Why ETH Might Be Near a Major Turning Point

David Hoffman
David HoffmanMar 11, 2026

Why It Matters

Understanding Ethereum’s cycle dynamics and the impact of its L2 strategy is crucial for investors seeking assets that can outpace Bitcoin and deliver long‑term upside in a maturing crypto market.

Key Takeaways

  • ETH cycles show diminishing returns across three market phases.
  • L2 roadmap caused short‑term price underperformance this cycle.
  • Network fundamentals improved despite stagnant ETH price levels.
  • ETH could potentially outperform Bitcoin in the upcoming cycle.
  • Valuation blends monetary, utility, and network activity metrics.

Summary

The Bankless Nation episode centers on Ethereum’s current position in its market cycle, featuring DeFi analyst Michael Nato. He reviews ETH’s historical performance across three cycles and evaluates whether the asset has bottomed out or is poised for a new rally.

Nato highlights that ETH’s gains have shrunk dramatically: a 175‑fold rise in the 2017 cycle, 61‑fold in 2021, and only 5.6‑fold in the most recent 2022‑2025 cycle. He attributes the muted price action to the L2 scaling roadmap, which, while improving network capacity, diverted value capture away from L1 and left investors under‑rewarded.

Key data points include ETH’s price moving from $8 to $1,400 in 2017, $80 to $4,878 in 2021, and $881 to $4,953 in the latest cycle. Nato notes that despite these modest price moves, on‑chain metrics—developer activity, DeFi deployment, and stable‑coin usage—have continued to strengthen. He also cites the lack of breakthrough applications on L2s and UX friction in bridging as factors dampening sentiment.

The discussion suggests that Ethereum may still outperform Bitcoin if L1 scaling gains traction and L2s mature, offering a renewed value proposition. Investors are urged to incorporate a blended valuation framework—monetary scarcity, utility demand, and network health—when assessing ETH’s fair value and portfolio weight.

Original Description

📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE

Ethereum underperformed this cycle, and investors are asking the big question: did ETH just skip a cycle, or is something deeper going on? Michael Nadeau joins Ryan to break down where Ethereum sits in the market cycle today, why several of his key indicators suggest ETH is entering a fair value zone, and whether the true macro bottom could still lie ahead.
They also unpack why ETH struggled despite improving fundamentals. Mike explains how Ethereum’s L2 roadmap may have improved the network while weakening short-term value capture for the asset itself, and what signals he’s watching (MVRV, supply in profit, the 200-week moving average) as he looks for the next expansion phase.
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
3:50 The History of ETH Cycles
5:41 Analyzing Performance Trends
8:32 The Impact of L2 Roadmap
10:24 Roadmap Decisions & Market Perception
15:50 Valuation Metrics Explained
20:08 Disparities in Valuation Methods
23:22 Navigating Market Conditions
26:14 Nation-State Metaphor & Valuation
27:45 Revenue and Economic Impact
33:42 DEX Volumes & Their Implications
37:25 Stablecoin Supply on Ethereum
38:09 Cycle Metrics & Analysis
44:22 Fair Market Value Insights
50:40 Evaluating ETH for the Portfolio

Not financial or tax advice. See our investment disclosures here:

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