Europe Braces as US Returns to Munich Security Conference

Why It Matters

The shift underscores a fragile transatlantic relationship that could reshape defense markets and influence Europe’s strategic autonomy, while China’s outreach may accelerate a multipolar balance of power.

Key Takeaways

• US delegation signals renewed transatlantic engagement
• Munich Security Index labels US higher risk than last year
• China intensifies diplomatic outreach to EU capitals
• Europe eyes diversification of defense procurement
• Rubio's visits target Hungary and Slovakia, euro‑skeptics

Pulse Analysis

The United States’ latest National Security Strategy signals a more assertive, sometimes unilateral, posture that has unsettled long‑standing allies. By sending Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Munich, Washington aims to reassure European partners and protect its defense export market, which remains a cornerstone of U.S. strategic influence. Yet the stark rise in the Munich Security Index’s risk rating for the U.S. highlights lingering doubts about American commitment to NATO and shared security norms.

At the same time, China is exploiting the transatlantic rift, deploying high‑level diplomatic missions to the United Kingdom, France, Finland and, notably, Hungary and Slovakia. This outreach dovetails with Beijing’s broader push for a “European strategic autonomy” that reduces reliance on U.S. military hardware. European leaders, facing budget constraints and supply‑chain concerns, are increasingly evaluating Chinese and domestic alternatives, a trend that could reshape the continent’s defense procurement landscape and dilute U.S. market share.

The Munich Security Conference will serve as a litmus test for these competing narratives. Delegates will gauge whether the U.S. can rebuild trust enough to retain its role as Europe’s primary security guarantor, or if China’s diplomatic overtures will accelerate a shift toward a more pluralistic security architecture. Outcomes from the conference—particularly any concrete agreements on defense cooperation or joint statements on strategic autonomy—will signal the direction of transatlantic relations for the coming decade.

Europe braces as US returns to Munich Security Conference

Credit: Maxim Elramsisy/Shutterstock.com

• The emergence of a New World Order resultant from a radical shift in US policy has left Europe geopolitically adrift.

• China will seek to capitalise on the growing gap between the US and Europe, with its diplomatic red carpet well‑trod in recent weeks.

• The risk perception of the US has worsened dramatically in the last 12 months, according to the Munich Security Index.

Arriving as the harbinger of a New American Imperialism, the return of a US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio to the Munich Security Conference (MSC) later this week will form the theatrical centre of a debate beginning to shape the geopolitical future of Europe.

China will make a pitch for Europe to shift away from Washington and continue a diplomatic blitz by Beijing attempting to separate London, Paris, and Berlin from the US’s orbit. Beijing has already welcomed the leaders of the UK, France and Finland, among others, in recent months.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will visit China at the end of February.

This growing shift is perhaps an unintended consequence for US policy towards Europe, which was clearly laid out in the recent [National Security Strategy](https://www.army-technology.com/features/top-5-highlights-from-the-us-national-defense-strategy/).

What will be even less palatable for the US is a clear desire for many European countries to reduce their reliance on US military equipment. The European Union, along with the UK, are key markets for US defence suppliers, providing capabilities across the land, sea, air and space domains.

This will be a concern for US President Donald Trump, who wants to ensure Europe retains its need for American arms, a position no doubt mirrored by the US defence sector.

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What tone the US delegation will take is unknown, but its arrival in Europe will be met with much more scepticism than 12 months ago, when Vice President JD Vance shocked the world with an [excoriating speech](https://www.army-technology.com/comment/us-lectures-europe-in-tirade-that-undermines-nato-foundations/) that cast the US’s commitment to NATO in doubt.

US Vice President JD Vance made headlines with his speech at the MSC in 2025. Credit: Steve Travelguide/Shutterstock.com

Since then, the US has pursued an agenda of aggressive unilateralism, seizing Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in [Operation Absolute Resolve](https://www.army-technology.com/features/what-us-aircraft-were-used-in-operation-absolute-resolve/) and building up a [huge military force](https://www.army-technology.com/features/us-monitor-persian-gulf-after-considerable-military-build-up/) in the Middle East in a bid to pressure Iran into a new nuclear deal.

A series of [global sanctions](https://www.army-technology.com/news/tariff-watch-china-retaliates-allied-companies-brace-for-impact/) by the US on friends and foes alike have left [relationships in tatters](https://www.army-technology.com/analyst-comment/europe-should-stop-considering-us-as-ally/).

Elsewhere, and already falling into the background noise for the US, is the [Ukraine‑Russia war](https://www.army-technology.com/news/in-data-ukraine-increasingly-reliant-on-domestic-defence-industry/), which will in two weeks’ time mark its fourth anniversary since Moscow’s full‑scale invasion. Reports indicate that the US will want to impose a ceasefire, or peace deal, in the summer, to coincide with the 250th anniversary of the formation of the United States.

That, or secure the acquisition – even annexation – of [Greenland](https://www.army-technology.com/features/denmark-grows-military-presence-in-greenland-with-little-nato-help/).

Munich Security Index: US “a more serious risk”

Timed to release just ahead of the start of the Munich Security Conference (MSC), the Munich Security Report set the stage for the coming event, which was taking place at a moment of “profound uncertainty”, according to Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the MSC.

“For generations, US allies were not just able to rely on American power but on a broadly shared understanding of the principles underpinning the international order. Today, this appears far less certain, raising difficult questions about the future shape of transatlantic and international cooperation,”

— Wolfgang Ischinger, foreword of the report

Detailed in the MSC’s pre‑event Munich Security Index (MSI), which canvassed extensively for its survey results, respondents across nearly all the G7 and BICS countries – except Japan and China – now see the US as “a more serious risk” than last year.

Credit: Munich Security Conference/Kekst CNC

This represented a continuation of a trend that was “already evident” in last year’s edition of the MSC after President Donald Trump’s election, when perceptions of the seriousness of the US as a risk “surged”, the Index stated.

That US Secretary of State Rubio is tagging on visits to Slovakia and Hungary, both led by euro‑sceptic, pro‑Russian administrations, after the MSC is telling.

• Slovakia will benefit from efforts to “support Slovakia’s military modernisation”.

• Hungary was said to “share [US] commitment to peace processes”, wrote the US State Department on 9 February.

Hungary President Viktor Orban maintains strong relations with Russia, as Moscow seeks to impose a favourable peace deal in Ukraine.

Similarly, Slovakia Prime Minister Robert Fico has often questioned European sanctions on Russia and frequently opposed sending aid to Ukraine.

Notable is the decision by the Chinese delegation heading to the MSC, which will be led by Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi, to visit Hungary on 11 February, before heading to Germany to deliver a speech.

The [Munich Security Conference](https://securityconference.org/en/) will take place from 13–15 February.