How Will the Iran War Change the Middle East? We Asked 5 Experts

Why It Matters

The war threatens to redraw power balances, disrupt worldwide energy supplies, and force regional actors to reconsider alliances, making its outcomes pivotal for global stability and markets.

Key Takeaways

• US‑Israel strike triggers Iran’s widespread retaliation.
• Strait of Hormuz shutdown threatens global energy supply.
• Lebanon faces Israeli ground invasion amid Hezbollah clashes.
• Experts predict long‑term realignment of Gulf state security.
• Post‑war reconstruction will demand new regional institutions.

Pulse Analysis

The February 28 joint operation by the United States and Israel marked a dramatic escalation in the long‑standing rivalry with Tehran. Within days, Iranian forces struck U.S. installations across the Persian Gulf and launched missile attacks on Israeli cities, while Israel responded with a ground incursion into southern Lebanon to counter Hezbollah fire. The rapid expansion of hostilities has produced a casualty toll in the thousands, predominantly in Iran and Lebanon, and has forced regional capitals to reassess their security postures amid an unpredictable battlefield.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil passes, has sent shockwaves through energy markets. Spot prices spiked as tankers rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, inflating shipping costs and prompting governments to tap strategic petroleum reserves. Analysts warn that even a brief disruption can accelerate inflationary pressures worldwide and reshape investment in alternative energy sources. The immediate supply crunch underscores how tightly the global economy is linked to Middle Eastern maritime chokepoints, making any prolonged conflict a systemic risk.

Beyond the battlefield, scholars anticipate a reshaping of regional alliances. Iran’s ability to project power may compel Gulf monarchies to deepen security cooperation with external powers such as the United States, Europe, or even China, while Israel’s northern front could spur new diplomatic overtures toward Arab states seeking stability. Post‑war reconstruction will likely require multilateral institutions focused on governance, infrastructure, and de‑mining, a task that could redefine the role of international organizations in the Middle East. The conflict therefore serves as a catalyst for both immediate disruption and long‑term strategic realignment.