2‑Year Yield Surpasses Fed Funds, Signals No Cuts
The 2-year Treasury yield (blue) is now > the Federal Funds Effective Rate (red) and CPI (green). If you believe the 2-Year leads the FFER, there's less likelihood of a rate cut anytime soon. https://t.co/73ZCycQNlj
Small Caps Outperform Big, Ratio Hits Century‑High
Over the last century the smallest stocks (green, LHS) have beaten the biggest stocks (red, LHS) by six times (blue, RHS). But not in a straight line. The market has cycled. And the cycles were long. The blue line shows the...
Undervalued Gems:
Tim Travis @TimTravisValue on: * Blue Owl $OWL and $OBDC: Hidden Value in Private Credit Stocks? $MSDL * Why Asset Managers Like Blackstone, $KKR, and Blue Owl Are So Cheap * Energy Stocks Rally: $DVN, $OXY, and $EPD Breakdown * Assured Guaranty $AGO:...
Steepening 10‑3 Curve Signals Shift to Cyclical Value Rally
The 10-3 Treasury Yield Curve is as steep as it has been since July 2022 after the 10-year spiked over the weekend. Historical playbook Every cycle: * Curve inverts → tightening / late cycle * Growth slows / recession risk builds * Fed pivots →...
Top Value Investing Insights and Leaders Spotlighted
This week in value: Year-End Letter for 2025: Deep Value (GMO) PzenaPerspectives – The Value Stocks to Watch (Pzena) How Value Investing Adds Value (VIS) Co-Founder and CEO Sarah Ketterer reflects on 25 years of value investing at Causeway Capital (Causeway)
Value Stocks Shine After Tech Bubbles Burst
"Conclusion Overall, the results suggest that the most reliable approach is to hold a long position in value stocks relative to growth stocks. Attempts to systematically trying to predict periods when large growth stocks outperform small value stocks are difficult, but...
2‑Year Yield Above Fed Funds Signals No Rate Cuts
2-Year Treasury yield (blue line, market expectations of Fed policy) > Federal Funds Rate (red line, actual policy) suggests Fed is unlikely to cut. https://t.co/7odcQloUt0
Physical Economy Surge Fuels Small‑cap, Cyclical Rally
Taking the pulse of the physical economy. Growth is accelerating. Bullish for small-caps, cyclicals and value.
Value Stocks at Historic Discount, Poised for Outperformance
Valuation spreads (how cheaply value stocks trade relative to growth stocks) measured as the Price/Book ratio of value stocks divided by growth stocks in the US. "On average, US value stocks have traded at a 78% discount (i.e., 22 cents on...
Stable BDI Masks Looming Freight Spike From Ship Shortage
The long-term history of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the benchmark measure of global dry bulk freight rates. It tracks what it costs to ship commodities like: * Iron ore * Coal * Grain * Bauxite * Steel inputs Because these commodities sit at the very beginning...
High ROIC and Strong Interest Coverage Drive Stock Returns
ROIC, and ROA and ROE are the strongest predictors of stock performance. Each measures how efficiently a company converts capital into profits. Interest Coverage (EBIT / interest expense) captures financial strength and ability to service debt. Markets reward companies that: • generate high...
Capital Gains Outpace Labor, Concentrating Wealth and Power
Take a look at these two charts together. One is income concentration (Top 10% share of consumption v Bottom 80%), the other is equity market concentration (S&P 500 Growth vs Value weight). In the last 15 years, surplus flowed to capital,...
Mid‑Cap Value Gems Thrive Outside Tech, Guided by Gentle Activism
Our chat with "gentleman activist" Alexander Roepers on: * Alexander Roepers’ Value Investing Strategy * Why Alexander Roepers Avoids Tech, Biotech, and Financial Stocks * Why Europe and Japan Offer Hidden Value Investing Opportunities * Three Catalysts That Unlock Value in Mid-Cap Stocks * The...
Extreme Fear Signals Imminent Short‑Term Market Bounce
Fear and Greed in Extreme Fear. Historically signals we're getting close to a short-term bounce. https://t.co/tN4YpIHB0E
Karat Packaging Posts Record Q4 Sales, Boosts Profit
Solid report from small/micro Karat Packaging $KRT, a specialty distributor and manufacturer of environmentally friendly, disposable foodservice products. A way to play the growth in food delivery businesses like Grubhub, Uber Eats, DoorDash etc and take-out. Has a small ongoing buyback. Fourth Quarter...
Our Portfolios Cheapened, Outperformed as Market Overvalued
"We’ve been operating in what we see as an anomalous market environment for the past two years; specifically, the momentum-driven U.S. market has been one of the most extreme in history. [This] has also created compelling company-specific opportunities moving forward. [O]ur portfolios’...
Record Hedge Levels Signal Potential Upside Rally
This chart, which has been doing the rounds, shows one of the most hedged equity markets in years. That usually means fear is already priced in, and the risk asymmetry increasingly favors upside surprises rather than further panic selling. This chart...
Long‑term Unemployment Spikes Early, Now Cooling, No Recession Yet
Long-duration unemployment is one of the most cyclical and recession-sensitive labor indicators. Every recession produces a sharp surge in long-term unemployment: * 1954 recession: ~+550% spike * 1974–75 recession: ~+300% * 1982 recession: ~+100%+ * 2008–09 recession: ~+150% * 2020 COVID recession: ~+330% Historically, YoY long-term unemployment...
Micro‑PE Activity Spikes as Papa John’s Gets Bid
Nice to see small cap Papa John's $PZZA catch a bid. Small and micro private equity is getting much more active. Discl. Long. https://t.co/jxtCUCCgCr
Small and Mid Caps Ultra‑cheap, Primed for Multi‑year Rally
Valuation dispersion is extreme. Small and mid caps are producing strong earnings but trading at crisis-like valuation discounts. This is still one of the largest valuation gaps in decades. * Mid caps trade 21% cheaper than large caps * Small caps trade 26%...
Oil Demand to 2050 Drives Petrochemical Price Surge
Oil is deeply embedded in the economy. Whatever happens in the short term, demand contonies to grow through 2050.
Large‑Cap Valuations at Historic Premium Over Small‑Mid Caps
The large-cap valuation premium is still near historical extremes. Large caps are trading at a ~28–36% premium to small and mid caps. That’s historically wide outside of the late-1990s tech bubble. The chart tracks forward P/E ratios for three indices: * Red: S&P 500...
Oil Flips to Technical Bear After Weekend $115 Surge
Oil closed Friday in a bull market at $91 but will close today in a technical bear market around $95 because it went to $115 over the weekend. https://t.co/kG1QReBbAy
Small‑Cap Banks Undervalued, Big Banks Overpriced, Deep Value Wins
Long/short financials investor Derek Pilecki of @gatorcapital on: * Why Small Cap Banks Are So Cheap Right Now * Why the U.S. Has Thousands of Banks * His Deep Value Strategy in Financial Stocks * Why Big Banks Are Expensive and Small Banks Are...
Value Investing Gains Momentum Amid AI Market Rout
This week in value: Berkshire Hathaway 2025 Annual Report (BH) Tom Gayner – 2025 Letter (Markel) GMO – Year End Letters 2025 (GMO) Icahn Enterprises L.P. 2025 Q4 (Icahn) Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel on resuming buyback program: I absolutely talked to Warren (CNBC) Could Value...
Dollar Rises, Treasuries Fall: Safety Flight Redefined
"The US Dollar may still have moved up after the war started, but the price of US Treasuries went down. Flight-to-safety and flight-to-quality aren’t what they used to be."
U.S. Large‑Cap Stocks Overpriced by 176% Historically
Large caps are extremely expensive, well beyond 3 standard deviations above average, but back a little from last year's all-time high. These two charts come from long-run valuation work (Advisor Perspectives / Crestmont style datasets) and show how expensive the U.S....
Growth Dominance Hits 30‑Year High, May Be Peaking
We are moving away from the most extreme growth-over-value cycle peak in modern history. On a relative basis, the expensive vs. value ratio is now back to the 2021 Meme stock peak, which was then higher than at any...
Quality Small Caps Outperform Junkier Russell 2000 Over
This chart plots the ratio of the S&P 600 Index divided by the Russell 2000 Index from the early 1990s to today. Russell 2000 = 2000 “small caps” by market cap, inclusion rules are mostly mechanical and allow many...
Energy Cheap and Underweight; Oil Upswing Could Boost Index
This chart shows Energy’s weight in the S&P 500 over time in two dimensions: * Blue line = Energy’s market cap share * Red line = Energy’s forward earnings share Current readings (Mar 2): * Market cap share ≈ 3.4% * Forward earnings share ≈...
Cyclicals at 25% Signal Upcoming Market Inflection
Each time this cluster reached ~44%, it represented extreme global concentration in growth/quality sectors. Historically, that 24–25% zone has marked secular lows in cyclicals/value share. When financials/energy/materials are ~25%: * They are structurally under-owned. * Valuations tend to be compressed. * Expectations are low. In 2000...
LEI/CEI Ratio Hits 60‑Year Low, Forecasting Recession
Every recession since 1960 has been preceded by a material downturn in this ratio. Today’s reading is squarely in that danger zone. These charts show the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). The shaded bars...
0.78 Ratio Signals Modest Value Edge, Not Explosion
The blue line is Forward P/E of Value divided by Growth: * 1.0 = Value and Growth trade at the same forward P/E. * <1.0 = Value trades cheaper than Growth. * Lower = wider valuation spread favoring Growth. Historical 3–5 Year Returns: * When...
Tepper Dissects Markets, AI, Capitalism, and Crisis
Our chat with Jonathan Tepper on: * Building a Dominant Long-Only Fund in a Distorted Market * Buying Booking at Peak Fear: COVID, Google & Mispriced Risk * Will AI Disintermediate the Platforms? * AI Winners, Losers & the SaaS Apocalypse * The Myth of...
Value Investing Shifts: Beyond Wealth, New Picks, Plateau
This week in value: @GSpier : What Really Counts in Life — Beyond Wealth and Returns @bogumil_nyc Pzena – The Value Stocks to Watch 2026 @PzenaInvstmtMgt ) Semper Augustus 2025 Letter: Cloud Delusions; Value at a Secular Plateau; And – Berkshire Hathaway:...
Russell 2000 Shifts From Tech to Industrial/Defense
Russell 2000 $IWM top 25 holdings. Shows a meaningful shift from early Q4 last year. Top holdings have rotated from speculative tech optionality toward industrial/defense/capex cyclicals over the past few months. https://t.co/c24tFJQjc5
Flatbed Rejection Spike Signals Bullish Industrial Growth
This is an extreme spike in the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index – Flatbed (STRIF.USA) from 2018–2026. A 40% rejection rate means: * Strong industrial throughput * Tight labor + equipment capacity * Improving pricing power in physical economy * Early/mid expansion phase dynamics It usually leads: *...
Depressed Oil‑Gold Ratio Signals Multi‑Year Energy Outperformance
Oil peaked in 2008 at $140 and has fallen sideways since to ~$65 today. In hard-money gold terms, 1 ounce buys 100 barrels of oil. Oil has been deflating for decades. The only time it was cheaper was 2020 when...
High‑Momentum Tech Overvalued, Risky If Market Weakens
Tech momentum is stretched. If macro weakens or earnings disappoint, crowded high-momentum tech could unwind quickly. This chart shows the performance and valuation of a high-minus-low (H–L) momentum factor within Russell 1000 Tech. Top Panel: H–L Momentum = Long Q1 (top momentum...
Yield Curve Shifts From 2023 Inversion to 2025 Flattening
Chart shows the shape and evolution of the yield curve (3-Month Treasury yields (blue) and 10-Year Treasury yields (red)) from Feb 2023 to Feb 2026. It's been a wild ride from the extreme inversion in 2023 to normalization beginning Q4 2025....
Mag 7 Forward P/S Ratio Returns to 2021 Peak
Mag 7 forward price/sales ratio now back to the 2021 peak of ~7.1. * 2013–2020 average ≈ ~3.8–4.2x * Including bubble years (2020–2021 + 2024–2025) average ≈ ~4.5x https://t.co/AfvDJpv0iW
Green Tech Production Quadruples, Outpaces All Consumer Goods
Technology production (green) * ~50 in 2000 * ~190 today Nearly a 4x increase over 25 years This is the only category with powerful long-term structural growth. It recovered strongly after 2008 and exploded again post-2020. Everything else? Mostly flat. Industrial Production: Consumer Goods (2017...
Small‑cap Value Poised for Violent Surge Post‑tech Dominance
Russell 2000 $IWM slightly ahead of Nasdaq $QQQ since 2000 and now ahead year-on-year. But the path was dramatic. From 2000–2006 → Small caps crushed tech after the dot-com bust Since 2006, small caps have underperformed large-cap growth for two decades, and severely...
Emerging Markets Still Offer Cheap Value Opportunities
Emerging markets portfolio manager Juan Torres on: * Where the Real Emerging Markets Value Is * If US Stocks Fall, What Happens to Emerging Markets? * Should You Hedge Emerging Markets Currency Risk? * Is Buying the Dip Still Smart? * Emerging Markets Outlook: Cheap or...