Iran Secures Cessation of US Attacks – But the War Goes On

Why It Matters

The ceasefire’s uneven enforcement threatens the free flow of Gulf oil, a linchpin of global energy markets, and could trigger a wider conflict that reshapes regional power balances.

Key Takeaways

• US and Israel halted attacks on Iran during ceasefire
• Iran kept striking oil infrastructure in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar
• Gulf states maintain limited tanker traffic, paying ~$2 million VLCC toll
• UAE drones hit Larak and Sirri islands, escalating regional tension
• GCC fears Hormuz restrictions could jeopardize national oil survival

Pulse Analysis

The US‑Iran ceasefire brokered by Pakistan marked the first day without American or Israeli strikes on Iranian territory. While the lull was celebrated in Washington, satellite and open‑source reports showed Tehran persisting with attacks on oil and infrastructure in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. A hit on Saudi’s East‑West pipeline pumping station demonstrated Iran’s willingness to disrupt crude flows that bypass the Gulf for Red Sea export. The asymmetry—U.S. restraint versus Iranian aggression—has already reshaped diplomatic calculations across the region.

Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains the flashpoint. Marine Traffic data confirmed only a handful of tankers passed the Larak toll booth on April 8, each paying roughly $2 million for a VLCC transit, while the main traffic lanes stayed empty. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, which have not signed the cease‑fire, view any Iranian‑led restriction as an existential threat to their oil revenues. Oman’s brief social‑media hint of a joint protocol was quickly retracted, underscoring the lack of consensus among Gulf nations.

The renewed UAE drone strikes on Larak and Sirri islands signal a broader escalation beyond the US‑Iran dyad. With Iran’s air defenses largely cleared, GCC air forces now have freer strike options, raising the risk of a wider conflagration that could choke global oil supplies. Market participants are watching for sudden fee hikes or outright closures of Hormuz, which would push crude prices higher and force shippers to reroute around Africa. The ceasefire’s fragility therefore carries outsized implications for energy security and regional stability.