Copper/Gold Ratio Near Lows Signals Possible Risk Asset Reversal
Copper/Gold Ratio Chart Copper is an industrial metal. Demand rises when economies are growing and building Gold is a safe-haven asset. Demand rises during fear, uncertainty, and monetary stress A rising ratio = copper outperforming gold = economic optimism, growth expectations A falling ratio = gold outperforming copper = economic pessimism, risk-off sentiment We Are Near All-Time Lows. Contrarians might watch this level as a potential long-term reversal zone for copper (and risk assets broadly)
Equal‑weight RSP Outperforms SPY Except in Speculative Bubbles
After the extraordinary run in the market-cap weighted $SPY v its equal-weight version $RSP from April to mid May, it's interesting to see that the ratio has now retraced about half its gains (first chart, red/black). In the very long-run, RSP...
Fed Faces 1970s‑Style Inflation, Growth Stocks at Risk
The Federal Reserve has a problem The Fed generally looks through temporary energy spikes. However, if the energy shock spreads into broader inflation: * Oil remains elevated. * Wage growth stays firm. * Inflation expectations rise. * CPI remains 4–5%+. This is very similar to the...
Homebuyer Demand Plummets, yet Prices Stay Firm
Homebuyer demand is near historic lows. Today's sales activity is only slightly above the depths reached during the 2008 housing crash, despite unemployment being low and the economy avoiding a major recession. Existing home sales are running at roughly 4.17 million...
2‑Year Yield Outpaces Fed Rate, Signaling No Cuts
Bond markets anticipated the Fed Notice the blue line (2-year Treasury yield). It began rising sharply in late 2021 while the Fed Funds Rate (red) was still near zero. Bond investors correctly anticipated large rate hikes before they happened. The Fed eventually caught up. Now...
Unconventional Strategies Driving Eagle's Global Value Edge
First Eagle's Global Value portfolio managers Julien Albertini and Christian Heckon: * The Secret Warren Buffett Principle They Still Use Today * Why 15% of the Portfolio Is in Gold * Why This Fund Owns 100 Stocks Instead of 10 * The AI Investment...
Quality Small‑Caps Outperform Long‑Term, Risk‑On Spike Fades
The chart is essentially a 15-year case study in the small-cap quality premium. Quality matters in small caps. The persistent decline in the ratio confirms that the S&P 600's ($VIOO) earnings screen has been a meaningful edge over 15 years. Russell 2000's...
Corporate Surpluses Offset Government Deficits, Keeping Assets Strong
This is one of the most important macro charts for understanding why financial assets have remained strong despite persistent concerns about deficits, debt, and weak household balance sheets. Because national accounting identities must balance, when one sector (government/households/foreign trade) runs a...
Value Investors Leverage Options for Income and Safety
Tim @TimTravisValue Travis on: * How Value Investors Use Options To Generate Income And Buy Stocks At Lower Prices * Cash-Secured Puts Explained: How Buffett Used Options To Lower His Entry Price * Using Options To Build Margin Of Safety Into Investments * $NOW...
Speculative Momentum Nearing Exhaustion, Echoing Past Blowoffs
This chart is showing a classic late-cycle / speculative momentum setup becoming increasingly unstable. Similar markets in: * late 1999 / early 2000 momentum exhaustion * late 2021 speculative growth blowoff * mini-versions in 2018 and 2020
Mega‑Cap Growth Dominates, Value Set for Rebound
Global Growth is still historically expensive, while Value remains relatively cheap, but expensive to its own history. Financials at ~12.2x and Energy at ~12.5x remain cheap. Staples near 19.8x is notable. This chart supports the thesis that we are likely in a: *...
Value Investing Finds Opportunity Amid AI Fear and Market Distortions
Tweedy Browne’s John Spears And Jay Hill on: * AI Fear Is Creating New Opportunities * How Insider Buying Can Reveal Undervalued Stocks * Big Tech Buybacks May Be Destroying Shareholder Value * Why Market Flows Are Distorting Valuations * What Honey Badgers Can Teach...
Margin Reversion Threatens Elevated P/E Valuations
High margins justify elevated P/E ratios. However, if margins mean-revert toward historical norms (~10–11%), it would be a significant negative catalyst for equity valuations.
Inversion Signals Recession, yet Fed‑driven, Not Deflationary
10Y Treasury Yield−3M Treasury Bill Yield A deep inversion followed by re-steepening has historically been one of the best recession warning signals. But this cycle was driven primarily by extreme short-rate tightening from the Fed, not by a collapse in long-term inflation...
Greg Abel Emerges as Berkshire’s Next Transformative CEO
Adam @BRK_Student Mead on: * Why Greg Abel Already Looks Like Berkshire Hathaway’s Next Great CEO * Berkshire Hathaway Buybacks: Is Greg Abel Paying More Than Buffett Would? * Why EBITDA Is the ‘Instagram Filter’ of Finance * Could AI Become a Threat to...