Europe Can Lead Its Conventional Defense ‘by 2035’, EUCOM Commander Says

Why It Matters

A European lead by 2035 would shift NATO burden‑sharing, reducing U.S. long‑term commitments and reshaping transatlantic security dynamics.

Key Takeaways

• EUCOM commander predicts European lead by 2035
• Only a few NATO members already meet 5% GDP target
• Industrial base lagging; modernization will take years
• US troop drawdown limited to one brigade in Romania
• NATO air‑missile defense plan revision due summer

Pulse Analysis

European defense spending has accelerated since the war in Ukraine, with several NATO members already meeting the alliance’s 5 percent of GDP benchmark. This fiscal momentum reflects a broader strategic calculus: European capitals are seeking greater autonomy to deter regional threats without relying exclusively on U.S. forces. Analysts view the 2035 timeline as a realistic horizon, given current budget trajectories and the political will to sustain higher defense allocations across the continent.

However, budget increases alone do not guarantee immediate capability parity. The European defense industrial base, fragmented across national programs, lags behind U.S. and allied production capacities. Modernizing legacy platforms, fielding next‑generation air‑defense systems, and integrating joint logistics networks will require sustained investment and cross‑border cooperation for years. Meanwhile, the United States has only modestly adjusted its posture, withdrawing a single brigade combat team from Romania, signaling a cautious approach that balances deterrence with domestic pressure to reallocate resources to the Indo‑Pacific.

The upcoming revision of NATO’s standing air‑and‑missile‑defense plan, expected this summer, underscores the alliance’s commitment to collective security while adapting to evolving threat environments. A European‑led conventional defense by 2035 could reshape transatlantic burden‑sharing, allowing the U.S. to trim its permanent footprint and focus on emerging challenges. Yet, the transition hinges on political consensus within Europe, the speed of industrial revitalization, and the ability to maintain credible deterrence against a resurgent Russia.