Sweden's Riksbank Likely to Hike Rates Early Q4
Sweden’s central bank will probably raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points in the final quarter of this year, earlier than previously seen, according to a Bloomberg survey https://t.co/PwBoXFvnPE via @ottummelas https://t.co/zTKIbFmOaj
Dollar's Global Reserve Share Drops to 58%, Shrinking Big‑4 Dominance
The US dollar’s share of globally allocated foreign exchange reserves has fallen from over 70% in the late 1990s to approximately 58% today. This development pulls down the share of ‘Big 4’ currencies – inclusive of the dollar, euro, yen,...
Japan's Zero‑Rate Policy Fueled Global Yen Carry Trade
For decades, Japan was the foundation of one of the largest global macro trades in financial history: The “yen carry trade.” Japan kept interest rates near 0% for decades as the country battled deflation and weak economic growth. That created a...
Dollar Poised to Break Higher Amid Stable Euro, Sterling
US Dollar Threatening to Break Higher: The US dollar is trading quietly against the major currencies. The euro is holding above $1.17 and sterling is holding above $1.35, but the market does not appear done probing these support areas. The...
Central Banks Swap Dollar Reserves for Gold Surge
🧵#DEDOLLARIZATION DAILY: History is back, it brought gold, and the dollar is losing. The dollar isn't losing reserve dominance to the euro, yuan, or yen. It's losing to a metal. Deutsche Bank's research is unambiguous: ↳ Dollar share of global central bank reserves:...
Japan's FX Intervention Powerless Against Massive Carry Trade
This is why Japan's intervention efforts won't work. The MOF - via BOJ - are trying to fight risk appetite and a healthy carry trade. That represents a vastly larger pool of wealth than Japanese authorities have in FX reserves to...
China Ramps up Dollar Swaps to Curb Yuan Rise
Bloomberg is reporting a $3b (CNY 17.4b) increase in the use of PBOC swaps in Q1 ... Que forecasts of dollar doom In the first quarter China (PBOC and state banks) bought $180 of fx to keep the CNY from rising --...
High Inflation, Oil, Strong GDP: Bonds Remain Unattractive
Inflation running above expectations, oil holding above $90, Atlanta Fed GDPNow pointing to +3.7% GDP for 2Q'26 (thanks data center buildout)...difficult to make a bull case for bonds (or rate cuts) for the foreseeable future.
ESF Funds Favor Wealthy Allies,
if the $212b (counting ~ $175b in SDRs that Republicans historically haven't liked using) Exchange Stabilization Fund is going to be given to allies without a financial need (like the UAE) not everyone is going to be able to get...
XRP Offers BRICS a Sovereign, Unfrozen Settlement Layer
Governments will not use RLUSD. They want their own stablecoin, their own treasuries, their own interest. RLUSD is also an issued asset Ripple can freeze. XRP cannot be frozen, clawed back, or minted by anyone. Swift participation means you can...
Cleveland Fed Median CPI Jumps, 12‑month Rise Hits 2.8
The Cleveland Fed's median CPI was +0.40% in April, or 4.9% annualized. The 12-month median CPI ticked up to 2.8%, the first such increase since last summer. (The median CPI looks at the price change of the item sitting in the...
April CPI Won’t Shift Fed, New Chair Faces Tough Odds
April CPI won't change minds at the Fed. But more of this will complicate the dovish case, which has already flipped away from arguing for cuts and towards arguing against toying with hikes. It's a tough inheritance for a new Fed...
Rising CPI Makes Rate Cuts Hard for New Fed Chair
Latest CPI report underscores how tough it will be for Warsh to deliver cuts once he takes over as Fed chair. Core CPI is up 0.4% in April, or 2.8% compared to the same time last year. This comes on...
Markets Brace for Hotter US Inflation, Stocks Fall
🚨 US Inflation Report on Tap - Markets are bracing for a hotter inflation print: ⬇️ Stocks ⬇️ Gold ⬆️ USD ⬆️ Yields Here’s what everyone is watching 👇 CPI - MoM 0.6% forecast, 0.9% prior CPI - YoY 3.7% forecast, 3.3% prior CPI Core MoM -...
Dollar Weakens, Yields Rise: Loose Policy Warning
Dollar down, yields up. In normal times these are positively correlated. When they diverge and the currency weakens while bonds sell off, it's telling you policy is too loose. Japan has been ground zero for this dynamic. Watch closely to see...
Low‑Inflation Era Ends; Global Debt Pressures Rise
For the decade before COVID, we were all convinced inflation would always be low and so interest rates would always be low too. That's over. I talked about the global debt overhang and how the UK isn't an outlier in...
Ceasefire Uncertainty Dampens Risk, Lifts Dollar, Fuels Oil
Ceasefire is on "Life Support": Saps Risk Appetites, Buoys the Greenback: The uncertainty about the US-Iran fragile ceasefire, which President Trump has said is on “life support” is weighing on risk-taking appetites today. Brent and WTI are up over $3…...
USD Strength Amid Fragile Ceasefire Drags Markets Lower
$USD is bid. Fragility of ceasefire weighs on sentiment. Drags equities and bonds lower. PBOC set $USD fix at new multiyear low. Bessent and Japanese officials talk fx but $JPY falls to new 5-day low. US CPI on...
Hungary Aims to Meet Euro Criteria by 2030
Hungary to meet euro criteria by 2030, new finance minister says https://t.co/AN0YZs31Z6 via @ZoltanSimonBbg https://t.co/4UELJl5uXJ
ECB Must Intervene if Iran War Endangers Price Stability
ECB must act if Iran war threatens price stability, Nagel says https://t.co/XRboBjnoxo via @jrandow https://t.co/eWSZmFGVoL
Dollar Index Nears Correction Completion, Bullish Outlook Ahead
💵 Dollar Index (D1) Update 💵 I hope this week the Dollar Index completes its corrective move. 📉 After that, we’ll be looking for a bullish continuation for the long term. 📈🔥 Patience is key — let the market confirm the setup before...
Yen Surge Triggers Global Panic and Reverse Carry Trade
After the rest of the world panics on the surging Yen forcing the reverse carry trade.
Venezuela Still Holds World's Highest Inflation at 529%
#VNZWatch🇻🇪: Today, I measure Venezuela's inflation AS THE WORLD'S HIGHEST at a CRUSHING 529.1%/yr. That's down from a peak of 828.6%/yr on February 4th. YOU WON’T FIND THIS IMPORTANT STORY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA SPIN. https://t.co/BXznEebbH4
Warsh Nomination Sparks Fed Politicization, Prompting 10Y Selloff
Macro: Warsh nomination raises Fed politicization. Key: White House pressure, rate path, balance-sheet plans. Risk: policy uncertainty. Trade: shorten duration—sell 10Y Treasuries into June meeting. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Is China’s Reserve Shift Real Insight or Overfit?
Question for @EtraAlex and other students of the TIC data. Is this overfitting to the last known data point, or valuable new insight into where China's reserve holdings appear now that it is minimizing the use of US...
Dollar Shorts At Risk as Hawkish Fed Looms
I think dollar shorts are vulnerable here and I'm not sure DXY's next go at 100 is going to hold again. Economic data continues to show stabilization and improvement while inflation will worsen in the near-term. Hawkish is the path...
Korea Posts $300B Surplus Amid Record Won Weakness
Two things I never thought I would see: a $300b Korean current account surplus, and a $300b surplus paired with near record won weakness against the US dollar Strange times https://t.co/iSymq2hcGb
Central Banking Losing Relevance Amid Three Mega‑Trends
CENTRAL BANKING IN THE AGE OF THREE BIG MEGA-TRENDS: In today's newsletter, I wrote about our conversation with @economistmeg and why central banking (I think) feels less central to the big economic challenges that every country on earth seems to be...
Weekly Technical Outlook: DXY, Major Pairs & Gold
DXY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, Gold Weekly Technical Outlook (Webinar Archive) https://t.co/tjBoeaPmzX Asset Chaptered on YouTube: https://t.co/H9B0oCHc9Y
IMF Model Shows Yuan Undervalued About 25‑30%
With a realistic current account surplus number (one that takes out the 22 downward adjustment in the goods surplus and uses a realistic estimate of the income balance), the IMF's model would suggest a 25-30% undervaluation
Fed Signals Cuts, Market Expects 2027 Hike—New Chair Faces Mismatch
The blue line is what the Fed is communicating. 2 rate cuts this year. The orange line is what the market is pricing in, a rate HIKE by Summer 2027. Warsh starts as Fed Chairman on Friday. High on his agenda...
Mexico Delivers Final 15th Rate Cut to 6.50%
Global Central Bank Update: -Mexico cut rates for the 15th time in the cycle with a 25 bps move down to 6.50%. The board stated this will be the final cut in the easing cycle. https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ https://t.co/669sf1Lo6O
Rupee Slides, Markets Fear Spending Cuts Overlook Crisis
The markets did not like the commentary coming from the center on spending patterns. If we spend less and use less the economy slows down further. The centre of the problem is the rupee that lost another 85 paise today....
U.S. Oil Export Boom Turns Dollar Oily
The Dollar used to have a negative correlation with oil prices, but that was when the US was a net importer. About 5 years ago, the US transformed into a net exporter and so now higher oil prices lift the...
Central Banks Face Repeated Inflation Amid Supply Shocks
NEW ODD LOTS Monetary Policy in the Age of Supply Side Shocks @tracyalloway and I talk to the great Megan Greene —- always @economistmeg to us — about how central banks are dealing with one inflationary episode after another https://t.co/y1tj2H3kJm
Guindos Calls for Cautious Rate Policy Before Exit
ECB’s Guindos urges rate ‘prudence’ as he prepares to leave the central bank https://t.co/zrPWNMfuOi https://t.co/cCXOg02GW0
ECB Plans Two Rate Hikes in 2026 Amid Rising Inflation
ECB to hike rates twice in 2026 as inflation jumps, survey shows https://t.co/rmmGoo23tC via @NickHeubeck https://t.co/dLWVfE1Cc2
Yen Slides as Wall Street Rally Fuels Risk‑on Trade
JUST IN: The yen declined against most G-10 and Asian currencies in early trading amid mild risk-on sentiment from Wall Street’s rally last Friday.
Dollar Weakening Signals Imminent Rate Cuts and Market Shift
The recent behavior of the US dollar is increasingly consistent with a market anticipating intervention in the rates market ahead. Lower rates and a weaker dollar are no longer optional policies. They are becoming absolutely essential for the system to function under...
EU and India Sign Central Banking Cooperation MoU
🇪🇺🇮🇳 I met @RBI Governor Malhotra in Basel to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on cooperation in the field of central banking. Looking forward to continued good cooperation. Read the press release https://t.co/uFmnxvTaFg https://t.co/uCVDSJtddt
Questioning Flawed Research on Banks' Dollar Holdings
Mr. Balding needs to back up his assertion here -- What part is wrong? The increase in banks foreign assets? The SCB's rising dollar holdings (in SAFE's data) The policy banks' dollar lending (from AIDdata) 1/2 https://t.co/bGHKNMvvNj
Yen Surge Could Trigger Oil Price Crash
Japan's Yen Surge: The Oil Shock Threat Explained. We explore the real risk of a 'tail event' from Japan, focusing on a potential Yen surge and its devastating impact on oil prices. Discover the economic domino effect. TailEvent #YenSurge #JapanEconomy...
Tokyo Faces Only Panic Hike or Yen Collapse
🎯 “the 160 line is going to break, and the next time it breaks, Tokyo’s response options collapse to two: a panic BoJ hike that detonates the bond market, or sit back and watch the yen go to 165, then 170....
China's Central Bank Adds Gold for 18th Month
After adding 5 tons of gold to its war chest in March, the People’s Bank of China purchased another 8.1 tons in April. This marks the 18th consecutive month that China has increased its gold reserves. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/jPZkT7Ljpc
Smart Money Takes Liquidity, Guessing Loses Profits
No control = no profits. Liquidity was taken. Structure shifted. Smart money executed. Are you still guessing entries? #ForexReels #SmartMoneyTrading #ICTSetup #TradingReels #reels
Reserve Currency Shift Drops DJIA 45% Amid 10× Debt Rise
Agree, on both the impact of going broke in the reserve currency & "denominator blindness": Since the March 1972 date of that article, DJIA (which benefits from survivorship bias) is down 45% in terms of the prior world reserve currency (gold,...
UK Yields Exceed Italy, Not a Weakness, ECB Cap Effect
The UK's long-term gov't bond yields (lhs) are now far above those of Italy (rhs). This doesn't mean the UK is in worse shape. It's just a reflection of past ECB actions to aggressively cap Italian yields. I talked about...
Strong US Data Yet Dollar Declines, Signaling Regime Shift
I'm doing a live stream at 9 am (ET) this morning. I'll talk about how much the Dollar is falling and how we're seeing mounting signs of regime change, whereby strong US data see the Dollar fall. That's how it...
Brazilian Real Leads EM Gains, Set to Dip Below 4.50
The Brazilian Real is now the best-performing EM currency since the start of the war, leaving aside the Hungarian Forint, which is idiosyncratic and about Orban losing the election. The Real has a lot further to go and - unlike...
Dollar Declines vs EM Despite No Peace Deal
It's remarkable how much the Dollar is falling versus EM (blue), even though we don't even have a peace deal yet. Dollar down is a really high-conviction trade that people are putting on already now because they know they'll get...