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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
Dollar poised for biggest weekly drop since January as cease‑fire eases safe‑haven demand
The U.S. dollar slipped on Friday, putting it on track for its largest weekly decline since January. The euro rose 1.8% and the pound 2% against the dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars are set for near‑3% weekly gains. The move reflects reduced tail‑risk after a fragile cease‑fire in the Gulf and expectations of resumed market risk appetite.
Moody's Investors Service maintained Ghana's sovereign rating at Caa1 while revising the outlook from stable to positive. The agency highlighted lower domestic financing costs but warned that exchange‑rate swings and commodity‑price volatility remain key risks for the cedi and debt sustainability.
Kevin Warsh, a Fed chair hopeful, argues that shrinking the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet will free up stimulus that can be redirected into lower fed‑funds rates. The piece challenges that view, noting that reserve balances—about $3 trillion, roughly 9% of U.S....
The Reserve Bank of India reported a $9.06 billion rise in foreign‑exchange reserves to $697.12 billion for the week ended April 3, 2026. The surge, driven by a $7.22 billion jump in gold holdings and a $1.78 billion increase in foreign‑currency assets, reinforces a buffer...
The USDCAD pair slipped more than 100 pips during the first full trading week of April, prompting a fresh Elliott Wave assessment. Analysts debate whether the move represents a short‑term buying dip or the onset of a larger bearish impulse....
USDJPY slipped for a second consecutive week, but the 158.00 support level held firm, providing a technical foothold for bulls. Elliott Wave analysts interpret the move as the tail end of a corrective wave, setting the stage for a potential...
JUST IN: Central banks' gold reserves hit a record $3.87 trillion, topping adjusted US Dollar reserves at $3.73 trillion by $140 billion, as gold assets tripled since 2022 while USD reserves fell $300 billion due to geopolitical tensions.
Kenya's central bank governor Kamau Thugge said Nairobi will resume IMF negotiations in Washington this month, signaling a softer stance after the Iran‑US conflict widened the current‑account gap and forced a downgrade of the 2026 growth forecast to 5.3%. The...
China’s inflation rate comes in at 1.0%/yr in March, BELOW its 2%/yr target. China’s money supply (M2) is growing at 9.0%/yr, BELOW Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 10.0%/yr, a rate consistent with hitting its inflation target of 2%/yr. THE INFLATION STORY =...
Iran’s parliament is trying to ensure that Hormuz transit fees will be paid in RIAL. I currently measure that the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% vs. the USD since the beginning of the US-Israeli war on Iran. STAY TUNED. https://t.co/o5Mv9sigwg
The video urges traders to abandon knee‑jerk reactions to news headlines and instead construct a rule‑based framework for fundamental analysis. By treating each headline as a conditional trigger—if bad news, then risk‑off; if risk‑off, then dollar strength—the trader can pre‑define...
The pound slipped to about $1.3420 per dollar as markets brace for the U.S. consumer price index. Traders have cut expectations for Bank of England hikes to 30‑40 basis points this year, while the Federal Reserve is still seen cutting...
The GBP/USD pair is trading near the lower edge of a well‑defined resistance ceiling between 1.34708 and 1.3488 that has capped upside for six weeks. Buyers remain active, but a break above the ceiling would force short covering and spark...
Joe Gagnon (@GagnonMacro) should take a victory lap; the IMF has conceded intervention does have a real impact -- "A growing empirical literature finds that such intervention can systematically generate real exchange rate depreciation and raise current account balances" 1/
Seriously, we have less than 40 minutes until exchange hours close and we loose liquidity for the week. If you have exposure that you feel is 'risky' should the US-Iran conflict kick off again over the weekend, consider cutting or...
The article argues that the Federal Reserve must stay agile as geopolitical shocks and soaring energy and fertilizer prices threaten to reignite inflation. It warns that the Fed’s overly accommodative stance in 2021‑22 helped push inflation to a 9% peak,...
The European Central Bank is advancing its digital euro project, originally launched in 2020, as EU legislation clears the path for implementation. The digital currency is envisioned as a cash‑like token to complement physical euros in everyday transactions. ECB officials...
