Crypto

Bitcoin: Preparing for the Next Leg Down

Benjamin Cowen
Benjamin Cowen•Mar 25, 2026

Why It Matters

Understanding Bitcoin’s recurring February‑March weakness helps investors anticipate the next downside move, protecting capital as broader market cycles converge on a potential recession.

Key Takeaways

  • •Bitcoin historically lows in February, lower highs in March.
  • •60K support likely to break, prompting another downtrend.
  • •Weekly RSI suggests near bottom, but monthly RSI remains bearish.
  • •Midterm years typically see declines within weeks of March end.
  • •200‑week moving average often breached in late‑cycle recessions.

Summary

The video warns that Bitcoin is entering the next leg down of the current bare market, drawing on historical patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022. The presenter highlights that each mid‑term year typically sees a February low followed by a lower March high, and that the current 60K support level mirrors the 6K threshold of earlier cycles, suggesting it may not hold.

Key data points include the weekly RSI hovering near oversold levels while the monthly RSI stays firmly bearish, the MVRV Z‑score still above zero, and Bitcoin’s valuation still lagging 47% behind its S&P 500 peak. The speaker also notes that the 200‑week moving average, a reliable late‑cycle indicator, has been tested in every recent recession and is likely to be breached again.

He cites specific examples: the 2014 February trough, the 2018 March resistance at the 20‑week SMA, and the 2022 post‑FTX collapse that failed to recover above the 21‑week EMA. The narrative stresses that market stories often lag price action, and that the prevailing “four‑year cycle” still predicts a Q4 top despite contrary chatter on social media.

For investors, the implication is clear: prepare for a potential drop below 60K, possibly into the 40K‑50K range, and adjust risk exposure accordingly. Ignoring these historical signals could leave portfolios vulnerable as the broader macro environment moves toward a late‑business‑cycle recession.

Original Description

In this video, we take a data-driven look at Bitcoin as it shows signs of preparing for another leg lower. Rather than relying on emotion or narratives, we break down the current market structure using key macro indicators, liquidity trends, and historical cycle behavior.
We’ll discuss how Bitcoin has behaved in prior late-cycle environments, what typically triggers additional downside, and why periods of temporary strength can still occur within broader bearish structures. We’ll also examine the role of global liquidity, risk-on vs. risk-off dynamics, and how Bitcoin’s relationship with traditional markets may influence what comes next.
Is this just a healthy correction… or the setup for something deeper?
If you’re trying to navigate this environment with a clear framework instead of guesswork, this video will walk you through the signals that matter most.
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Disclaimer: The information presented within this video is NOT financial advice.
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