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Every morning
Weekly
Tuesday recap
On this week's Hanke's #CurrencyWatchlist, the Venezuelan bolivar ranks as the WORLD'S WORST currency. The bolivar has depreciated by over 83% against the USD in the past year. VENEZUELA’S TOP PRIORITY = OFFICIAL DOLLARIZATION. https://t.co/AUN4GLdvgF
Market continues to be a Rollercoaster hand made for scalping all day join us to see how we do it 9am Live Trading NY Open https://t.co/K8PKB2mO53 via @YouTube
$Eur approaching $1.15. Between today and tomorrow around 6.5 bln euros of options expire. $GBP approaching $1.3250 where GBP650 mln options expire today. https://t.co/bSx6eAhEKQ
🇪🇺 Euro area HICP flash estimate came in below expectations, with both core goods (-23bp) and services inflation (-13bp) down in March. Early days, focus will be any signs of second-round effects, etc etc. https://t.co/AaktjkVaKZ
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe hasn't officially released M2 Money Supply data since December 2025. ZIM = A MASTERCLASS IN POOR ECONOMIC DATA. https://t.co/19E41X3pxN
Indeed no Treasury has ever said "stop monetizing debt, that's inflationary." It is the independent central bank's job to push back on debt monetization.
The Bank of England continues to be among the few major central banks to warn about the adverse effects of persistent trade imbalances. Although most models used by economists assume that trade is balanced, or is unbalanced only temporarily before...
Today, in a speech at Harvard, Fed Chair Powell claimed that QE (the explosion of the money supply) did not cause inflation, nor did it contribute to the massive increase in US income inequality post-COVID. Those statements are blatantly UNTRUE. THE FED...
Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went...
Since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the Iranian rial has APPRECIATED by 9% against the USD. AN IMPORTANT FACT THAT THE WESTERN MEDIA HAS FAILED TO REPORT ON. https://t.co/Dlt04mOOmJ
Status of US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency: USD Share Drops to 31-Year Low as Central Banks Diversify into Other Currencies & Gold. The spike of the “non-traditional reserve currencies.” https://t.co/cHnT24iCcd https://t.co/kINZT79BbA
Dollar seems like it wants to rip... 105.50 target if so $USD $UUP $DXY @stockcharts https://t.co/UiwZRpV53z
Month end comes at a most interesting time for the DXY. The market was super complacent in early March and now appears to be hedged a fair bit as risk reversals have blown out in EURUSD etc (bid for EUR puts). I...
Euro is poised for worst quarter since 2024 as oil shock bites https://t.co/Z3N3DfLpbB via @vkaramanis_fx https://t.co/yjLvpdnvVF
The danger for Turkey is always the same. The current government pushes growth way above the speed limit, which leads to a large current account deficit. Then a shock like high oil prices hits and things run out of control....
Turkey's reserve losses rival March 2025 after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. They're up in the most recent data point only because the central bank used its gold to get access to more foreign exchange. In March 2025 this ended...
US Dollar's Advance Continues but Verbal Threats Lift the Yen: The Middle East war rages on. The Houthis have entered the fray and there is risk that it shuts the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. Aluminum and steel facilities have been reportedly...
$USD is mostly firmer. $JPY is the notable exception. Escalated verbal intervention and news that the BOJ would consider a larger than usual rater move, have encouraged a pullback from around JPY160.40. NY may be less worried about intervention....
🇪🇺Another unsurprising yet unpleasant chart, showing a sharp rise in European consumer inflation expectations. Expectations from companies were much more contained though. The bigger focus will be on potential second round effects, too early to tell. https://t.co/zQ567go12i
Lots of talk about oil exporters in the Gulf selling fx reserves. That may happen. But for now the visible fall in fx reserves is coming from the oil importers (CBRT = Turkey, RBI= India) https://t.co/8prQkznGG6
Japan will panic. I’m fucking right. This is the reverse carry trade catalyst. It always was. I never wavered. I went through hell. I suffered managing funds in a horrible cycle that didn’t favor them. Enough. Enough. Enough. I will not relent. It’s my time now.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) sits at an uncomfortable precipice. It’s not been this weak since the 1980s when the Japanese stock market collapsed.
Just relax about this supposed 4,000 crore loss on FX unwinding. Just in the past month the INR has depreciated by over 4%. All these positions would not have been set up for the first time at Friday 27th close....
Good thing the Fed has plenty of room to tighten conditions to address this… Oh wait…. https://t.co/xZ0zMju2vr https://t.co/uMkuuXymWU
Turkey is selling gold to support the lira. Over the past two weeks, the central bank has sold around 58 tons (~$8 billion). At the same time, since 2020, Turkey has been among the top three gold buyers (alongside China and Poland)....
The “weaponization of the dollar” has profound implications for financial plumbing, the dollar itself, and investment flows—including gold. @edwardfishman’s Chokepoints is a must-read on history/key players/dynamics. Thanks @nfergus for the recommendation. https://t.co/4AcmzUniud
The faster UAE closes money window on Iran, quicker China becomes Iran's banker. 1)China pays for Iranian oil into Chnse bank accts2) Iran buys gold w CNY in Shanghai's CNY gold mkt & do what Russia did w China after...
The Dollar downtrend has now been meaningfully disrupted. But that doesn't mean it's over. As soon as this war ends - and it must because of the midterms - Dollar weakness will reassert itself. EM commodity exporters like Brazil will...
Stagflationary winds and the biggest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022, the global economic and financial fallout of the Middle East War are tangible. This week’s data deluge will help us assess how much resilience remains in...
A recurrent theme since war began is that central banks are selling gold. That's mostly not true, but there is one central bank that did. Turkey's gold holdings have fallen 50 tons in recent weeks. But Turkey is an outlier...
This week is packed with market moving data but Iran War will remain a key focus 👇 🇺🇸 US -Retail Sales -Non-Farm Payrolls -ADP -Chicago PMI -ISM Mfg -Confidence -Trade 🇪🇺 EZ -EZ CPI & GE CPI -Confidence -GE Retail Sales -GE Unemployment 🇬🇧 UK -GDP 🇨🇦 CA -GDP -Trade 🇦🇺 AU -RBA Minutes -Trade 🇯🇵 JP -CPI -Retail Sales -Tankan
Bulgaria’s FORCED ADOPTION of the Euro was supposed to benefit Bulgaria. Instead, inflation sits at 3.32%/yr, WELL ABOVE the ECB's 2%/yr inflation target. As the Father of Bulgaria’s currency board, I predicted this. https://t.co/c3KVbZZNxx
Half the annual borrowing in half the year is completely in line with estimates. A crisis may also need additional borrowing, let's see. Rbi will also announce a pay out soon and the balance sheet is way too large, hope...
Japan’s inflation eases to 1.26%/yr in February, BELOW its inflation target of 2%/yr. Japan’s money supply (M2) is growing at 1.73%/yr, WELL BELOW Hanke’s Golden Growth Rate of ~6.07%/yr, consistent w/ Japan’s 2%/yr inflation target. THE INFLATION STORY = A MONEY SUPPLY...
the idea that the privilege of the reserve currency automatically guts the domestic industrial base was true when the world was globalizing, there was one supply chain, and the law of one price was intact. Those days are over....
The war in Iran has set off a chain of events, with soaring oil prices driving higher inflation expectations, lower rate cut odds, and a pullback in precious metals.
The last time we had a supply shock and oil prices rose - in 2022 - Italy and Spain got the ECB to cap their yields to survive and the UK bond market blew up in the LDI crisis. If...
RBI has directed banks to reduce their holdings of Dollar (USD) positions. • RBI has set a maximum Net Open Position (NOP) limit of $100 million for banks. • This means banks can now hold no more than $100 million...
Note sent to clients. Overall macro synthesis and update based on war related conditions impact and pricing. What we are doing about it is for clients only. Based on all things happening in the world my macro view is...
New monthly drops. https://t.co/FItBCcQzTd Trade wars, kinetic wars, and anticipated policy responses ripple through the capital markets. Optimism of short war contrasts with pricing in aggressive CB policy. https://t.co/qPeHeyxa7a
#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: It's hard to beat gold as a central bank reserve. Turkey is reportedly using its HOARD of gold reserves in swap operations to obtain liquidity and defend the Turkish Lira. BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS. https://t.co/rVUGXc6WeD
#IndiaWatch🇮🇳: The Indian rupee has PLUNGED to a RECORD LOW. Thanks to the US and Israel's attack on Iran, India is paying a high cost. MODI SHOULD SEND THE BILL TO WASHINGTON DC AND JERUSALEM. https://t.co/T9AjFXiDVU
How the west was won, the MidEast was lost & $4100/oz gold held https://t.co/VJQ1W1pdz5 #forex #XAUUSD $GLD
As I mentioned on Wednesday, there is a $3 trillion gap between China's accumulated current account surplus since the pandemic and China's unchanged reserves (and a corresponding gap in visible flows into the US) Bank flows make up most of the...
Hot take: the next drawdown won’t be “a recession.” It’ll be a liquidity accident. Dollar firm. FX carry crowded. Credit tightens quietly. Then everyone acts shocked. Markets don’t blow up from headlines. They blow up from plumbing. https://t.co/oS1ebUhkzJ
Euro Q2 Outlook: EUR/USD Selloff Accelerates – Where Is the Bottom? https://t.co/tcAqDgTQxZ $EURUSD Weekly & Monthly Charts https://t.co/o5x5v4BsVL
OUT NOW - Former PIMCO Sovereign Credit Head on Iran War's global stagflation shock & risks for sovereign bonds. EM central banks don't have luxury of "seeing through" $100 oil - many will feel pressure to hike Apple 🔊https://t.co/FbjlbTwSHF Spotify📽️https://t.co/BWmky8uYIF https://t.co/eMPzAa5H18
30 year base in the Yen and it's about to breakout higher...US Dollar wrecking ball locked & loaded at the same time the geopolitics won't allow for a release of global dollar liquidity. @crossbordercap What say you?! @SantiagoAuFund What're you seeing? https://t.co/pGBvvssGL6
For the first time since July 2024, $USD has pushed above JPY160. It almost reached JPY160.40, which we suggested was needed to confirm a breakout. The BOJ & MOF officials I have spoken with seem more sophisticated that draw an...
In my latest Telegraph column I defend the dollar by channelling @TomCruise’s Maverick. To the claim that the dollar is probably headed for extinction, I say: Maybe so. But not today. https://t.co/lTW4ry33Lp https://t.co/q9PtKebSYk
