BofA Cuts USD/JPY Forecast to 152 (Prior 157) and Flags Three Triggers for Yen Bull Turn
Bank of America Securities upgraded its view on the Japanese yen to neutral from bearish and lowered its end‑2026 USD/JPY target to 152, down from 157. The revision comes as the yen continues sliding toward the 160 per dollar threshold that could trigger aggressive intervention. BofA identified three specific catalysts that would push it to a bullish stance: USD/JPY reaching 160, Japan's 10‑year government bond yield approaching 3%, or Brent crude falling below $90 a barrel. The bank also noted a suspected ¥10 trillion (≈$63 billion) intervention in late April‑early May, underscoring authorities’ willingness to defend the currency.
EUR/GBP: Weak UK Jobs Data Pushes BoE Toward Patience, but CPI Holds Key to Breakout
Sterling slipped after the latest UK labor market report showed a sharp drop in payroll employment, a higher unemployment rate and slowing wage growth, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England will adopt a more patient stance on interest rates....
AUD/CAD Reverses Lower as China Slowdown, RBA Pause, and Oil Surge Shift Momentum to Loonie
The Australian dollar slipped against the Canadian loonie as weak Chinese consumption data, expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy pause in June, and a surge in oil prices bolstered the CAD. AUD/CAD retreated from a recent high...
The 3-Body Problem of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate (Hint: China)
In early 2025 the yen slipped back toward 160 USD/JPY despite a narrowing interest‑rate gap between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. The article argues that the yen’s weakness is not explained by bilateral rate differentials alone but by a...
EURUSD Bangs Against Target Resistance at 1.1655. Can the Buyers Get Through the Target.
In the latest session, the EUR/USD pair tested the key resistance level of 1.1655, briefly climbing to 1.16565 before reversing lower to 1.1632. The pair has since rallied back toward the 1.1655 mark, encountering sellers but showing limited downside pressure....
The AUDUSD Finds Support Buyers and Bounces Higher.
The Australian dollar slipped to a weekly low of 0.7119 after failing to break the prior week’s high of 0.7277, finding support near the 0.7100‑0.7111 swing zone. Traders now see a 100‑pip range between 0.7100‑0.7111 support and 0.7194‑0.7200 resistance, with...
Hedge Funds Pile Into Bearish Sterling Options as UK Political Risk Drives Volatility
Hedge funds and asset managers sharply increased bearish bets on the British pound last week, flooding the market with sterling put options that dwarf call activity. The surge follows Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s hinted move toward a parliamentary run, heightening...
Indonesia Rupiah Hits New Record Low; President Downplays Day-to-Day Impact of Currency Weakness
Indonesia's rupiah fell to a new record low of 17,668 per dollar, slipping more than 1% as global oil prices rose and the Jakarta stock index dropped over 4%. President Prabowo Subianto downplayed the impact, saying villagers do not use...
Naira Posts Weekly Loss Despite 249.16% Liquidity Surge at NFEM
The Central Bank of Nigeria reported that the naira weakened 0.7% to N1,371 per dollar (≈$0.73) despite a 249% surge in official FX market turnover to $509.22 million. Deal volume fell, with NFEM transactions dropping 11.6% week‑on‑week and interbank deals plunging...
Peso Closes Week at New Record Low
The Philippine peso closed the week at a fresh record low of 61.721 per dollar, slipping 8.1 centavos from its prior trough. The decline was driven by a resurgent US dollar, which rose more than 1% as markets priced in...
InvestingLive Americas FX News Wrap 15 May: Powell Exits as Inflation Fears Roar
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell concluded an eight‑year tenure as Treasury yields surged, reigniting inflation concerns. The 2‑year note rose to 4.08% and the 10‑year to 4.60%, their highest levels since 2025, while WTI crude breached $101 per barrel, adding...
$580 Million Frozen Over One FX Transaction: The Yim Leak Case and Thailand's Enforcement Problem
Thailand’s Anti‑Money Laundering Office has frozen more than 20 billion baht (about $580 million) tied to Cambodian businessman Yim Leak, even though the underlying transaction was a modest $165,000 FX transfer processed through a regulated pooled‑liquidity clearing account. The authorities traced every...
The Dollar’s Status Through the Lens of Foreign Exchange Reserves
The U.S. dollar’s share of official foreign‑exchange reserves has slipped from over 70% in the late 1990s to roughly 58% today. Goldberg and Hannaoui demonstrate that this headline decline conflates two separate forces: shifts in countries’ preferences for dollar assets...
The NZDUSD Falls to New Lows and Tests the Low of a Key Swing Area
The NZDUSD is hovering near session lows, pressing against a key swing zone between 0.5918 and 0.5935 that recently flipped from resistance to support. The 200‑hour moving average sits at 0.5934 within this band, adding technical weight. A decisive break...
The Buying and Selling in the USDJPY Cannot Be Sustained in Either Direction
The USDJPY pair swung sharply today, dropping from the 157.97 resistance to a low near 157.30 before rebounding. The decline breached key swing lows from March 19 and April 17 and slipped beneath the 100‑hour and 100‑day moving averages, creating...
Mo Ibrahim: Africa Loses $5bn in Currency Conversion Costs Yearly
A Mo Ibrahim Foundation report estimates Africa loses roughly $5 billion each year to currency‑conversion fees, a hidden cost that inflates intra‑continental trade expenses. The expense compounds existing non‑tariff barriers and slows progress toward the African Continental Free Trade Area’s target of...
Middle East War Drives Record Capital Outflows From Turkey
Turkey posted a March current‑account deficit of $9.7 bn, roughly 2.6% of GDP, widening the 12‑month shortfall to $39.7 bn. The capital account recorded a record $26.8 bn of outflows, largely attributed to heightened geopolitical risk from the Middle East war. Combined with...
Investor Jitters over Starmer Uncertainty Drive UK Borrowing Costs to 28-Year High
Long-term borrowing costs in the United Kingdom spiked to a 28‑year peak on Tuesday as investors reacted to uncertainty surrounding Labour leader Keir Starmer’s potential departure. The yield on 30‑year gilts rose 14 basis points to 5.81%, the highest level...
How the U.S.‑Israel War Against Iran Is Exposing the Limits of the Petrodollar System
U.S. public debt has risen to $31.27 trillion, edging past the nation’s $31.22 trillion GDP, reviving concerns about fiscal sustainability. Gulf Cooperation Council sovereign wealth funds, which collectively own roughly $2 trillion of U.S. assets, are reassessing those holdings after the U.S.-Israel campaign...
West Asia Crisis a ‘Live Stress Test’ for India’s Balance of Payments, Says CEA V Anantha Nageswaran
India’s chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran warned that the West Asia crisis has become a live balance‑of‑payments stress test for the country, pressuring inflation, the current account and the rupee. He highlighted a 48% jump in Brent crude, a 500% surge...
Dollar Gains as Oil and CPI Lift Fed Hike Bets, but Risk Appetite Holds Firm
The dollar rose broadly as April CPI jumped to 3.8% YoY and core inflation to 2.8%, nudging Fed‑fund futures toward a 28% chance of another rate hike. Oil prices surged, with Brent above $107 and WTI over $100, driven by...
The Market Is Steady/Doing Better Through the CPI Shock
The U.S. Consumer Price Index showed core inflation rising 0.4% month‑over‑month, beating the 0.3% forecast, while headline CPI matched expectations at 0.6%. Year‑over‑year, core CPI climbed to 2.8% versus a 2.7% estimate, and the headline rate held at 3.8%, keeping...
Ramaphosa’s Political Peril Earns Shrug From Investors for Now
South Africa’s rand remains steady despite looming impeachment talks against President Cyril Ramaphosa. The president rebuffed calls to resign in a televised address, while a court ruling on May 8 revived a 2022 farm‑theft scandal that fuels the political drama. Investors appear...
USD Is Higher to Start the US Session. Yields and Oil Higher. Stocks Lower. CPI Awaited.
The U.S. dollar opened the North American session higher, gaining 0.36% against the euro, 0.27% versus the yen and 0.62% versus the pound as traders brace for the key CPI release. Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% month‑over‑month and...
InvestingLive European FX News Wrap: JPY Whipsaws, Risk Mood on the Defensive
The European trading session turned defensive as markets awaited the U.S. CPI report amid heightened geopolitical tension over the U.S.-Iran stalemate. The Japanese yen whipsawed early, briefly falling before rebounding to the key resistance around 158.00 following suspected intervention and...
‘Telling People to Not Buy Gold Has the Opposite Effect’: Deepak Shenoy Shares Other Ways to Reduce Import Bill
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s austerity drive includes a year‑long ban on gold purchases to curb the $51 billion FY25 import bill. Investor Deepak Shenoy argues the ban backfires and proposes supply‑side solutions: the RBI selling 200 tonnes of its gold reserves...
How Stablecoins Are Extending the Monetary Power of the United States
Stablecoins tied to the U.S. dollar have surged, with transaction volume climbing from roughly $565 bn in 2020 to about $11 tn projected for 2025—representing 65 % of Visa’s network size. Private issuers Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) now control roughly 84 % of...
Panda Power: Pakistan to Tap China Debt Market with First Sale of Yuan-Priced Notes
Pakistan will issue up to $250 million of yuan‑denominated panda bonds, the first tranche of a $1 billion program, with AIIB and ADB guaranteeing 95% of the debt. The three‑year sustainable‑development notes aim to tap lower Chinese borrowing costs after Pakistan raised...
Oil Shock Rattles D-Street as Rupee Hits Record Low
India’s equity markets slumped on Monday as Brent crude breached $104 per barrel, pushing the rupee to a record closing low of 95.31 per dollar. The Nifty 50 fell 1.5% to 23,815.85, breaking the 24,000 support, while the Sensex dropped 1.7%...
How the U.S. Is Trying to Ensure the Dollar’s Dominance During Economic Turmoil
The Trump administration is negotiating new dollar currency‑swap lines with Gulf and Asian partners to reinforce the greenback’s reserve‑currency status amid rising use of the renminbi and crypto for oil trade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is leading talks with the...
Interest Rates Can’t Control Today’s Inflation
Inflation is rising again in advanced economies, driven by geopolitical turmoil, surging energy prices, and fragile supply chains rather than excess demand. Central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have kept interest rates steady,...
José Luis Escrivá: Capital Flows, Exchange Rates, and Geopolitics - the Value of Trust in a Changing Global Order
In a BIS speech, José Luis Escrivá warned that the global geoeconomic order is shifting from multilateral cooperation to the use of economic tools as instruments of pressure, while rapid technological change reshapes money and payments. He argued that tariffs...
Where International Finance Meets Development: The Role of Currency Risk
Currency volatility in African markets is reshaping development outcomes by dictating who can access capital and on what terms. Firms in shallow financial systems must choose between expensive foreign‑currency loans or scarce local‑currency financing, while households face higher remittance costs...
François Villeroy De Galhau: A Long View on Monetary Policy - Three Clarifications Prompted by Three Challenges
In his final monetary speech, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau reflected on a decade of central‑bank turbulence, from pre‑2020 low‑inflation pressures through the Covid‑induced deflation risk and the 2022‑23 inflation surge. He argued that despite these shocks,...
Ida Wolden Bache: Policy Rate Raised to 4.25 Percent
Norway’s Monetary and Financial Stability Committee lifted the policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to 4.25% as inflation remains above the 2% target. Consumer‑price inflation is 3.6% overall and about 3% core, driven by strong wage growth and higher global...
Gold’s Grim Message
Central banks are accelerating purchases and repatriation of gold, a move the author ties to rising deglobalization. Emerging‑market central banks have more than doubled their gold reserves since the 2008 financial crisis. The surge comes amid heightened geopolitical tension, notably...
As Trump Heads to China, Here’s How Much the Dollar Is Overvalued, According to Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs says the Chinese renminbi is about 20% undervalued versus the dollar. The firm expects the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit and China’s expanding trade surplus to push the yuan toward 6.50 per dollar within 12 months, implying roughly 4.5% appreciation...
As PM Modi Calls for Conserving FX, What Steps Can India Take?
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to conserve foreign exchange as soaring oil prices push the rupee to record lows and drain reserves. The Reserve Bank of India has been selling dollars, cracking down on arbitrage and scouting ways to...
Indian Rupee Erases Recent Gains as US and Iran Fail to Reach an Agreement. What's Next?
The United States and Iran failed to reach a nuclear‑related agreement, prompting the dollar to regain modest strength. The Indian rupee erased most of its recent gains as oil‑price sensitivity and geopolitical tension weighed on the currency. Technical analysis shows...
Kiwi May Defy Hedge Fund Short Bets as RBNZ and Geopolitics Shift Outlook
New Zealand’s dollar (NZD) may buck heavy hedge‑fund short positions as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hints at tighter monetary policy while Middle‑East tensions lift safe‑haven demand. Activist investors Carrousel Capital and Saba Capital are pressing for governance changes...
Market Outlook for the Week of 11th - 15th May
The week of May 11‑15 is data‑heavy, starting with U.S. existing‑home sales and followed by core CPI, PPI and retail sales releases that will test inflation trends. A Senate vote is expected to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Federal...
After Winning Poll Battles, Modi Has Picked up a New Fight
After winning elections in West Bengal and Assam, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shifted focus to economic mobilisation, urging citizens to curb consumption as crude oil prices surged above $100 a barrel. He called for reduced fuel use, postponed gold purchases,...
RBI Should Dial Back Rupee Intervention: Former Governor Subbarao
Former RBI governor Duvvuri Subbarao warned that the central bank’s aggressive rupee‑intervention policy should be scaled back. He argues the RBI should let the rupee weaken to reflect rising import costs and capital outflows, reserving rate hikes as a last resort....
Emerging Currencies Weaken as Iran Conflict Dims Risk Appetite
Emerging‑market currencies slipped against the U.S. dollar on Monday as oil prices surged past $105 a barrel and the Iran‑Israel conflict intensified. The MSCI Emerging‑Market Currency index declined 0.1%, with oil‑importing economies such as India, Chile, South Korea and Thailand...
Modi Asks Indians to Stop Buying Gold, Hitting Jewelry Stocks
Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged Indians to refrain from buying gold jewelry for at least a year, citing the need to protect the nation’s foreign‑exchange reserves. The appeal came alongside calls to curb fuel consumption and discretionary overseas travel. India...
RBI Said to Be Likely Stepping Into the Market to Try and Limit the Rupee's Fall
The Reserve Bank of India is reportedly intervening in the foreign‑exchange market to curb the rupee’s slide, keeping USD/INR near 94.95 despite rising oil prices. The currency has been pressured by higher crude costs and geopolitical tension in the Strait...
Will the ECB Shift Tack on the Digital Euro?
The European Central Bank is reconsidering its digital euro strategy, signaling a possible delay and a broader pilot that now includes retail‑payment scenarios. Officials cite the need to refine privacy safeguards, address regulatory uncertainties, and respond to growing competition from...
Luis De Guindos: Interview with Financial Times
ECB Vice‑President Luis de Guindos told the Financial Times that the current energy‑price shock differs from the 2021‑22 inflation surge, noting that monetary policy is now tightening and fiscal space is constrained. He cautioned against postponing decisions for academic debates and...
China Reflation Momentum Strengthens in April, Likely Keeping the PBOC on Hold
China’s April inflation data showed a rebound, with CPI rising to 1.2% YoY and PPI climbing to a 45‑month high of 2.8% YoY. Energy costs surged, pushing producer‑price inflation up 17.4% YoY, while food prices, especially pork, remained deflationary. Export...
Business Daily
Hundreds of thousands of Argentines are crossing the Andes each year to shop in Chile, where a favorable exchange rate makes well‑known clothing and electronics brands markedly cheaper. President Javier Milei’s recent economic reforms have tamed inflation, giving many Argentines extra...