Pakistan Shouldn’t Put All of Its Guns in China’s Basket

Why It Matters

Diversifying defence suppliers limits Pakistan’s strategic dependence on China and enhances its naval self‑reliance, strengthening regional security posture. The shift also positions Pakistan to contribute more actively to a multipolar security environment.

Key Takeaways

• China supplies ~80% of Pakistan's military imports.
• Pakistan plans $5 billion submarine deal with China.
• Turkey provides co‑production and tech transfer for naval vessels.
• MILGEM corvettes built jointly in Istanbul and Karachi.
• Turkey's unmanned naval systems outpace China's innovation.

Pulse Analysis

Pakistan’s defence procurement has become increasingly lopsided, with China delivering the bulk of its weapons and a high‑profile $5 billion submarine contract underscoring that reliance. While Chinese shipyards excel in volume and cost‑efficiency, the concentration of supply creates strategic risks, especially as the global order tilts toward a new bipolarity. Islamabad’s leadership recognizes that a single‑source approach hampers flexibility, prompting a search for alternative partners that can provide both capability and leverage in diplomatic negotiations.

Turkey emerges as a compelling counterweight, offering a blend of quality‑focused technology and collaborative production models. Through the MILGEM program, Pakistan will receive two corvettes built in Istanbul and two in Karachi, fostering domestic shipbuilding expertise. Turkish firms have already upgraded Pakistan’s Agosta‑90B submarines and designed the PNS Moawin tanker, while showcasing cutting‑edge unmanned platforms such as the Bayraktar TB3 and the world’s first drone carrier, TCG Anadolu. These assets not only diversify Pakistan’s fleet but also integrate NATO‑standard systems like Link‑16, enhancing interoperability with a broader set of allies.

The strategic pivot toward Turkey carries broader implications for South Asian security. By reducing over‑dependence on Beijing, Pakistan can negotiate more balanced foreign‑policy choices and avoid being caught in great‑power rivalry. A diversified naval portfolio also bolsters deterrence, enabling Pakistan to protect its maritime interests in the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean with indigenous and allied capabilities. In the long run, this approach could stimulate a nascent defence industrial base, encouraging local innovation and creating a more resilient, multipolar security architecture in the region.