Guidance: Future Operating Environments 2040

Why It Matters

FOEs 2040 equips defence leaders with scenario‑based insights essential for shaping resilient force structures amid accelerating geopolitical and technological change. Its cross‑sector relevance helps align national security priorities with allied and industry capabilities.

Key Takeaways

• Evidence‑led assessment of defence operating environment to 2040
• Highlights global drivers, disruptors, and emerging actors
• Supports strategic planning, force design, and capability development
• Relevant to UK defence, NATO, allies, industry, academia
• Aligns with Strategic Defence Review 2025 conclusions

Pulse Analysis

Long‑term defence planning increasingly depends on systematic foresight rather than reactive measures. FOEs 2040 exemplifies this shift by synthesising open‑source intelligence, expert interviews and scenario modelling to chart plausible futures up to 2040. The publication’s evidence‑based methodology helps policymakers cut through the noise of short‑term crises, offering a structured way to evaluate risk, allocate resources and prioritize capability gaps. By anchoring strategic discussions in data‑driven narratives, it reinforces the Ministry of Defence’s commitment to transparent, accountable decision‑making.

Key trends identified in FOEs 2040 include rapid technological diffusion, intensified great‑power competition, hybrid warfare tactics and climate‑driven security pressures. These drivers demand a more agile, network‑centric force architecture that can operate across contested, cyber‑dominant and multi‑domain environments. The guidance suggests revisiting traditional platform‑centric models in favour of modular, interoperable systems that can be reconfigured as threats evolve. Moreover, it underscores the importance of joint training, AI‑enabled decision tools and resilient logistics to maintain operational effectiveness under uncertain conditions.

For NATO allies, industry partners and academic researchers, FOEs 2040 serves as a common reference point for collaborative capability development. Its scenario catalogue can inform joint exercises, procurement roadmaps and research agendas, ensuring that investments are future‑proofed against a range of plausible threats. By linking to related publications such as Global Strategic Trends 2055, the guidance encourages a holistic view of security that integrates economic, technological and environmental dimensions. Ultimately, FOEs 2040 aims to embed strategic agility into the UK’s defence posture, helping the nation stay ahead of emerging challenges while strengthening alliance cohesion.