Has Concern Over Hormuz Made Us Forget The Red Sea?

Key Takeaways

• Ethiopia's AFNM unites four Amhara militias.
• AFNM gains arms from Eritrea, some TPLF factions.
• UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China eye Red Sea dominance.
• Egypt backs Ethiopian separatists to protect Nile water rights.
• Red Sea trade risk rises as Hormuz focus wanes.

Pulse Analysis

The Red Sea‑Suez corridor rivals the Strait of Hormuz in strategic weight, channeling roughly one‑third of global maritime trade and a significant share of oil shipments. While policymakers have fixated on Persian Gulf tensions, the Red Sea’s security landscape is becoming increasingly volatile, driven by a confluence of local insurgencies and external power plays. This shift matters because any disruption can trigger cascading effects on shipping costs, insurance premiums, and supply‑chain reliability for manufacturers and consumers worldwide.

At the heart of the emerging threat is Ethiopia’s internal turmoil. The Amhara Fano National Movement, a coalition of four regional militias, has coalesced under a historic “Arbegna” banner, signaling a renewed push for broader political influence and, potentially, a claim to Ethiopia’s historic Red Sea coastline. Backed by Eritrean weaponry and support from fragmented Tigray People's Liberation Front factions, the AFNM is amassing combat capability near Addis Ababa, raising the prospect of a domestic conflict spilling onto the maritime domain. The Ethiopian government’s reliance on Gulf allies for political and economic backing further complicates the calculus, as those patrons have their own stakes in controlling Red Sea trade routes.

The broader geopolitical stakes are stark. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and even China are deepening naval footprints and commercial investments along the Red Sea, seeking to offset the perceived vulnerability of Hormuz. Simultaneously, Egypt is covertly funding Ethiopian separatist groups to preserve its Nile water rights, adding another layer of strategic intrigue. For global businesses, the convergence of these dynamics signals heightened risk for shipping lanes that connect Europe, Asia and Africa. Companies should monitor diplomatic developments, diversify routing options, and consider insurance strategies that account for a potentially volatile Red Sea environment.