North-South Corridor Functioning Helped by Russian-Azerbaijani Thaw: Suspicion Mounts that Russia Is Using the Route to Ship Arms to Iran

Key Takeaways

• Russia‑Azerbaijan relations thawed in March 2024
• North‑South corridor now fully operational
• Western agencies suspect arms shipments to Iran
• Azerbaijan’s U.S. trade fell 11% in 2025
• Baku balances ties with Russia, U.S., and Israel

Pulse Analysis

The International North‑South Transport Corridor links Russia’s Caspian ports to Iran’s Persian Gulf outlets, offering a land‑based alternative to the vulnerable Red Sea lanes. After a fatal 2024 airliner incident soured ties, a high‑level meeting in Baku on March 2 resolved the dispute and revived diplomatic goodwill. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk publicly praised Azerbaijan’s role in keeping the western branch functional, signaling Moscow’s intent to secure a reliable logistics backbone for trade and, potentially, strategic shipments.

U.S. and EU intelligence reports released in late March allege that the same corridor is now ferrying Russian‑made drones, ammunition, and humanitarian aid to Iran. If confirmed, the flow would enable Tehran to sustain its drone‑counter‑attack campaign against Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf, complicating existing sanctions regimes. Western officials warn that the covert supply line could erode the effectiveness of economic pressure on Moscow and Tehran, prompting calls for tighter monitoring of Caspian‑based freight and shadow‑fleet movements.

Azerbaijan finds itself walking a diplomatic tightrope. While it signed a U.S. strategic partnership charter earlier this year and maintains security cooperation with Israel, its trade with Washington slipped to just under $1.6 billion in 2025, an 11 percent decline, and fell another 25 percent in the first two months of 2026. The modest economic returns appear to outweigh the geopolitical benefits of aligning with the West, leading Baku to prioritize the lucrative North‑South route. Observers predict that Azerbaijan’s neutral stance will persist unless Western incentives improve or the corridor’s illicit use becomes undeniable.