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Every morning
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Tuesday recap
Stocks and bonds may fall again while the dollar gains after deceptively upbeat US jobs data. #NFP #Stocks #Dollar #Macro #Trading #IranWar https://t.co/bSlTNo7Fkg
Everyone focuses on U.S. money printing. But China has quietly been just as aggressive—if not more.
Egypt’s inflation rate is 13.4%/yr. That’s above its inflation target of 3-7%/yr. Egypt’s money supply just came in at 16.9%/yr. That's ABOVE Hanke's Golden Growth Rate of 11.1-15.1%/yr, consistent with hitting its inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY STORY....
Iranians accepting EUR....or French paying in CNY (after selling gold to China to get CNY)?
A few months ago, I wrote about how upside data surprises weren't lifting the Dollar anymore. Today is a case in point. Big upside surprise to payrolls and the Dollar does basically nothing. We're seeing regime change for the Dollar...
ECB’s Simkus says it is too early to call the outcome of April’s meeting https://t.co/GyAjrsyZA3 via @mseput https://t.co/uL1RzTuL18
The last thing the word needed this morning was strong US data. But that's what we got. A +1.5 standard deviation surprise on payrolls that's pushed up the 2-year yield 5 basis points, which is broadly in line with its...
The week ending Wednesday was the first in six weeks that foreign central banks did not draw on their custody holdings (Treasuries and Agencies) at the Federal Reserve. In fact, their holdings increased by almost $3.3 bln. See https://t.co/VPY5kkVh5i
Risk of Escalation Discourages Risk Taking while US Jobs Report May Extend the Dollar's Narrow Ranges: The shroud of the Middle East war overhangs the Good Friday holiday. The attack on an Iranian bridge yesterday threatens a response in kind...
Wave Analysis is more often than not ahead of trend reversals. If done correctly you will experience that news follows. So was the case with USDINR, where we published the following post on 27/03/26 on Indiacharts. We could not have...
We still have NFPs tomorrow - which can generate volatility through thinned liquidity - but by and large the market is done for the week. What to expect next week? Wild Market Volatility Likely to Continue Through Holiday Conditions https://t.co/cnoL8Uiqb5
amazing writeup on japan's public sector balance sheet, net debt, and massive sovereign carry trade. https://t.co/JTMMXBfCKu
With rate cuts being priced out of the market, the dollar index has strengthened from 95.6 to 100.5. I think the dollar’s recent strength has more to do with US rates than with geopolitics, and my guess is that the...
They’ll hold a meeting, realize they can’t open it if the US couldn’t, & then just agree to pay Iran in CNY… …and the easiest/only way to secure CNY is by buying physical gold in USD and selling that gold to...
Swiss Franc Forecast: USD/CHF Rally Hits Yearly High- Breakout Levels in Sight https://t.co/eNkhFNaLMN Short Video Breakdown: https://t.co/hWbiKrYO6e $USDCHF Weekly Chart https://t.co/bxIE9pEJrt
Factoring in gold, I estimate Turkey has intervened to the tune of $40 bn in March 2026 to defend the Lira. That's the same as in March and April 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu, an episode that ended...
also interesting that sovereign spreads have widened—you’ve seen terms of trade differentiation in FX but sov debt has been slower to price differing country-by-country macro fundamentals
No change to our Signals on Global Currency Vol = Long USD, Short EUR/USD, etc. https://t.co/eqe6yGF4IT
The WERO cross border interoperability is what matters most. Wero, Euro stablecoins, the Euro CBDC, and the EU ID; are foundational and will have network effects.
Bailey says traders are getting ahead of themselves on BOE rate hike bets https://t.co/eeKELZndt9 via @tomelleryrees https://t.co/kDqxSw5RoE
#USD giving a stretch after President Trump's speech. First test here at the slope confluence just shy of 100. . Key resistance still 100.15/35 Near-term bullish inval still 99.49/53 $DXY 240min Chart
The US Dollar Index $USD $DXY failed at 100.50.. but finished off the lows today.. part of my Q2 intermarket outlook on @stockcharts https://t.co/qdLp18p3Jz https://t.co/XJ3rTFsHGI
Interesting FX Option Expirations Tomorrow 1.4 bln euros at $1.1650 $1.7 bln JPY159 and $1.5 bln at JPY160 A$1.14 bln at $0.6900.
Rbi saw that banks moved their positions to corporates or perhaps related parties and have said: Banks can't offer ndf rupee contracts to anyone If you close a contract from now, no rebooking, even if it's a deliverables contract. Banks can't deal...
Good Setser thread on a recent report on global imbalances. By the way, if the RMB is indeed 20-30% undervalued, that is the functional equivalent of a 25-43% tariff on all imports and a 20-30% subsidy on all exports. The Trump...
Let’s try to catch the reversal move on GBPUSD. 🎯 🔻 Buy Limit: 1.32787 🛑 Stop Loss: 1.32184 🎯 Take Profit: 1.33952
i've said it before and i'll say it again, the U.S. dollar index $DXY has got to be one of the most boring 🥱🥱🥱charts out there... and my enthusiasm feels inversely correlated to those that like to prognoticate about it......
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem: “I expect the current setting of the policy rate will remain appropriate for some time.” "I could support additional easing if a greater risk of a weakening labor market becomes apparent, provided inflation and inflation...
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Wed, Apr 1 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Crude Oil Inventories: Est 1.8 | Prior 6.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI: Est 52.3 | Prior 52.4 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 62 | Est 41 | Prior 66 🟢 ─────── 💰 MAG 7 EARNINGS None this week 🏛️...
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐓𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐲 𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐈𝐧𝐝𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐲 In my latest interview on @ndtv , India's leading English-language business news channel, I break down 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐚'𝐬 90% 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥: 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. China builds...
Hope Boosts Risk Appetites and Drags the Greenback Lower: Hope springs eternal, and the capital markets are trading on hope that the Middle East war ends shortly, even as missiles continue to be fired in the region. President Trump again...
$DXY monthly - Closed above the 10 month MA. The 3 year cycle low in January is confirmed. The rising phase of the previous 3 year cycles lasted at least 18 months, so the Dollar is likely to move higher...
South Sudan’s government hasn’t produced RELIABLE MONEY SUPPLY DATA since October 2024. SOUTH SUDAN = NO RELIABLE DATA = FLYING BLIND https://t.co/nPGh0aY8rq
Is this what passes as scholarship at the @OMFIF these days? "Don’t kill cash - OMFIF" No CBDC-building nation has proposed the elimination of cash. Look at China and India as examples of the two largest. Both...
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Libyan dinar ranks as the WORLD'S 5TH WORST CURRENCY. The dinar has depreciated by over 26% against the USD in the past year. LIBYA = ANOTHER REGIME CHANGE FAILURE = A FAILED STATE. https://t.co/3GHuHYqn9N
I sat down with @GoldSwitzerland partner Matthew Piepenburg, a former hedge fund trader who made millions during the dot-com bubble at 28, and author of "Rigged to Fail." Gold just crashed 25%. He says buy more. "Gold is not rising to an...
With so many big reports this week, here’s some tips on how to trade them
JUST IN: Analysts predict the Indian rupee could drop to a record 100 against the dollar or further if the Iran crisis persists.
"Foreign central banks sell US Treasuries in wake of Iran war" https://t.co/B4oQiLaXmS "Foreign central banks are selling US bonds at a time when the Treasury market is already under pressure as traders worry that the Middle East conflict could drive...
Foreign central banks have cut their holdings of Treasuries at the New York Fed to the lowest level since 2012. The selling has come as oil importers like Turkey, Thailand and India raise cash through asset sales to prop up...
SNB sold currencies in the final quarter in potential buoy for the franc https://t.co/pLEKZ4nQQm via @bbenrath https://t.co/q6YkgIMsAJ
Wild story: President appoints someone to the central bank recommended by his own finance minister. The appointee resists the president's demands to approve bigger rate cuts, and now the president says he "stupidly" followed the minister's advice, leading to "the...
Well, there are a lot of meanings of global reserves currency that go beyond the currency held in formal foreign exchange reserves. But the yuan's share of reserves has actually slipped over the last 5 years 1/2 https://t.co/h07pcXMaYn
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Rally Nears Key Resistance- Breakout or Reversal? https://t.co/ypoVnQZs85 $EURUSD Daily & 240min Charts https://t.co/uyx4RRC6OM
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid: Inflation expectations have been low because the central bank has previously acted to make sure inflation will stay low. "It is now our job to follow through with policy actions that validate those expectations."
Dollar reserves held by the world's central banks rose a bit in q4 -- But the broad story remains one of modest reserves growth relative to the global economy, or the pace of reserves growth from 03 to 13 1/ https://t.co/B7D4KndRLn
When an empire runs out of its own money, it is able to increase the supply of money. However, printing more money causes borrowing to increase creating a financial bubble. I urge you to watch “Principles for Dealing with the...
The vol controllers are definitely trying to strengthen the Yen here to make the US dollar go lower. They know the USD wrecking ball was at a point it was about to wreak havoc if it broke higher. JPY/USD most important currency...
JUST IN: South Korean Won falls to weakest level against the U.S. dollar since 2009
Macro: EUR/JPY rebounds; USDX falls. Factors: hourly convergence, ATR 102 vs 90d 115 pips. Risk: USDX reversal, JOLTS. Insight: Buy the small pullback; target 183.86. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
