CPI Data and Yen Moves Dominate Upcoming Week
Week ahead highlights: US and PRC CPI, Bessent talks $JPY in Japan, and G2 summit in Beijing. After ordering Fed to check exchange rates in Jan, Bessent quiet on recent BOJ intervention. Outcome of Xi-Trump likely minimal. See https://t.co/zirQa6cj3j https://t.co/v2xXLyn2a8
Reverse Carry Trade Starts, Yen Rescue Underway
I'm right. They are preparing to save the Yen. I'm fucking right. Phase 1 of the reverse carry trade HAS begun. Like and repost if you fucking understand this.
Goldman Delays Final Fed Cuts to Late 2026, Early 2027
“We are pushing back the final two Fed rate cuts in our forecast by one quarter to December 2026 and March 2027.” - Goldman
Consumer Sentiment Misses, Jobs Beat Estimates, Unemployment Steady
📊 Pre-Market Brief | Fri, May 8 ─────── 📅 MACRO DATA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Act 48.2 | Est 49.7 | Prior 49.8 🔴 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: Act 0.2 | Est 0.3 | Prior 0.2 🔴 Non-Farm Employment Change: Act 115 | Est 65...
Weak Dollar Boosts Bitcoin and Risk‑On Assets
Dollar Breakdown Keeps Fueling Bitcoin and Risk-On Equity Rotation Short USD. Short Treasuries. Long the Quad Shift. ⚡💵 While Tourists panic around every $SPY tick, the real Macro move remains the same: ⬇️ Dollar ⬇️ Bonds ⬆️ Bitcoin ⬆️ Risk Assets https://t.co/94qOuTSIrQ
Half of Fed Forecasters Now Expect No Rate Cuts This Year
More sell-side firms and Fed watchers are removing/delaying cuts from their outlook, including a couple forecasters after the April NFP. Half now see no cuts this year (and risks are clearly tilted to this group continuing to grow given inertial...
Dollar's Reserve Role Erodes as Allies Shift Amid NATO Tensions
'US dollar as reserve currency has been in long-term decline. Lists a long list of contributing factors, notably also states that if history is any guide, countries keep reserves with allies, and NATO tensions may negative impact Treasury holdings.' @B_Eichengreen...
Korea, Taiwan Post Record Surpluses Amid Currency Weakness
The surpluses of Korea and Taiwan this year will be incredible The fact that these surpluses coincide with a historically weak Korean won and continued deep weakness in the Taiwan dollar is most interesting
Powell Warns Removal Power Threatens Fed Independence
David Wilcox points out Powell, without being explicitly asked about, pointed to the governors' ability to remove regional Fed Presidents as a risk to independence in his latest press conference. @HooverInst https://t.co/J4Uy69mrei https://t.co/Q0ltpyO3sf
ECB Fears Euro Stablecoins Due to Dollar Deficit
In today's Daily Peg, I allege that the ECB's real paranoia about euro-denominated stablecoins stems from a fundamental and structural dollar deficit across the eurosystem. https://t.co/2oIVNDBppn
Kevin Warsh Struggles to Push Rate Cuts At
It’s getting harder for Kevin Warsh to come into the Fed and push for rate cuts, if he even still wants them…
April Jobs Data Frees Fed to Focus on Inflation
The April jobs report allows the Fed to sweat over inflation (as opposed to inflation *and* jobs) https://t.co/6iYFTTwKfI
ECB Relieved by EURUSD Rally, Fears Below 1.05
It won't move the needle for the ECB in June, but it's a relief for the bank that EURUSD is rallying, all the same. Nightmare for them would be a trap door to 1.05 or lower exacerbating imported inflation.
US Jobs Surge, Defying Slowdown; Fed Rate Hopes Rise
US NFPs beat expectations and pushes back against economic slowdown concerns. April net jobs +115K vs +62K expected and +185K previously. Jobless rate holds at 4.3% That will further boost Fed expectations but wont dissuade the President from calls of cuts to...
April NFP Surpasses Forecast, Unemployment Steady at 4.3%
April Non-Farm Payrolls print at 115K vs expected 65K- Previously 185K Unemployment Holds 4.3% as expected #NFP
US Jobs Boosted as Dollar Slides Post‑Tariff Ruling
US Jobs on Tap after Court Ruled Against Section 122 Tariffs and Conflict in the Middle East: After recovering in the North American afternoon for the second consecutive session yesterday, the dollar has been sold again in Asia and Europe...
USD Softens Pre‑jobs Report as Markets Ignore Europe Woes
$USD has a softer profile today, ahead of the jobs report. The mkt appears to have largely shrugged off the sharp defeat of Labour in UK local elections and an unexpected decline in German industrial output. Tensions running high in...
BoJ JGB Purchases Neutralize FX Intervention, Yen Slides
The Yen is already falling again. Markets know Japan's official FX intervention can't work as long as the BoJ is buying JGBs to cap yields. That JGB buying puts depreciation pressure on the Yen, so intervention just gives markets a...
Turkey's Self‑imposed Dollar Peg Drains FX Reserves
Across all EMs, Turkey has seen by far the biggest drop in official FX reserves. That's an entirely self-inflicted wound and reflects the decision to keep the Lira pegged to the Dollar through a shock where it should obviously have...
Stablecoins and Money's Future at LatAm Forum
Follow live from 09:00 CET as I speak at the LatAm Economic Forum, organised by @BancoDeEspana. I will discuss stablecoins and the future of money. Watch here https://t.co/qunwAimIBw
Peso Rebounds as Oil Prices Tumble
Big reversal in FX markets this week. Philippine Peso outperforms after hitting new lows week prior. Helps that oil's off highs a lot https://t.co/7lfET7ggd4
Mocking Jeff: Buy Gold, Short The
So Jeff. Just buy gold and short the dollar bro. Cuz you have lost your mind https://t.co/N6gmcw3inN
Rial Rebounds Sharply From Lows Despite 10‑day Decline
The Iranian rial’s performance over the last few days: 1. Today, depreciated 0.5% against the USD. 2. Appreciated 9.1% vs. the USD from all-time lows 3 days ago. 3. In the last 10 days, depreciated 9.5% against the USD https://t.co/RcBXFmfctl
Russia Sells Ruble, Buys Yuan to Curb Appreciation
Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, oil prices have SURGED & so has the value of the Russian ruble. To prevent the ruble from excessive strengthening, Russia is SELLING the ruble & BUYING foreign currency, primarily the Chinese yuan. https://t.co/zThMoq7cun
Milei's Dollarization Needed to Tame Inflation
As I’ve said since day one, if Milei failed to dollarize Argentina, he wouldn’t be able to control inflation. INFLATION = MILEI’S ACHILLES' HEEL. https://t.co/Fhu9f7yOmX
USD/JPY Bounces Off Support, Intervention Risk Rising
Japanese Yen Forecast: USD/JPY Rebounds From Support - Intervention Risk Looms https://t.co/Wr1aKaid7z $USDJPY Weekly Chart https://t.co/OHUmJ1XLuA
NY Fed Inflation Expectations Hit 3.6%, Markets Unfazed
The New York Fed's consumer inflations expectations measure advanced to 3.6% - matching the highest reading since Sep 2023. Markets were already factoring in the inflation uptick it seems. No pop from the Dollar and Fed Fund futures forecast for 2026...
RMB Gains Won’t Damp China’s Trade Advantage
The mild appreciation of the RMB is unlikely to have much impact on trade flows. China's price advantage is greater than CNY gains and demand for many other products (solar panels, rare earths, e.g.) may not be sensitive to fx....
Bank of Israel Must Surprise Markets Amid Soaring Shekel
With the shekel continuing to rise, people are asking what would Stanley Fischer have done. My post from 2010 on @SeekingAlpha explains the Fischer model for Central Bankers. And yes I think the Bank of Israel needs to do something to...
USD/CHF Tests Key Support Level, Consolidates Near Lows
Quick video update on the $USDCHF levels. . . now testing pivotal support. Swiss Franc Technical Analysis: USD/CHF Consolidates Near Lows https://t.co/YruIQYWlBW On YouTube: https://t.co/5NwMBRKBKT
Post‑Conflict Shift: Dollar and Oil Down, Gold and Stocks Up
Well, the post-conflict playbook seems pretty straightforward: 📉 Weaker US Dollar $USD 📉 Weaker crude oil $USO 📈 Stronger gold $GLD 📈 Stronger stocks $SPX But how orderly of a rotation would this be?... https://t.co/v0gH0FDkW3
Yuan Gains Accelerate, Offshore up 5% Last Year
The Yuan's Quiet Rise and Next Week's Summit: The offshore yuan appreciated nearly 5% against the dollar last year. The onshore yuan gained about 4.25%. This year has picked up were 2025 left off. Through yesterday, the offshore yuan has...
RMB Quietly Hits Three-Year High Amid Geopolitical Chatter
The RMB has quietly appreciated to its best level in 3 years. While Bessent says he will discuss the weak yen when he is in Tokyo next week, the exchange rate is unlikely to be featured in next week's Trump-Xi...
Investors Expect Iran War Shock to Fade Soon
Investors remain hopeful that the supply shock spurred by the war on Iran will end shortly. $USD is softer. It does look as if the BOJ intervened again yesterday but $JPY is flat today. Norway hiked. Mexico to cut...
Norges Bank Joins BoJ, RBA in G10 Rate Hikes
The Norges Bank becomes the third G10 central bank to hike rates in this cycle, after the BoJ and the RBA. https://t.co/YsiMv6xS3J
US Treasury Secretary to Meet Japan on Weakening Yen
JUST IN: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent will meet Japan’s prime minister, finance minister, and BOJ governor to discuss the falling yen during his visit next week.
Rupee Hits Record Low Amid US‑Israeli Iran Conflict
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: Thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran, yesterday, the rupee reached a new ALL-TIME LOW to ₹95.43/USD. It all brings back one of Oscar Wilde’s most famous lines: “The chapter on the Fall of the Rupee you may omit. It...
Milei's Fiscal Discipline Stalls Without FX Reserve Growth
Milei's commitment to fiscal balance (aided by a relatively low interest burden) is clear -- His kryptonite has been Argentina's inability to generate a sustained increase in its foreign exchange reserves 1/ https://t.co/yJLGDJnIV8
Democrats Block Bill, Paving Way for Digital Dollar
Senate Democrats just blocked the bill that would’ve stopped the Fed from creating a CBDC. Read between the lines... They WANT a government-controlled digital dollar. Every transaction tracked. Every purchase monitored. Less financial freedom. https://t.co/8IBwE1aOwz
Watch the Pound; Its Drop Signals Game Over
The thing to watch is the £ When that starts dropping significantly, the game is up.
BRL Set to Slip Below 4
The Brazilian Real $/BRL exchange rate during the oil spike in 2022 never quite made it below my 4.50 fair value. But it will during the current oil shock... https://t.co/6FPSc1Z02s https://t.co/jVERTF9raD
Control Liquidity, Gain Consistency: Follow Smart Money
🔥 NO CONTROL = NO CONSISTENCY Most traders fail because they ignore liquidity. ✔️ Liquidity sweep ✔️ MSS confirmation ✔️ OB entry ✔️ Expansion 📌 This is the real game. Follow smart money… not emotions. #ForexReels #SMCTrading #ICTForex #TradingStrategy #reels
NY Fed Index Hits Covid-Level Supply Chain Disruptions
🇺🇸 The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index jumped in April to Covid-like disruption levels. https://t.co/ywfPzNS5oq https://t.co/23NKq4esGS
AUD/USD Breakout: Strength Rises, Resistance Limits Upside
Quick video update on the $AUDUSD levels with this breakout. AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Strength Builds but Resistance Could Cap Upside https://t.co/6bp77tR4bf On YouTube: https://t.co/xX81PHGyYq
Argentina Must Cut Rates, Keep ARS Short-Term
Macro: Argentina needs lower rates to re-access markets; persistent inflation and no new debt constrain easing. Risk: sticky inflation delays cuts. Trade: prefer short-duration ARS exposure until clear disinflation. — Viktor Kopylov, PhD, CFA More insights: t.me/si14Kopylov
Powell Defended Fed Independence, yet Made Costly Mistakes
Just published: My take on Jerome Powell’s complicated legacy--one of resilience in defending Fed independence, weighed against missed opportunities to enhance effectiveness and costly errors beyond just monetary policy. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/powell-legacy-fed-defender-but-also-policy-mistakes-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-05 #economy #federalreserve #markets @prosyn
Dollar Poised to Weaken Once War Ends
Regardless of whether the latest headlines are true or not, they're a natural experiment for how the Dollar will trade when the war ends. The Dollar is back down to near its pre-war lows against EM. As soon as war...
Japan's Finance Ministry Likely Intervened in Yen Again
Japanese markets were closed overnight but looks like the Ministry of Finance may have intervened in the Japanese Yen again? Size of the move questionable. Thoughts? 👇 https://t.co/T1WsdkfFDF
Staggering EM Reserve Losses Expose Policy Failures
The scale of EM reserve losses during this shock is staggering. More than anything, that tells you about policy dysfunction in certain EMs. Turkey kept its peg to USD, so it had no choice but to intervene a ton. Pakistan...
Trump Suspends
TACO Delivered a Day after Cinco De Mayo: There is one overarching fundamental development today that is driving the risk-on in the capital markets and weighing on the dollar. President Trump announced the US was suspending its new escort service...