a key historical support level. This could turn into a highly explosive move in my view Few assets carry such significant societal implications if they begin to rally. Similar setups here: https://t.co/Z2VnzWMQwd https://t.co/u0ocJ7NrVj
Mining Metal Supply Crisis Needs More Than Prices
I’m sure higher energy prices, higher interest rates, and ongoing wars will go a long way in solving the problem of getting mines to produce the metals we desperately need. The world still underestimates the scale of the problem: A lack of...
Agriculture Prices Break 20-Year Barrier, Set to Surge
It’s official. Agricultural commodities have broken through a nearly 20-year resistance level. I expect this move to accelerate from here. When energy moves, agriculture tends to follow — it’s a natural lag in the macro setup. Be mindful of the social and political consequences...
Hard Assets Surge as Stagflation Looms, Fed Constrained
Stagflation is written all over this move today. Gold decisively decoupling from overall equities and rising in step with oil and other hard assets. So much for the liquidation narrative — it’s gone completely quiet now. Don’t believe everything you read....